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Indiana Statewide Survey Polling Analysis
On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies conducted a survey of 600 likely voters in Indiana using live interviewers, from October 15 to 20, 2018. The topline results and methodology statement are included below. This memo covers federal races; results on state and Indianapolis-specific results will be released in coming days.
U.S. Senate Race:
Mike Braun leads Sen. Joe Donnelly 47% to 43%, with 3% for Libertarian Lucy Brenton and 7% undecided, in a poll conducted three weeks before Election Day.
This result is statistically tied, due to the 3.9% margin of error applying to each data point. That is, Braun’s vote share in this poll is between 43% and 51%, while Donnelly’s vote share is between 39% and 47%. For this reason, Braun’s lead is not considered statistically significant. There are also 7% undecided, and another point or two could come from the third-party candidate (whom we tested by name on the ballot) This presents a level of uncertainty that needs to be factored into the analysis.
Braun is likely favored, but Donnelly could still win. This poll, like every other poll, is not a prediction of the vote on November 6th, nor is it meant to be. Part of the reason there is skepticism over polling is due to observers ascribing more certainty to the outcome of races than the data itself shows.
There is no difference in voter enthusiasm. 72% of Braun voters say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic to vote, compared to 74% of Donnelly voters. 42% of Braun voters say their enthusiasm is “extreme”, to 41% of Donnelly voters.
There is a 29 point gender gap, as men prefer Braun 55% - 36%, while women prefer Donnelly 39% to 49%. Independents favor Donnelly 48% - 37%. Donnelly also has higher support among Democrats (90%) than Braun does among Republicans (85%). That is not enough to overcome the state’s partisan lean.
Exploring the “Kavanaugh Effect”:
35% say that Donnelly’s opposition made them less likely to support him, compared to 30% that said more likely, and 32% who said it had no impact. There is a 25-point gender gap here, but education also plays a role here. College-educated women say “more likely” by a 43% to 31% margin, while non- college-educated women are split at 30%-29%.
Looking at intensity (which is the best predictor of action), 29% of voters said Donnelly’s no vote made them “much less likely” to support him; 25% said “much more likely”. Here, 72% of those who said “much less likely” are self-identified Republicans; while 66% of those who said “much more likely” are
“Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News” self-identified Democrats. That is to say, most people responding to this question were already likely to be voting for their preferred candidate.
It is difficult to separate from the rest of the political activity surrounding a closely contested election. However, there is some evidence of a “Kavanaugh effect”. Specifically, party self-identify seems to supersede ideology self-identity. By a 40% to 16% margin, moderate to liberal Republicans say Donnelly’s opposition made them less likely to support him; meanwhile, by a 45% to 7% margin, conservative and moderate Democrats said it made him more likely.
This suggests that the Kavanaugh vote unified the Republican Party. Given the potential for weakness among moderate and Trump-skeptical Republicans, this is a positive electoral force for Republicans.
On the flip side, those 83% of those who said “much more likely” to support Donnelly for voting against Kavanaugh are “extremely or very” enthusiastic to vote, compared to 75% who said “much less likely”. In the end, the likely impact of the Kavanaugh vote seems to have been to solidify Braun’s voter base while boosting turnout among the Democratic voting base. It is unclear how much this would have happened anyways, even without the Kavanaugh hearings.
Generic Ballot:
The Congressional generic ballot mirrors the Senate race, at 48% to 43% for Republicans. This suggests that Donnelly is not getting the crossover support he needs to win in a red state. Unlike the Senate race, there is an enthusiasm gap on the generic ballot in the Democrat’s favor. Only 66% of Republican voters say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic, compared to 77% of Democratic voters. This is unlikely to swing the tide in any of Indiana’s Congressional races, however, which are largely viewed as non- competitive.
There is a 25-pt gender gap on the generic ballot: men are voting Republican 55% to 37%, while women are voting Democratic 42% to 49%.
Trump Approval:
Trump’s job approval rating in Indiana is 52% to 46%, which is about 5 points fewer than the 57% of the vote he won in 2016. Despite the 6-point net approval, net strong approval is -2%, as 41% “strongly disapprove” to 39% who “strongly approve”. Like with the above, we see a strong gender gap here.
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Topline Results Indiana Statewide Survey n=600 likely voters October 15 - 20, 2018
October 23 Release – Select questions on state and local topics are embargoed for future release
Introduction & Screener Questions
1. First, are you or any member of your family a member of the news media, a public relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign?
No 100%
2. When there are elections for U.S. Senate and Congress, do you always vote, almost always vote, vote most of the time, vote some of the time, hardly ever vote, or never vote?
Always vote 77% Almost always vote 14% Vote most of the time 9%
3. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
Extremely enthusiastic 41% Very enthusiastic 30% Somewhat enthusiastic 19% Not too enthusiastic 6% Not at all enthusiastic 3%
DK/Refused 1%
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Ballots & Re-Election
4. If the election for United States Senate were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] Mike Bruan, the Republican, Joe Donnelly, the Democrat [END ROTATE], or Lucy Brenton, the Libertarian? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely?
TOTAL BRAUN 47% Definitely Braun 39% Likely Braun 7%
TOTAL DONNELLY 43% Definitely Donnelly 38% Likely Donnelly 5%
TOTAL BRENTON 3% Definitely Brenton 2% Likely Brenton 1%
Undecided/Refused 7%
5. If the election for the House of Representatives were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate [END ROTATE] in your congressional district? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN 48% Definitely Republican 42% Likely Republican 6%
Undecided 9%
TOTAL DEMOCRATIC 43% Definitely Democratic 39% Likely Democratic 4%
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6. [embargoed for future release]
7. As you may know, Joe Donnelly voted against confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Does his vote make you more likely or less likely to vote for him for U.S. Senate, or does it have no impact on your vote? IF MORE OR LESS LIKELY, PROBE: Is that much (more/less) likely or somewhat?
TOTAL MORE LIKELY 30% Much more likely 25% Somewhat more likely 6%
TOTAL LESS LIKELY 35% Much less likely 29% Somewhat less likely 7%
No Impact 32% Undecided/Refused 2%
8. [embargoed for future release]
9. [embargoed for future release]
Direction/Job Approval
10. Moving on, would you say that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 46% Wrong Track 49%
DK/Refused 7%
11. [embargoed for future release]
12. [embargoed for future release]
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13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 52% Strongly approve 39% Somewhat approve 13%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 46% Strongly disapprove 41% Somewhat disapprove 6%
Undecided/Refused 2%
14. [embargoed for future release]
15. [embargoed for future release]
16. [embargoed for future release]
Images
Next, I’m going to read you some names. For each, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, just say so. IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very or somewhat? RANDOMIZE SERIES
TOTAL TOTAL Very S’what S’what Very No Never FAV UNFAV Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion Heard of 17. Donald Trump 52% 45% 40% 12% 3% 42% 2% * 18. Mike Pence 55% 41% 44% 11% 5% 36% 3% * 19. [embargoed for future release] 20. [embargoed for future release] 21. [embargoed for future release] 22. [embargoed for future release] 23. [embargoed for future release]
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24. [embargoed for future release]
25. [embargoed for future release]
Demographics
26. Wrapping up, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only. First, in which of the following ranges is your age:
18-40 20% 41-54 22% 55-64 20% 65 or older 37%
Refused 2%
27. Gender [BY OBSERVATION]:
Male 47% Female 53%
28. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?
White 85% Hispanic or Latino 1% African-American 7% Asian-American * Something else 3%
Refused 3%
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29. If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a [ROTATE] liberal, moderate, or conservative in your political beliefs? IF LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE, PROBE: Is that very [liberal/conservative] or somewhat?
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 45% Very conservative 26% Somewhat conservative 19%
TOTAL MODERATE 31%
TOTAL LIBERAL 20% Somewhat liberal 10% Very liberal 10%
DK/Refused 4%
30. In politics, do you generally consider yourself to be a (ROTATE) Republican, Independent, or Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, PROBE: Is that a strong (Republican/Democrat) or not-so-strong?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN 42% Strong Republican 30% Not-so-strong Republican 9%
TOTAL INDEPENDENT 20%
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 33% Not-so-strong Democrat 7% Strong Democrat 26%
Other 1% DK/Refused 4%
31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Some high school 2% Graduated high school 22% Some college or associate’s 25% Graduated college 27% Masters/Post-Graduate 22%
DK/Refused 2%
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32. Which of the following categories best describes your annual household income?
IF REFUSED INITIALLY: This information is for demographic purposes and is confidential. Which of these broad income categories best describes your annual household income?
Less than $25,000 9% $25,000 to less than $50,000 19% $50,000 to less than $100,000 29% $100,000 to less than $150,000 14% $150,000 or more 8%
DK/Refused 23%
33. Region [FROM SAMPLE]
North 29% Central 46% South 25%
34. Phone [FROM SAMPLE]
Landline 70% Cell Phone 30%
Thank you for your time. This call was authorized and paid for by Indy Politics.
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Methodology Statement
On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies, LLC, a research firm located out of Woodbridge, Virginia, conducted a telephone survey of 601 likely voters in Indiana. The survey was completed from October 15 - 20, 2018 using live interviewers from a call center who called of landline and cell phones. The survey used RBS (Registration-Based Sampling) methodology, using voter registration records to create a random sample of voters who have voted in at least one of the previous four general elections in Indiana, or were newly registered to vote in Indiana. The final sample was weighted for region, age, and education.
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error applies to each individual data point at the topline level. When applying margins of error to relative analysis (e.g., a ballot test), it would apply to each data point and not the margin between the two. Thus, even a difference greater than 3.9% between two data points may not be statistically significant. Sampling error is larger for subgroup analysis.
The survey was designed to minimize error through question wording and sequence; however, every question asked introduces some element of bias in the questions that follow.
Pollster Contact Information:
Stephen Spiker President/Owner, Mason Strategies, LLC (757) 618-0676 [email protected]
Sponsor Contact Information:
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz IndyPolitics.org (317) 727-1250 [email protected]