Status of the Mountain Ungulate Prey of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera Uncia in the Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi, Mongolia

Status of the mountain ungulate prey of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in the Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi, Mongolia

L KHAGVASUMBEREL T UMURSUKH,KULBHUSHANSINGH R. SURYAWANSHI C HARUDUTT M ISHRA,THOMAS M. MC C ARTHY and B AZARTSEREN B OLDGIV

Abstract The availability of wild prey is a critical predictor of snow leopard Panthera uncia (Schaller, , ). carnivore density. However, few conservation programmes Relatively little information is available on the abundance have focused on the estimation and monitoring of wild ungu- and population trends of these mountain ungulates, how- late populations and their trends, especially in the remote ever, because of the remoteness of their habitats and a mountains of Central Asia. We conducted double-observer lack of robust scientific studies (Singh & Milner-Gulland, surveys to estimate the populations of ibex Capra sibirica ). Changing livestock husbandry practices (Berger and argali Ovis ammon in the mountainous regions of Tost et al., ), mining and associated development Local Protected Area, South Gobi province, Mongolia, which (Farrington, ; Kaczensky et al., ), and poaching is being considered for designation as a Nature Reserve. We (Pratt et al., ) threaten the survival of many of these un- also conducted demographic surveys of the more abundant gulate species and the predators that depend on them. ibex to examine their sex-ratio and the survival of young dur- The availability of wild-ungulate prey is a critical deter- ing –. The estimated ibex population remained minant of carnivore density (Karanth et al., ). However, stable in  and  and the estimated argali population in the mountains of Asia the rugged habitat and lack of suf- increased from  in  to  in . The biomass of ficient expertise have posed a challenge to the estimation wild ungulates was c. % that of livestock. Mortality in and monitoring of ungulate populations (Singh & Milner- young ibex appeared to increase after weaning, at the age of Gulland, ). Many of the established methods of ungulate  months. We estimated the population of wild ungulates population estimation, such as distance sampling, are diffi- was sufficient to support – adult snow leopards cult to implement in mountainous terrain because of the in- Panthera uncia. The adult snow leopard population in our applicability of their assumptions (Suryawanshi et al., ). study area during –, estimated independently using Alternatives such as aerial surveys are expensive and often camera-trap-based mark–recapture methods, was –. unsafe in mountainous landscapes. Based on our results we identify the Tost Local Protected The primary occupation of the local pastoralists is cash- Area as an important habitat for the conservation of these un- mere production from goats. In response to demand from gulates and their predator, the Endangered snow leopard, and the global market for cashmere, the goat population in recommend elevation of its status to a Nature Reserve. large parts of the mountains of Central Asia is increasing (Bhatnagar et al., ; Berger et al., ). Livestock species Keywords Argali, Central Asia, double-observer survey, such as goats are reported to compete with wild ungulate ibex, Panthera uncia, snow leopard, ungulate prey species for forage in other regions (Bagchi et al., ; Mishra et al., ), and the presence of herders and herd- Introduction ing dogs creates competition for space (Namgail et al., ). Berger et al. () reported that the biomass of native sia’s mountains support a rich diversity of ungulates wild ungulates across seven study areas in Mongolia, India, Athat sustain large carnivores such as the Endangered and China’s Tibetan Plateau is now , % that of livestock. Conservation of native ungulates alongside a pastoral indus-

LKHAGVASUMBEREL TUMURSUKH*† Snow Leopard Conservation Foundation, Peace try such as cashmere production will require rigorous mon- Avenue, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia itoring and incentives for wildlife-friendly pastoralism

KULBHUSHANSINGH R. SURYAWANSHI‡ (Corresponding author) and CHARUDUTT (Berger et al., ). Monitoring of wild ungulate abundance MISHRA‡ Snow Leopard Trust, Sunnyside Avenue, Seattle, Washington, USA is therefore fundamental to any such effort (Ale et al., ; E-mail [email protected] Xu et al., ), and will also facilitate assessment of the size THOMAS M. MCCARTHY Panthera, Redmond, Washington, USA of the snow leopard population that could be sustained by BAZARTSEREN BOLDGIV National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia the available prey. *Also at: Snow Leopard Trust, Sunnyside Avenue, Seattle, Washington, USA The Tost Local Protected Area is an important corridor †Also at: National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia ‡Also at: Nature Conservation Foundation, Mysore, India between the Great Gobi Strictly Protected Area A in the west and the Gobi Gurvan Saikhan National Park in the north. Received  September . Revision requested  December . Accepted  December . First published online  June . An ongoing radio-telemetry study of the snow leopard has

Oryx, 2016, 50(2), 214–219 © 2015 Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605314001203 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.202.226, on 02 Oct 2021 at 15:52:49, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605314001203 Status of snow leopard prey in Mongolia 215

FIG. 1 Map of the survey area (dark shade). Existing Protected Areas are shaded (light). The Tost Local Protected Area is denoted by dotted line in the map and solid black in the inset of Mongolia.

already recorded one case of a subadult snow leopard dis- which comprise the snow leopard habitats of the Tost persing from the Tost Mountains in the Local Protected Local Protected Area. We also examined the demography Area to the Nemegt Mountains in the Gobi Gurvan of the two species, to understand the survival of various Saikhan National Park. Local Protected Area status affords age–sex categories of the ibex. a relatively low level of protection under Mongolian law, however, and it is difficult to protect the area from mining. Supported by the local government authorities, local pastor- Study area alists and conservationists, the elevation of the protection  status of Tost Local Protected Area to that of Nature Our study area comprised , km of the mountainous re- Reserve is being considered by the National Government. gion of Tost, in South Gobi province, Mongolia (Fig. ). The Thus, there is an urgent need for robust information on Tost Local Protected Area was declared by the administra- the conservation value and potential of this region. tion of Gurvantes soum (district) in October , after The snow leopard population of the Tost Mountains is mining leases were issued for the region. The Protected being monitored closely using camera trap-based multi- Area has high conservation value for species such as the season models (Sharma et al., ). However, little informa- Endangered snow leopard, and argali and ibex (McCarthy tion has so far been available on the status of their primary et al., ), and is valued by the local pastoralists for grazing wild-ungulate prey, the ibex Capra sibirica and argali Ovis livestock. The temperature in the region ranges between ammon. The ibex is one of the preferred prey species of the −°C in winter and +°C in summer, and the altitude is snow leopard across its range (Jumabay-Uulu et al., ; ,–, m. The Nemegt Mountains of the Gobi Lyngdoh et al., ). Gurvan Saikhan National Park are north of the surveyed Up to % of the snow leopard’s diet in the Tost Local area. Towards the west the study area is connected to the Protected Area consists of livestock (Shehzad et al., ), Great Gobi Strictly Protected Area A via a fragmented net- and retaliatory persecution of snow leopards by local herders work of hillocks. The international border with China lies is an important conservation concern. The availability of wild c.  km south of the study area. The town of Gurvantes prey has significant implications for the livestock predation and the Noyon Mountains lie east of the study area. behaviour of wild carnivores (Suryawanshi et al., ; Livestock herding is the primary occupation of the local Odden et al., ;Gervasietal.,). Thus, understanding people. Goats (,) and sheep (,) are the most com- the availability and trends of wild ungulate prey over time is mon livestock, followed by camels (), horses () and important for conservation management in the region. cattle (), based on a census conducted in  (LT, unpubl. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the data). Ibex, argali and tolai hare Lepus tolai are the common population of ibex and argali in the Tost Mountains, wild herbivores in the region, and snow leopard, wolf Canis

lupus, red fox Vulpes vulpes, corsac fox Vulpes corsac and (– years old), adult female and adult male (Schaller, ). lynx Lynx lynx are the large predators. We conducted , bootstraps to assess the % confidence intervals of the young-to-female and male-to-female Methods ratios within each survey, using herd as the sampling unit. The median values were used as the estimates of Ibex and argali populations were estimated in  and  young-to-female and male-to-female ratios, and the . using the double-observer survey method (Forsyth & and . quantiles were used as % confidence intervals. Hickling, ; Suryawanshi et al., ). In  the study  area was divided into  blocks of c.  km , depending upon the topography. Survey blocks were separated by flat Results  areas between mountain chains. The  km blocks were  Double-observer survey estimates of ibex and argali abun- further divided into cells of c.  km . The shape and size dance were  (%CI–,) and  (%CI– of each cell depended on the terrain and the logistics of ac- ) individuals in  and , (%CI–,) and cessing and surveying the area. The surveys were conducted  (%CI–)in, respectively. The mean during late autumn (– November  and – group sizes of ibex encountered during the surveys were November ), which is the mating season for the ibex . and . in  and , respectively. Mean group and argali in the region. It is usually easier to detect ibex sizes of argali were . and . in  and , respectively. during the mating season as they form larger groups, remain − This yields density estimates of . and . ibex km and active for longer periods and are less easily disturbed. Eight − . and . argali km in  and , respectively. The trained observers were divided into four teams, and each difference in ibex population estimate for the  years was not team surveyed one cell in  day, walking along predeter- statistically significant (z = ., one-tailed P = .). The in- mined trails and scanning using binoculars. Based on initial crease in the argali population estimate was significant (z = trials, the second observer started the survey c. – min- ., one-tailed P = .). All parameters are summarized in utes after the first. This duration was chosen to balance po- Table . tential overestimation as a result of evasive movement of The ratio of kids (,  year) to adult females was . (% ungulates after the first survey and potential underestima- CI .–.)inMay and . (%CI.–.)in tion if the time between the two surveys was too short, re- November  (Fig. a). The ratio of yearlings (– years) sulting in a lack of independence between the two surveys. If to adult females was . (%CI.–.) in September the first observer came within the sight of the second, the  and . (%CI.–.) in June . The ratio of second observer waited to increase the distance between young to female decreased in summer (August) and again the two. The protocol precluded any unintentional visual after winter, with a significant drop after weaning at  cues; for example, prolonged interest in a particular direc- months of age. The adult male-to-female ratio showed a tion by one observer could influence the other observer’s general decreasing trend from . (%CI.–.)in survey. May  to . (%CI.–.) in November  The observers recorded ungulate group size, age × sex and increased to . (%CI.–.) in November categorization, distance to group, the name of the pasture  (Fig. b). This suggests male-biased mortality in  where the group was encountered, and any other matters and female-biased mortality in . The highest mean that could help identify the observed groups. At the end group sizes were recorded in May  (.) and June  of the survey the observers discussed and identified the (.). The lowest mean group sizes were recorded in August groups seen by both observers and those seen by only one,  (.) and August  (.; Table ). based on group size and composition, location and any other notes. Density was estimated by dividing the abun-  dance estimate by the area surveyed (Oli, ; Forsyth & Discussion Hickling, ; Suryawanshi et al., ). The demography of the ibex population was surveyed We used the statistically robust double-observer survey eight times during May –November . The surveys method to estimate the abundance of ibex and argali in were carried out over – days in the same  blocks used the mountainous regions of the Tost Local Protected Area. in the double-observer surveys. We surveyed – km in The detection probabilities recorded (. and . for ibex each block, for even coverage of the study area. Areas that and argali, respectively) were lower than in other places were inaccessible by all-terrain vehicle or motorcycle were (., .; Suryawanshi et al., ) where this method surveyed on foot. Groups of ibex were observed from a has been used but our confidence intervals were reasonable distance of – m using  ×  binoculars and a because we used a larger sample size. – ×  spotting scope, and categorized according to Suryawanshi et al. () recommended that for double- the following age–sex categories: kid (,  year old), yearling observer surveys of mountain ungulates the two observers

TABLE 1 Results of spaced double-observer surveys of ibex Capra ibex and argali Ovis ammon in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia (Fig. ), in  and .

2012 2013 Variable Ibex Argali Ibex Argali No. of groups recorded by both surveyors 35 3 37 5 No. of groups recorded by first surveyor only 61 6 71 13 No. of groups recorded by second surveyor only 28 2 35 4 Estimated no. of groups 171.44 14 208.39 30.67 Variance in estimated no. of groups 221.12 9 351.11 39.29 Mean group size 5.24 7.73 5.04 7.5 Variance in mean group size 0.05 2.24 0.01 0.98 Estimated population 899 108 1,051 230 Variance in estimated population 7514.89 995.36 9559.01 3085.62 ± 95% confidence interval 727–1,071 47–169 857–1,245 120–340 Total area (km2) 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 Density 0.64 0.08 0.75 0.16 Distance walked per survey (km) 720 720 720 720 Estimated detection probability for first survey 0.56 0.6 0.51 0.55 Estimated detection probability for second survey 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.28

be separated in space or time to minimize potential under- estimation as a result of autocorrelation between the observers. However, this recommendation was based on their study in the Himalayas (Suryawanshi et al., ). In Tost the animals were comparatively shy and our initial observa- tions indicated that such a separation was likely to result in overestimation because of animals leaving the survey area between the two surveys. We therefore used a minimal – minute separation between the observers to minimize overestimation. Despite this change, a lower detection probability was recorded consistently for the second observer, which suggests there was evasive movement by animals after the first survey. For future surveys we suggest the use of Bayesian approaches proposed by Barker et al. ()to address the potential biases in population estimates. The estimated ibex population size remained similar across the  years of monitoring. The argali population estimate, however, doubled from  to . We suspect this increase may be attributed to the movement of argali from smaller hills in the north and west of the survey area, which are used by argali but do not contain ibex habitat. By November  a drought in the southern Gobi region had restricted the movement of ungulates to around the re- maining waterholes. Occasionally we observed aggregations of argali in the vicinity of a waterhole on the edge of our study site in late October (LT, pers. obs.). Our demographic surveys cannot be used to estimate the ibex kid mortality for the first few weeks after birth; beyond : : FIG. 2 (a) Young adult female ratio and (b) male female ratio this time up to  months, however, mortality rates among of ibex Capra ibex in Tost Local Protected Area (Fig. ), from ibex kids are low. A lower young-to-female ratio, with wide May to November  and from June to November . Survival of young ibex dropped significantly during winter and confidence intervals, recorded in August may be attributable post-weaning. Points are the median values of , bootstraps to sampling error, as ibex become difficult to sight as summer to estimate the % confidence interval (error bars), with herd as progresses. Importantly, the young-to-female ratio declined the sampling unit. after  year, which we suspect was largely a result of predation

TABLE 2 Numbers of ibex assigned to various age–sex categories during surveys in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

2012 2013 Category May Aug. Sep. Nov. June Aug. Sep. Nov. Kid 31 19 46 51 42 34 54 56 Yearling 17 12 8 12 27 12 12 11 Adult female 61 48 87 100 72 61 82 72 Adult male 59 57 54 58 48 49 55 78 Mean group size 7.3 4 5.22 5.97 7.5 4.7 5.2 5.2 Total no. of groups 23 34 37 35 25 31 38 41 Total no. of individuals 168 136 195 221 189 156 203 217

when the yearlings started feeding by themselves in the herd. domestic goats and sheep and that of ibex (Bagchi et al., The adult female-to-male ratios were lowest at the start (May ). Other studies have found that competition for forage ) and end of the monitoring (November ), peaking in from livestock and disturbance from herding dogs could re- November . Such a pattern could be a result of either duce the density of wild ungulate herbivores (Mishra et al., sighting bias in the demographic surveys (separate from the ; Namgail et al., ). This could be a cause of relative- double-observer surveys) or selective (sex-biased) predation ly low ibex biomass compared to livestock in the region, and by carnivores. We consider our surveys to be unbiased as requires further investigation. they covered the entire study area and all ibex habitats. The Our results suggest that the Tost Mountains are an import- surrounding hills in the north and west are not suitable habi- ant site for the conservation of ibex, argali and the Endangered tat for ibex. Such a pattern could also arise as a result of long- snow leopard. This area also serves as a corridor connecting distance movement by male ibex. We do not think this was the snow leopard and ibex habitats of the Great Gobi Strictly the cause, however, as we surveyed a relatively large area. We Protected Area and Gobi Gurvan Saikhan National Park. We recommend further investigation of the hypothesis of gender- are completing a management plan for the Local Protected biased predation, using marked animals. Area, and continue towork with relevant stakeholders, includ- Oli () recorded a  : – ratio of snow leopard to ing the local community and the local government, to have blue sheep Pseudois nayaur, by weight. Blue sheep is another the Local Protected Area elevated in status to a Nature preferred prey of the snow leopard (Lyngdoh et al., )in Reserve by the Mongolian parliament. Despite its significance other parts of the snow leopard’s range. Considering the for conservation and pastoralism, the Local Protected Area re- mean weight of ibex to be  kg (Hess, ), argali  kg mains vulnerable to the threat of mining; designation as a (Valdez, ) and snow leopard  kg (Oli, ), the esti- Nature Reserve would protect it against this threat. mated biomass of wild herbivores in the Tost Mountains was , kg in  and , kg in . Using Oli’s () predator : prey ratios we estimate that the ibex and Acknowledgements argali populations of the Tost Mountains could have sup- ’ ported c. – and – adult snow leopards in  and We thank People s Trust for Endangered Species for fund- – , respectively. Carbone & Gittleman () suggested ing this work, and the Fondation Segré Whitley Fund for that , kg of prey could support c.  kg of carnivore Nature, David Shepherd Wildlife Foundation, and Disney biomass. Using their conversion, our estimated prey bio- Worldwide Conservation Fund for supporting our pro- mass would have been adequate to support  adult snow grammes in Mongolia and across the snow leopard range. leopards in  and  in . Both these estimates of We thank Panthera, a partner organization in the long-term snow leopard populations are comparable to the estimates ecological study, who provided core funding, equipment, of  (%CI–) and  (%CI–) determined by staff and expertise. We thank Odbayar Tumendemberel, means of camera-trap-based mark–recapture in the same Koustubh Sharma, Purevjav Lkhagvajav and Bayarjargal  (but larger, , km ) study area (Sharma et al., ). Agvaantseren for help during the various stages of the Although the estimated density of wild ungulates (. work, and the rangers from Gobi Gurvan Saikhan − and . km in  and , respectively) may seem suf- National Park who participated in the surveys. ficient to support – adult snow leopards, these densities are an order of magnitude lower than the stocking density of − livestock (. km ) in this region. Consistent with Berger References et al. (), the biomass of native ungulates in Tost Local ALE, S.B., YONZON,P.&THAPA,K.() Recovery of snow leopard Protected Area is c. % of the livestock biomass. It is Uncia uncia in Sagarmatha (Mount Everest) National Park, Nepal. known that there is a significant overlap in the diet of Oryx, , –.

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