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ICAP Global Shipping Markets Daily

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ICAP Global Shipping Markets Daily ISSN 2046-7575 Global Shipping Markets Daily Report | Monday 8 October, 2012 Issue Number | 4198 Tanker Chartering Markets Dry Bulk Chartering Markets Baltic dry indices 1 VLCC PANAMAX BDI BCI BPI BSI BHSI INDEX 883 1921 647 791 444 A slow start to the week with limited fresh enquiries. Pacific: The general sentiment is that the Pacific day U ▲ 8 ▼ -11 ▲ 49 ▼ -4 ► 0 week U ▲ 106 ▲ 261 ▲ 208 ▼▼-34 -23 We expect another 20-25 cargoes remaining for market is improving. We are seeing a lot of fresh October against 57 vessels available in the Middle Baltic Exchange dry bulk TC averages $/day business for a Monday especially out of Indonesia. East Gulf. It is fairly quiet in the Atlantic. Rates for Indo rounds still remain unchanged 35,000 Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize compared to end of last week around $5,500 + 30,000 Suezmax $70/80K but we are also hearing some owners 25,000 The confidence that was gained towards the end of talking DOP rates. Both Owners and Charterers are 20,000 last week has been deflated slightly with a West still showing interest for short period business. Africa market cargo getting over a handful of offers 15,000 and a few ships failing subs - expect rates to Atlantic: Sentiment in the Atlantic remains positive, 10,000 even though most Owners and Charterers are continue going sideways for now. The Med. has waiting to see how things will pan out this week. For 5,000 seen slower rates with light Black Sea enquiries a trans-Atlantic round voyage most owners are now 0 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Aframax asking around the $6,000 level, with Charterers there to pay around $4,000 level. Front haul activity Baltic TC averages1 and forward curves2 Mediterranean Aframax’s were slow with weak out of the USG remains strong, with a number of $/DAY CAPE PMAX SMAX HSIZE enquiry levels putting further downward pressure on fresh stems in the market and rates hovering SPOT 11 172 5 155 8 271 6 531 the rates which currently hover at a W75 level for dayU ▼ - 65 ▲ 386 ▼ - 44 ▼ - 4 around the low $14,000s + low $400,000s on the cross-Med. voyage with ample tonnage available. CURQ 11 657 7 111 8 907 7 454 BB. dayU ▼ - 510 ▼ - 391 ▼ - 83 ▼ - 23 Some activity was seen leaving ex. Baltic with a +1Q 7 680 6 639 7 880 6 988 charterer paying W55 for a Baltic to Spanish Atlantic dayU ▼ - 353 ▼ - 336 ▼ - 95 ▼ - 75 HANDYSIZE/SUPRAMAX +2Q 9 490 8 682 9 080 7 925 voyage whilst negative sentiment ensues with Pacific: Whilst most players return in the Far East, dayU ▼ - 335 ▼ - 272 ▼ - 45 ▼ - 63 extensive tonnage remaining. +3Q 11 510 6 671 8 440 7 350 it has to be said that it has been a slow start to the dayU ▼ - 315 ▼ - 229 ▼ - 18 ▼ - 50 Panamax week with the Chinese taking their time to re-enter +4Q 13 510 8 636 8 580 8 025 the market. Rates for Indonesia/India are lower than dayU ▼ - 298 ▼ - 250 ▼ - 20 ▲ 25 A slow start to the week in the Caribbean with rates +1CAL 10 548 7 657 8 495 7 572 the same point last week, and there is still a variety flat at around the W112.5 level on 50,000 metric dayU ▼ - 325 ▼ - 272 ▼ - 45 ▼ - 41 and sufficiency of prompt tonnage in both the Indian +2CAL 13 700 9 304 10 040 8 475 tonne vessels for the Caribs/USG run. Rates are flat Ocean and Far East hoping for some resurgence in dayU ▼ - 267 ▼ - 182 ▼ - 2 ▲ 25 at W127.5 for UKC/TA voyages on 55,000 metric +3CAL 15 230 11 171 11 390 9 850 cargo interest. Short period takers are looking to tonne vessels. dayU ▼ - 170 ▼ - 115 ▼ - 56 ▼ - 13 break the $9k mark on good types, although there Capesize spot TC average and FFA front quarter Clean East is resistance to this. South Africa is still suffering 35,000 front quarter TC average uncertainty with regards to cargo readiness due to TC5 – Still waits for the injection of enquiry needed strikes in the mining and transport sector, ships in 30,000 to move off the last done rate price of W102.5. Lets ballast face the unwelcome prospect of a long wait 25,000 hope tomorrow has more in store. or simply carrying on to ECSA. 20,000 Clean West 15,000 Atlantic: With last week being somewhat of a damp squid given the numerous national holidays, 10,000 TC2 – A typical quiet Monday with tonnage stacking up; rumours of W127.5 now on subs. everybody is looking expectantly to this week for 5,000 direction. We expect activity in the Gulf to remain 0 Tanker Derivatives stunted while we wait for second half October Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Monday saw another day of low volumes with TD3 cargos to come into the market. In the south ICAP Shipping indices3 trading a point and a quarter down on Friday’s Atlantic we see rates for front haul remaining today day Δ week Δ flattish, whilst given the volume of tonnage wishing JEHSUP (52k) $/day 8 338 0 - 388 W44.25 close – it was left W43/W44. DEC took very JEHSUP (52k) index 1 108 0 - 50 little time in replicating Friday’s closing spread of to stay in the Atlantic TA levels have softened JEHMA (45k) $/day 6 625 0 - 313 W47.5/W48.5, but little further action was slightly. In the Black Sea, spot / prompt tonnage ICAP Shipping 1yr period rate assessments3 witnessed. TD7 OCT traded at W87 and TD5 saw remains, and levels continue to be flat with ratings today day Δ week Δ tight markets, but failed to trade. TC2 had an for front haul at around $13k from Charterers and CAPESIZE 170k 0 - 11,250 - 11,000 unusually quiet day, but TC14 saw NOV trade at $15k from Owners. With little seen or expected in 0 - 8,000 - 8,000 PANAMAX 72k terms of new orders, the north Continent market SUPRAMAX 52k 0 - 9,250 - 9,250 W76, again flying in the face of BITRA’s 85 HANDYMAX 45k 0 - 8,750 - 8,750 valuation. It was, however, well bid at that level. remains predictably flat. It is difficult to gauge the HANDYSIZE 28k 0 - 8,250 - 8,250 Further down the curve, TC14 Q1 2013 traded at outbound levels as so little has been fixed in the ICAP Container Derivatives 19.1$/t and was offered over at that level. With last fortnight given that Supramax scrap into East today day Δ week Δ Golden Week, Columbus Day and other assorted Med is paying about $13k expect outbound rates to $1,062.50 $0.00 -$100.00 NWE $/TEU Jul-12 holidays over the last week or so, we hope Tuesday achieve about 2/3k more than this. NWE $/TEU Aug-12 $1,250.00 $25.00 $150.00 NWE $/TEU Sep-12 $1,075.00 $0.00 -$50.00 to see the return of better volumes to the market. Thought of the Day NWE $/TEU Q3 12 $1,130.00 $10.00 $80.00 NWE $/TEU Q4 13 $1,150.00 $27.50 $60.00 Thought of the Day In the end of September, an Italian judge already NWE $/TEU Q1 13 $1,287.50 $0.00 $12.50 Capital investment for energy projects, including oil, rejected a plan which aims to invest 400 million $1,500.00 $0.00 $0.00 NWE $/TEU Q2 13 euros to modernise the ILVA steel plant whilst NWE $/TEU Jul-Dec $1,130.00 $10.00 $22.50 gas, petrochemicals and power industries, are NWE $/TEU Cal 13 $1,375.00 $0.00 $0.00 ICAP Shipping Global Shipping Markets Continues on Page 2... ICAP Shipping Tanker Assessment Route TD3 TD5 TD7 TC2 TC4 TC5 WS 35.50 57.50 85.00 130.00 135.00 110.00 expected to amount to $740 billion in the Middle East keeping it open. Yesterday Italian prosecutors U ►0.00 ►0.00 ►0.00 ►0.00 ►0.00► 0.00 and North Africa between 2013 and 2017. According ordered this plant to begin shutting down within five $/day -$1,724 $4,343 $987 $7,457 $3,457 $6,752 to the APICORP report, Saudi Arabia will be in the days because of its pollution issues. This plant is 4 2 Baltic tanker routes and ICAP Shipping forward curves lead position investing $165 billion within which the largest steel plant in Europe and it produced WS TD3 TD5 TC2 TC6 Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Saudi Basic Industries around 8.5 million tonnes of crude steel last year. SPOT 35.19 57.32 130.00 158.28 dayU ▼ -0.08 ▼ -0.18 ▼ -0.42 ▼ -0.33 Corp. (SABIC) play a vital role; It is followed by Unfortunately the shutdown of this plant seems CURMON 37.50 58.75 127.00 152.50 U.A.E ($107 billion) with Algeria coming next ($71 inevitably to threaten Italy’s iron ore imports, mainly dayU ► 0.00 ► 0.00 ► 0.00 ► 0.00 billion), outstripping both Qatar and Iran. The from Brazil. Last year Italy imported more than 11 +1M 43.25 65.00 128.00 153.00 dayU ▼ -1.00 ► 0.00 ► 0.00 ► 0.00 APICORP report also pointed out that those energy million tonnes of iron ore from Brazil.
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