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Household Adaptive Capacity and Current Vulnerability to Future Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

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Household Adaptive Capacity and Current Vulnerability to Future Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua HOUSEHOLD ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND CURRENT VULNERABILITY TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN RURAL NICARAGUA TANYA R. BYRNE M.Sc., University of Lethbridge, 2014 A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of the University of Lethbridge in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree [Master of Science] Department of Geography University of Lethbridge LETHBRIDGE, ALBERTA, CANADA © Tanya R. Byrne, 2014 Signature Page HOUSEHOLD ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND CURRENT VULNERABILIY TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN RURAL NICARAGUA TANYA R. BYRNE Approved: *(Print Name) (Signature) (Rank) (Highest Date Degree) Susan McDaniel_____ __________________ _______ _______ _______ * Co-supervisor James Byrne________ __________________ _______ _______ _______ * Co-supervisor Ivan Townshend_____ __________________ _______ _______ _______ * Thesis Examination Committee Member i Acknowledgements I would like to dedicate this thesis to my grandmother, Heléne Byrne, who has an endless passion for learning and who at 97 years of age, is still the most curious person I know. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to my Supervisory Committee who have provided me with invaluable guidance on my thesis research, and who have facilitated a wonderful learning experience for which I am eternally grateful. My sincere thanks to my fiancé, Devin Cairns, who is always incredibly patient and supportive and who has been instrumental in helping me complete my thesis research. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank my family, Cindy, Paul, Justin and Kelcy Byrne, who have always encouraged and supported me to achieve, and been there to pick me up when I have failed. ii Abstract While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change could have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. Since many of the most extreme impacts of climate change over the coming years will be on agriculture and food systems, the extent to which farming households and communities have the capacity to respond or adapt to these changes has important implications for development at the national, regional and household levels. This research examines the adaptive capacity of rural Nicaraguan farm households in the face of current and future climate change, and investigates how current vulnerability to future climate change varies on a municipio by municipio basis across the country. We find that household adaptive capacity varies significantly across regions in Nicaragua, and also when households display certain demographic characteristics. We also find that municipios in Nicaragua demonstrate diversity in terms of agricultural response to projected climate change and current adaptive capacity conditions. The results of this research can be used to inform policy decision making and serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua iii Table of Contents Signature Page ................................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 2: Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Vulnerability to Climate Change .......................................................................................... 4 2.1.1. Vulnerability Assessments ....................................................................................... 6 2.1.2. Issues with Quantifying Vulnerability ..................................................................... 6 2.1.3. Measuring Vulnerability using Indicators ................................................................ 7 2.1.4. Mapping Vulnerability ............................................................................................. 8 2.2. Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1. Measuring Adaptive Capacity .................................................................................. 9 2.3. Nicaragua .............................................................................................................................. 9 2.3.1. The Nicaraguan Rural Poor.................................................................................... 10 Chapter 3: Adaptive Capacity of Rural Nicaraguan Farm Households ................................. 11 3.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2. Data & Methods .................................................................................................................. 13 3.2.1. Sample Data ........................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2. Calculating the RFHACI ........................................................................................ 15 3.2.3. Indicator Selection ................................................................................................. 19 3.2.4. Profiling Based on Demographic Variables ........................................................... 23 3.3. Results ................................................................................................................................. 24 3.3.1. Regional Analysis .................................................................................................. 24 3.3.2. Characteristics of Head of Household Analysis..................................................... 24 3.3.3. Characteristics of Household Analysis .................................................................. 27 3.4. Analysis & Discussion ........................................................................................................ 28 3.4.1. Regional Analysis .................................................................................................. 28 iv 3.4.2. Characteristics of Head of Household ................................................................... 30 3.4.3. Household Demographic Variables ....................................................................... 33 3.5. Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 37 3.6. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 38 Chapter 4: Rural Nicaragua’s Current Vulnerability to Future Climate Change: A Sub- National Assessment .................................................................................................................... 39 4.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 39 4.2. Data & Methods .................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.1. Sensitivity Under Exposure Index ......................................................................... 41 4.2.2. Municipio Adaptive Capacity Index ...................................................................... 47 4.2.3. Sample Data ........................................................................................................... 48 4.3. Vulnerability ....................................................................................................................... 49 4.4. Results ................................................................................................................................. 50 4.5. Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 52 4.5.1. MAC Index Map .................................................................................................... 57 4.5.2. SUE Index Map ...................................................................................................... 59 4.5.3. Putting the Results in Context ................................................................................ 60 4.6. Limitations, Strengths & Future Works .............................................................................. 61 4.7. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 5: Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 64 References ....................................................................................................................................
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