Raiffeisen Weekly Report Number 30 August 21st, 2017 Low July inflation, high Tourism and consistent CNB CPI, annual changes In line with the expectation, the July CPI reading brought the rate below 1% yoy 6 (–0.7% mom, 0,8% yoy), thus confirming the slowdown of inflationary pressures and suggesting a potential revision of the initial forecast for the whole year, 4 currently standing at the average of 1.5% yoy. The shortfall in expectations is achieved in the prices of energy and utility services primarily, partly because of % 2 the decline of administrative set prices and partly due to developments in the 0 global commodity markets (primarily oil). Nevertheless, consumer inflation re- mains in a positive territory, mainly driven by food prices, while energy has been –2 moving in the downward direction (VAT on electricity has decreased to 13% from 7.12 1.13 7.13 1.14 7.14 1.15 7.15 1.16 7.16 1.17 7.17 25% since the beginning of this year). CPI Core CPI Sources: CBS, CNB, Economic RESEARCH/RBA In the January – July period the average inflation rate, measured by the CPI totalled 1.0%. Despite the slowdown in growth dynamics, it is at significantly higher levels than in the same period last year, when prices fell by 1.5% yoy. The inflation returning to positive values is primarily a consequence of the growth in Tourist nights in the first half of the the prices of food, beverages, transport and prices in restaurants and hotels. In year addition to the higher VAT on services in hospitality industry, some of the growth 25 in the latter category is surely accounted for by a growing demand in tourism. 20 Again this year tourism will remain the main driver of healthy economic results, 15 generating additional investments directed at increasing both capacities and mn quality. Although part of the increase in tourist arrivals/nights should be attrib- 10 uted to the instability in the competitive Mediterranean markets (Turkey and North 5 Africa), the fact remains that Croatia is constantly improving its competiveness in tourism1. According to H1 preliminary results, both the number of arrivals and the 0 number of overnight stays rose by double-digit rates (23% yoy both) and similar 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 dynamics (more than 10% yoy) continued in July. As a result, we estimate that Sources: CBS, Economic RESEARCH/RBA 2017 might exceed even the most optimistic forecasts and have a multiplicative effect on the rest of the economy, holding the rate of economic growth at around 3 percent. Furthermore, as a labor-intensive industry, a consistent performance of tourism is crucial for the Croatian economy as the relatively high employment Registered unemployment connected to tourism and the high share of private accommodation (on avg 30% 340 20 but even close to 70% in the high season) have a direct impact on disposable 300 18 income of households. In addition, the robust performance of travel services miti- gates deficits on goods account thus supporting a current account surplus and 260 16 % decreasing external vulnerability. 220 14 thousands 180 12 In the second half of the year we expect inflation rates measured by the CPI to remain in the positive territory, but still below the relatively modest 1%. It seems 140 10 that even the relatively high wage increase has but a limited impact on inflation 3.15 5.15 7.15 9.15 1.16 3.16 5.16 7.16 9.16 1.17 3.17 5.17 7.17 11.15 11.16 dynamics. Since February nominal net wages have risen more than 5% yoy Number of unemployed Unemployment rate (r.h.s.) and a similar trend may be expected in the upcoming months. It is precisely for Sources: CBS, Economic RESEARCH/RBA the June wages and the July unemployment rate that the upcoming week is re- served. Besides a solid growth in wages (widely supported by tax relief since the beginning of the year), we expect to see a slightly higher unemployment rate in 1 The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017 , published by the World Economic Forum Market Comment/Outlook Open market operations – CNB`s FX comparison to June but the expected rate of 10.9% would represent a significant interventions annual improvement (–2.3bp). 1,000 No sooner had we thought that the local financial market would operate in a 800 relatively quiet mood, small appreciation pressures (market rate fell shortly to 600 7.39 kuna per euro) motivated the central bank to intervene on the FX market. EUR mn 400 The CNB purchased EUR 126 mn from banks at average rate 7.408032 kuna per euro thus creating additional 0.9 bn HRK liquidity. This was the fourth FX 200 intervention in 2017 by which the monetary authority showed its commitment to 0 the stability of HRK clearly. All in all, the summer on the FX market was very calm. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 The EUR/HRK rate kept a stable footprint, mostly around the 7.40 level. HRK has Purchased from banks Sold to banks been supported by FCY inflows from tourism, while the awareness of the CNB *until 18.8.2017 commitment to FX stability does not allow any stronger appreciation pressures. Sources: CNB, Economic RESEARCH/RBA Similar FX movements might be expected over the next weeks. As the tourist season ends and the end of the year approaches, EUR/HRK should trend slightly upwards. However, compared with 2016, the average as well as EUR/HRK mid rate the end of the year figure should reach lower levels. FCY inflows from exports, 7.60 stronger investments and increasing demand for HRK loans, together with re- duced fiscal risks are some of the factors that will support HRK in the upcoming 7.55 months. On the other hand, the central bank has no intention to change its FX 7.50 7.50 7.50 policy, and FCY demand is likely to increase due to the relatively high import 7.45 7.45 7.45 dependence (that usually grows stronger amid recovery in domestic demand and 7.45 tourism). In addition, the possible sovereign issuance (indexed to the euro) just 7.40 7.40 before the maturing of a HRK bond in November might mitigate the HRK depre- 7.35 ciation pressures. In case of a pure HRK issue, no FX market reaction is expected. 31.3.16 30.6.16 30.9.16 31.3.17 30.6.17 30.9.17 31.3.18 30.6.18 30.9.18 31.12.16 31.12.17 31.12.18 After more than a month, finally the Ministry of Finance has announced a new Sourcse: CNB, Economic RESEARCH/RBA T-bill auction for the upcoming Tuesday. It plans to issue HRK 1 bn of 1Y T-bills and 100 mn of 182-day short term securities. We do not expect any changes in yields and the maturing amount (HRK 1.15 bn) will be covered definitely. 1-year T-Bill yield Finally, the local bond market as well as the Croatian Eurobonds will move in line 6 with the regional peers but will also benefit from the improved fiscal metrics, solid 5 growth and still extremely accommodative monetary policy. 4 Zrinka Živković Matijević % 3 2 1 0 1.11 8.11 3.12 5.13 7.14 2.15 9.15 4.16 6.17 10.12 12.13 11.16 Sources: CNB, Economic RESEARCH/RBA 2 August 21st, 2017 Equity Market New contract for Đuro Đaković Grupa Trading comment Uljanik Plovidba (3 m) The regular equity turnover on the Zagreb Stock Exchange last week amounted 180 to only HRK 4 mn daily on average. Thereof, the most traded were shares of Valamar Riviera and Hrvatski Telekom. Stock index CROBEX advanced by 0.5% 160 with shares of Uljanik Plovidba as the best performers among member compa- 140 nies. Accordingly, CROBEXtransport was the winner among sector indices, while industrial sector index lost the most. Majority of equity indices in the region saw 120 gains last week. 100 3.7. Company news 18.5. 10.6. 26.7. Đuro Đaković Specijalna Vozila, the member company of Đuro Đaković Grupa CROBEX ULPL contracted with German customer delivery of freight wagons for transportation of Sources: ZSE, Economic RESEARCH/RBA sheet metal rolls. Value of the contract is HRK 62 mn. Đuro Đaković Grupa also informed that HRK 51.1 mn of new capital (2.6 mn new shares) was subscribed, which means the success threshold for the New Share Issue has been reached. Restructuring and Sale Centre (CERP) announced the invitation for submission of Đuro Đaković Grupa (3 m) binding offers for the purchase of 1,584,124 shares of Luka Rijeka (11.75% of 41 the founding equity) owned by Republic of Croatia. The offered price per share must be at least HRK 49 while the deadline for submitting binding offers is August 38 28, 2017 until 12.00. 35 In this week 32 In this week we expect similar trading dynamics on the Zagreb Stock Exchange. 29 3.7. Ana Turudić 18.5. 10.6. 26.7. CROBEX DDJH Sources: ZSE, Economic RESEARCH/RBA Market performance Top/Flop – CROBEX index Index 1w % ytd % Value on* Share 1w % Price on* Share 1w % Price on* 18.8.2017 18.8.2017 18.8.2017 PX (CZ) 1.13 12.04 1,033 Uljanik Plovidba 18.35 168 Đuro Đaković Grupa –0.17 30 SBITOP (SI) 0.86 12.91 810 Končar EI 4.31 750 Adris Grupa (P) –0.22 452 ATX (AT) 0.61 21.51 3,182 Atlantska Plov.