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30-Year Trends in Admission Iro, M. A., Sadarangani, M., Goldacre, R., Nickless, A., Pollard, A., & Goldacre, M. J. (2017). 30-year trends in admission rates for encephalitis in children in England and effect of improved diagnostics and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination: a population-based observational study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30114-7 Peer reviewed version License (if available): CC BY-NC-ND Link to published version (if available): 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30114-7 Link to publication record in Explore Bristol Research PDF-document This is the accepted author manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Elsevier at https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30114-7 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher. University of Bristol - Explore Bristol Research General rights This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/red/research-policy/pure/user-guides/ebr-terms/ Thirty-year trends in admission rates for childhood encephalitis in England and impact of improved diagnostics and measles and mumps vaccination– a population based observational study Mildred A Iro (MBBS) 1, Manish Sadarangani (DPhil) 1,2, Raphael Goldacre (MSc)3, Alecia Nickless (MSc) 4, Prof Andrew J Pollard* (FMedSci) 1, Prof Michael J Goldacre* (FFPH) 3 1Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK 2Vaccine Evaluation Center, BC Children’s Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada 3Unit of Health-Care Epidemiology, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 4 Primary Care Clinical Trials Unit, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK Mildred A Iro, [email protected] Manish Sadarangani, [email protected] Raphael Goldacre, [email protected] Alecia Nickless, [email protected] Andrew J Pollard, [email protected] Michael Goldacre, [email protected] *Joint senior authors Address for Correspondence: Mildred Iro, Oxford Vaccine Group, CCVTM, Churchill Hospital, OX3 7LE, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 1865611400. Fax: +44 (0) 1865289695. Word count: 3871 (excluding research in context, contributor statement and data sharing). 1 Summary Background: Encephalitis is a serious neurological disorder, yet data on admission rates for all-cause childhood encephalitis in England are lacking. We aimed to estimate admission rates for childhood encephalitis in England over 33 years, to describe trends in admission rates and to observe how these have varied with the introduction of vaccines and improved diagnostics. Methods: A retrospective analysis of hospital admission statistics for encephalitis for individuals aged 0-19 years was conducted using the English national Hospital Inpatient Enquiry (HIPE, 1979 -1985) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES, 1990 -2011). Annual age-specific and age standardised admission rates in single calendar years and admission rate trends for specified aetiologies in relation to introduction of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination. Results: There were 16571 encephalitis hospital admissions (average hospital admission rate (AR): 5·97/100,000/year (95%CI 5·06-6·82)). Hospital ARs declined from 1979-1994 (annual percentage change, APC, 3·30%; 2·88%-3·66%; p<0·0001) and increased between 1995 and 2011 (APC=3·30%; 2·75%-3·85%; p<0·0001). Admissions for measles and mumps encephalitis decreased by 35- and 60-fold respectively following the introduction of the two-dose MMR vaccine. Hospital ARs for encephalitis of unknown aetiology have increased post-PCR. Interpretation: Hospital admission rates for all-cause childhood encephalitis in England are increasing. Admissions for measles and mumps encephalitis have decreased substantially. The numbers of encephalitis admissions without a specific diagnosis are increasing despite availability of PCR testing, indicating the need for strategies to improve aetiological diagnosis in children with encephalitis. Keywords: hospital episode statistics, mumps, measles, MMR, herpes simplex virus Funding: This study has no specific funding Word count: Abstract: 248 (excluding keywords) 2 Introduction Childhood encephalitis is of significant health importance with long-term morbidity in up to 50% of affected indi- viduals.1 However, little is known about the epidemiology of all-cause childhood encephalitis in England. This is because previous studies of the epidemiology of encephalitis in England have either involved a specific aetiological group e.g. viral encephalitis,2 or a predominantly adult population.3 Understanding the epidemiology in terms of aetiology and time trends is important to aid further understanding of patterns of the disease, gain useful information for future research and aid priority setting in the prevention and treatment of encephalitis. There have been important innovations that could impact on the diagnosis and prevention of encephalitis. These include introduction of the combined measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine in the 1980’s,4 use of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for virus identification, particularly herpes simplex virus (HSV) PCR since the 1990’s,5 and publication of a consensus definition for acute demyelinating encephalomyelitis (ADEM) in 2007. 6 The effect of these innovations on hospital admissions for childhood encephalitis in England is unknown. We aimed to define hospital admission rates (AR) of childhood encephalitis in England, describe long-term trends in hospital admissions over 30 years and to observe how these have varied with these innovations, using hospital admission statistics data. Methods Anonymised data on encephalitis admissions (1979-2011) for individuals <20 years in England were obtained from: (i) Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE, 1979-1985) and (ii) Hospital Episode Statistics (HES, 1990-2011). Details of these national sources are described elsewhere.7 Briefly, HIPE contained a random 10% sample of every National Health Service (NHS) hospital admission in England, whereas HES was a complete dataset (100%). For this paper, HIPE numbers are unscaled but the associated rates are scaled to the equivalent of 100%. To provide data on admis- sion trends during 1986-1989, data were also obtained from the Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS), a fully linked regional dataset from all NHS hospital admissions in the former Oxford NHS Regional Health Authority area. ORLS data were collected independently of HIPE and HES until 1998, after which the data are a subset of linked HES. All data reported are those for England, unless otherwise stated. An encephalitis admission was defined by the occurrence of an International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code for encephalitis (Table 1) in any diagnostic position in the hospital record. We analysed the data for ‘encephalitis of unknown aetiology’ by subtracting ICD codes for encephalitis admissions with a specific diagnosis (including ADEM) from ‘all-cause encephalitis’. Admission records were collected nationally between 1979 and 1998 but were not linked during this period. Admis- sion records only became linkable nationally from 1999 allowing calculation of episode- and person-based rates. For consistent comparisons across the entire study period, episode-based rates are presented throughout. The episode- based AR includes all episodes, regardless of the number of these per person, hereafter termed the “hospital AR”. The person-based (first record for each person) rate counts each person once. The latter is the best available proxy for incidence using HES, hereafter termed the "incidence rate” (IR). As a sensitivity analysis, person-based rates were calculated excluding admissions with lengths of stay (LOS) <5 days (excluding deaths), as these might have been individuals with suspected, not confirmed encephalitis. We also sought data on any deaths from encephalitis that occurred without a corresponding HES admission record for encephalitis. Ethical approval for studying the record linkage datasets was obtained from the Central and South Bristol Multi- Centre Research Ethics Committee (04/Q2006/176). HES data were provided by the NHS Information Centre and its predecessor organisations. In 2013 the NHS Information Centre was reorganised to become the Health and Social Care Information Centre, which then embargoed further provision of datasets to independent researchers. Analysis Annual hospital ARs and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. Summary age standardised admission rates and their 95% CIs were calculated from age-specific rates using the direct method of standardisation and the European standard population. 3 ARs across five different age groups (<1, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years) were compared using the one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to test for differences in ARs between two ICD periods. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated by Poisson regression, where the APC = (exp (β) - 1)×100 and β represents the model coefficient for year and an additional indicator variable was included to separate the two ICD periods 1979-1994 (ICD-9) and 1995-2011 (ICD-10). Data were analysed
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