EU-Turkey Relations

“Never have relations between Turkey and the European Union been so tense. Yet rarely have we had the opportunity to realize how important this relationship is, for good and ill. At such a critical juncture, this edited volume by Reiners and Turhan provides a much needed theoretical, empirical and policy compass to guide us through the turbulent waters of what remains an existentially important relationship for both the European Union and Turkey.” —Nathalie Tocci, Special Advisor to EU HRVP Josep Borrell, and Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Rome, Italy

“This is an important and original contribution. It offers concrete suggestions concerning how to end the current stalemate in Turkey-EU relations and recreate the basis of a new partnership. It should appeal to a broad audience of scholars, students and practitioners.” —Ziya Öni¸s, Professor, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey

“This volume amounts to a quintessential handbook of EU-Turkey relations after 2009. The theoretical and empirical breadth of its contributions and their state-of-the art analyses in light of domestic, bilateral and global inﬂuences provide valuable insights for the interested public, policymakers, and experts alike. Instead of reafﬁrming stereotypes, the authors highlight the complexities of the relationship, providing an excellent basis for future studies as much as further political debate.” —Thomas Diez, Professor, University of Tübingen, Germany

“This volume focuses on the last decade of the relations between the EU and Turkey when profound changes have taken place both in Europe and the World. The book’s unique contribution rests on the fact that it introduces a systematic and multidimensional analysis of the ﬁeld bringing together studies on theories, actors, and policies. It should be praised as the result of a fruitful collaboration between scholars from the EU and Turkey—all of them European—when relations at the political level ran into hurdles.” —Çi˘gdem Nas, Secretary General, Economic Development Foundation (IKV) / Associate Professor, Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

“With excellent timing Reiners and Turhan have brought together a distinguished team of experts to look at the dynamics of a relationship that is often problematic but of critical importance to both the EU and Turkey. The volume covers not only the current disputes between the two sides but offers a balanced, thoughtful but critical analysis of the multi-faceted EU-Turkey relationship over the past decade or so, providing us with an excellent and comprehensive study.” —Geoffrey Edwards, Senior Fellow and Emeritus Reader, University of Cambridge, UK Wulf Reiners · Ebru Turhan Editors EU-Turkey Relations

Theories, Institutions, and Policies Editors Wulf Reiners Ebru Turhan German Development Institute / Turkish-German University Deutsches Institut für Istanbul, Turkey Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) Bonn, Germany

ISBN 978-3-030-70889-4 ISBN 978-3-030-70890-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70890-0

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speciﬁc statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa- tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional afﬁliations.

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Preface

Gülü seven dikenine katlanır—who loves the rose should put up with its thorns. When we started the systematic re-assessment of the ever-evolving EU–Turkey relations more than three years ago, we saw the urgent need for a volume with handbook character that provided an update of the existing literature and a comprehensive study of the new complexities that epitomize the relationship. The world has changed since then more than most would have anticipated, creating an even greater need for this volume. We are happy and relieved that the plan has ﬁnally come together, despite the thorny character of this ‘academic rose’. Challenges concerned the complexity and dynamic evolution of the topic and the large scope of the volume, as well as the conditions under which it had to be coordinated, written and prepared. However, the greatness of a relationship lies not only in the challenges it faces, but in how it meets them. This insight—and attitude—is not only true for a comprehensive transnational knowledge cooperation project like the volume at hand, but also for EU–Turkey relations in general. We are proud that the idea blossomed as a true, transformative collaboration between scholars from the EU and Turkey during times when cooperation at the political level has remained troubled. We initiated it during our time at the Turkish German University (TDU) in our capacity as coordinators of the Jean Monnet Module ‘INSITER—Inside the Turkey–EU Relations’ (2016–2019). During joint research activi- ties in Berlin, Brussels, Istanbul and Paris, we conceptualized the central

v vi PREFACE elements for the different parts of the volume. The situation in Turkey, in Germany–Turkey and EU–Turkey relations had already become compli- cated, but the view at the ‘Rotonde de la Villette’ in Paris reminded us that EU-Turkey relations encompass manifold components that will endure.1 In recent months, collaborative work on the project helped us bridge the distance between the EU and Turkey as we worked remotely from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, we could not stress enough how fortunate and thankful we are that this fasci- nating group of scholars accepted our invitation to work with us. It is the balanced mix of authors from both the EU and Turkey that makes the volume a particularly rich academic bouquet. In this spirit of cross-border and interdisciplinary collaboration, the volume has benefitted from the Jean Monnet Module INSITER, co- funded by the Erasmus+ program of the EU. It is published with support from the Managing Global Governance (MGG) program of the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwick- lungspolitik (DIE). While the MGG partner countries are a defined group beyond Turkey, the underlying rationale for and questions around cooperation with these countries also apply to the EU/Germany–Turkey relationship. MGG facilitates knowledge cooperation, policy dialogue, and training on, with and between emerging economies (or rising powers), Germany and the EU to jointly address global challenges. Central refer- ence points are the global goals prominently enshrined in the United Nation’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The book is full of evidence of how the EU and Turkey hold the potential for mutually addressing these major economic, social and environmental challenges at the domestic, regional and global levels. The individual political agendas of the EU and Turkey and the common challenges are complex and inter- twined, require both intensified cooperation and deepened analysis, and thus—in their respective and unique way—also speak to the discussion on cooperation with and among rising powers. Since Turkey shares many characteristics of the rising powers on which MGG typically focuses, the volume also contributes to the debate on important overarching questions of inter- and transnational cooperation, and the quest for global partnerships and effective multilateralism in times of global power shifts.

1 This ﬁne building is located in the 19th arrondissement of Paris. It was originally erected as a customs facility and part of the city walls of Paris. The EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement is one of the relatively stable components of EU-Turkey relations. PREFACE vii

In this context, we are particularly grateful that this piece of knowledge co-creation can be published as an open access volume, making it widely available not only in the EU and Turkey but to researchers, policymakers and students around the globe, including but not limited to the MGG network. Clearly, this book would not have been possible without support and maintenance from many sides. We would like to thank our authors for working to a high standard, their trust in us and their perseverance over months. Special thanks go to Dimitris Tsarouhas and Wolfgang Wessels for the encouragement and support to identify the right publishing house. In this context, we are much obliged to the external reviewers for their fertilizing inputs, as well as to Ambra Finotello, Rebecca Roberts, and John Justin Thomyyar from Palgrave for the valuable guidance during the publication process. Furthermore, we would like to thank Megan Gisclon and Jannet King for the language editing, as well as Efsane Deniz Ba¸s and Lukas Engels for their help in compiling and formatting the final manuscript. Our gratitude also goes to Atila Eralp, Nilgün Arısan Eralp, Rahime Süleymano˘glu-Kürüm, Ayselin Yıldız, Melis Cin, Selin Türke¸s- Kılıç, Di˘gdem Soyaltın-Colella, Beken Saatçio˘glu, ÖzgehanSenyuva ¸ as well as Kevin Dickmann for their stimulating ideas and encouragement throughout this transformative process. EU–Turkey relations might not resemble the scent of sweet flowers these days. However, thanks to all these helping hands, this collaborative effort could help bring EU–Turkey studies as a field of analysis at the intersection of EU (integration) studies, International Relations and global governance studies to full bloom.

Bonn, Germany Wulf Reiners Istanbul, Turkey Ebru Turhan November 2020 Contents

1 Unpacking the New Complexities of EU–Turkey Relations: Merging Theories, Institutions, and Policies 1 Ebru Turhan and Wulf Reiners

Part I Theories and Concepts 2 Neoliberalism, Liberal Intergovernmentalism and EU–Turkey Relations 39 Dimitris Tsarouhas 3 Constructivist Approaches to EU–Turkey Relations 63 Senem Aydın-Düzgit and Bahar Rumelili 4 Historical Institutionalism and EU–Turkey Relations: Path Dependence and Critical Junctures in the Accession Process 83 Gülay Icoz and Natalie Martin 5 Europeanization and EU–Turkey Relations: Three Domains, Four Periods 107 Ba¸sak Alpan 6 Rhetorical Entrapment in EU–Turkey Relations 139 Frank Schimmelfennig

ix x CONTENTS

7 Differentiated Integration: An Alternative Conceptualization of EU–Turkey Relations 157 Funda Tekin

Part II Institutions 8 The European Council as a Key Driver of EU–Turkey Relations: Central Functions, Internal Dynamics, and Evolving Preferences 185 Ebru Turhan and Wolfgang Wessels 9 The European Commission’s Role in EU–Turkey Relations 219 Alexander Bürgin 10 The European Parliament’s Perspective on EU–Turkey Relations 241 Michael Kaeding and Felix Schenuit

Part III Policies 11 Turkey as a Special and (Almost) Dead Case of EU Enlargement Policy 267 Barbara Lippert 12 The EU as an Anchor for Turkey’s Macroeconomic and Trade Policy 295 Mehmet Sait Akman and Semih Emre Çekin 13 From Convergence to Divergence: The Compatibility of Turkish and EU Foreign Policy 323 Zerrin Torun 14 Europeanization and De-Europeanization of Turkish Asylum and Migration Policies 347 Ayhan Kaya 15 EU–Turkey Energy Dialogue: Moving Beyond the Accession Negotiations Framework 373 Nicolò Sartori CONTENTS xi

Part IV Conclusions 16 Current Trends and Future Prospects for EU–Turkey Relations: Conditions for a Cooperative Relationship 397 Wulf Reiners and Ebru Turhan

Index 433 Notes on Contributors

Mehmet Sait Akman is associate professor of European integration and director of the G20 Studies Center, Economic Policy Research Founda- tion of Turkey (TEPAV), Ankara, Turkey. Ba¸sak Alpan is associate professor at the Center for European Studies and the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara, Turkey. Senem Aydın-Düzgit is professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabancı University, and senior scholar and research and academic affairs coordinator, Istanbul Policy Center, Istanbul, Turkey. Alexander Bürgin is associate professor and head of the European Union Research and Application Center, Izmir University of Economics, Izmir, Turkey. Semih Emre Çekin is assistant professor at the Department of Economics, Turkish-German University (TDU), Istanbul, Turkey. Gülay Icoz is an independent researcher, London, UK. Michael Kaeding is professor of European integration and European Union politics, Jean Monnet Chair, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany.

xiii xiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Ayhan Kaya is professor of political science, Jean Monnet Chair, director of the European Institute, and director of the Jean Monnet Center of Excellence at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Bilgi University, Istanbul, Turkey. Barbara Lippert is the director of research and member of the executive board, German Institute for International and Security Affairs / Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin, Germany. Natalie Martin is assistant professor at the University of Nottingham, UK. Wulf Reiners is senior researcher and head of the ‘Managing Global Governance’ (MGG) program of the German Development Insti- tute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany. Bahar Rumelili is professor at the Department of International Rela- tions and Jean Monnet Chair, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey. Nicolò Sartori is senior researcher, Enel Foundation, Rome and adjunct professor at the University of Trento and the LUMSA University, Italy. Felix Schenuit is a Ph.D. candidate at the Center for Sustainable Society Research and member of the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS, University of Hamburg, Germany. Frank Schimmelfennig is professor of European politics and member of the Center for Comparative International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzer- land. Funda Tekin is director of the Institute for European Politics / Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP), Berlin, Germany. Zerrin Torun is associate professor at the Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara, Turkey. Dimitris Tsarouhas is associate professor at the Department of Inter- national Relations, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey, and adjunct professor, George Washington University, USA. Ebru Turhan is assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Turkish-German University (TDU), Istanbul, Turkey, and senior research fellow at the Institute for European Politics (IEP), Berlin, Germany. NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xv

Wolfgang Wessels is the director of the Center for Turkey and Euro- pean Union Studies (CETEUS) and Jean Monnet Chair, University of Cologne, Germany. Abbreviations

AFET Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament AKP Justice and Development Party ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats ANAP Motherland Party BDI Federation of German Industries CCT Common Customs Tariff CDA Critical Discourse Analysis CEECs Central and Eastern European countries CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CHP Republican People’s Party COP21 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) CSDP Common Security and Defense Policy CSOs Civil Society Organizations CU Customs Union CUJC Customs Union Joint Committee DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement DEP Democracy Party DSP Democratic Left Party DTP Democratic Society Party EC European Commission ECF Enhanced Commercial Framework ECHR European Court of Human Rights ECR European Conservatives and Reformists EEC European Economic Community EFDD Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy

xvii xviii ABBREVIATIONS

EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Elec- tricity EP European Parliament EPP European People’s Party EU European Union EXIST EPIA¸˙ S / Energy Exchange Istanbul FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade Agreement G20 Group of 20 GDP Gross Domestic Product GUE-NGL The European United Left / Nordic Green Left HADEP People’s Democracy Party HDP Peoples’ Democratic Party HI Historical Institutionalism HLED High-Level Economic Dialogue IMF International Monetary Fund IPA Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance IR International Relations IS ‘Islamic State’ JPC EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee LI Liberal Intergovernmentalism MENA Middle East and North Africa MEP Member of the European Parliament MGK National Security Council of Turkey MHP Nationalist Action Party MSP National Salvation Party NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NPAA National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis NTB Non-Tariff Barrier PKK Kurdistan Workers’ Party PYD Democratic Union Party RCI Rational Choice Institutionalism RP Welfare Party S&D Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats SEE CAO Coordinated Auction Ofﬁce in South East Europe SGC Southern Gas Corridor SI Sociological Institutionalism TANAP Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline TAP Trans-Adriatic Pipeline TEIA¸˙ S Turkish Electricity Transmission Company TEP Third Energy Package TEU Treaty of the European Union ABBREVIATIONS xix

TOBB Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey TÜSIAD˙ Turkish Industry and Business Association UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees VLD Visa Liberalization Dialogue WTO World Trade Organization YPG People’s Protection Units List of Figures

Fig. 10.1 Composition of the European Parliament’s Delegation to the EU–Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee by political group in the 6th (2004–2009), 7th (2009–2014), 8th (2014–2019), and 9th (2019–2024) election period 247 Fig. 10.2 Composition of the European Parliament’s Delegation to the EU–Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee by nationality in the 6th (2004–2009), 7th (2009–2014), 8th (2014–2019), and 9th (2019–2024) election period 249 Fig. 10.3 Voting results for European Parliament resolutions on reports on Turkey (2005–2019) 254 Fig. 10.4 Support for the accession procedure among Members of the European Parliament (2005–2019) 255 Fig. 10.5 Cohesion of voting behavior of the political groups in the European Parliament on the resolutions concerning the European Commission progress reports on Turkey (in %) 256 Fig. 10.6 Voting behavior of the political groups in the European Parliament regarding the resolutions adopted in 2005, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2019 (in %) 257 Fig. 12.1 Fiscal policy fundamentals: Turkey’s public debt and public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) as % of gross domestic product (GDP) 299

xxi xxii LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 12.2 Value and share of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Turkey originating from the EU (2002–2019) (in million USD and %) 301 Fig. 12.3 Turkey’s bilateral trade with the EU (1961–2019) (in billion USD) 309 Fig. 12.4 Turkey’s total exports to the EU (28), Germany, USA, and the rest of the world (1990–2018) (in billion USD) 310 List of Tables

Table 1.1 Milestones of EU–Turkey relations (1945–2020) 6 Table 8.1 The European Council conclusions on Turkey’s accession to the EU (1987–2020) 192 Table 10.1 List of the European Parliament’s topical resolutions on Turkey (2009–2019) 251 Table 11.1 Status of negotiation chapters with Turkey (2020) 282 Table 11.2 Progress and preparations for Turkey’s EU membership (2018–2019) 284 Table 16.1 Comparative overview of theoretical and conceptual approaches to EU–Turkey relations 400

xxiii