Special Issue: How Southeast Asia Is Sizing up Trump's Election Victory
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ISSUE: 2016 No. 66 ISSN 2335-6677 RESEARCHERS AT ISEAS – YUSOF ISHAK INSTITUTE ANALYSE CURRENT EVENTS Singapore | 8 December 2016 Special Issue: How Southeast Asia is Sizing Up Trump’s Election Victory Daljit Singh, Le Hong Hiep, Malcolm Cook, Mustafa Izzuddin, Michael J. Montesano, Ulla Fionna & Ye Htut EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Donald Trump’s success in US presidential elections is unsettling for Southeast Asia because little is known about his views on Asia. What is known of his opinions on free trade agreements (FTAs) and Islam is disconcerting. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) signatories (Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam) were understandably concerned about US’ withdrawal from the 12-nation economic pact. However, the Southeast Asian signatories still harbour guarded optimism that Trump will not dismiss the TPP in its entirety. Trump’s inward turn to strengthening the US would deprive the region of an important means of balancing its relations with China. The TPP setback is viewed as early signs of US “disinterest” in the region. Trump’s victory has seen the weakening of regional currencies. His “America First” focus has raised fears of less US trade and investment in the region. The Philippines is especially concerned with a slow-down in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. At the same time, it has been pointed out that US firms are not sensitive to political factors and the weakened regional currencies may in fact make Southeast Asia more attractive for US investments. The new administration is expected to adopt a “transactional” approach to regional affairs, putting human rights and democracy on the backburner. Downplaying these divisive issues would provide an opening for improving US relations with the Philippines and Thailand. Trump’s strident views on Islam will complicate US ties with Indonesia and Malaysia, and undermine popular support of the US in these two Muslim majority nations. 1 ISSUE: 2016 No. 66 ISSN 2335-6677 INTRODUCTION1 Every four years, Southeast Asia finds itself spellbound by the US presidential elections. This year’s election, which ended just a few weeks ago, was especially captivating for its political twists and turns. In the wake of the 8 November elections, Southeast Asia’s sights shifted from the intrigues of US political drama to grappling with the uncertainties of policies and strategic outlook of the 45th President of the United States of America. Going by the adage that “when America sneezes, Asia catches a cold,” the incoming administration will have a big influence in the region’s unfolding story. For starters, the US- led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is in tatters as its 11 signatories scramble to salvage what was once touted as the “gold standard” of free trade agreements. This has sent shockwaves throughout the region, which has grown accustomed to taking US engagement as a given. For a great many, the prospect of an inward-looking and protectionist America is not only unthinkable but also irrational. It might do irreparable damage to US’ long-standing and deep interests in the region, ranging from trade to security. To be sure, US engagement in Southeast Asia is not without its detractors, and like all relationships, it does suffer the occasional hiccups. However, on balance, Southeast Asia prefers an engaged partner to a distant and disinterested US as evident in this Special Issue of ISEAS Perspective covering official views and media reports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. These snapshots which cover the responses in the first two weeks following the US presidential elections also speak to the diverse views and concerns vis-à-vis US’ regional role, ranging from the economy, democratisation, China, Islamophobia, and counter-terrorism. INDONESIA: CONCERNS OVER HOSTILITY AND UNCERTAINTY Ulla Fionna2 The victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton for the US presidency ignited reactions in Indonesia, which can generally be summarised as concerns over hostility and uncertainty. Both the media and the people voiced the same sentiments, conveying anxieties about what Trump administration would do, and how that would affect Indonesia overall, its economy, and Muslims in general. At the diplomatic level, efforts were being made to maintain the good relations that the two countries enjoyed during Obama’s presidency. While Indonesia would have preferred Clinton as Obama’s successor, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was quick to congratulate 1 This special issue was edited by Daljit Singh, Coordinator, Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme, and compiled by Tang Siew Mun, Senior Fellow, Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme. at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 2Ulla Fionna is Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 2 ISSUE: 2016 No. 66 ISSN 2335-6677 Trump on his victory, saying “On behalf of the Indonesian government and all the people, I convey my congratulations to president-elect Donald J. Trump”. Although Trump’s policies was the lesser-known of the two candidates’, Jokowi added that Indonesia was nonetheless ready to continue mutual cooperation with the US.3 Anxieties over his possibly hostile policies towards Muslims – which featured in his campaign – were quickly addressed by the foreign ministry which hastily encouraged Indonesians living in the US to show respect for the new president.4 US representatives to Indonesia were also swift in reassuring that relationship with Indonesia would be well-maintained.5 Beyond what transpired at the official level, there were concerns over what kind of president he would be, and how his administration would affect Indonesia. In particular, as its third largest export market, Trump’s possibly more protectionist US trade policies would have some effects on Indonesia. While analysts were quick in raising concerns over the decreasing demand for goods from Indonesia if the US were to push its own manufacturing and cut corporate tax, 6 others were quick to assuage the alarms, by pointing out that Indonesia would be much less affected compared to its regional peers, particularly as “trade is no longer a main source of growth”.7 Still, others have argued that China will be an important factor, as lower demand for China’s goods will also reduce China’s demand for raw materials from Indonesia.8 Yet overall, there is a consensus that Indonesia’s economy would be affected in some ways if the US implements more inward-focused economic policies. Beyond possible impacts on the economy, Trump personality is viewed in a negative light by Indonesians. In the world’s largest Muslim country, his election as a leader of the free world has created a strong sense of animosity towards Muslims in general. Indeed, what has attracted a lot of attention in Indonesia was some of his campaign rhetoric which included a ban on foreign Muslims entering the US and a sense that Muslims would face hard times 3 “Jokowi congratulates Trump”, The Jakarta Post, 9 November 2016, (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/11/09/jokowi-congratulates-trump.html), accessed 18 November 2016. 4 Safrin La Batu, “Indonesians in US told to honor next US president”, The Jakarta Post, 10 November 2016, (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/11/10/indonesians-in-us-told-to- honor-next-us-president.html), accessed 18 November 2016. 5 “US pledges to maintain relations with Indonesia”, The Jakarta Post, 9 November 2016, (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/11/09/us-pledges-to-maintain-relations-with- indonesia.html), accessed 18 November 2016. 6 Fiki Ariyanti, “Donald Trump Jadi Presiden, Ekspor ke AS Bakal Suram”, liputan6.com, 9 November 2016, (http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2647894/donald-trump-jadi-presiden-ekspor-ke- as-bakal-suram), accessed 21 November 2016. 7 Anton Hermansyah, “Trump’s protectionism will have limited effect on Indonesia: UOB”, The Jakarta Post, 10 November 2016, (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/11/10/trumps- protectionism-will-have-limited-effect-on-indonesia-uob.html), accessed 18 November 2016. 8 “Trump Menang, China Kena Imbas Pertama, Indonesia berikutnya”, Kompas.com, 10 November 2016, (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2016/11/10/073000026/trump.menang.china.kena.imbas. pertama.indonesia.berikutnya), accessed 21 November 2016. 3 ISSUE: 2016 No. 66 ISSN 2335-6677 under his presidency.9 Already, he has called for Muslims to be registered,10 prompting concerns over other possible policies that would stymie Muslims’ rights and civil liberties, and how the US would deal with Islam and Muslim countries. A leader of Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) has stated that “Trump will create new problems” due to his anti-Islam campaign oratory.11 Similar concerns are also apparent amongst Indonesians who are in touch with world politics, as some have voiced anxieties that the US will be suspicious and hostile towards Muslim countries and Muslims. As Indonesia has had a history of animosity with the US over its Middle East policy, Trump’s presidency may see a rise of an anti-US sentiment in the country. Indeed, the warm relationship enjoyed during Obama, who had some personal ties to Indonesia – would seem difficult to replicate. Thus, the US’ overall image amongst Indonesians is also in danger of deteriorating with the new US president. 12 Despite the overall negative perception and alarms, some analysts have also pointed out that Trump’s campaign rhetoric may be just that. His actual policies are still unknown and that he will have certain framework and limitations in which he can build them.13 One thing is for sure, Indonesia will keep a critical watch over him, with particular attention on his economic policies and approaches towards Muslims in general. While officially the two countries may do well with keeping a friendly outlook, Indonesian media and people have already made up their minds that Trump is not Obama. 9 Safrin La Batu, op. cit.