In Our Sixth Annual Year-End Forecast of Trends for the Near Future From
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In our sixth annual year-end forecast of trends for the near future from global JWT intelligence, technology is the overriding theme, driving many of our trends and at the center of others. The economy also continues to be a common thread. Trends don’t happen in isolation. They tend to intersect and work in tandem with each other, as you’ll see here. And many are extensions or outgrowths of trends we formerly spotted; after all, trends with real significance can’t be assigned to just one calendar year. The trends explored here, which we believe have significant weight and momentum, indicate shifts that are likely to be with us for a while. JWT’s sixth annual year-end trends forecast is the result of quantitative, qualitative and desk research conducted by JWTIntelligence throughout the year. Specifically for this report, we conducted quantitative surveys in the U.S. and the U.K. using SONAR, JWT’s proprietary online tool, surveying 1,005 adults aged 18-plus (504 Americans and 501 Britons) from Oct. 15-24; data are weighted by age and gender. And we also interviewed experts and influencers across sectors including retail, media, technology, gaming, urban planning, psychology and academia. For the Philippine analysis, we also interviewed middle class consumers (a stay-at home mom and an OFW, for example) as well as experts in retail, gaming development and game design and travel. We believe that trends, like any complex and dynamic human phenomenon, are not preordained—once they are spotted, they can be shaped. We believe that foreseeing trends allows our clients to stay ahead of their competitors, meeting emerging consumer needs and wants before anyone else does. Here are JWT’s 10 Trends for 2011. 1. All the world’s a game Increasingly, brands will apply game mechanics (leader boards, leveling, stored value, privileges, superpowers, status indicators, etc.) to non- gaming spaces in an attempt to drive certain actions or behaviors. This is more than simply brand-sponsored games—consumers will be engaged in brand communities, content or campaigns through incentives and rewards modeled on behavioral economics. “We play games all the time, right? School is a game. It’s just a very badly designed game. … But game dynamics aren’t consciously leveraged in any meaningful way. … If we can bring game dynamics to the world, the world will be more fun, more rewarding, we’ll be more connected to our friends, people will change their behavior to be better. But if this is going to work it has to be something that anyone can play and that everyone can build.” — Seth Priebatsch, founder of gaming company Scvngr, The New York Times, “Just Manic Enough: Seeking Perfect Entrepreneurs,” Sept. 18, 2010 Social media enabling social one-upmanship and competition: In broadcasting their behaviors, people have consciously or unconsciously started to engage in social one-upmanship (“I’m more witty, worldly, in- the-know, on-the-go, etc., than you”). The hyper-social Millennial generation is driving most of this, with 56 percent of our Millennial survey respondents in the U.S. and U.K. saying they often compare their activities, purchases, habits or behaviors with those in their social circle; nearly half say they often try to one-up those in their social circle. •Gaming has become ingrained in culture: And Millennials have grown up in an age of ubiquitous online, video and other digital games. In the U.S., online gaming has surpassed e-mail as the second most popular Internet activity behind social networking. One in five Americans aged 6-plus now play casual social games. Zynga is leading the explosive growth in the social gaming category, with its FarmVille attracting 54 million Facebook users and FrontierVille some 28 million users. •Instant gratification: The delayed gratification associated with traditional loyalty programs doesn’t satiate the growing expectation for instant reward and/or feedback. (Sixty-five percent of our survey respondents agreed that “with loyalty rewards programs, I feel like it takes so long to accumulate enough points to get anything worthwhile that I generally don’t bother trying.”) Gamifying life: Gamification works best when the rules of the game are aligned with the personal goals of the user. With the rise of apps culture, we’ll see more games that turn life into a game, with self-defined goals and achievements. EpicWin, an iPhone app, turns your to-do list into a fantasy quest with virtual treasure for finished tasks. Nike made the city of London into a game board for GRId, a competition that challenged individual and team runners. Foursquare’s evolving business model is rewarding users for real-world actions, beyond checking in at local businesses; a partnership with RunKeeper, for example, will create badges for users that achieve running milestones. Gamifying finance: Even “serious” categories like banking and personal finance are injecting elements of fun into their brand experience, especially for younger audiences. Mint.com uses game elements (like a point system that lets you compete with users who have similar financial goals) to help people achieve financial fitness and has attracted more than a million active users. Barclays has a Web game, 56 Sage Street, aimed at improving teenagers’ understanding of banking. Scavenger hunts: As more people use location-enabled smartphones, scavenger hunts are emerging as an ideal way for game mechanics to bridge the online and offline worlds (e.g., go to location X, perform an action, win reward). Instead of simply giving away free tickets to celebrate its 10-year anniversary, for instance, JetBlue held a scavenger hunt in New York where followers of #JB10NY were asked to bring specific items— birthday cards, etc.—to specific locations at certain times. We’re not talking about brand-sponsored games or brands integrated into games—what we’ll see may not even be games in the classic sense but tactics that rely on game mechanics to tap into primal response patterns. Broadly, “gamification” can increase brand loyalty and engagement, drive or change consumer behavior or habits, push people to exercise influence over their peers and/or get them to consider buying something, doing something or going somewhere for the first time. We’ll see more brands encouraging competition or a competitive spirit to drive desired results, or adding a sense of play or fun into traditional promotions or everyday activities. Gamification will also disrupt traditional loyalty program models, in which members accumulate points over time, usually in isolation of others. Gamification generally ties people’s performance to others’—we’ll see that performance being captured in real time, driving a sense of urgency to act and an immediate feedback loop. Local Application: Consumer View: Fun in “relaxed” spending “Mas positive ang outlook ng gobyerno, kaya mas pwedeng gumasta, pwedeng dalhin ang mga bata sa mall” Rodelyn, stay at home mom Expert View : Make it simple and social “Let them get into it quickly. Then medyo kulang ang feeling pag hindi mo ma-share ang game. Chismoso kasi tayo e, gusto natin nakikiusyoso tayo, we just like to let people know” Mary Lu, game designer Ayala offered incentives to people driving around in red cars, with receipts dated April 17 or 24, get free parking. Mench dizon Familiarity with games how we played them as children. For this 7-11 promo using the receipts. You have to do Picture Tiling. For every 50 peso purchase, you are given a receipt with a piece of a car’s picture. Objective is to complete the picture to win the car. Encourages competition but also resourceful team play within officemates. Among males, aside from games of luck they want a skill challenge. Burger Avenue diners were challenged to eat a giant sized burger in a span of 5 minutes, not just luck but skill, among males is important Some Reflections for Brands: 1.)How can you apply gaming mechanics to engage, not simply create brand sponsored games? 2)How do you currently gauge loyalty and make it more competitive? 3)How can you make it easier for people to track progress? 4)Can you incorporate gaming mechanics in your product demonstration? In this case, clues, hunts, competition for a prize was present in the development of the JWT Nokia N8 campaign “Pier Roxas” Are there everyday activities your brand could make more fun for consumers to drive desired behaviors? Application to C2d Consumer? Applicable with limits Engaging the C2d consumer using gaming mechanics can help cut across the clutter. Keep it simple and engaging. 2. The Urgency Economy Trend: As time-sensitive deals experience a renaissance among younger, hipper and more “in the know” shoppers, look for the “act now” strategy to extend beyond the Web, helping to nudge people back to their pre- recessionary, “spend-now-think-later” ways. This is an outgrowth of our Life in Real Time trend from 2010, extending the “what’s happening now?” mind-set to include “must do it now.” •Life in real time: The real-time Web has resulted in a greater emphasis on the immediate and the now, lending a greater sense of urgency to Internet- based behaviors. It has also helped fuel an expectation of instant gratification. With online shopping, we can get what we want when we want it. (And some companies, like Zappos, have made overnight shipping standard practice, while many e-tailers allow for local store pickup of purchases.) Increasingly, the mind-set is moving from “I want that” to “I want that now.” •The art of the deal: We all love to brag about the deals we’ve gotten, but during the recession, with conspicuous consumption frowned upon, this became the only type of consumption people could crow about.