A SPECIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE BRIEF FOR THE VANISHING TREASURES PROGRAMME

GETTING CLIMATE-SMART WITH THE

IN CENTRAL ASIA Author: Laurent Fouinat, GRID-Arendal

Contributors: Stefan Michel, UNEP Technical advisor Tanya Rosen, UNEP Technical advisor Jessica Bitsch, UNEP Maarten Hofman, UNEP Björn Alfthan, GRID-Arendal Koustubh Sharma, Snow Leopard Trust & Global Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Protection programme (GSLEP) Justine Shanti Alexander, Snow Leopard Trust Ranjini Murali, Snow Leopard Trust

Reviewers: Matthias Jurek, UNEP Susan Mutebi-Richards, UNEP Arash Ghoddousi, Humboldt-University Berlin

Cover photo: iStock/RolfSt

Citation: United Nations Environment Programme and GRID- Arendal (2020). Getting Climate-Smart with the Snow Leopard in Central Asia: A Species and Climate Change Brief for the Vanishing Treasures Programme. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.

Disclaimer The contents of this brief do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UN Environment Programme or contributory organisations. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any maps in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. GETTING CLIMATE-SMART WITH THE

IN CENTRAL ASIA The goal of this information brief

This brief is one in a series that also includes consultations at the local and national level and the mountain gorilla and the Royal Bengal tiger, will be further explored and developed in the produced under the Vanishing Treasures programme. course of the Vanishing Treasures programme. Its goal is to highlight how climate change is – and They do not, however, refer to the definitive will be – impacting the conservation of the snow approach being taken by the programme. leopard in Central Asia, particularly within the countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Vanishing Treasures programme is working to: • integrate climate-smart measures into The brief examines how climate change has conservation planning, including ecological multiple, and often interacting, impacts on connectivity measures, to take into account the snow leopard – be it on its physiology, on shifting and changing habitats and other changes the ecosystems and prey species on which it as a result of climate change; depends, or on the behaviour of humans living • pilot ecosystem-based adaptation and other in its surroundings – with important feedback measures to increase communities’ resilience loops that directly affects the conservation of to climate change and to promote livelihood this magnificent animal. options that reduce or diversify the dependence on natural resources, such as water, that species It also includes a series of possible options for depend on; policymakers and conservation practitioners in • pilot specific measures to reduce human- the region. The potential solutions are based on wildlife conflict.

Hidden snow leopard in Kyrgyzstan. Credit: Sebastian Kennerknecht

They call me the ‘ghost of the mountains’, but I must come out of the shadows and speak up this time. Warmer temperatures mean livestock is coming up higher to graze, encroaching on my favourite wild prey’s space and its food. We snow leopards are shy so we prefer seeing locals, their livestock or hikers from a distance. We’ve no need to haunt or hunt you, but I’m tempted to sneak up on livestock moving in. Healthy habitats would mean more space for my prey to graze and less temptation for me. And as an ‘umbrella’ species, if we’re happy, so are many other species beneath us on these mountains. – Svet (Russian name for ‘Light’), snow leopard, Central Asian mountains

4 Introduction

The snow leopard Panthera uncia is the smallest 470–1,000 of them living in the region. The and rarest of the so-called “big cats” from the majority are thought to be in Kyrgyzstan and genus Panthera. The estimated population of snow Tajikistan, home to approximately 150 (Saidov leopards remaining in the wild is as few as 3,500 to et al. 2016) and 250–280 (Nowell, Paltsyn and 7,500 (McCarthy and Mallon 2016; McCarthy et al. Sharma 2016), respectively. These countries 2017). Their elusive behaviour and their expansive mainly consist of relatively high mountainous habitats, spanning between 200–400 km² for environments, with 90 per cent of Kyrgyzstan at an adult male, has made it difficult to accurately an elevation of more than 1,500 metres above estimate their population size, but experts agree that sea level and 50 per cent of Tajikistan more than it is declining. They naturally inhabit high mountain 3,000 metres above sea level. The Tian Shan and ranges throughout Asia, from the Himalayas in the Pamir mountain ranges are among the highest south, across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the mountains in the world, with multiple summits mountains of Siberia in the north, to the mountains at an elevation of more than 7,000 metres above of Central Asia in the west. Their natural habitat sea level in both countries. These environments spans 12 countries: Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, are ideal for wild ungulates, the preferred prey India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, of the snow leopard. Apex predators, such as Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. the snow leopard, may act as regulators of prey populations within their habitat and therefore Central Asia is crucial to the conservation ensuring their well-being should ensure the of the snow leopard. There are an estimated stability of the whole ecosystem.

A scar-faced snow leopard captured by camera trap in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Credit: Sebastian Kennerknecht

5 The agricultural sector is an important driver of 2019). Livestock is also very often owned by people livelihoods in the Central Asia region. Agriculture from other parts of a province or the country, as accounts for 35.6 per cent of Kyrgyzstan’s gross it is considered a safe and stable type of capital or domestic product (GDP), making it one of the investment. country’s main economic sectors. The rest of the economy is supported by the export of metallurgy Snow leopards have been found to attack livestock, products, the generation of hydropower, the either on pasture lands with a relatively low production of cotton and remittances from rate of livestock death, or inside livestock barns migrant labour. Arable land only covers about 6.7 (“corrals”) where they tend to kill many animals at per cent of the country, whereas pasture lands once. Often, such predation results in retaliatory cover 48.3 per cent. The Kyrgyz population has killings of snow leopards, and it therefore remains adapted its main activity to this mountainous a severe threat to the species. In Kyrgyzstan, territory by encouraging their livestock to graze little information about such conflicts is available, on natural rangelands, an activity which produces but more data is now being gathered. In early large quantities of meat, dairy products and wool. 2020, two attacks occurred in villages, but neither Similarly, in Tajikistan, the total arable land resulted in the death of any livestock or snow only accounts for 6 per cent of the country, leopards (Asykulov and Kubanychbekov pers. mostly located in the low-altitude areas in the comm. 2020). In Tajikistan, between 2012 and west. Pasture lands cover about 21 per cent 2020, 60 attacks by snow leopards were reported, of the country. Although livestock remains a key representing a total loss of at least 950 sheep component of the agricultural sector in the country, and goats (Association of Nature Conservation its management, including grazing regulations, is not Organizations of Tajikistan 2020). Conflict with fully adequate. Consequently, both corporate and other carnivores has been reported as well and independent farms have insufficient resources sometimes leads to erroneous retaliatory killing to maintain and manage pasture lands, leading to of snow leopards. Illegal killing of snow leopards overexploitation of pasture, free-riding behaviour is often – but not always – connected with those and conflicts between villages (Cavatassi and Mallia attacks. For the period 2010–2016, the total

Tajikistan mountainous landscape. Credit: tajwildlife/ANCOT

6 A herder´s camp in Tajikistan. Credit: ANCOT 2020 number of seizures, observations and market use in staged illegal trophy hunting was reported surveys indicated that at least 259 animals by local stakeholders. Despite the practice being across the entire species range fell victim to this. illegal all over the world, trophy hunting of the This number includes the 5–7 adult snow leopards snow leopard is still taking place. Proof can be in Kyrgyzstan and 20–25 in Tajikistan assumed found on social media, where those still engaging in to be poached each year (Nowell, Paltsyn and this practice, mainly high-ranking people prepared Sharma 2016). In some cases, particularly in to pay exorbitant amounts, post photographs Tajikistan, the capture of live animals for further taken alongside the dead cats (Rosen 2015).

Mountains are global biodiversity hotspots

Mountains are hugely important for biodiversity: mountains: increasing human populations, about half of the world’s biodiversity hotspots the expansion and intensification of are located in highland or mountain regions agriculture, the exploitation of natural (Myers et al. 2000). There are many reasons resources, infrastructure development for this high biodiversity, including the varied and unsustainable tourism practices have physical terrain across steep altitudinal gradients transformed many mountain regions around that has encouraged a high number of endemic the world, leading to the fragmentation species, the historically low human population of natural habitats and replacement by densities and the convergence of several human-dominated landscapes (Peters et ecosystem boundaries in one place. Central Asian al. 2019). Conservation in the twenty-first mountains are currently considered a biodiversity century needs to fully consider and plan for hotspot by Conservation International, due to all the impacts of climate change. Climate their rich combination of endemic species of change is an important driver of change in plants, mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians ecosystems, in the behaviour of individual and freshwater fish. species and their prey, and perhaps just as crucially, in human behaviour, which has Many of the same societal forces driving important feedback loops for ecosystems biodiversity loss in lowland areas affect and individual species.

7 Effects of climate change on the snow leopard

Climate change in Central Asia: key increase in summer precipitation was recorded in trends the southern part of the region in mountainous areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan Extensive modelling of future climate change (ibid.). Temperatures are projected to continue impacts on temperature, precipitation, glacier increasing, regardless of the climate scenario, until melt, runoff and vegetation has been conducted the mid-twenty-first century (Hock et al. 2019). for the snow leopard range area in recent years. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Global trends and predictions The observed trend across the entire Central Precipitation patterns in mountain regions are Asian region is also evident in the two countries of often heterogenous because they are influenced Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which exhibited a trend by shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation. of increased aridity in the summer alongside greater Globally, the trend is towards lower snowfall and precipitation in spring and autumn. Mean annual reduced accumulation, especially at lower altitudes, precipitation observations only revealed a slight due to higher temperatures. Temperature increase increase in recent decades (Kyrgyz Republic, State in mountainous areas (+0.3°C per decade) has Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry outpaced the global trend (+0.2°C), highlighting just and United Nations Development Programme how sensitive the environment is to the warming 2013; Republic of Tajikistan, State Administration for climate (Hock et al. 2019). Hydrometeorology Committee on Environmental Protection 2014; Aalto et al. 2017). Central Asia Temperature observations since 1950 for Central Direct impacts of the climate on the Asia indicate an overall increasing trend in annual snow leopard and seasonal temperatures with a particular increase in spring and increasingly frequent Physiological impacts warmer winters. Overall, these observations Snow leopards are adapted to some of the showed an increase of 0.4–0.5°C per decade harshest environments on the planet. One way (Haag, Jones and Samimi 2019). Over the last 70 in which the snow leopard has adapted to survive years, there were no significant changes in annual in these environments is through its physiology. rainfall in the Central Asia region. However, an Oxygen is scarcer at altitude, and this cat’s

Table 1: Climate observations and predictions for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Country Precipitation Temperature

Mean annual Seasonal change Observed trend Global mountain observations observations (1961–1990) modelling

Kyrgyzstan (1961–1990) Higher aridity in the +0.5°C/10 yrs Slight increase last 20 years +0.3°C/10 yrs Tajikistan (1883–2010) Intensification of +0.4°C/10 yrs Slight increase droughts in the south

Source(s): Kyrgyz Republic, State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry and United Nations Development Programme 2013; Aalto et al. 2017; Hock et al. 2019; Haag, Jones and Samimi 2019

8 As the effects of climate change are rapidly descending on the wildlife and the lands upon which local livelihoods depend, I’m glad that thanks to the UNEP Vanishing Treasures programme we have the opportunity to work with communities to identify ways these effects can be buffered. Nature-based tourism holds the greatest promise, despite the current SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, as do forms of agribusiness with a low impact on the environment, such as sustainable bee-keeping and sustainable harvesting of medical plants in the project territory involving female Therepresentatives impacts of climateof those changecommunities. and human activities Theon impacts the– Kenje snow of Sultanbaeva, climateleopard change inIlbirs Central Foundation and Asia human activities on the snow leopard in Central Asia MAN ACT HU IVITIES Arable farming UMAN ACTLivestockIVI husbandry Tourism H TIES Poorly planned Poaching/hunting Infrastructure Arable farming

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9 Corrals like the one shown below could be improved to keep livestock safe from predators at night, for example by adding mesh roofing as shown above. Credits: ANCOT 2020 and T. Rosen

10 blood composition features a high number of red blood cells, as well as a large concentration of haemoglobin, which is common among montane mammals (Marma and Yunchis 1968). Additional studies on the snow leopard genome have identified specific genetic determinants probably related to adaptation to high altitudes, but these are still poorly understood (McCarthy and Mallon 2016; Janecka et al. 2020). Further studies need to be conducted to better understand the snow leopard’s tolerance to hypoxia, potential regional differences and the ability of snow leopards to track prey or habitat shifts.

Direct effects of climate change on physiology are still largely unknown. A potential direct impact could be an increase in prevalence of disease (Kock et al. 2018). Nonetheless, indirect impacts such as warmer temperatures and fluctuating precipitation over mountain areas is likely to modify the plant distribution in the snow leopard’s habitat (Forrest et al. 2012), the effects of which are expected to ripple up the food chain and affect the behaviour and distribution of its prey species, such as wild sheep and goats, as well as marmots and lagomorphs (hares, pikas) (Kitchener, Driscoll and Yamaguchi 2016). Habitat loss associated with climate warming could reduce rangewide snow leopard habitat by 23% from current conditions and increase fragmentation Fresh snow leopard tracks in a dry lake, Tajikistan. by 30% (Li et al. 2016). Credit: tajwildlife/ANCOT

Lower water availability and their environment. However, with small glaciers Glaciers play an important role in the Central Asian disappearing, reduced snow cover and snowfields hydrological cycle. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, melting earlier during the year, streams may 15 per cent of the runoff originates from glaciers. disappear from certain areas during the dry season. This can reach up to 80 per cent during the melt This will directly affect wildlife through reduced season (Bolch et. al 2012). Substantial changes in availability of drinking water. The areas showing future glacial water runoff from the Central Asian the most changes are peripheral lower-elevation mountains is expected (Luo et al. 2018). In the Tian zones near the densely populated forelands. Shan mountains, long-term cumulative monitoring of glacier volume shows a more pronounced The ecosystem: indirect impacts of loss beginning in the 1970s. Case studies in the the climate on the snow leopard Kyrgyz Trans-Ili Alatau mountain range revealed a decrease of 30 per cent in the glacier surface from Shift in plant phenology 1955 to 1990 (Bolch 2007). The negative balance of glaciers causes a temporary increase in river Shifts in the phenology of plants can lead to runoff compared with areas without glaciers. The mismatches between seasonal patterns of plant temporarily higher availability of water for wildlife growth and the life cycles of herbivores. Across the and land use may give local people the illusion that snow leopard range, there are several studies on the the impacts of climate change are positive for them impacts of climate change, specifically warming and

11 Snow leopard equiped with a GPS tracker in Kyrgyzstan. Credit: Sebastian Kennerknecht precipitation, on rangelands. These studies suggest A progressive shift in the tree line towards higher uncertainty of climate impacts on vegetation and altitudes is considered a major change for the snow biomass, as they have reported both a decline and leopard. The alpine zone is expected to shrink at increase in vegetation cover and biomass, influenced the expense of the forested sub-alpine zone and by site-level environmental differences (Kohli et bring the snow leopard into competition with other al. 2020). Studies from other regions such as the predators that are better adapted to forest habitats European Alps suggested that faster plant growth (Forrest et al. 2012). Changes in seasonal patterns may also lead to a shorter period of availability of temperature and humidity can lead to a decline of high-quality forage over a large spatial scale, or increase in vegetation productivity. In turn, the decreasing the opportunities for mountain ungulates latter may cause the displacement of competitively such as the Alpine ibex Capra ibex to exploit high- weaker plant species with further effects on the quality forage (Pettorelli et al. 2007). ecosystem, among other effects. On the other hand, productivity decreases in key forage species The length of the winter season may also induce a in areas with already low primary production may population change in wild ungulates. Long winters make such areas unsuitable for some of the snow with high snow cover reduce the survival of the leopard’s prey species. Alpine ibex (Jacobson et al. 2004). This is also the case for short snow seasons, which can induce Changes in snow leopard habitats in Kyrgyzstan a drop in juvenile survival due to poorly studied and Tajikistan factors that are likely to be related to parasite Climate change is expected to impact the snow infections and interspecific competition (Mignatti leopard’s suitable habitat, modifying its global et al. 2012). range. Modelling based on greenhouse gases

12 Figure 2: Projected changes in distribution of snow leopard habitat by 2080 under the IPCC Scenario A1B. Green, unaltered habitat areas; blue, new habitat areas; red, habitat loss; gray dashed line, boundary between the northern and southern snow leopard range areas (35°N). Source: Farrington and Li (2016). Reproduced with permission from Elsevier.

(GHG), aerosols and other pollutant emissions in respectively, by 2080. However, the number of a future world of rapid economic growth with a patches of habitat is expected to decrease by 36 global population increase showed contrasting per cent in Kyrgyzstan, indicating that this habitat results on each side of the Himalayas. A shift of will become more fragmented, although it is suitable habitat northward is expected for the snow expected to remain stable in Tajikistan (Farrington leopard, leading to a total range increase of about and Li, 2016). 60 per cent for the seven northernmost snow leopard range states (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). However, fragmentation of the habitat into smaller and higher altitude ranges, coupled with a higher tree line, can alter prey species’ distribution and create new competition with other predators that are better adapted to shrubs and forested land. In this context, snow leopards are predicted to predate on livestock around urban dwellings, which, in turn, could amplify human- wildlife conflicts (Forrest et al. 2012).

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are located north of the Himalayas where the snow leopard habitat A snow leopard captured on camera during winter. is predicted to increase by 9 and 5 per cent, Credit: iStock/through-my-lens

13 Human responses to climate change and their impacts on the snow leopard

Direct impacts on the snow leopard wildlife resources. Poaching has also become a practice of powerful individuals. Trophy hunting Human-wildlife conflict of certain prey species is permitted by law in Among the major impacts of climate change are both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and is regulated the change in plant phenology, the shift of the by quotas. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, the quota treeline to higher altitudes, and increased risk includes 80 argali sheep Ovis ammon and 350 for natural disasters. This may change livestock Siberian ibex Capra sibirica per annum and in herding patterns and pasture management. Such Tajikistan, it includes 90 argali sheep and a changes in land use could exert greater pressure varying number of Siberian ibex. However, there on wildlife, including wild prey species and are also cases of illegal trophy hunting, and even livestock, as they will increase competition for if these poachers display their trophies on social resources. It is uncertain how the interactions media, they and the organizers of these illegal between the snow leopard and livestock could hunts face very little risk of being held to account change. Potentially, livestock attacks could (Rosen 2015). Cases of human-wildlife conflicts increase due to decreased wild prey availability can also lead to the capture of snow leopards for or livestock moving into snow leopard habitat. illegal trade. This in turn could have an impact on livelihoods, and result in increased retaliatory killing. Indirect impacts on the snow leopard An increased frequency of natural disasters impacting livelihoods may further exacerbate Livestock grazing the conflict. One of the major impacts of climate change in Central Asia is an increase in grazing pressure Poaching at middle and high altitudes (International Fund At the end of the 1980s, most of the snow for Agricultural Development, Climate Research leopards in the Soviet Union were found in Foundation and Institute for Hunger Studies Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. At the end of the Soviet 2013). At elevations of less than 1,500 metres era, people were facing very difficult economic above sea level, heat stress will be the major challenges, especially in rural areas, and they concern, with maximum temperatures above turned to opportunistic sources of revenue such 30°C creating harsher conditions for pastures as poaching that drastically decreased the number and livestock. Middle altitudes – between of snow leopards and prey species in the region 1,500 and 2,500 metres above sea level – will (Koshkarev and Vyrypaev 2000). More recently, be less exposed to heat stress, and even milder poaching is often done by specialized people winters alongside predicted small increases in who are not necessarily the poorest. It is often precipitation in spring and autumn may thus related to lack of legal access and ownership of improve the conditions for pasture activity. At

During my lifetime, I’ve already observed that summers are getting longer, starting mid-April and lasting until October, and tend to be hotter and drier because of the effects of climate change. I worry that we won’t have enough fodder for livestock, since grass on the pastures is burning faster than before. This means herders keep moving higher, into wildlife habitats. The wildlife is also struggling as we’re competing for the same spaces and stealing their food. – Aida Ibraeva, a representative of Shumkar-Tor Community-based Conservancy, Tar-Suu, Chon Kemin, Kyrgyzstan

14 Climate change impact on human-wildlife conflict

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elevations of more than 2,500 metres above sea In Nepal, the combination of a higher treeline level, the higher temperature will benefit the and increased livestock grazing resulted pasture land, some parts of which may provide in increased crop raiding by bharal sheep, better conditions for livestock. followed by snow leopards, thus increasing depredation of livestock. This chain of events Climate change will create more favourable negatively impacted the livelihoods of local conditions for vegetation to grow in pasture inhabitants (Aryal, Brunton and Raubenheimer lands at middle and high altitudes, with 2013). Johansson et al. (2015) found that in a longer pastoral seasons. In Central Asia, livestock-dominated landscape in Mongolia, livestock is likely to roam at higher altitudes snow leopards mainly prey on wild ungulates and and create competition for resources with opportunistically kill livestock about 27% of the local wildlife, as evidenced in other parts of time. In addition, wild ungulates could potentially the snow leopard range. In the mountains of find themselves affected by forage competition, China, a similar situation resulted in grassland disease transmission, and other carnivores such degradation, negatively impacting the wild as uncontrolled herding dogs (Ostrowski and prey of the snow leopard (Riordan et al. 2012). Gilbert 2016).

15 Nonetheless, when livestock graze in vast areas conditions is considered an extremely difficult of the snow leopard and ungulates’ habitats, practice. Repeated droughts, lack of irrigation the carrying capacity of the environment for and decreasing land productivity are just some of wild ungulates is reduced, and their fitness and the reasons that people choose not to engage in reproductive success are also impacted. High arable farming (Kerven et al. 2011). In the context livestock stocking rates, earlier spring grazing of climate change, a longer growing season – if and insufficient rotation of pastures during and not limited by water availability – may trigger the between seasons are some of the reasons why the expansion of arable farming at higher altitudes rangelands can become degraded. Livestock may and the transformation of rangelands into arable move higher up the mountain valleys and slopes fields or support the production of forage for to find forage, which will in turn have a greater livestock. More winter forage allowing for more impact on wildlife and its habitat. livestock may eventually result in higher pressure on pasture lands and increase their degradation. Farming practices and other land uses Most of the agricultural land in Kyrgyzstan and In the Pamirs the teresken subshrub Tajikistan is semi-arid or arid, and therefore Krascheninnikovia ceratoides have always been it can only be used for crop cultivation if it is collected as fuel for cooking, baking and occasionally irrigated. Most arable farming is possible at for heating, but after the collapse of the Soviet lower elevations because of currently more Union and its subsidized energy supply it became favourable temperatures and water availability. In a major source of energy (Kraudzun et al. 2014). rural mountainous areas, crop farming is mostly Under harsh climatic conditions, the plant grows a family operation. The crops are reserved for very slowly and the uprooted shrubs are often their own consumption, as farming in these several decades old. The degradation of teresken

Herders with their livestock in the mountains of Tajikistan. Credit: ANCOT 2020

16 stands in the more easily accessible areas is causing forage shortages in pasture lands, leading to productivity losses for livestock owners and forcing livestock deeper into the habitat of wild ungulates.

Tourism Tourism plays an increasing role in economic activities across Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Skiing, hiking and yurt camping in national parks are becoming more popular. These activities may cause local disturbances and garbage accumulation, potentially impacting wildlife. However, tourism activities that are enrolled in conservation management schemes can also prove beneficial for local livelihoods, creating new streams of income, and can reduce reliance on Asiatic ibex in Tajikistan. Credit: ANCOT 2020 traditional activities, which may help to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts (Maheshwari and benefits at the local level (Alexander et al. 2019). Sathyakumar 2019). Responsible tourism towards Ensuring that both women and men benefit from snow leopard conservation should focus on four alternative livelihood measures is necessary key principles: minimizing the impact, promoting to gain the support of the entire community, awareness and respect, seeking conservation as well as the promotion of gender equality in benefits and providing opportunities for financial environmental governance.

The risk of zoonotic diseases to the snow leopard

Limited information is available on potential bodies or being parasitized by waterborne zoonotic diseases in wild snow leopards, but pathogens (Esson et al. 2019). Greater this does not discount it as a threat to snow interactions between human populations and leopard conservation. Of the limited number snow leopards may also increase the risk of of studies available, one study in Mongolia transmission of zoonotic diseases, including detected antibodies to significant zoonotic COVID-19, of which no cases were reported pathogens in the blood of snow leopards, in snow leopard at the time of writing. More despite them not showing any clinical signs critical is the risk of transmission of infectious of disease. The pathogens identified are also diseases between livestock and wild ungulates. known to be present in wild and domestic Such potentially problematic diseases ungulates as well as scavengers such as include sarcoptic mange, contagious caprine raptors and foxes. The cause of transmission is pleuropneumonia (mycoplasmosis), peste des suggested to be indirect – sharing of common petits ruminants and foot-and-mouth disease contaminated resources such as water (Ostrowski and Gilbert 2016).

With COVID-19, nature has sent us a stronger message. To protect ourselves and Earth’s precious wildlife for the long term, we must tackle habitat and biodiversity loss. These briefs show the path to the future we all want – one where people’s well-being and livelihoods go hand-in-hand with thriving habitats and species. – Bruno Pozzi, United Nations Environment Programme, Europe Director

17 Potential solutions

There are several concerns regarding the future needs. A gender-sensitive approach should be of the snow leopard and the links between used, taking into consideration the participation climate change and societal development are and contribution of women, including in decision- complex. However, there are solutions that making roles. Similar consideration should be given can contribute to mitigation and adaptation to other societal divisions such as ethnicity and strategies. The governments of Kyrgyzstan and class. Knowledge sharing should be focused on Tajikistan have developed policies to support climate-risk workshops and development of key conservation in their respective countries adaptation interventions at the local level. through the creation of specific protected areas for snow leopards and their prey, as well Adapt the policy and legal framework in as through penalties to dissuade individuals Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to ensure an even from harming snow leopards. To achieve this more climate-smart framework goal, it is essential to build the infrastructure for future research and to sustain and develop In order for the above recommendations to communication between communities, local and be sustainable, long-term and comprehensive, national policymakers, and researchers. climate-smart thinking needs to be mainstreamed and placed at the heart of government policy, Support communities’ mitigation and expenditure (budgets) and planning. This means adaptation strategies for climate change there should be close dialogue and links between science and policy, and adequate support and To mitigate human-wildlife conflict, it is beneficial capacity training on climate change, its impacts to create synergies between an ecosystem-based and possible mitigation and adaptation responses adaptation approach and a community-based provided to policymakers at both local and approach. The former focuses on rebuilding national levels. Coordination between different and protecting ecosystems to provide essential sectors regarding climate action, which may have ecosystem services in the face of climate change an impact on the snow leopard, its habitats and (Munang et al. 2013), while the latter ensures that local communities, is also key. the response addresses local vulnerabilities to climate change and builds on local structures. Supporting direct incentives for creating alternative livelihood opportunities would Planned activities include improving the diversify the local economy, which, in turn, would infrastructure of corrals to protect livestock from reduce the pressure on the snow leopard and snow leopard attacks, finding solutions to improve prey species’ habitat exerted by livestock grazing grazing management in order to limit livestock activity. Ensuring active participation in and pressure on wildlife and livestock insurance equitable sharing of the benefits arising from to compensate for losses from depredation. these livelihood opportunities across gender, Vaccination programmes or natural disaster ethnicity, class and other social divisions is key. insurance programmes could reduce impacts of The collection of sex-disaggregated data further livestock loss due to climate risks. Regulated legal documents and supports gender mainstreaming hunting of prey species can also offer opportunities efforts in sustainable wildlife management. and incentives for the local inhabitants who conserve these species and their habitats, provided Conservation schemes need to be adapted to active participation and equitable benefit sharing new activities such as ecotourism, which is a are in place. The involvement of local communities growth sector in the region. New revenues from is vital to these activities. To gain the support of overnight stays and local products would benefit the community, solutions need to be designed local families, who would rely less on livestock, and implemented in partnership with relevant thereby reducing human-wildlife conflict. However, community partners and take into account their as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, over-

18 One of ANCOT’s goals is to turn the local perception of snow leopards from a vermin predator into a useful species. To do so, we use a broad spectrum of conservation tools such as sustainable wildlife management, tourism, and donor- sponsored compensation projects. In the last 10 years, we’ve helped Tajik communities strengthen their livestock husbandry to avoid predator attacks by advising on herding methods and reinforcing more than 100 livestock corrals. – Munavvar Alidodov, CEO Association of Nature Conservation Organizations of Tajikistan (ANCOT) reliance on the ecotourism sector can lead to high both baseline data on species distributions, as short- to medium-term risks for communities well as modelling efforts, in order to understand solely dependent on this activity. This calls for a habitat suitability for snow leopards under various diversification of approaches. More traditional climate scenarios and identify and select possible activities such as sustainable wild ungulate hunting mitigation and adaptation strategies. In addition, – if carried out under the auspices of conservation research should identify possible scenarios for management – can help preserve wildlife habitats human behaviour in response to climate change and benefit the snow leopard in the longer term. and how this may impact the habitat of the snow leopard and its prey. Target and fund scientific research to better understand the climate change-induced risks Finally, research should be interdisciplinary, for snow leopards and the ecosystems in involving a diverse and gender-inclusive pool Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan of climate modellers, conservationists, wildlife professionals, social scientists and adaptation Scientific research on the impacts of climate practitioners, while also being grounded in local change and their possible consequences should realities, utilizing the best available local and be targeted and tailored to understand and traditional ecological knowledge to gather a holistic assess the likely impacts on the most important and integrated overview of possible impact chains ecosystems in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for the induced by climate change risks, including how they snow leopard and its prey species. This requires will impact human-wildlife conflict.

Policies in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan related to the snow leopard

The snow leopard is included in the Red National Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection Data Book of Tajikistan as “a rare species, Priorities (NSLEP) plan (Saidov et al. 2016). decreasing in number” and is regulated under the country’s laws on environmental Hunting, possession and trade of snow protection (1993), the animal world (2007) leopards are prohibited in Kyrgyzstan and protected areas (2012). Snow leopard under the law on the animal world (1999). poaching is punishable with a penalty of Moreover, the snow leopard is listed in the US$1,000 to 50,000. Tajikistan is party to the country’s Red Data Book. Harming a snow Convention on the Conservation of Migratory leopard is punishable with a penalty of about Species of Wild Animals (CMS, ratified in US$8,400. Kyrgyzstan is party to the CMS 2000) and to the Convention on International (since 2014) and CITES (Accession 2007). Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna Protection of specific areas for the snow and Flora (CITES, accession 2016), which both leopard was also identified as a national provide international legal protection to the conservation target through the Global Snow snow leopard and some of its prey species. Leopard and Ecosystem Protection Program In 2013, the Tajik Government endorsed the (GSLEP) in 2014 (Davletbakov et al. 2016).

19 References

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21 This brief is one in a series that also includes the mountain gorilla and the Royal Bengal tiger, produced under the Vanishing Treasures programme. Its goal is to highlight how climate change is – and will be – impacting the conservation of the snow leopard in Central Asia, particularly within the countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The brief examines how climate change has multiple, and often interacting, impacts on the snow leopard – be it on its physiology, on the ecosystems and prey species on which it depends, or on the behaviour of humans living in its surroundings – with important feedback loops that directly affects the conservation of this magnificent animal.