Libya: Background and U.S. Relations

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Order Code RL33142 Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Updated July 30, 2007 Christopher M. Blanchard Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Summary On May 15, 2006, the Bush Administration announced its intention to restore full diplomatic relations with Libya and to rescind Libya’s listing as a state sponsor of terrorism and a country not fully cooperating with U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Presidential Determination No. 2006-14 certified that the government of Libya had not provided any support for international terrorism during the preceding six months and had provided assurances that it would not support acts of international terrorism in the future. Full diplomatic relations were restored on May 31 when the United States upgraded its Liaison Office in Tripoli to an Embassy. A 45-day congressional notification period ended on June 29, and the Secretary of State removed Libya’s listings and ended the associated trade restrictions on June 30, without immediate public announcement. President Bush nominated a career diplomat, Gene Cretz, for the U.S. ambassadorship to Libya on July 11, 2007. The changes mark the culmination of an initial period of improvement and rapprochement in U.S.-Libyan relations that began in December 2003, when the Libyan government announced its decision to eliminate its weapons of mass destruction and long-range missile programs. Administration officials have stated that normalization of U.S.-Libyan relations will provide opportunities for the United States to address specific issues of potential concern to Congress such as political and economic reform, the development of energy resources, and human rights. Since the May 2006 announcement, some Members of Congress and family members of U.S. citizens killed and injured in Libyan-sponsored or supported terrorist attacks have expressed their opposition to changes in U.S. policy. Lawyers for the Libyan government and some victims’ families have held talks regarding financial claims arising from the bombings of Pan Am Flight 103, the LaBelle nightclub in Berlin, and other incidents. A Libyan legal team has asserted that it considers the Libyan government’s obligations under its original agreement with families of the Pan Am victims to have been fulfilled, but has pledged to “deal with these cases most transparently and in complete good faith.” A settlement between LaBelle victims and the Libyan government remains the subject of ongoing litigation. In the 110th Congress, Section 654 of the House version of the FY2008 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Agencies Appropriations bill (H.R. 2764), would prohibit the use of U.S. funds for “any diplomatic operations in Libya” until the Administration certifies Libyan steps to resolve claims related to the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 and other attacks. Section 697 of the Senate version of H.R. 2764 would prohibit the use of appropriated funds for “construction of a new United States embassy in Libya; activities in Libya related to energy development; or activities in Libya which support investment in Libya’s hydrocarbon sector, including the processing of applications for dual-use export licenses.” This report provides background information on Libya and U.S.-Libyan relations; profiles Libyan leader Muammar al Qadhafi; discusses Libya’s political and economic reform efforts; and reviews current issues of potential congressional interest. It will be updated periodically to reflect important developments. Contents Recent Developments ..............................................1 Background and Recent History ......................................2 The Qadhafi Era...............................................3 The Green Book and Qadhafi’s Ideology .......................3 Terrorism and Confrontation with the United States...............4 Qadhafi’s Arab-Israeli Intransigence...........................4 International Isolation and Signs of Change .....................5 Current Issues in U.S.-Libyan Relations ................................5 Reestablishing Normal Bilateral Relations ..........................6 Compensation for U.S. Victims of Libyan-Sponsored Attacks ...........7 Pan Am Flight 103.........................................7 La Belle and Other Claims...................................8 Post-9/11 Counterterrorism Cooperation ............................9 Release of Accused Bulgarian Nurses.............................10 The Return of U.S. Oil Companies ...............................11 Current Congressional Issues....................................11 Legislative Efforts on Behalf of U.S. Terrorism Victims ..........12 New Embassy Construction and FY2008 Request ...............13 FY2008 Foreign Operations Request for Libya Programs ..........14 Political and Economic Profile ......................................14 Muammar al Qadhafi: A Profile .............................14 Political Dynamics ............................................15 Government Structure .........................................16 The “Authority of the People”...............................16 Opposition Groups ............................................17 Exiles..................................................17 The Muslim Brotherhood ...................................18 Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) ........................18 Political Reform and Human Rights ..............................19 Legal and Institutional Reform ..............................20 Human Rights Monitoring..................................20 Fathi al Jahmi............................................21 Energy and the Libyan Economy .................................21 Economic Reform and Infrastructure Development ..............22 Oil Reserves and Production Capacity .........................23 New Exploration and Production-Sharing Agreements ............23 Natural Gas .............................................24 Military Profile and WMD Disarmament ..............................24 The Libyan Military ...........................................24 Structure, Training, and Equipment...........................24 Arms Sales..............................................25 WMD Programs and Disarmament...............................26 Nuclear, Chemical, and Ballistic Missile Programs ..............26 Termination of WMD and Missile Programs ...................27 Motives for Disarmament ..................................28 International Controls and Inspections ........................28 Further Reading and Historical Resources..............................30 Appendix A: Libya’s Pre-Qadhafi History .............................31 Libya’s Colonial Experience....................................31 The Ottoman Empire and Qaramanli Dynasty...................31 “The Shores of Tripoli”....................................31 Italian Annexation and Post War Uncertainty...................32 Independence and Monarchy, 1951-1969 ..........................32 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Libya .............................................2 List of Tables Table 1. Libyan Military Personnel ...................................25 Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Recent Developments Following a 45-day congressional notification period that ended on June 29, 2006 the Secretary of State rescinded Libya’s listings as a state sponsor of terrorism and a country not fully cooperating with U.S. counterterrorism efforts. The rescission removed the final series of terrorism-related trade restrictions and the remaining legal obstacles to normal bilateral relations. The U.S. Liaison Office in Tripoli has been upgraded to Embassy status. President Bush nominated a career diplomat, Gene Cretz, for the U.S. ambassadorship to Libya on July 11, 2007. Since mid-2006, U.S.-Libyan rapprochement has remained largely stalled by unresolved claims of U.S. victims of Libyan sponsored terrorist attacks and, until late July 2007, Libya’s imprisonment of Bulgarian and Palestinian medics on charges of deliberately infecting Libyan children with HIV. Following a flurry of diplomatic activity involving the United States, the European Union (and individual member states), Qatar, and Libyan parties, the medics were released from Libyan custody on July 24, and were subsequently pardoned by the Bulgarian government. In exchange, various arrangements were made to provide financial support to the families of the infected children, to improve Libyan medical care, and to strengthen EU-Libya ties. The medics’ release has raised hopes among some observers that outstanding claims of U.S. victims also may be addressed in the near future. On June 25, 2006, the head of a legal team representing the Libyan government asserted that the team considers Libya’s obligations under its original agreement with families of the Pan Am Flight 103 victims to have been fulfilled, but pledged to “deal with these cases most transparently and in complete good faith.” Representatives of the Qadhafi Development Foundation conducted a follow up visit to the United States in April 2007 and discussed settlement terms with victims’ representatives. Enforcement of a 2006 settlement agreement between the Libyan government and the victims of the 1986 LaBelle discotheque bombing is subject to a civil suit in U.S. District Court. In the 110th Congress, Section 654 of the House version of the FY2008 State, Foreign Operations and Related Agencies Appropriations bill (H.R. 2764), would prohibit the use of U.S. funds for “any diplomatic operations
Recommended publications
  • Considering the Planks of U.S. International Cyber Policy, 2005-2011
    JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY FROM TUNIS TO TUNIS: CONSIDERING THE PLANKS OF U.S. INTERNATIONAL CYBER POLICY, 2005–2011 BY CHRISTOPHER BRONK, PH.D. FELLOW IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POLICY JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY MAY 21, 2012 Considering the Planks of U.S. International Cyber Policy THESE PAPERS WERE WRITTEN BY A RESEARCHER (OR RESEARCHERS) WHO PARTICIPATED IN A BAKER INSTITUTE RESEARCH PROJECT. WHEREVER FEASIBLE, THESE PAPERS ARE REVIEWED BY OUTSIDE EXPERTS BEFORE THEY ARE RELEASED. HOWEVER, THE RESEARCH AND VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THESE PAPERS ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL RESEARCHER(S), AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. © 2012 BY THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY OF RICE UNIVERSITY THIS MATERIAL MAY BE QUOTED OR REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION, PROVIDED APPROPRIATE CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND THE JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY. 2 Considering the Planks of U.S. International Cyber Policy Abstract How have U.S. policies on the governance of the Internet and cyberspace evolved between the 2005 World Summit of the Information Society (WSIS) in Tunisia and the massive, cyber-fueled uprisings in the Middle East of 2011? The paper develops a framework of possible actions regarding Internet or cyber governance to produce contexts for the timeline of significant policy statements by U.S. government officials and agencies on the topic. In the resulting narrative, Internet governance policy rises from a relatively marginal issue for the foreign policy establishment to a significant component of U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Benghazi.Pdf
    ! 1! The Benghazi Hoax By David Brock, Ari Rabin-Havt and Media Matters for America ! 2! The Hoaxsters Senator Kelly Ayotte, R-NH Eric Bolling, Host, Fox News Channel Ambassador John Bolton, Fox News Contributor, Foreign Policy Advisor Romney/Ryan 2012 Gretchen Carlson, Host, Fox News Channel Representative Jason Chaffetz, R-UT Lanhee Chen, Foreign Policy Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 Joseph diGenova, Attorney Steve Doocy, Host, Fox News Channel Senator Lindsay Graham, R-SC Sean Hannity, Host, Fox News Channel Representative Darrell Issa, R-CA, Chairman, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Brian Kilmeade, Host, Fox News Channel Senator John McCain, R-AZ Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee Stuart Stevens, Senior Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 Victoria Toensing, Attorney Ambassador Richard Williamson, Foreign Policy Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 ! 3! Introduction: Romney’s Dilemma Mitt Romney woke up on the morning of September 11, 2012, with big hopes for this day – that he’d stop the slow slide of his campaign for the presidency. The political conventions were in his rear-view mirror, and the Republican nominee for the White House was trailing President Obama in most major polls. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released at the start of the week, the former Massachusetts governor’s previous 1-point lead had flipped to a 6-point deficit.1 “Mr. Obama almost certainly had the more successful convention than Mr. Romney,” wrote Nate Silver, the polling guru and then-New York Times blogger.2 While the incumbent’s gathering in Charlotte was marked by party unity and rousing testimonials from Obama’s wife, Michelle, and former President Bill Clinton, Romney’s confab in Tampa had fallen flat.
    [Show full text]
  • Libya's Bold Past, Promising Future
    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE SEPTEMBER 2010 MAGAZINE Libya’s Bold Past, Promising Future September 2010 Contents Issue Number 548 14 Picturing Democracy IIP engages youth in a global conversation. 16 Amazing Race Rural journey teaches FSOs Slovenian. 18 Cup Runneth Over Embassy uses competition to build South African ties. 20 Consular Transparency Consulate General reaches out to Vietnamese. 16 18 20 36 46 22 Gem of Tangier Historic facility still serves U.S. diplomacy. Columns 24 Seeking Stability in Somalia 2 From the D.G. 46 After Hours Unit works for peace in Somalia. 3 Letters 48 State of the Arts 26 Post of the Month: Tripoli 4 In the News 49 Obituaries Libya’s ‘Bride of the Mediterranean’. 13 Diversity Notes 51 Retirements 32 Challenges Aplenty 44 Safety Scene 52 The Last Word Consular section fights fraud in Sri Lanka. 34 Virtual Bridges Program connects U.S., Chinese students. 36 Keeping Watch On the Cover INR Office keeps Department in the know. The entry gate to the ancient Roman city 40 FLO Initiative of Leptis Magna is an hour and a half GEI addresses family member career needs. (and a few millennia) from Tripoli. Photo by David Bradfield 42 Staying Put HR reports job-attrition decline. Direct from the D.G. Helping Department Employees with Disabilities Succeed Last October, President Barack Obama announced his goal of ensuring fair and equal access to employment for all Americans, particularly the 54 million Americans living with disabilities. In order to provide disabled State Department employees with access to the support and services they need to succeed, we have created in HR’s Office of Employee Relations a new division that provides one-stop services and assistive technologies to those employees —the Disability/Reasonable Accommodation Division.
    [Show full text]
  • Wikileaks Ante El Derecho Estadounidense: ¿Delincuencia Informática, Espionaje O Ejercicio Legítimo De La Libertad De Expresión Y De Prensa?
    WIKILEAKS ANTE EL DERECHO ESTADOUNIDENSE: ¿DELINCUENCIA INFORMÁTICA, ESPIONAJE O EJERCICIO LEGÍTIMO DE LA LIBERTAD DE EXPRESIÓN Y DE PRENSA? Memoria de prueba para optar al grado de Licenciado en Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales FELIPE GONZALO CAMPOS ARLEGUI Profesor Guía Dr. Salvador Andrés Millaleo Hernández Santiago de Chile 2014 2 3 4 A mi familia, pero por sobretodo y por siempre a mi madre. 5 6 TABLA DE CONTENIDOS DEDICATORIA…………………………………………………………………………………….Página 5 TABLA DE CONTENIDOS………………………………………………………………………………...7 INTRODUCCIÓN………………………………….………………………………………………...........12 CAPÍTULO I………………………………………………………………………………………………..15 ¿QUÉ ES UN SITIO WIKI ? ¿QUÉ ES EL LEAKING ? ¿QUIÉN ES EL FUNDADOR Y LOS PRINCIPALES COLABORADORES DE WIKILEAKS ? ¿CUÁL ES SU BASE TECNOLÓGICA? ¿CUÁLES SON SUS PRIMERAS FILTRACIONES? I.1. ¿QUÉ ES UN SITIO WIKI ?..........................................................................................................15 I.1.1. Los primeros Wiki………...…… ……………………….. ……………………………………….15 I.1.1.1. WikiWikiWeb …………………………………………………………………………………..15 I.1.1.2. Wikipedia ……………………………………………………………………………………...16 I.1.2. ¿Cuáles son los elementos esenciales de un Wiki ?.......................................................17 I.1.2.1. Autoría colectiva……………………………………………………………………………...17 I.1.2.2. Limitado uso del HTML y uso de una estructura hipertextual…………………………...17 I.1.2.3. Flexibilidad………………………………………………………………………………….....18 I.1.2.4. Están libres de ego, libres de tiempo y nunca acabados………………………………..18 I.1.3. ¿Qué otro elemento diferenciador
    [Show full text]
  • Partners for a New Beginning Status Report | January 2013 Table of Contents
    PARTNERS FOR A NEW BEGINNING STATUS REPORT | JANUARY 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS A Letter from the Chairs 2 Looking Ahead to 2013 4 Projects & Local Chapter Overviews 6 Algeria 6 Egypt 8 Indonesia 10 Jordan 12 Mauritania 15 Morocco 16 Pakistan 18 Palestinian Territory 22 Tunisia 27 Turkey 29 Maghreb 32 Global 34 What We’re Doing 36 2012 Convenings and Partner Events 36 2012 Delegations 42 Upcoming in 2013 43 PNB Leadership 44 PNB Steering Committee 44 PNB-NAPEO Advisory Board 44 PNB Secretariat: Roles and Responsibilities 45 PNB Timeline(2010–2012) 46 PNB Statement of Commitment, Clinton Global Initiative, September 2010 47 PARTNERS FOR A NEW BEGINNING STATUS REPORT | JANUARY 2013 As Partners for a New Beginning (PNB) concludes its second year, we would like to take a moment to reflect on our collaborative work and take stock of our achievements. Our goal is to capitalize upon the momentum and success of this past year, to secure tangible results as we continue moving forward. A LETTER PNB can look proudly on the accomplishments of the last 12 months. They have contributed significantly to our mission. Our launch last year of local chapters in Jordan and Mauritania FROM THE CHAIRS attests to the sustained efforts of our partners abroad, the invaluable leadership of our Steering Committee, the instrumental support from the PNB Secretariat, and our partnership with the U.S. Department of State, codified recently in a renewed Memorandum of Understanding. With the help of its partners, PNB has launched, expanded, or pledged support for more than 180 projects since the partnership began in September 2010.
    [Show full text]
  • Security Failures of Benghazi
    THE SECURITY FAILURES OF BENGHAZI HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION OCTOBER 10, 2012 Serial No. 112–193 Printed for the use of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov http://www.house.gov/reform U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 79–871 PDF WASHINGTON : 2012 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Aug 31 2005 10:41 Mar 28, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\DOCS\79871.TXT APRIL COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM DARRELL E. ISSA, California, Chairman DAN BURTON, Indiana ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland, Ranking JOHN L. MICA, Florida Minority Member TODD RUSSELL PLATTS, Pennsylvania EDOLPHUS TOWNS, New York MICHAEL R. TURNER, Ohio CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York PATRICK T. MCHENRY, North Carolina ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON, District of JIM JORDAN, Ohio Columbia JASON CHAFFETZ, Utah DENNIS J. KUCINICH, Ohio CONNIE MACK, Florida JOHN F. TIERNEY, Massachusetts TIM WALBERG, Michigan WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts JUSTIN AMASH, Michigan JIM COOPER, Tennessee ANN MARIE BUERKLE, New York GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia PAUL A. GOSAR, Arizona MIKE QUIGLEY, Illinois RAU´ L R. LABRADOR, Idaho DANNY K. DAVIS, Illinois PATRICK MEEHAN, Pennsylvania BRUCE L. BRALEY, Iowa SCOTT DESJARLAIS, Tennessee PETER WELCH, Vermont JOE WALSH, Illinois JOHN A.
    [Show full text]
  • Libya: Background and U.S
    Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Christopher M. Blanchard Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs August 3, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33142 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Libya: Background and U.S. Relations Summary Libyan-U.S. rapprochement has unfolded gradually since 2003, when the Libyan government accepted responsibility for the actions of its personnel in regard to the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 and announced its decision to eliminate its weapons of mass destruction and long- range missile programs. In response, U.S. sanctions were gradually removed, and, on May 15, 2006, the Bush Administration announced its intention to restore full diplomatic relations with Libya and to rescind Libya’s listing as a state sponsor of terrorism. Full diplomatic relations were restored on May 31, 2006 when the United States upgraded its Liaison Office in Tripoli to an Embassy. Libya was removed from the lists of state sponsors of terrorism and states not fully cooperating with U.S. counterterrorism efforts in June 2006. Until late 2008, U.S.-Libyan re-engagement was hindered by lingering disagreements over outstanding legal claims related to U.S. citizens killed or injured in past Libyan-sponsored or supported terrorist attacks. From 2004 onward, Bush Administration officials argued that broader normalization of U.S.-Libyan relations would provide opportunities for the United States to address specific issues of concern to Congress, including the outstanding legal claims, political and economic reform, the development of Libyan energy resources, and human rights. However, some Members of Congress took steps to limit U.S.-Libyan re-engagement as a means of encouraging the Libyan government to settle outstanding terrorism cases in good faith prior to further normalization.
    [Show full text]
  • West Windsor &Plainsboro
    WW-P’S FREE COMMUNITY NEWSPAPER WWPINFO.COM WEST WINDSOR Letters: WW-P Schools Need Property Management 2 & PLAINSBORO WW Approves Maneely Rezoning 12 ‘Two Buck Chuck’ Coming to Trader Joe’s 13 Sexual Harassment Suit In Plainsboro 16 New Swim Coach For North 18 Police Reports 33 Classifieds 35 NEWS ISSUE DATE: DECEMBER 4, 2009 NEXT ISSUE:DECEMBER 18 HS South Students Protest People In The News WW-P Privatization Study by Cara Latham building and grounds department,” For These Teens, said Gerri Hutner, the district’s di- Reality Is Real – he controversy over the pos- rector of communications. “They sible privatization of the informed the administrators they Not Virtual TWest Windsor-Plainsboro were going to do this. They were school district’s maintenance and allowed to voice their emotions by Cara Latham custodial staff has created a new and concerns and opinions on this group of concerned citizens — the topic during this time.” om Roder was watching district’s high school students. television one day when he As part of the curriculum for A group of nearly 100 students language arts, there is a unit on civ- Tsaw someone he knew in a at High School South organized a recruitment advertisement for the il disobedience, in which students walk-out during the lunch period have discussions on various topics, Plainsboro Rescue Squad. on December 2 Two months later, he was in the including so- in protest of the cial contracts, back of an ambulance, reviving a Board of Educa- woman who was suffering from a ‘They informed the ad- cheating, and tion’s decision ministrators they were honor codes, heart attack.
    [Show full text]
  • Military Intervention and Diplomatic Engagement in Libya: a Collage of Policy, Force, and Law
    American University Washington College of Law Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law Contributions to Books Scholarship & Research 2014 Military Intervention and Diplomatic Engagement in Libya: A Collage of Policy, Force, and Law Paul Williams American University Washington College of Law, [email protected] Anna Triponel Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_bk_contributions Part of the International Law Commons, and the Military, War, and Peace Commons Recommended Citation Williams, Paul and Triponel, Anna, "Military Intervention and Diplomatic Engagement in Libya: A Collage of Policy, Force, and Law" (2014). Contributions to Books. 193. https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_bk_contributions/193 This Book Chapter is brought to you for free and open access by the Scholarship & Research at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Contributions to Books by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 1 CASE STUDY MILITARY INTERVENTION AND DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT IN LIBYA: A COLLAGE OF POLICY, FORCE AND LAW By Anna F. Triponel and Paul R. Williams∗ Introduction In February of 2011, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi violently cracked down on Libyans protesting in Benghazi—Libya’s second largest city. By the end of February, an armed conflict between Qadhafi’s forces and opposition forces was well underway, with much of eastern Libya including Benghazi controlled by anti-Qadhafi forces. By Thursday, March 17, Qadhafi was preparing to retake the city of Benghazi, broadcasting that his forces would show “no mercy and no pity” to those who would not give up resistance.
    [Show full text]
  • Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N
    \\jciprod01\productn\C\CIN\46-1\CIN104.txt unknown Seq: 1 13-JUN-13 13:27 Wargaming the “Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N. Responses Hannibal Travis† Introduction ..................................................... 75 R I. The Cause of Peace ....................................... 77 R II. Wargaming the Arab Spring: General Principles .......... 86 R III. The Spark, Tunisia 2011 ................................. 88 R IV. The Pharaoh, Egypt 2011 ................................ 93 R V. The “Cockroaches,” Libya 2011 .......................... 101 R VI. The Sideshow: Sudan ..................................... 117 R VII. Wargaming the Arab Spring and Planning U.N. Responses ................................................ 119 R A. The Duty to Prevent and Punish Genocide ............. 119 R 1. Predicting Whether There is a Risk of Genocide in Arab-Spring Countries............................. 119 R 2. Planning U.N. Responses to Attempts or Conspiracies to Commit Genocide ................. 124 R B. The Duty to Prevent and Punish Other War Crimes .... 129 R C. The Duty Not to Return Refugees to Civil War or Ethno-Political Violence ............................... 131 R D. The Duty to Respect the Political Independence and Territorial Integrity of Other States .................... 133 R E. The Duty to Promote Other Human Rights ............. 140 R Conclusion ...................................................... 142 R Introduction Scholars have developed three prominent schools of thought on the Arab Spring, which emerged
    [Show full text]
  • 1 the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs
    The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs Oral History Project AMBASSADOR CHARLES O. CECIL Interviewed by: Charles Stuart Kennedy Initial interview date: September 7, 2006 Copyright 2010 ADST TABLE OF CONTENTS Background Born in entucky into a military family and raised in various states and Germany University of California, Berkeley Experiment in International Living, Nigeria School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS, US Air Force Entered the Foreign Service in 19.. uwait 0 1otation Officer 19..219.8 Shia community Contacts Commercial reporting Palestinians Ambassador Howard Cottam Arab2Israel Six Day 5ar 1elations Arab Nationalist 6ovement British influence Elections for Assembly uwaiti women April Glaspie 7ounger uwaitis Ira8 political developments 9ohn Conlon 6arriage uwait alcohol policy State Department0 FSI0 Swahili and French language training 19.8219.9 Dar es Salaam, :anzibar (Tanzania,0 Political Officer 19.921971 Embassy Officers Communist Chinese British legacy 1 Government Arab population 1evolutionary Council Abeid Amani arume USAID projects 6edia Local suspicious of US 9ulius Nyerere Social relations 1elations 6edical facilities Environment Housing and food Beirut, Lebanon0 FSI0 Arabic Language Training 197121973 Housing Birth of son Course of study 6iddle East Orientation trips Palestinians 9eddah, Saudi Arabia0 Political/6ilitary Officer 197321975 Interest in Arab 5orld 1iyadh visits US 6ilitary Training Programs Ambassador 9ames Akins Saudi National Guard Saudi 6ilitary organization Social
    [Show full text]
  • DEPARTMENT of STATE 2201 C Street NW., Washington, DC 20520 Phone, 202–647–4000
    DEPARTMENT OF STATE 2201 C Street NW., Washington, DC 20520 Phone, 202–647–4000. Internet, www.state.gov. SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE JAMES B. STEINBERG Deputy Secretary of State for Management and JACOB J. LEW Resources Ambassador-at-Large and Coordinator for (VACANCY) Counterterrorism U.S. Global AIDS Coordinator MARK DYBUL Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and (VACANCY) Research Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs RICHARD R. VERMA Chairman, Foreign Service Grievance Board IRA F. JAFFE Chief of Protocol (VACANCY) Counselor and Chief of Staff CHERYL MILLS Civil Service Ombudsman (VACANCY) Counselor of the Department of State CHERYL MILLS Director of the Office of Civil Rights JOHN M. ROBINSON Director, Policy Planning Staff ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER Inspector General HAROLD W. GEISEL, Acting Legal Adviser HAROLD KOH Special Assistant to the Secretary and Executive DANIEL B. SMITH Secretary of the Department Under Secretary for Arms Control and ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, Acting International Security Affairs Assistant Secretary for International Security C.S. ELIOT KANG, Acting and Nonproliferation Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs FRANK J. RUGGIERO, Acting Assistant Secretary for Verification, ROSE GOTTEMOELLER Compliance, and Implementation Under Secretary for Economic, Energy, and (VACANCY) Agricultural Affairs Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy, and DAVID NELSON, Acting Business Affairs Under Secretary for Democracy and Global (VACANCY) Affairs Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human KAREN B. STEWART, Acting Rights, and Labor Assistant Secretary for Oceans and RENO L. HARNISH III, Acting International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Assistant Secretary for Population, Refugees, SAMUEL M. WITTEN, Acting and Migration Under Secretary for Management PATRICK F. KENNEDY Assistant Secretary for Administration STEVEN J.
    [Show full text]