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Traditional Ad Market Benefits from Adjusting to a New Normal

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Traditional Ad Market Benefits from Adjusting to a New Normal INITIAL REPORT Rachel Dangermond, [email protected], 504.309.2116 Traditional Ad Market Benefits from Adjusting to a New Normal Companies: AAPL, ARB, CBS, CMCSA, CMLS, DIS, DISCA, GCI, GOOG, NLSN, NWS, NYT, RENT, SBGI, SNI, TWC, TWX, VCI, VIA, WPO March 22, 2012 Research Questions: What is the current state of the traditional advertising industry, and what trends are emerging for network TV and local media in 2012? Silo Summaries Summary of Findings 1) MEDIA BUYERS Suppliers and buyers in the local markets were markedly optimistic These 11 sources—five in network TV/cable, four in the for the first time in four years. However, most agree they have local spot market, and two in out-of-home—are optimistic and reported greater ad spending in most adjusted to a new “normal” in traditional advertising. categories except telecom. National advertisers are Broadcast networks such as CBS Corp. (CBS) and News Corp.’s spending more on network and less in local markets, (NWS) Fox should benefit from another strong upfront season. Top while local advertisers have proven to be stable. Most advertisers are planning product launches, expansion cable companies like Time Warner Inc. (TWX) and Comcast Corp.’s and growth this year and beyond. Although the digital (CMCSA) NBCUniversal could see a higher percentage of growth front is imminent, sources expect little to no share than in the last few years. shifts in the media pie for 2012. Silos on the agency and client side continue to be impediments to planning The soft scatter market should lower CPM rate hikes year to year. and buying across all screens. TV and its advertising dollars are not going anywhere as the future belongs to interactive TV. 2) MEDIA SELLERS The digital transformation is affecting all media but at a glacial These 10 sources—four in local TV, three in newspapers, and three in out-of-home—said the trend pace. Traditional advertising still commands the bulk of ad for spot TV is to have ownership of the three screens: spending. TV’s next game changer will come in the form of mobile console, computer and mobile devices. However, digital and interactive TV. Meanwhile, network online video spending media is taking incremental share from the overall TV allocations remain paltry but are expected to grow. budgets. The local markets are adjusting to a new normal. Still, sources are more optimistic than they have been in four years. The local market saw new business, and national advertisers such as auto and retail have come back into the local markets. Political 2012 vs. Ad Budgets Rates ad spending has not delivered on expectations yet. 2011 Daily newspapers are seeing better year-to-year growth, and are rising off their secular and cyclical bottom. Media Buyers Classified spending is up, and package pricing is keeping advertiser dollars from migrating to other media. Efficiency and low cost have made out-of-home Media Sellers attractive again and a must-buy for many local advertisers. Measurement in the out-of-home industry is expected to be a boon for the medium. Suppliers are Industry Specialists expanding their digital offerings to meet demand. Advertisers 3) INDUSTRY SPECIALISTS The three screens—console, computer and mobile—are being addressed at every level in every medium. Although organic growth for most mediums will go to digital advertising, these five sources reported a strong adherence to traditional advertising. Daily newspapers are averaging single to double-digit margins, while low single-digit growth will be the norm for core spot TV, radio and out-of-home. 4) ADVERTISERS These three sources were mixed as to what local mediums were most effective for advertisers. Some industries are following their consumers and migrating online. Others have retained a brick-and-mortar presence and use traditional media. 1 321 Pacific Ave., San Francisco, CA 94111 | www.blueshiftideas.com Traditional Media Advertising Background Eighty percent of network advertising is bought in the upfront market, which takes place around Memorial Day. Twenty percent of network spending is done throughout the year in the scatter market. Scatter spending has been weak since the 2011–2012 upfront market, while local markets are in recovery mode from the downturn with no discernible geographic pattern of strength or weakness. The local spot market is in the height of its two-year cycle that bounces back and forth between political and nonpolitical years. Newspaper advertising has been looking for its bottom, and out-of-home is trying to move occupancy up in order to increase prices. CURRENT RESEARCH Blueshift set out to assess whether upfront advertisers have diverted spending back to scatter for the upcoming season, whether digital upfront will alter the May marketplace, and whether local advertising has recovered and is normalizing. We employed our pattern mining approach to establish and interview sources in five independent silos: 1) Media buyers (11) 2) Media sellers (10) 3) Industry specialists (5) 4) Advertisers (3) 5) Secondary sources (4) We spoke with 29 primary sources and included four of the most relevant secondary sources focused on advertising trends. Silos 1) MEDIA BUYERS These 11 sources—five in network TV/cable, four in the local spot market, and two in out-of-home—are optimistic and reported greater ad spending in most categories except telecom. National advertisers are spending more on network and less in local markets, while local advertisers have proven to be stable. Most advertisers are planning product launches, expansion and growth this year and beyond. Although the digital front is imminent, sources expect little to no share shifts in the media pie for 2012. Silos on the agency and client side continue to be impediments to planning and buying across all screens. Network TV/cable media negotiator for a top-five agency The network TV market remains strong after outperforming most media during the downturn. The weak scatter market is a reflection of advertisers rolling up Viacom is more aggressively their scatter dollars into their upfront budgets in 2011–2012. The source said seeking business because its rate hikes will not be as high as they were last year. Advertising spending for the audience ratings are up and it entire 2012–2013 TV season should be up in the low single digits year to year, has more GRPs to sell. with most gains going to cable. “Scatter is slow because a lot of the money was rolled up into the Network TV/cable Media Negotiator upfront last year.” Top-five Agency . “This upfront will be slower; it’s not quite as strong as last year. Prime- time, cable and some bigger dayparts could be up 20%.” . “This year will look at a lot like last year, but don’t expect rates to be up as high as last year.” . “Viacom [Inc./VIA] is more aggressively seeking business because its audience ratings are up and it has more GRPs to sell.” . “Discovery [Communications Inc./DISCA]’s more-jubilant-than-expected quarter sounds a lot like pre-upfront positioning.” . “The automotive category is still spending nationally.” . “Soft drinks are starting to spend more nationally, and fast food is as well. Both categories need efficiency.” . “There is not much happening in syndication right now. Very few people target syndication after the upfront is over. Most of the inventory is used for ADUs [audience deficiency units] because most of the time they 2 321 Pacific Ave., San Francisco, CA 94111 | www.blueshiftideas.com Traditional Media Advertising overestimate their delivery. But syndication rides with broadcast and cable, and it jumps to the higher tide if there is one.” Discovery’s more-jubilant-than- . “Inclusion of digital properties in the upfront buy is sometimes planned, and sometimes it is up to the individual negotiator. About 5% to 10% of expected quarter sounds a lot the budget goes toward digital properties. A lot of clients used it as ADU like pre-upfront positioning. at the same CPM for multiple screens.” Network TV/Cable Media Negotiator . “We do very minimal buying of TV Everywhere.” Top-five Agency . “Hulu [a joint venture between NBCUniversal, News Corp. and The Walt Disney Co./DIS] and [Disney’s] ABC full screen can come up impressions of what is a commercial load, and we are told after the fact.” . “Hulu is one of the fair-headed children right now. … On Hulu a CPM costs $45, but with total impressions it winds up being $90 per CPM. Is it worth it? Yes, when the commercial load was minimal, but now they’ve increased the load. I don’t have a problem as long as the CPM reflects it and it doesn’t.” . “There are more set-top boxes that we can get ratings from than just depending on Nielsen [Holding N.V./NLSN]. But until someone big says no to Nielsen, we’re stuck with them as the index.” Network TV/cable buyer for a top-five media agency This year’s upfront spending will be up but conservatively. The source cited significant turf battles between TV buying and digital teams. Spending will need to expand to include all screens, but TV will continue to claim most ad dollars. Ninety percent of syndication inventory is sold in the upfront. General syndication follows the trends of prime-time, getting pricing slightly under the average sold in broadcast. “Our projections are far more conservative. We brought down our totals for cable to 5% to 6% when we had projected high single digits last year.” . “This year’s total upfront dollars [broadcast and cable] will be up in the low single digits, with cable up in the high single digits.” . “There is resounding feedback that all broadcast inventory in scatter is being sold at flat to upfront; maybe some inventory is up a few points.” .
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