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Seabury Takes on Even the Toughest Airline Financial Challenges. by KAREN WALKER Seabury

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Seabury Takes on Even the Toughest Airline Financial Challenges. by KAREN WALKER Seabury AIR TRANSPORT WORLD Air Transport World Air Transport World AIR TRANSPORT WORLD Electronically reprinted from June 2015 | www.atwonline.com | A Penton Publication® TURNAROUND Air Transport World KING Seabury takes on even the toughest airline financial challenges. BY KAREN WALKER Seabury ou know that old joke about how to agreement with Air Canada; assisting Etihad Airways JOHN become a millionaire? Answer—start through a $60 billion new aircraft order; and organizing LUTH off as a billionaire and buy an airline. out-of-court restructurings for US regional Chautauqua founded Seabury There’s one man in this industry for Airlines and US low-cost carrier Frontier Airlines. Group in which the state of airline industry Luth also led liquidity capital raises for Air Canada of 1995. affairs is never a joke. And if he can $1 billion in 2009 and $1.1 billion for US Airways. Yturn the joke on its head, he will. It all adds up to an experience that has given Luth John Luth founded Seabury Group and its subsidiar- and his team a sharp eye for spotting what makes the ies in 1995 after leaving Continental Airlines, where he difference between success and failure in the airline was CFO and CIO. Since then, Seabury has secured industry. a track record of coming in and assisting aviation and Luth started Seabury as a North American-centric aerospace companies through their most difficult times company, but expanded it to the global brand it has and challenges. In all, Seabury has partnered with more become. He explained the company’s basic philosophy than 300 clients on over 1,100 cases involving consult- and approach to airlines that seek their advice and/or ing, investment banking, principal investment and restructuring or fleet planning assistance. merchant banking, and data products and software. This “Ultimately, what we seek to do is understand the year, the company expects to execute some 125 engage- position of the airline,” Luth told ATW in his Manhat- ments worldwide. tan office. “We often see that the airline’s structure tends With airlines alone, Seabury has advised on over $200 to be siloed and we try to elevate it if we can to make billion of aircraft orders, $80 billion of financings and sure that we have the C-suite element there, because as $90 billion debt restructurings. These include the re- soon as you make changes in one place—whether it’s in structuring and sale of Monarch Airlines combined with tech ops or maintenance or elsewhere—it affects another a $200 million capital raise [see sidebar]; advising Cho- place. A fleet change means there will be a labor/pilot rus Aviation/Jazz on a new 11-year capacity purchase change and so on. And often, not as much is done as “You could say that we have the unfair advantage of being in lots of different places all the time and seeing people’s mistakes.” people think they have done. So you have to build a case Luth says the best customers are the most sophisticated so you can then provide the best tools that will ensure customers. everything works. We always want to take the most “You think it would be the reverse, but when airlines comprehensive approach that we can.” are in distress, they are not organized to be turned An assessment of the situation and what needs to be around on a dime.” done typically takes around 10 weeks, at which point the However, Luth stresses, an airline that has very high- company will have a proposal. level capabilities, such as a strong network planning “Whether it’s aircraft, an alliance, a joint venture, we team, can more quickly implement the changes that always go back to taking an approach that is compre- might be identified as necessary by Seabury. “What we hensive-looking,” Luth said. But that does not mean an want to be able to do is bring in the extra firepower army of people is required. “We only need to use partic- that’s needed so that we can orchestrate the changes in ular people for particular needs. We can plug-and-play. partnership. What we are not is a substitute for manage- At the start, we might have 40 or 50 professionals on the ment. We help management to get across the lake—we engagement, but that is only for one or two weeks.” show up and we can provide the boat, if you like, but it Nor does Seabury walk into an engagement with a has to be a partnership.” pre-thought plan in mind. “Every single time, we think But Luth adds that he does attribute the underly- of it as new and our mindset is that every airline is differ- ing trend of airline profitability—especially in North ent,” Luth said. “But having said that, there are still a America—to smarter management and the use of better lot of similarities and we often come in at a time when tools. “Carriers that consistently make good decisions there is a dire need and that means high stress levels. So and adapt their structures and business models to the we try as much as possible to leverage those things that market needs produce sustained profitability,” he said. are common. For example, we know a lot about aircraft “Carefully executed strategic decisions are key to suc- performance and can apply that expertise.” cessful operation and sustained profits and top industry performers maximize leverage to procure services and Software Tools goods on exceptional terms, adopt different product/ Luth says Seabury has also developed, or acquired pricing approaches to match their local markets, employ through strategic acquisition of specialized com- the network, fleet and revenue management optimiza- panies, a set of software tools that can model the tion tools, and continually study their customers and outcomes of any number of routes, aircraft, labor competitors to right size their service offerings and and operational changes to highlight inefficiencies or product delivery costs.” revenue producers. In the case of the US, he adds, “consolidation was not “The software that we have is at the top of the game,” driven by a need to gain profitability, but rather US car- Luth said. “I could never have dreamed of such systems riers first restructured their operations and balance sheets and achieving this standard of excellence 25 years ago before pursuing mergers and then have used consolida- when I first joined this industry. These systems put into tion to solidify and grow their return on invested capital. practice far higher standards of capital discipline than Airline executives are now embracing ROIC versus their the industry has ever seen.” firm’s weighted average cost of capital as the best way to There is another element that Luth attributes to the measure sustainability of their businesses.” value that a consultancy can bring to an airline. But he adds that the role of airline CFOs role is “People don’t know what they don’t know, so we can “growing in complexity at an unbelievable rate” and that do that work for them. And you could say that we have successful CFOs “provide clarity to decision makers by the unfair advantage of being in lots of different places communicating actionable information and analyses, all the time and seeing people’s mistakes.” ensure corporate liquidity, and enforce capital discipline Though it may therefore sound counterintuitive, for their airlines.” Monarch & Air Nostrum: A double win Among some of the best examples of how Seabury works are seen in the cases of two airline turnarounds that the Group took on, UK-based Monarch Airlines and Spanish regional carrier Air Nostrum. In 2014, Monarch was on the brink of insolvency after more than 45 years of operation. Indeed, it came so close to Within that restructuring program, turing of Air Nostrum’s liabilities by work- the end, that the eleventh-hour deal that Monarch’s fleet was reduced from 42 to 34 ing closely with all stakeholders, including ultimately saved it, and which Seabury aircraft, and revised agreements with les- Bombardier and the airline’s lessors. A organized, was signed the same day that sors were made. An order was placed for restructuring program saved over ¤100 mil- Monarch’s CAA license was due to expire. 30 new Boeing 737 MAX 8s, with deliveries lion ($114 million), paving the way to secure In one of the fastest turnarounds in the from 2018 to 2020, to provide an efficient ¤26 million in new equity capital. In turn, industry, Seabury worked a deal within 12 and uniform fleet by late 2020. Monarch’s that led to the signing of a new long-term weeks that secured $125 million of per- long-haul and charter services were ended regional codeshare with Iberia Airlines and manent capital and liquidity from Greybull in April and its network was focused on put Air Nostrum back on a firm footing. Capital, anchored by a $50 million capital scheduled short-haul European leisure As part of the turnaround process, commitment. The rescue program includ- routes, with increased average frequencies, Seabury assisted the airline in undertaking ed a full strategic review of the airline and aircraft utilization, productivity and profit- a strategic assessment of its network and a restructuring program. ability. Material concessions agreed with relationships, completing fleet optimization Greybull also acquired 90% ownership employees across the Group also helped to work, negotiating a restructuring of all air- interest in Monarch, with the remain- enable the restructuring, including reduc- craft debt and lease obligations, renegotiat- ing 10% contributed to the Pension tions in pay of up to 30%, with more than ing key commercial and vendor contracts, Protection Fund.
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