U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL Carter Smith
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CTC Sentinel Objective
NOVEMBER 2010 . VOL 3 . ISSUE 11-12 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC Sentinel OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents AQAP’s Soft Power Strategy FEATURE ARTICLE 1 AQAP’s Soft Power Strategy in Yemen in Yemen By Barak Barfi By Barak Barfi REPORTS 5 Developing Policy Options for the AQAP Threat in Yemen By Gabriel Koehler-Derrick 9 The Role of Non-Violent Islamists in Europe By Lorenzo Vidino 12 The Evolution of Iran’s Special Groups in Iraq By Michael Knights 16 Fragmentation in the North Caucasus Insurgency By Christopher Swift 19 Assessing the Success of Leadership Targeting By Austin Long 21 Revolution Muslim: Downfall or Respite? By Aaron Y. Zelin 24 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity 28 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts l-qa`ida in the arabian AQAP has avoided many of the domestic Peninsula (AQAP) is currently battles that weakened other al-Qa`ida the most successful of the affiliates by pursuing a shrewd strategy at three al-Qa`ida affiliates home in Yemen.3 The group has sought to Aoperating in the Arab world.1 Unlike its focus its efforts on its primary enemies— sibling partners, AQAP has neither been the Yemeni and Saudi governments, as plagued by internecine conflicts nor has well as the United States—rather than it clashed with its tribal hosts. It has also distracting itself by combating minor launched two major terrorist attacks domestic adversaries that would only About the CTC Sentinel against the U.S. homeland that were only complicate its grand strategy. Some The Combating Terrorism Center is an foiled by a combination of luck and the analysts have argued that this stems independent educational and research help of foreign intelligence agencies.2 from the lessons the group learned from institution based in the Department of Social al-Qa`ida’s failed campaigns in countries Sciences at the United States Military Academy, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. -
Terrorist Rehabilitation Terrorist
Terrorism / Political Violence Gunaratna Angell “This is a story of an effort to address the very fundamental challenge in this conflict, deradicalization … both in large mass populations, in small cells, in cliques and ultimately into the individual’s own thought process.” —Maj. Gen. Douglas Stone (retired) (from the Foreword) TERRORIST REHABILITATION Because terrorists are made, not born, it is critically important to world peace that detainees and inmates in uenced by violent ideology are deradicalized and rehabilitated back into society. Exploring the challenges in this formidable endeavor, Terrorist Rehabilitation: The U.S. Experience in Iraq demonstrates through the actual experiences of military personnel, defense contractors, and Iraqi nationals that deradicalization and rehabilitation programs can succeed and have the capability to positively impact thousands of would-be terrorists globally if utilized to their full capacity. Custodial and community rehabilitation of terrorists and extremists is a new frontier in the ght against terrorism. This forward-thinking volume: • Highlights the success of a rehabilitation program curriculum in Iraq • Encourages individuals and governments to embrace rehabilitation as the next most logical step in ghting terrorism • Examines the recent history of threat groups in Iraq • Demonstrates where the U.S. went awry in its war effort, and the steps it took to correct the situation • Describes religious, vocational training, education, creative expression, and Tanweer programs introduced to the detainee population • Provides insight into future steps based on lessons learned from current rehabilitation programs It is essential that we shift the focus from solely detainment and imprisonment to addressing the ideological mindset during prolonged incarceration. It is possible to effect an ideological transformation in detainees that qualies them to be reclassied as no longer posing a security threat. -
Iranian Strategy in Syria
*SBOJBO4USBUFHZJO4ZSJB #:8JMM'VMUPO KPTFQIIPMMJEBZ 4BN8ZFS BKPJOUSFQPSUCZ"&*ŦT$SJUJDBM5ISFBUT1SPKFDUJ/45*565&'035)&456%:0'8"3 .BZ All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. ©2013 by Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project Cover Image: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and Hezbollah’s Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah appear together on a poster in Damascus, Syria. Credit: Inter Press Service News Agency Iranian strategy in syria Will Fulton, Joseph Holliday, & Sam wyer May 2013 A joint Report by AEI’s critical threats project & Institute for the Study of War ABOUT US About the Authors Will Fulton is an Analyst and the IRGC Project Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Joseph Holliday is a Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. Sam Wyer served as an Iraq Analyst at ISW from September 2012 until February 2013. The authors would like to thank Kim and Fred Kagan, Jessica Lewis, and Aaron Reese for their useful insights throughout the writing and editorial process, and Maggie Rackl for her expert work on formatting and producing this report. We would also like to thank our technology partners Praescient Analytics and Palantir Technologies for providing us with the means and support to do much of the research and analysis used in our work. About the Institute for the Study of War The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. -
Mcallister Bradley J 201105 P
REVOLUTIONARY NETWORKS? AN ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN IN TERRORIST GROUPS by Bradley J. McAllister (Under the Direction of Sherry Lowrance) ABSTRACT This dissertation is simultaneously an exercise in theory testing and theory generation. Firstly, it is an empirical test of the means-oriented netwar theory, which asserts that distributed networks represent superior organizational designs for violent activists than do classic hierarchies. Secondly, this piece uses the ends-oriented theory of revolutionary terror to generate an alternative means-oriented theory of terrorist organization, which emphasizes the need of terrorist groups to centralize their operations. By focusing on the ends of terrorism, this study is able to generate a series of metrics of organizational performance against which the competing theories of organizational design can be measured. The findings show that terrorist groups that decentralize their operations continually lose ground, not only to government counter-terror and counter-insurgent campaigns, but also to rival organizations that are better able to take advantage of their respective operational environments. However, evidence also suggests that groups facing decline due to decentralization can offset their inability to perform complex tasks by emphasizing the material benefits of radical activism. INDEX WORDS: Terrorism, Organized Crime, Counter-Terrorism, Counter-Insurgency, Networks, Netwar, Revolution, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Mahdi Army, Abu Sayyaf, Iraq, Philippines REVOLUTIONARY NETWORK0S? AN ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN IN TERRORIST GROUPS by BRADLEY J MCALLISTER B.A., Southwestern University, 1999 M.A., The University of Leeds, United Kingdom, 2003 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSPHY ATHENS, GA 2011 2011 Bradley J. -
RRTA 836 (12 September 2012)
1201934 [2012] RRTA 836 (12 September 2012) DECISION RECORD RRT CASE NUMBER: 1201934 DIAC REFERENCE(S): CLF2011/135787 COUNTRY OF REFERENCE: Iraq TRIBUNAL MEMBER: Vanessa Moss DATE: 12 September 2012 PLACE OF DECISION: Perth DECISION: The Tribunal remits the matter for reconsideration with the direction that the applicant satisfies s.36(2)(a) of the Migration Act. STATEMENT OF DECISION AND REASONS APPLICATION FOR REVIEW 1. This is an application for review of a decision made by a delegate of the Minister for Immigration to refuse to grant the applicant a Protection (Class XA) visa under s.65 of the Migration Act 1958 (the Act). 2. The applicant who claims to be a citizen of Iraq, applied to the Department of Immigration for the visa on [date deleted under s.431(2) of the Migration Act 1958 as this information may identify the applicant] August 2011. 3. The delegate refused to grant the visa [in] January 2012, and the applicant applied to the Tribunal for review of that decision. RELEVANT LAW 4. Under s.65(1) a visa may be granted only if the decision maker is satisfied that the prescribed criteria for the visa have been satisfied. The criteria for a protection visa are set out in s.36 of the Act and Part 866 of Schedule 2 to the Migration Regulations 1994 (the Regulations). An applicant for the visa must meet one of the alternative criteria in s.36(2)(a), (aa), (b), or (c). That is, the applicant is either a person in respect of whom Australia has protection obligations under the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees as amended by the 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees (together, the Refugees Convention, or the Convention), or on other ‘complementary protection’ grounds, or is a member of the same family unit as a person in respect of whom Australia has protection obligations under s.36(2) and that person holds a protection visa. -
YEMEN Outlook for April-September 2020 Risk Overview – 2 April 2020
YEMEN Outlook for April-September 2020 Risk Overview – 2 April 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Yemen Risk 1: Renewed Houthi offensive in Marib Risk 5: causes displacement east/southwards and severely reduced access to essential services Risk 4: Rapid depreciation of the Yemeni riyal sparks inflation reducing households’ ability to purchase basic goods and services Risk 3: De -facto partition results in reduced provision of basic services and reduced operating space for humanitarian actors Risk 2: Conflict escalates across the southwest causing significant loss of life, mass displacement, and severely reduced access to essential services. Questions? Feedback? Contact [email protected] ACAPS Yemen Analysis Hub: Risk Report March 2020 Risk 1: Renewed Houthi offensive in Marib causes displacement Risk 3: De-facto partition results in reduced provision of basic services east/southwards and severely reduced access to essential services and reduced operating space for humanitarian actors Given that the Houthis have established a commanding hold over much of the north, The Houthis currently see themselves in a position of strength compared to the and that there is little prospect of the GoY regaining outright control of Yemen, both Government of Yemen (GoY). Control of Marib would nearly complete the Houthis sides may choose to focus their efforts on peace negotiations. Saudi Arabia could help control over northern Yemen. An intense conflict in Marib would cause casualties and to negotiate peace and recognise the Houthis’ mandate to administer much of displace over 500,000 people into the eastern and southern corners of Marib northern Yemen. This could result in a shifting focus towards post conflict governance (immediately to Harib), potentially spilling into Bayhan and Shabwah. -
Regional Programme Gulf States the Yemen
Regional Programme Gulf States Policy Report – October 2019 The Yemen War Actors, Interests and the Prospects of Negotiations Introduction Fabian Blumberg Recently, there have been important developments in the war in Yemen; a war which has, according to the UN reports, created the worst humanitarian disaster of the 21st century. On the one hand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrew significant part of its military forces from Yemen declaring the time has arrived for a peace settlement to the conflict. On the other hand, militants of the South took control over Aden from the internationally-backed government amid a fierce armed confrontation between the forces of the two sides leading to a crack in the Arab Coalition that is fighting the Houthis since March 2015. News also has erupted as the Houthis claimed that they managed to attack Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facilities at the 19th of September. Back in March 2019, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) had organized a workshop in Cadenabbia, Italy, to discuss the prospects of peace in Yemen after the Stockholm agreement between the international recognised government and the Houthis. Entitled “Yemen’s War: Actors, Interests and the Prospects of Negotiations”, the workshop was attended by experts on Yemen from Europe, Germany, US, and Yemen who provided informed opinions about the conflict in Yemen and on the best way to advance peace among the warring parties. Building on that, KAS has asked experts to write down their analyses on the situation and their recommendations on how to bring about peace in Yemen. They also provide ideas for the contribution German foreign policy could provide. -
Forging the Warrior Spirit
FORGING THE WARRIOR SPIRIT THE JRTC & FORT POLK GUARDIAN Vol. 47, No. 38 Home of Heroes @ Fort Polk, LA Sept. 25, 2020 Neither rain, nor wind, nor COVID-19 Will keep JRTC from its mission of building readiness J R T C O P E R A T I O N S G R O U P The Joint Readiness Training Center’s primary mission is to train Army In - fantry Brigade Combat Teams to fight and win the nation’s wars. The Bas - togne Soldiers of 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air As - sault) learned that even a hurricane, tropical storm and health pandemic does not deter the dedicated Soldiers and trainer of JRTC Operations Group from providing the best training Soldiers can receive as training continues after Hurricane Laura, Tropical Storm Beta and despite the COVID-19 pandem - ic. For more photos of the Bastogne Soldiers training during JRTC Rotation 20-10 see page 8 of today’s Guardian. Weekend weather Inside the Guardian 86 87 85 Schools receive grant .. 3 Pink time ................. 9 POW/MIA events ........ 5 Justice Beat ............. 10 67 64 62 Rain chance Rain chance Rain chance 30% 30% 20% Gold Star moms ......... 7 Bayou reopens .......... 11 Saturday Sunday Monday VViieewwppooiinntt In our view Guardian staff asked the JRTC and Fort Polk community, "As a child, what did you think would be awesome about being an adult, but in reality wasn’t as awesome as you thought it would be?" Guardian Here are their responses: Editorial Staff Brig. Gen. Patrick D. Frank Joint Readiness Training Center and Fort Polk commanding general Col. -
THE MOST POWERFUL WEAPON (It’S Not a Bomb
MAY-JUNE 2017 | THETRUMPET.COM Germany and the last Holy Roman Empire Should Britain just ‘Keep calm and carry on’? A world without manhood Unraveling the KKK— with friendship 12 prophecies to watch THE MOST POWERFUL WEAPON (It’s not a bomb. It’s an idea.) COVER The world’s most powerful weapon is MAY– JUNE 2017 | VOL. 28, NO. 5 | CIRC. 263,551 not what you may think. (PIXELSQUID/TRUMPET) FEATURES 1 FROM THE EDITOR Germany and the Last Holy Roman Empire 4 The Deadly ‘Keep Calm and Carry on’ Mentality 7 How Europe Is ‘Winning’ Against the Far Right 8 The World’s Most Powerful Weapon It is over a thousand times more destructive than the biggest bomb ever detonated. 12 What Does It Mean to Be a MAN? Having discarded millennia-old definitions of manhood, society is deeply confused. 16 Unraveling the KKK—With Friendship 18 INFOGRAPHIC 12 Prophecies to Watch 20 Iran’s Strategy to Sabotage World Trade 22 Will America’s Asian Allies Pivot to China The [European] Community is living largely DEPARTMENTS “ by the heritage of the Holy Roman Empire, 26 INCREASE YOUR BIBLE IQ though the great majority of the people Where to Turn for Advice who live by it don’t know 28 WORLDWATCH by what heritage they live.” 31 SOCIETYWATCH 33 PRINCIPLES OF LIVING Rekindle Your First Love 34 DISCUSSION BOARD 35 COMMENTARY Dishonorable Conduct TROUBLING HISTORY Artist’s rendering of the Siege of Acre, one of the first 36 THE KEY OF DAVID TELEVISION LOG battles in the Third Crusade (HERITAGE IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES) Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Trumpet executive editor News and analysis Regular news updates and alerts Flurry’s weekly television program Stephen Flurry’s television program updated daily from our website to your inbox theTrumpet.com/keyofdavid theTrumpet.com/trumpet_daily theTrumpet.com theTrumpet.com/go/brief FROM THE EDITOR Germany and the Last Holy Roman Empire This church-state combine has caused more destruction than any kingdom in history. -
Politics, Governance, and Reconstruction in Yemen January 2018 Contents
POMEPS STUDIES 29 Politics, Governance, and Reconstruction in Yemen January 2018 Contents Introduction . .. 3 Collapse of the Houthi-Saleh alliance and the future of Yemen’s war . 9 April Longley Alley, International Crisis Group In Yemen, 2018 looks like it will be another grim year . 15 Peter Salisbury, Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme Popular revolution advances towards state building in Southern Yemen . 17 Susanne Dahlgren, University of Tampere/National University of Singapore Sunni Islamist dynamics in context of war: What happened to al-Islah and the Salafis? . 23 Laurent Bonnefoy, Sciences Po/CERI Impact of the Yemen war on militant jihad . 27 Elisabeth Kendall, Pembroke College, University of Oxford Endgames for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen . 31 Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy Yemen’s war as seen from the local level . 34 Marie-Christine Heinze, Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) and Hafez Albukari, Yemen Polling Center (YPC) Yemen’s education system at a tipping point: Youth between their future and present survival . 39 Mareike Transfeld, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin Graduate School of Muslim Cultures and Societies Gasping for hope: Yemeni youth struggle for their future . 43 Ala Qasem, Resonate! Yemen Supporting and failing Yemen’s transition: Critical perspectives on development agencies . 46 Ala’a Jarban, Concordia University The rise and fall and necessity of Yemen’s youth movements . 51 Silvana Toska, Davidson College A diaspora denied: Impediments to Yemeni mobilization for relief and reconstruction at home . 55 Dana M. Moss, University of Pittsburgh War and De-Development . -
Evidence of the Exodus? Will the Trump Peace Plan Bring Peace? MARCH-APRIL 2020 | VOL
march-april 2020 CORONAVIRUS IN PROPHECY Evidence of the Exodus? Will the Trump Peace Plan Bring Peace? MARCH-APRIL 2020 | VOL. 2, NO. 2 | circulation: 1,193 FROM THE EDITOR Coronavirus in Prophecy 1 Evidence of the Exodus? 4 Evidence of the 10 Plagues? 10 Uncovering the Truth 12 An Interview With Scott Stripling 16 Will the Trump Peace Plan Bring Peace to Israel? 20 The Houthis and Iran’s Red Sea Strategy 26 from the editor | Gerald Flurry Coronavirus in Prophecy The Bible is clear: These diseases will worsen. he outbreak of the coronavirus has shaken the world. The pandemic that started in Wuhan, China, T four months ago has now spread across the planet. When it first began, many nations were quite relaxed about the virus. But Israel took stringent precautions to prevent it from spreading. On January 30, when the death toll in China was just 170, Israel became the first nation to stop incoming flights from China. Israelis returning from China were immediately placed in a 14-day quarantine. As the virus spread through Asia, Israel banned entrance to foreigners who had visited infected nations. On February 26, Israel became the first nation to advise its citizens against overseas travel. One day later, when Italy’s death toll was only 17, Israel became the first nation to block all flights from Italy. All Israelis arriving from Italy were instructed to enter quarantine. On March 9, Israel became the first nation to refuse entry to any foreigner who couldn’t prove the ability to home quarantine for 14 days. -
Contemporary Jihadi Militancy in Yemen
CONTEMPORARY JIHADI MILITANCY IN YEMEN HOW IS THE THREAT EVOLVING? ELISABETH KENDALL JULY 2018 POLICY PAPER 2018-7 CONTENTS * 14 COMMUNICATIONS CHALLENGES * 15 DECENTRALIZATION AND/OR * SUMMARY FRAGMENTATION * KEY POINTS * 18 PART FOUR: ISLAMIC STATE IN YEMEN * 1 INTRODUCTION * 21 CONCLUSION: LOOKING AHEAD * 2 PART ONE: FORMATION & EVOLUTION * 27 ENDNOTES * 4 PART TWO: AQAP GOALS & GOVERNANCE * 32 ABOUT THE AUTHOR * 5 LOCAL INTEGRATION AND BRANDING * 32 ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE * 6 TRIBAL RELATIONS * 8 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT * 8 YOUTH ENGAGEMENT * 9 SIGNS OF DECLINE IN AQAP * 11 PART THREE: CURRENT AQAP CHALLENGES & PRESSURES * 11 INCREASING COUNTERTERRORISM STRIKES * 12 DWINDLING SUPPORT * 14 WEAK LEADERSHIP © The Middle East Institute The Middle East Institute 1319 18th Street NW Washington, D.C. 20036 MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/Getty Images SUMMARY KEY POINTS Regional conflict and internal chaos have allowed militant jihadi * The two core goals of AQAP are expelling infidels from Muslim lands and introducing an Islamic regime that would rule groups to rise and flourish in Yemen. This paper analyzes two by Islamic law. While these goals have remained constant, circumstances and experience have refined AQAP’s approaches of the most prominent such groups, al-Qaeda in the Arabian to engaging local populations in the pursuit of these goals. Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (ISY), by * The main challenges and pressures facing AQAP, some of which scrutinizing the factors that led to their respective ascents, and are shared by ISY, include increasingly frequent counterterrorism strikes, dwindling public support, weak leadership, poor examining the challenges and pressures that have caused their communications, and decentralization and/or fragmentation.