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Geopolitical Shifts in West Asia[Initial].P65 Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is an The West Asian region is undergoing a phase Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence of massive turbulence since the outbreak of Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. He the Arab Spring. This period has been holds a doctorate degree from Jawaharlal marked by popular protests, internal Nehru University, New Delhi. Since joining Geopolitical Shifts in W conflicts, civil wars, military interventions IDSA, he has been researching on foreign and involvement of external players. The policy, security and strategic issues in West regional security situation remains fragile Asia, and India's relationship with West Asia Contributors with a new terrorist entity, the Islamic State, and the wider Arab world. He is also working Gencer Özcan emerging to challenge the existing on the implications of the Arab Spring for the N. Janardhan geographical boundaries of the region. There region and India. He is the author of the Mostafa Zahrani has been an enormous increase in terrorism monograph India's Relationship with the Gulf Mohamed Fathy Abdel Hamid El Shazly and extremism, and the non-state actors have Cooperation Council: Need to Look beyond Ahmed Salem Saleh Al Wahishi gained significant influence in regional Business. He has also published articles in politics. Sectarian conflicts in the region reputed journals and contributed articles to Talmiz Ahmad have manifested in places such as Iraq, several edited volumes on West Asia. At Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar Yemen and Syria. As the region is a major oil IDSA, he is presently working on the Abdulwahab Al Qassab supplier for the Asian economies, continuing 'Sectarian Faultlines in West Asia'. Rajeev Agarwal unrest has created concern among the major P. R. Kumaraswamy Geopolitical Shifts Asian oil importers over the possibility of Waiel Awwad disruption of oil supply to them. est Asia Jon B. Alterman This book contains in-depth analyses of the Henner Fürtig in West Asia shifting geopolitical trends unfolding in West Asia. Critical issues such as geopolitics, Girijesh Pant Trends and Implications regional security, sectarianism, extremism, Toshitaka Takeuchi energy security and India's relationship with Jeongmin Seo the region have been discussed by the Shebonti Ray Dadwal E d i t o r scholars in this edited volume. In light of the Prasanta Kumar Pradhan evolving geopolitical and security situation P Prasanta Kumar Pradhan in the region, this book presents opinions and radhan analyses of scholars from different parts of the world on the evolving political, security (Ed.) and strategic dimensions of the turmoil in West Asia. Rs. 995/- ISBN 978-81-8274-877-4 www.pentagonpress.in 9 788182 748774 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS IN WEST ASIA Trends and Implications GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS IN WEST ASIA Trends and Implications Editor Prasanta Kumar Pradhan INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Geopolitical Shifts in West Asia: Trends and Implications Editor: Prasanta Kumar Pradhan First Published in 2016 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-877-4 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch Flat No.213, Athena-2, Clover Acropolis, Viman Nagar, Pune-411014 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Foreword ix Abbreviations xiii About the Contributors xvii List of Maps, Tables and Figures xxv Inaugural Address by Hon’ble Minister of State for External Affairs General Vijay Kumar Singh (Retd.) xxvii Introduction 1 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan PART I GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS IN WEST ASIA 1. The Arab Uprisings: The More Things Changed, the More They Stayed the Same 13 Gencer Özcan 2. Arab Uprising and Changing Geopolitical Trends in the Gulf 22 N. Janardhan 3. A New Paradigm in Understanding the Current Evolutions in the Middle East 34 Mostafa Zahrani 4. Geopolitics in West Asia: An Egyptian Perspective 39 Mohamed Fathy Abdel Hamid El Shazly 5. Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East: A View from Yemen 52 Ahmed Salem Saleh Al Wahishi vi Geopolitical Shifts in West Asia PART II TERRORISM, SECTARIANISM AND REGIONAL SECURITY 6. Sectarianism and Security Implications for West Asia 61 Talmiz Ahmad 7. The Dynamics of Regional Security in the Middle East: A GCC Perspective 79 Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar 8. The Present State of Affairs in Iraq: Islamic State and Prevailing Political Disorder 85 Abdulwahab Al Qassab 9. Gulf Security Architecture and the GCC: Time to Shed Past Baggage and Start Anew 103 Rajeev Agarwal PART III EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS IN WEST ASIA 10. A Love-Hate Relationship: External Interventions and the Middle East 123 P. R. Kumaraswamy 11. External Intervention in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications 140 Waiel Awwad 12. US and ‘The Other Side of the World’ 148 Jon B. Alterman 13. How to Deal with West Asia? Commonalities and Differences in the European and German Approaches 158 Henner Fürtig PART IV REGIONAL INSTABILITY AND ENERGY SECURITY 14. Changing Text of Energy Geopolitics and West Asia 175 Girijesh Pant 15. Safeguarding the SLOCs from West Asia as an Energy Security Policy: A Japanese Perspective 186 Toshitaka Takeuchi Contents vii 16. The Impact of Regional Instability on Energy Security: A Perspective from South Korea 200 Jeongmin Seo 17. West Asian Turmoil and the Future of the Regional Gas Sector: Implications for India 212 Shebonti Ray Dadwal PART V INDIA AND WEST ASIA 18. India’s Relationship with West Asia: Facing the Challenges of Arab Spring 227 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan Index 241 Foreword The West Asian region has been witness to severe turmoil for half a decade. Beginning with the December 2010 incident of self-immolation by Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, tensions continue to persist throughout the region till date, albeit in different degrees in different countries. The last five years have witnessed large-scale protests by the people against their rulers, the overthrow of some authoritarian regimes, and limited experiments with democracy. The events have also, to a large extent, redefined the regional balance of power in West Asia. Relationships among the countries of the region, in some instances, have witnessed a change. Such dramatic developments in West Asia have drawn the attention of the external powers, whose continued intervention has further aggravated the situation. In this backdrop of immense and ongoing regional geopolitical changes, the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi organised its First Annual West Asia Conference on the theme “Geopolitical Shifts in West Asia: Trends and Implications” from 10-11 September, 2014, to deliberate on the emerging challenges and trends in the region. This volume, edited by Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Associate Fellow at the Institute, brings together the views expressed at the conference by the scholars and experts from around the world. West Asia has been a sensitive and conflict prone region, especially since the early 20th century with the discovery of oil. It was also an enduring space for conflict during the Cold War. More recently, the phenomenon of the “Arab Spring” added another dimension to the existing geopolitical challenges in the region. The relationship between the two crucial regional players—Saudi Arabia and Iran—has worsened, making the situation even more complex. There have been allegations of Saudi-Iran proxy wars taking place in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The increasing Iranian activism in the region and its rising capability, along with rapprochement with the West, has alarmed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states thus inhibiting the chances of any dialogue between the two sides. Intra- GCC tensions have also surfaced in recent times. x Geopolitical Shifts in West Asia Increased intervention by external players has been another characteristic feature of recent political developments in the region. The USA has remained the most important player in the region. Also apparent are the increasing visibility of other powers such as Russia and China, that have taken positions on several important issues pertaining to West Asia. As is apparent, external intervention has its limits and has largely been unable to solve the problems facing the region; rather, it has further aggravated the situation in many instances. Another important feature has been the rise of the Islamists on the political horizon of the region. They gained popularity amid the popular protests and made electoral gains that enabled them to come to power in some countries. While this development had the potential to completely alter the existing political systems in the region, it could not last against the push back from the established system. The lack of political experience and acumen displayed by the Islamists also impacted on their
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