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Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey Martini Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Crane, Keith, 1953– Iran’s political, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities / Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey Martini. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4304-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Iran—Politics and government—1997– 2. Iran—Strategic aspects. 3. Iran— Economic conditions—1997– I. Lal, Rollie. II. Martini, Jeffrey. III. Title. DS318.825.C73 2008 955.06—dc22 2008019809 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. Cover: IranPix.com. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph is intended to help analysts and policymakers assess the political, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities of Iran to potential U.S. policy measures. The study dissects the political com- plexities and vulnerabilities of the Iranian government, evaluates ethnic and demographic tensions in Iran, and assesses recent economic devel- opments and potential trajectories of future economic growth. It con- cludes with a set of policy recommendations for the U.S. government based on the analysis. The research documented here was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, Plans and Programs, Headquarters United States Air Force and was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. This work was carried out under a fiscal year 2005 project, “The USAF’s Role in the Future Middle East,” and updated in 2007. This work is part of the RAND Corporation’s ongo- ing research on Iran and the Middle East. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. iii iv Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Glossary ......................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 The Problem ........................................................................ 1 Purpose .............................................................................. 2 Organization ........................................................................ 3 Research Approach ................................................................. 4 CHAPTER TWO Domestic Politics ................................................................. 7 The Historical and Religious Basis of Iran’s Political System ................. 7 Major Political Actors .............................................................10 The Supreme Leader ............................................................10 Assembly of Experts ............................................................11 Guardian Council ..............................................................11 Expediency Council ............................................................12 The Judiciary ....................................................................12 The President ....................................................................12 Majlis .............................................................................13 v vi Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities Military ..........................................................................13 The Supreme National Security Council .....................................14 Informal Decisionmaking ........................................................15 Bonyads: Influential Power Brokers ...........................................16 Security Interests ................................................................18 Iranian Factions .................................................................. 20 Other Political Actors .............................................................25 Against Velayat-e-Faqih ........................................................25 Clerics ............................................................................25 Mojahedin-e-Khalq ............................................................ 26 Religious Intellectuals ......................................................... 28 Iranian Political Participation and the Public .................................29 Politics and Legitimacy in Iran ..................................................32 The Political Outlook ............................................................ 34 CHAPTER THREE The Challenge of Ethnicity and Identity Politics ..........................37 The Ethnic and Religious Composition of Iran .............................. 38 Past Iranian Ethnic Policies ......................................................41 Present Challenges ................................................................51 Irredentism and Ethnonationalism ...........................................51 Iran’s Minorities and Political Reform ...................................... 54 Foreign Intervention and Iranian Nationalism ............................... 56 CHAPTER FOUR Demographic Change ...........................................................59 Population and Rate of Growth .................................................59 Urbanization .......................................................................62 CHAPTER FIVE Economic Development and Vulnerabilities ...............................67 Energy and the Iranian Economy ...............................................67 Reserves and Output of Oil and Natural Gas ...............................67 The Role of Energy in Gross Domestic Product, Exports, and the Budget ..................................................................72 Nuclear Power ...................................................................78
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