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The Factors Which Lead to the Emergence of Terrorist Groups and Influence Their Structure

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University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection 1954-2016 University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 2015 The factors which lead to the emergence of terrorist groups and influence their structure Stuart C. Groombridge University of Wollongong Follow this and additional works at: https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses University of Wollongong Copyright Warning You may print or download ONE copy of this document for the purpose of your own research or study. The University does not authorise you to copy, communicate or otherwise make available electronically to any other person any copyright material contained on this site. You are reminded of the following: This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this work may be reproduced by any process, nor may any other exclusive right be exercised, without the permission of the author. Copyright owners are entitled to take legal action against persons who infringe their copyright. A reproduction of material that is protected by copyright may be a copyright infringement. A court may impose penalties and award damages in relation to offences and infringements relating to copyright material. Higher penalties may apply, and higher damages may be awarded, for offences and infringements involving the conversion of material into digital or electronic form. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the University of Wollongong. Recommended Citation Groombridge, Stuart C., The factors which lead to the emergence of terrorist groups and influence their structure, Doctor of Philosophy thesis, School of Law, University of Wollongong, 2015. https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/4906 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] Title Sheet THE FACTORS WHICH LEAD TO THE EMERGENCE OF TERRORIST GROUPS AND INFLUENCE THEIR STRUCTURE *A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY From UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG By STUART C. GROOMBRIDGE, Bachelor Engineering (Computer) UOW, Post Grad Cert (Strategic Intelligence) QUT, Master of Justice (Strategic Intelligence) QUT SCHOOL OF LAW 2015 Stuart Groombridge 1 22/02/2017 Student Number: 8505097 University of Wollongong School of Law CERTIFICATION I, Stuart C. Groombridge, declare that this thesis, submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, in the Faculty of Law, Humanities and the Arts, School of Law, University of Wollongong, is wholly my own work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. The document has not been submitted for qualifications at any other academic institution. (Signature) Stuart C. Groombridge 20 October 2016 Stuart Groombridge 2 22/02/2017 Student Number: 8505097 University of Wollongong School of Law Acknowledgements If I had known 9 years ago that doing a Doctorate part time would take me 9 years to complete, I would not have started. During this time, I have had to manage competing agendas of family, work, and study, which at times have not been as compatible as one would like. I would like to acknowledge, this research has been conducted with the support of the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship I would also like to acknowledge the support, advice, assistance, and perseverance of my Supervisor Professor Adam Dolnik, over the duration of the doctorate. I would also like to acknowledge the patience and understanding displayed by my wife Mrs Karen Groombridge during the long period of study. Further, I would like to thank her and my mother Mrs Maureen Groombridge for proof reading the thesis prior to submission. I would also like to thank my brother Dr Paul Groombridge who also provided some support by proof reading sections of the thesis. I would also like to specially thank Ms Angela Bendeich and my wife Karen for conducting the final proof reading prior to final submission. I would like to thank my employer who has supported this process, specifically my managers Ms Leah Nicholson, Mr Carl Giampietro, Ms Kerryn Fowler, and Ms Angela West who approved my leave applications and pushed me to finish. Finally, I would like to acknowledge my grandchildren who have sacrificed much time with their grandfather, so I could work on this Doctorate. I would also like to mention my oldest grandson, Jayden, who was only a few weeks old when I started this process and was at my proposal presentation at the start. Stuart Groombridge 3 22/02/2017 Student Number: 8505097 University of Wollongong School of Law Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 1 – Introduction ............................................................................................ 14 Chapter 2 – Definitions and key concepts ................................................................. 17 Defining Terrorism .................................................................................................. 17 Defining the Environment ....................................................................................... 22 Defining the Environmental variables ................................................................. 23 Definitions of the PESTELO variables ................................................................... 24 Defining Homophily ................................................................................................ 27 The role of social affinity or homophily in group formation ............................... 27 Definition of the Homophyllic Variables ............................................................. 34 Radicalisation, value homophily and attitudes towards violence ....................... 37 Defining Radicalisation ............................................................................................ 38 Defining the scales of Radicalisation ................................................................... 41 Definitions of Radicalisation and the Scales of Radicalisation ............................ 42 Defining Group Typology ........................................................................................ 43 Chapter 3 – Literature Review and Research Questions ........................................... 48 The Emergence of Terrorist Groups........................................................................ 48 State of Current Research on Radicalisation and factors leading to terrorist group emergence ................................................................................................ 48 Communications .................................................................................................. 54 The role of leadership .......................................................................................... 55 Summary .............................................................................................................. 61 Hypothesis ........................................................................................................... 62 Variables .............................................................................................................. 62 Stuart Groombridge 4 22/02/2017 Student Number: 8505097 University of Wollongong School of Law Influences on the Size of Terrorist Groups ............................................................. 63 The Logistic Equation and its influence on group size ........................................ 64 Summary .............................................................................................................. 65 Hypothesis ........................................................................................................... 66 Variables .............................................................................................................. 66 Influences on the Structure of Terrorist Groups .................................................... 66 Environment and Network Structure .................................................................. 66 Cognitive limits .................................................................................................... 68 Emergence of Structure....................................................................................... 72 Summary .............................................................................................................. 78 Hypothesis ........................................................................................................... 79 Variables .............................................................................................................. 79 Chapter 4 – Modelling Terrorist Groups as Complex Adaptive Systems ................... 80 An introductory background to Complexity Theory ............................................... 80 Terrorist Groups as a Complex Adaptive System ................................................... 81 Emergence and Self-organising .............................................................................. 84 Emergence ........................................................................................................... 84 Self-Organising..................................................................................................... 95 Summary ..............................................................................................................
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