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The Optimal Role for Gas in a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System

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The Optimal Role for Gas in a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system ah ©2019 Navigant Page i Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net-zero emissions energy system Prepared for: By: Wouter Terlouw, Daan Peters, Juriaan van Tilburg, Matthias Schimmel, Tom Berg, Jan Cihlar, Goher Ur Rehman Mir, Matthias Spöttle, Maarten Staats, Maud Buseman, Ainhoa Villar Lejaretta, Mark Schenkel, Irina van Hoorn, Chris Wassmer, Eva Kamensek, Tobias Fichter Reviewed by: Kees van der Leun and Prof. Dr. Kornelis Blok Navigant Netherlands B.V. Stadsplateau 15 3521 AZ Utrecht +31 30 662 3300 navigant.com Reference No.: 203997 Date: 18 March 2019 ©2019 Navigant Page ii Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system Executive summary The purpose of this study is to assess the most cost-optimal way to fully decarbonise the EU energy system by 2050 and to explore the role and value of renewable and low-carbon gas used in existing gas infrastructure. This is being done by comparing a “minimal gas” scenario with an “optimised gas” scenario. This study is an updated version of the February 2018 Gas for Climate study, with an extended scope of analysis. The current study adds an analysis of EU energy demand in the industry and transport sectors. It also includes an updated supply and cost analysis for biomethane and green hydrogen, including dedicated renewable electricity production to produce hydrogen, and an analysis on power to methane. Finally, we assessed the potential role of blue hydrogen, natural gas combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU). Both the “minimal gas” and “optimised gas” scenarios assume a net-zero emissions EU energy system by 2050. The scenarios both assume a significant increase in renewable electricity (wind, solar PV, and some hydropower). The main difference between the scenarios is the role of renewable and low carbon (or ‘decarbonised’) gas, and the role of biomass power. The “minimal gas” scenario decarbonises the EU energy system assuming a large role for direct electricity use in the buildings, industry and transport sectors, with some biomethane being used to produce high temperature industrial heat. Renewable electricity is produced from wind, solar and hydropower, combined with solid biomass power. The “optimised gas” scenario also assumes a strongly increased role of direct electricity in the buildings, industry and transport sectors. Yet it concludes that renewable and low- carbon gas will be used to provide flexible electricity production, to provide heat to buildings in times of peak demand, to produce high temperature industrial heat and feedstock, and to fuel heavy road transport and international shipping. The study main conclusions are: 1. Full decarbonisation of the energy system requires substantial quantities of renewable electricity in both study scenarios. Electricity production will more than double and renewable electricity production will increase more than ten-fold compared to today. 2. Strong growth in wind and solar PV requires flexibility in electricity production by either solid biomass or gas. Battery seasonal storage is unrealistic even at strongly reduced costs. 3. Full decarbonisation of high temperature industrial heat requires gas in both scenarios. 4. Existing gas grids ensure the reliability and flexibility of the energy system. They can be used to transport and distribute renewable methane and hydrogen. 5. It is possible to sustainably scale-up renewable gas–biomethane, power to methane and green hydrogen–at strongly reduced production costs. 6. Blue hydrogen produced from natural gas combined with CCS can be a scalable and cost- effective option to accelerate decarbonisation. Because green hydrogen is still expensive today, a scale-up of blue hydrogen increases chances to keep global warming well below 2 degrees. 7. The “optimised gas” scenario allocates 1,170 TWh renewable methane and 1,710 TWh hydrogen to the buildings, industry, transport, and power sectors. This equals 272 billion cubic metres of natural gas (energy content). Compared to the “minimal gas” scenario, the use of gas through gas infrastructure saves society €217 billion annually across the energy system by 2050 8. The “minimal gas” scenario requires 2310 TWh of (probably partly imported) solid biomass power, nine times more than the 254 TWh in “optimised gas”. 9. The future energy system can be expected to be fully renewable, with blue hydrogen being replaced by renewable green hydrogen towards 2050–2060 following a large scale-up of electricity from wind and solar PV. ©2019 Navigant Page iii Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system As shown in the graph below, cost savings per unit of energy are highest in the heating of buildings, where renewable gas is used combined with electricity in hybrid heat pumps in buildings that are connected to gas grids today. Also, the use of renewable gas in electricity production generates significant energy system savings because it avoids costly investments in solid biomass power or even costlier battery seasonal storage. Figure 1 Quantities of gas used per sector and resulting energy system cost savings in the “optimised gas” scenario versus the “minimal gas” scenario Although reduced compared to today, the EU will still require large quantities of energy in 2050. In our 2050 scenarios this is supplied without domestic sources of coal and nuclear, raising the question where this energy will be produced. Today, the EU imports more than 50% of its energy. In theory it is feasible to produce all required energy in both study scenarios domestically within the EU by 2050. However, producing renewable energy in other parts of the world can be an attractive alternative, and it is more likely that international trade in energy will continue to exist. This could include imports of solid biomass in the “minimal gas” scenario or imports of green hydrogen in the “optimised gas” scenario. The “optimised gas” scenario includes only renewable and no low carbon gas to show that it’s possible. Yet because the costs of green and blue hydrogen can be similar by 2050, there could still be a role for blue hydrogen. Blue hydrogen can grow the hydrogen demand in coming years, allowing faster decarbonisation. Towards 2050, natural gas will be phased out and blue hydrogen would increasingly be replaced by green hydrogen and renewable methane. The speed by which green hydrogen can replace blue hydrogen depends on how fast all direct electricity demand can be produced from renewables and how fast additional renewable electricity generation capacity is constructed beyond that. It furthermore depends on whether policy makers will limit the use of blue hydrogen by 2050. Any large scale-up of green hydrogen production prior to the moment when all demand for direct electricity is covered by renewable power results in indirect increases in fossil electricity generation. ©2019 Navigant Page iv Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system Further details on key study conclusions Large increase in renewable electricity Full decarbonisation of the EU energy system in the most cost-optimal way requires substantial quantities of renewable electricity in both study scenarios as shown in the figure below. Figure 2 Gross electricity generation in both scenarios compared to EU-28 power mix in 2014 Either solid biomass, large-scale battery seasonal storage or renewable or low-carbon gas is required to provide flexibility in electricity production once wind power and solar PV are scaled more than tenfold by 2050. Biomethane and power to methane Biomethane and power to methane can supply up to 1,170 TWh at strongly reduced costs, consisting of 1,010 TWh of biomethane and 160 TWh of power to methane. Navigant’s analysis shows that by 2050 all biomethane can be zero emissions renewable gas, in the sense that any remaining lifecycle emissions can be compensated by negative emissions created in agriculture on farms producing biomethane. Based on our assessment of potential biomethane cost reductions we conclude that production costs can decrease from the current €70–90/MWh to €47– 57/MWh in 2050. These costs reflect large-scale biomass to biomethane gasification close to existing gas grids, as well as more local biomethane production in digesters. An assessment of the feasibility of increasing renewable methane production by methanation of CO2 captured in biogas upgrading showed that this technology could increase the renewable methane potential although costs will remain somewhat higher than biomethane or hydrogen costs. Navigant’s assessment on the biomethane potential has not significantly changed from its 2018 analysis, now 95 bcm instead of our previous 98 bcm of natural gas equivalent. In response to questions and comments on the uncertainties of the supply of sustainable silage when implementing Biogasdoneright (winter silage cropping) throughout Europe the potential in southern Europe versus countries with a more moderate climate is now differentiated. Navigant performed a deeper analysis of the availability of woody biomass for biomethane, including short-rotation plantation wood cultivated on abandoned farmland. ©2019 Navigant Page v Gas for Climate. The optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions energy system Green hydrogen Dedicated wind and solar PV generation could produce green hydrogen as the main product. Navigant found that there is large theoretical potential of offshore wind and solar PV, going beyond the estimated 2050 EU renewable power projection. This means that the technical potential for green hydrogen production is virtually limitless. However, there are considerations such as the land use change risks associated with an increase in non-rooftop solar PV and competing sea uses to offshore wind that will limit the green hydrogen potential.
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