Russia Beyond Putinrussia Samuel A
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Dædalus on the horizon: Prospects & Limits of Deliberative Democracy edited by James Fishkin & Jane Mansbridge with Arthur Lupia & Anne Norton; Ian Shapiro; André Bächtiger & Simon Beste; Bernard Manin; Roy William Mayega, Lyn Atuyambe, Nathan Tumuhamye, Julius Ssentongo & William Bazeyo; Claus Offe; Alice Siu; Cristina Lafont; Nicole Curato, John S. Dryzek, Selen A. Beyond PutinSpring 2017 Russia Dædalus Ercan, Carolyn M. Hendriks & Simon Niemeyer; Hélène Landemore; and Cass R. Sunstein Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Civil Wars, Violence & International Responses, vols. 1 & 2 edited by Karl Eikenberry & Stephen Krasner Spring 2017 Native Americans & Academia edited by Ned Blackhawk, K. Tsianina Lomawaima, Bryan McKinley Jones Brayboy, Philip J. Deloria, Loren Ghiglione, Russia Beyond Putin Douglas Medin, and Mark Trahant George W. Breslauer & Timothy J. Colton, guest editors with Valerie Bunce · Henry E. Hale Fiona Hill · Brian D. Taylor Maria Popova · Elena Chebankova Marlene Laruelle · Stanislav Markus Representing the intellectual community in its breadth Samuel A. Greene · Keith A. Darden and diversity, Dædalus explores the frontiers of knowledge and issues of public importance. U.S. $15; www.amacad.org; @americanacad Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences “Russia Beyond Putin” Volume 146, Number 2; Spring 2017 George W. Breslauer & Timothy J. Colton, Guest Editors Phyllis S. Bendell, Managing Editor and Director of Publications Peter Walton, Assistant Editor Heather Mawhiney, Senior Editorial Assistant Committee on Studies and Publications John Mark Hansen and Jerrold Meinwald, Cochairs; Bonnie Bassler, Rosina Bierbaum, Marshall Carter, Gerald Early, Carol Gluck, Linda Greenhouse, John Hildebrand, Jerome Kagan, Philip Khoury, Arthur Kleinman, Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Rose McDermott, Jonathan F. Fanton (ex of½cio), Don M. Randel (ex of½cio), Diane P. Wood (ex of½cio) Inside front cover: (Top) A Russian military honor guard from the 154th Commandant’s Regiment stands at attention during a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, June 26, 2009. Photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley, U.S. Navy. (Bottom) Russian Prirazlomnaya oil platform in the Pechora Sea, operated by Gazprom Neft, June 8, 2013. © by Max Avdeev. Contents 5 Introduction Timothy J. Colton 8 Paradoxes of Putinism Timothy J. Colton 19 The Prospects for a Color Revolution in Russia Valerie Bunce 30 Russian Patronal Politics Beyond Putin Henry E. Hale 41 The Next Mr. Putin? The Question of Succession Fiona Hill 53 The Russian Siloviki & Political Change Brian D. Taylor 64 Putin-Style “Rule of Law” & the Prospects for Change Maria Popova 76 Ideas, Ideology & Intellectuals in Search of Russia’s Political Future Elena Chebankova 89 Is Nationalism a Force for Change in Russia? Marlene Laruelle 101 The Atlas That has Not Shrugged: Why Russia’s Oligarchs are an Unlikely Force for Change Stanislav Markus 113 From Boom to Bust: Hardship, Mobilization & Russia’s Social Contract Samuel A. Greene 128 Russian Revanche: External Threats & Regime Reactions Keith A. Darden 142 Images of the Future George W. Breslauer Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Design for the hedge maze is by Johan Vredeman de Vries, from Hortorum viridariorumque elegantes & multiplices formae: ad architectonicae artis normam affabre delineatae (Cologne, 1615). Dædalus was founded in 1955 and established as a quarterly in 1958. The journal’s namesake was renowned in ancient Greece as an inventor, scientist, and unriddler of riddles. Its emblem, a maze seen from above, symbolizes the aspiration of its founders to “lift each of us above his cell in the labyrinth of learning in order that he may see the entire structure as if from above, where each separate part loses its comfortable separateness.” The American Academy of Arts & Sciences, like its journal, brings together distinguished individuals from every ½eld of human endeavor. It was char- tered in 1780 as a forum “to cultivate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honour, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.” Now in its third century, the Academy, with its more than ½ve thousand members, continues to provide intellectual leadership to meet the critical challenges facing our world. Dædalus Spring 2017 Subscription rates: Electronic only for non- Issued as Volume 146, Number 2 member individuals–$50; institutions–$137. Canadians add 5% gst. Print and electronic © 2017 by the American Academy for nonmember individuals–$55; institutions– of Arts & Sciences $153. Canadians add 5% gst. Outside the United The Next Mr. Putin? The Question of Succession States and Canada add $24 for postage and han- © 2017 by Fiona Hill dling. Prices subject to change without notice. The Atlas That has Not Shrugged: Why Russia’s Institutional subscriptions are on a volume-year Oligarchs are an Unlikely Force for Change basis. All other subscriptions begin with the © 2017 by Stanislav Markus next available issue. Editorial of½ces: Dædalus, American Academy of Single issues: $15 for individuals; $38 for insti- Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge ma tutions. Outside the United States and Canada 02138. Phone: 617 576 5085. Fax: 617 576 5088. add $6 per issue for postage and handling. Prices Email: daedalus@amacad.org. subject to change without notice. Library of Congress Catalog No. 12-30299. Claims for missing issues will be honored free Dædalus publishes by invitation only and assumes of charge if made within three months of the no responsibility for unsolicited manuscripts. publication date of the issue. Claims may be The views expressed are those of the author(s) of submitted to journals-cs@mit.edu. Members of each article, and not necessarily of the American the American Academy please direct all ques- Academy of Arts & Sciences. tions and claims to daedalus@amacad.org. Dædalus (issn 0011-5266; e-issn 1548-6192) is Advertising and mailing-list inquiries may be published quarterly (winter, spring, summer, fall) addressed to Marketing Department, mit Press by The mit Press, One Rogers Street, Cambridge Journals, One Rogers Street, Cambridge ma ma 02142-1209, for the American Academy of 02142-1209. Phone: 617 253 2866. Fax: 617 253 1709. Arts & Sciences. An electronic full-text version Email: journals-info@mit.edu. of Dædalus is available from The Press. mit To request permission to photocopy or repro- Sub scription and address changes should be ad - duce content from Dædalus, please complete the dressed to Press Journals Customer Service, mit online request form at http://www.mitpress One Rogers Street, Cambridge 02142-1209. ma journals.org/page/permissionsForm.jsp, or con- Phone: 617 253 2889; U.S./Canada 800 207 8354. tact the Permissions Manager at mit Press Jour- Fax: 617 577 1545. Email: journals-cs@mit.edu. nals, One Rogers Street, Cambridge ma 02142- Printed in the United States by The Sheridan 1209. Fax: 617 253 1709. Email: journals-rights@ Press, 450 Fame Avenue, Hanover pa 17331. mit.edu. Newsstand distribution by Ingram Periodicals Corporations and academic institutions with Inc., 18 Ingram Blvd., La Vergne tn 37086. valid photocopying and/or digital licenses with the Copyright Clearance Center (ccc) may re- Postmaster: Send address changes to Dædalus, produce content from Dædalus under the terms of One Rogers Street, Cambridge ma 02142-1209. their license. Please go to www.copyright.com; Periodicals postage paid at Boston ma and at ccc, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers ma 01923. additional mailing of½ces. The typeface is Cycles, designed by Sumner Stone at the Stone Type Foundry of Guinda ca. Each size of Cycles has been sep arately designed in the tradition of metal types. Introduction Timothy J. Colton The current issue of Dædalus represents a collab- orative effort to think afresh about Russia’s politi- cal future. The long and eventful reign of Vladimir Putin, commenced in 2000, is well into its second half. The time horizon we work with in our discus- sion is roughly ten to fifteen years out. By then, Pu- tin, if alive, will be in his mid-seventies (he turns sixty-five in October 2017) and will either be out of power or in his endgame as national leader.1 Our shared goal in this collection is to reach for an- swers to a pair of linked questions about what will happen to Russia’s increasingly arbitrary political regime as the Putin era winds down. First, what are the prospects either for a fundamental change that would realign the whole system, or for significant within-system change that would modify it or im- prove its functioning, without transforming it? Sec- ond, if change were to occur, what direction can it be expected to take? Will it be toward a more open and democratic political order, toward a more closed and TIMOTHY J. COLTON, a Fellow authoritarian political order, or toward destabiliza- of the American Academy since tion and disorder? These questions are easy enough 2011, is the Morris and Anna Feld- to pose but not so easy to answer. Prediction, as the berg Professor of Government and great physicist Niels Bohr famously put it, “is very Russian Studies at Harvard Uni- difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”2 versity. He is the author of Mos- Two thousand seventeen marks the centenary of cow: Governing the Socialist Metropo- the Russian Revolution that toppled tsarism and lis (1995), Transitional Citizens: Voters and What Influences Them in the New eventually swept the Bolsheviks to power. The anni- Russia (2000), Yeltsin: A Life (2008), versary serves as a reminder that wrenching change and Russia: What Everyone Needs to has been the rule, not the exception, in modern Rus- Know (2016). sia in all three of its successive forms–imperial, So- © 2017 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences doi:10.1162/DAED_ a_00429 5 Introduction viet, and post-Soviet. Scholars have often says are independently written, but were been guilty of underestimating the poten- circulated for comment within the group tial for change in Russia.