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Morning Brew: November 30, 2020 U.S PORTFOLIO STRATEGY | PUBLISHED BY RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy | (901) NOVEMBER 30, 2020 | 8:42 AM EST 579-4346 | [email protected] Joey Madere, CFA | (901) 529-5331 | [email protected] Richard Sewell, CFA | (901) 524-4194 | [email protected] Mitch Clayton, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst | (901) 579-4812 | [email protected] Morning Brew: November 30, 2020 U.S. FUTURES (BRIEFING.COM) The S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, below fair value following last week's record-setting performance, while investors review more vaccine news and M&A activity that have helped futures rebound off prior lows. Briefly, Moderna (MRNA 141.22, +14.19, +11.2%) said it will request emergency use authorization from the FDA for its COVID-19 vaccine, which had an efficacy rate of 94.1% in its Phase 3 study; and S&P Global (SPGI 333.00, -8.57, -2.5%) agreed to merge with IHS Markit (INFO 96.76, +4.18, +4.5%) in an all-stock transaction that values IHS at an enterprise value of $44 billion. Some negative-sounding news holding the market back, though, include U.S. COVID-19 hospitalizations hitting another record high and the Trump administration aiming to add China's SMIC and CNOOC to a defense blacklist, according to Reuters. Note, these aren't that big of a deal for the market that is optimistic about the 2021 economy and trade policy under a Biden administration. Today's economic data will consist of the Chicago PMI for November (Briefing.com consensus 58.1%) at 9:45 a.m. ET and Pending Home Sales for October (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. U.S. Treasuries trade near their flat lines. The 2-yr yield is flat at 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 91.64. WTI crude futures are down 0.9% to $45.13/bbl. U.S equity futures: ● S&P 500 Futures -9 @ 3628 ● DJIA Futures -140 @ 29734 ● Nasdaq Futures +31 @ 12288 . Overseas: Sources: Briefing.com, FactSet, Raymond James Research, ● Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE -0.3%, CAC -0.5% Raymond James Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy ● Asia: Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng -2.1%, Shanghai -0.5% INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: THE RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL CENTER | 880 CARILLON PARKWAY | ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA 33716 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY . Source: FactSet and RJ Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy In U.S. Corporate news: ● Moderna (MRNA 141.22, +14.19): +11.2% after announcing it plans to request emergency use authorization from the FDA for its COVID-19 vaccine, which had a 94.1% efficacy rate. ● S&P Global (SPGI 333.00, -8.57): -2.5% after agreeing to merge with IHS Markit (INFO 96.76, +4.18, +4.5%) in an all-stock transaction that values IHS at an enterprise value of $44 billion. ● Adient (ADNT 33.29, +1.31): +4.1% after beating EPS estimates. Today’s U.S. Economic Data (Briefing.com)) ● 09:45 ET: Chicago PMI for November (Briefing.com Consensus 58.1%; Prior 61.1%) ● 10:00 ET: Pending Home Sales for October (Briefing.com Consensus 1.0%; Prior -2.2%) OVERSEAS OVERNIGHT SUMMARY (BRIEFING.COM) Reviewing overnight developments: ● Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a lower note while markets in India were closed for Guru Nanak Jayanti. Japan's Nikkei: -0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%, India's Sensex: CLOSED, South Korea's Kospi: -1.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.1%. ○ In economic data: – China's November Manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 51.5; last 51.4) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (expected 56.0; last 56.2) – Japan's October Industrial Production 3.8% m/m (last 3.9%) and October Retail Sales 6.4% yr/yr (expected -7.7%; last -8.7%). October Housing Starts -8.3% yr/yr (expected -8.6%; last -9.9%) and Construction Orders -0.1% yr/yr (last -10.6%) PAGE 2 OF 7 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY – South Korea's October Industrial Production -1.2% m/m (expected -1.0%; last 5.5%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -2.5%; last 8.0%). October Retail Sales -0.9% m/m (last 1.7%) – Australia's October Housing Credit 0.3% m/m (last 0.4%) and Private Sector Credit 0.0% m/m (last 0.0%). Q3 Business Inventories -0.5% qtr/qtr (expected -0.7%; last -2.9%) and Q3 Company Gross Operating Profits 3.2% qtr/qtr (expected 4.5%; last 15.8%) ○ In news: – A lawmaker from Japan's ruling party said that the third extra budget, which is currently being prepared, may not be the last set of spending measures before the end of the fiscal year. – Ant Group's IPO will reportedly be postponed past 2021 due to a "massive" overhaul. – The People's Bank of China conducted a CNY200 bln liquidity operation, but the medium-term landing facility rate remained at 2.95%. ● Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while Germany's DAX outperforms, sitting just above its flat line. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH, Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3%, France's CAC 40: -0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.9%. ○ In economic data: – U.K.'s October Mortgage Lending GBP4.29 bln (expected GBP4.46 bln; last GBP4.86 bln) and net Lending to Individuals GBP3.70 bln (expected GBP4.70 bln; last GBP4.20 bln) – Italy's November CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.2%); -0.2% yr/yr (expected -0.4%; last -0.3%) – Spain's September Current Account surplus EUR300 mln (last surplus of EUR1.35 bln). November CPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.5%); -0.8% yr/ yr (last -0.8%) – Swiss October Retail Sales 3.1% yr/yr (last 0.4%) and November KOF Leading Indicators 103.5 (expected 101.0; last 106.3) ○ In news: – European Central Bank Vice President, Luis de Guindos, said that he expects prices in the eurozone to continue dropping in 2020 before a modest rebound in 2021. – Germany's Economy Minister said that the country's lockdown measures could be extended into the spring. – Brexit trade negotiations are expected to continue this week with a hope of a deal being completed by Friday. STOCK HEADLINES (BRIEFING.COM) Earnings/Guidance: ● Adient (ADNT) beats by $0.56 ● Autohome (ATHM) beats by $0.11, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus ● CIGNA (CI) to reaffirm 2020 and 2021 guidance at upcoming meetings with investors ● Corning (GLW) expects "strong" sales and earnings growth in the fourth quarter ● Corsair Gaming (CRSR) raises FY20 guidance ● CureVac (CVAC) reports Q3 results and provides vaccine updates ● JetBlue Airways (JBLU) provides Q4 updates - expects revenue to decrease ~70% (prior guidance down 65%) ● NJ Resources (NJR) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; provides strategic update ● OrganiGram (OGI) misses by CAD 0.17, reports revs in-line ● Shopify (SHOP) reports Black Friday sales increased 75% yr/yr to $2.4 bln General News: PAGE 3 OF 7 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY ● US COVID-19 hospitalizations hit record high; cases fall due to slow Holiday weekend reporting; overall case mortality rate since pandemic began drops below 2% for the first time ever ● House will vote Wednesday on bipartisan bill that would impose restrictions on Chinese companies that are listed on exchanges in US. Congress must pass government funding bill by December 11 to avoid shutdown as President Trump has threatened veto of defense funding bill, according to Bloomberg ● Iran threatened to retaliate for assassination of top nuclear scientist and blamed Israel, according to the NewYorkTimes ● Black Friday online shopping increased 22% to $9 bln, according to CNBC ● Dr. Anthony Fauci says US could "see a surge upon a surge" of coronavirus cases and it is not likely restrictions in certain areas will be relaxed ahead of the Christmas holiday, according to BCNews ● NYC to reopen public elementary schools starting December 7, according to the NewYorkTimes ● Los Angeles prohibits all public and private gatherings except for religious services and protests to slow spread of coronavirus, according to the LTimes ● Joe Biden will nominate Cecilia Rouse as his chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, according to the WallStreetJournal ● OPEC+ aiming to discuss whether to extend existing oil cuts for 3-4 months or to gradually increase production, according to Reuters ● UK to ban Huawei Technologies installation of 5G equipment in September, according to Bloomberg ● China is preparing to restart cruise ship industry, according to the WallStreetJournal ● AirBnb wants valuation of $30-33 bln while Doordash wants a valuation of $25-28 bln, according to the WallStreetJournal ● Anavex (AVXL) announces notice of allowance for U.S. patent application with expanding claims covering Anavex for the treatment of rett syndrome and other neurodevelopmental disorders ● Applied DNA Sciences (APDN) DNA, EvviVax, and GVS receive regulatory approval to conduct veterinary clinical trial for linear COVID-19 vaccine candidate ● AstraZeneca (AZN) receives approval in Japan for Forxiga ● Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL) announces publication of new AUTO6 Phase 1 data in childhood neuroblastoma in Science Translational Medicine ● BioCryst Pharma (BCRX): Allergy publishes results from BioCryst’s APeX-J trial of oral, once-daily Berotralstat for the Prevention of HAE Attacks ● Blue Apron (APRN) names Charlean Gmunder Chief Operating Officer ● China Automotive (CAAS) has shipped about 120,000 units from its portfolio of electric power steering products for use in Chinese electric vehicles during 2020 ● Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH) completes target enrollment in the INTRIGUE Phase 3 clinical study evaluating the efficacy and safety of QINLOCK ● DraftKings (DKNG) and Detroit Pistons announce new deal, making the sports
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