South Ayrshire Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2010 South Ayrshire Housing Market Area Housing Need and Demand Assessment
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South Ayrshire Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2010 South Ayrshire Housing Market Area Housing Need and Demand Assessment Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. iii Chapter 1 Introduction..............................................................................................................1 Chapter 2 Policy Context ...........................................................................................................8 Chapter 3 Housing Need and Demand Assessment Geography .................................. 13 Chapter 4 The Demographic and Economic Context ...................................................... 17 Chapter 5 South Ayrshire Housing Stock .......................................................................... 40 Chapter 6 Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups .............................. 60 Chapter 7 The Active Market ................................................................................................ 82 Chapter 8 The Future Housing Market ............................................................................ 111 Chapter 9 Estimate of Net Annual Need ........................................................................... 116 Chapter 10 Bringing Evidence Together ......................................................................... 126 Chapter 11 Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................................... 132 i List of Abbreviations AHIP Affordable Housing Investment Plan AJSP Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan APT Area Profiling Tool Name of Company who provides Paycheck CACI data CESU Chief Executive's Strategic Unit CHMA Centre for Housing Market Analysis CIH Charted Institute of Housing COSLA Convention of Scottish Local Authorities G&SC Girvan and South Carrick HMA GRO(S) General Register Office for Scotland HID Housing Investment Division HMA Housing Market Area HMO Houses in Multiple Occupation HNDA Housing Need and Demand Assessment JIT Joint Improvement Team LAs Local Authorities LCHO Low Cost Home Ownership LDP Local Development Plan LGBT Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transexual LIFT Low-cost Initiative for First Time Buyers LP Local Plan LQ Lower Quartile MIR Main Issues Report PAS Pressured Area Status RSL Registered Social Landlord SA South Ayrshire SAPG Small-Area Population Generator SG Scottish Government SHCS Scottish House Condition Survey SHIP Strategic Housing Investment Plan SHS Scottish Household Survey SOA Single Outcome Agreement SPP Scottish Planning Policy UQ Upper Quartile ii Executive Summary Approach 1. The Housing Need and Demand Assessment provides a detailed analysis of housing demand and need, identifying the key drivers in the South Ayrshire Housing Market Areas (HMAs) of Ayr HMA and Girvan and South Carrick (G&SC) HMA. In addition it provides a robust evidence base for current and future requirements in terms of market and affordable housing to inform local policies and strategies. 2. The Housing Need and Demand Assessment methodology relies on the collation and analysis of a wide range of secondary data and relevant literature alongside qualitative inputs from stakeholders in the Housing Market Area. 3. The Assessment has been conducted within the framework of SPP3: Planning for Homes and the Housing Need and Demand Assessment Guidance. In addition it has taken account of Firm Foundations, the Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan and the South Ayrshire Local Plan. Demographic and Economic Context Population 4. In 2008, South Ayrshire had a population of 111,670, in 51,133 households. Ayr accounts for almost half of the people and households in South Ayrshire 5. Between 1991 and 2001 the population of South Ayrshire contracted largely because of natural population decline. Since 2002, the population of South Ayrshire has been relatively stable. 6. In terms of age profile of the population, South Ayrshire as a whole has an older profile than the rest of Scotland. 15.9 percent of the population is over 65. The highest proportions of pensioners can be found in Prestwick (17.6 percent) and Girvan (17.1 percent). 7. A stable population accompanied by household growth has meant demand for housing has increased across South Ayrshire, and this trend looks set to continue into the foreseeable future. Significant household change in the rural areas of South Ayrshire seems to demonstrate an appetite remains for a greater supply of housing in these areas. iii 8. Two significant trends in terms of housing must be highlighted. The first is the growth in single person households. This points to the need for relatively small - two-bed properties rather than one-bed properties, but there is a need for these to be affordable on one income. Single-person accommodation would appear to be more important in the urban areas, especially Prestwick and Ayr. The tendency for over-crowding in areas like Rural South points towards significant unmet demand, and the need for small affordable houses in these areas. 9. The other trend is the aging of the population, which is a particular challenge facing much of Scotland and the UK. South Ayrshire‟s aging population points to growing demand for housing with support and/or adapted/accessible housing. Income 10. The average weekly pay for residents of South Ayrshire (£338) is below the Scottish (£360) and UK (£376) average. 11. In 2008, mean income in South Ayrshire ranged from £25,647 in Girvan to £34,551 in Troon. Employment 12. South Ayrshire has undergone significant employment restructuring in recent years, as traditional industries of manufacturing, construction, engineering, textiles, coal mining and fishing have declined, to be replaced by jobs in the service sector. 13. The proportion of economically active members of the work age population is 75.0 percent, which is in lie with the Scottish and UK averages. 14. Looking at the employment structure across South Ayrshire, just under two fifths of the population (38.8 percent) consists of senior managers and professional occupations. Just under a fifth (17.7 percent) of the working population is in elementary occupations. 15. Economic growth in South Ayrshire has lagged behind the Scottish average. For a considerable proportion of the population income is limited – and by extension what they can afford to spend on housing is also restricted. The relatively high median income across South Ayrshire sometimes disguises the fact that the income of people who live and work locally does not match the house prices found within the area. 16. It is difficult to make firm prediction about the economic prospects for South Ayrshire. The recent troubles in the world‟s economy suggest that iv market uncertainties are set to continue. However, the economy has performed well in some sectors such as aerospace and tourism. 17. Differences in income between areas in South Ayrshire means that what people can afford to buy and where varies quite significantly. Consideration must be given in relation to where affordable housing provision supply is concentrated – in areas where incomes are lowest – such as Girvan and Rural South, or where house prices are very high – such as Prestwick and Troon. 18. These drivers point to continuing demand for housing across South Ayrshire. The steady growth in number of households, the potential for a relatively strong economic performance in the Scottish Governments‟ Priority areas of aerospace, tourism, food and drink, and forest industries would continue to exert pressure on the private sector. There will also be continued pressure on the social rented sector and the lower end of the private sector from houses on lower incomes and benefits. Housing Stock 19. There are 53,133 dwellings in South Ayrshire. Tenure 20. 82.1 percent of housing stock is in private ownership – that is in owner- occupation or the private rented sector, 3 percent of stock is owned by RSLs, while the remaining 16 percent of stock is owned by South Ayrshire Council. 21. Girvan has a high proportion of social rented housing with 27.1 percent rented from social landlords. Prestwick has the lowest proportion of social housing stock with 10.8 percent, followed by Troon at 13.3 percent. 22. Ayr (78.4 percent), Maybole (75 percent) and Girvan (72.9 percent) have a lower proportion of private housing than the South Ayrshire average of 81.2 percent. 23. The proportion of private rented accommodation in Rural South (17.5 percent) is much higher than thee area average (8.8 percent). Prestwick has the lowest percentage of private rented accommodation with 6.0 percent of housing stock 24. Given the current tenure distribution, a more balanced tenure availability could be achieved by increasing the supply of affordable housing in the Prestwick, Troon and Rural North areas of Ayr HMA, and increasing supply options of a range of private housing in Girvan, while ensuring an adequate v supply of social and affordable housing options throughout the rural parts of G&SC HMA. 25. Although at present there is no precise evidence that directly links the factors of a higher likelihood of overcrowding and relative low levels of social housing, it is suggested here that the limited proportion of affordable housing in Rural South has meant that family members who would prefer to leave home to set up elsewhere have not been able to – leading to higher levels of overcrowding. As suggested above, this might point towards unmet need. 26. Higher levels of „under-crowding‟