Business Case

Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station Full Business Case November 2017 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Background 6 1.2 Purpose of Document 8 1.3 Other Documentation 8 1.4 Document Structure 9 2 Scheme History & Scheme Description 10 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Scheme History 12 2.3 Scheme Description 13 3 The Strategic Case 16 3.1 Introduction 16 3.2 Existing Arrangements 17 3.3 Behavioural Barriers 33 3.4 Scheme Objectives 34 3.5 Proposals / Option Assessment Report 38 3.6 Strategic Fit 44 3.7 Political Support 51 3.8 Stakeholders 51 3.9 Internal or External Business Drivers 54 3.10 Synergy 55 3.11 Conclusion 56 4 The Economic Case 58 4.1 Introduction 58 4.2 Methodology 58 4.3 Assumptions 65 4.4 Transport Economic Efficiency and Public Accounts 71 4.5 Safety Benefits 73 4.6 Environmental and Social Impacts 73 4.7 Distributional Impacts 79 4.8 Wider Impacts 83 4.9 Appraisal Summary Table 86 4.10 Value for Money Statement 86 4.11 Conclusion 89 5 The Financial Case 90 5.1 Introduction 90 5.2 Methodology 90 5.3 Assumptions 94 5.4 Base Costs 94 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 5.5 Quantified Risk Assessment 95 5.6 Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk 98 5.7 Preferred Funding Arrangements 98 5.8 Alternative Funding Arrangements 99 5.9 Conclusion 99 6 The Commercial Case 100 6.1 Introduction 100 6.2 Procurement Method 100 6.3 Programme Implications and Risk 108 6.4 Conclusion 110 7 The Management Case 111 7.1 Introduction 111 7.2 Governance 111 7.3 Assurance 112 7.4 Delivery Programme 113 7.5 Risk Management 114 7.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management 121 7.7 Monitoring and Evaluation 125 7.8 Conclusion 128 8 Summary and Conclusions 130 8.1 Summary and Conclusions 130 Figures Figure 1.1 Walking Distance between Tram and Rail at Blackpool North Station 7 Figure 2.1 Historical Tram Patronage up to end of July 2016 11 Figure 2.2 Location of the Scheme 14 Figure 3.1: Disconnect between Tram System and Rail at Blackpool North Station 16 Figure 3.2: Blackpool and the Fylde Coast 17 Figure 3.3: Buses close to Blackpool North Station 19 Figure 3.4: Origins of People Boarding at the Station who Walked or came by Tram 23 Figure 3.5: Destinations of People on Foot or By Tram Alighting at Station 24 Figure 3.6: Inbound Travel Purposes for People Alighting at Blackpool North Station 26 Figure 3.7: Major Employers in Blackpool 27 Figure 3.8: Outbound Travel Purposes from Blackpool North Station 29 Figure 3.9: Destination Stations for Commuter and Business Rail Travellers from Blackpool North Station 30 Figure 3.10: Spatial Plan of Blackpool 33 Figure 3.11 Preferred Option for Tram Extension to Blackpool North Rail Station 39 Figure 4.1 Estimated yield by fare stage (distance) and mode 60 Figure 4.2: Assessed Impacts 65 Figure 4.3: Blackpool North Extension Operating Cost Increment 69 Figure 4.4: Blackpool North Extension Lower Cost Alternative Operating Cost Increment 70 Figure 4.5: Infrastructure Renewal Spend Profile 70 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 Figure 4.6: Benefits by time period 71 Figure 5.1: QRA Graphical Risk Output (nominal prices) 97 Figure 7.1: Project Team Organogram 112 Figure 7.2: Logic Map 127 Tables Table 2.1: Average Operating Costs for Blackpool North Extension 15 Table 2.2: Proposed Project Timescales 15 Table 3.1: Rail Routes and Frequencies from Blackpool North 18 Table 3.2: Season Service Split 19 Table 3.3: Top Five Employment Sectors in Blackpool 21 Table 3.4: Place of residence of workers working within Blackpool 25 Table 3.5: Mode of Travel to Blackpool for Employment 26 Table 3.6: Location of work of workers resident in Blackpool 28 Table 3.7: Mode of Travel from Blackpool for Employment 28 Table 3.8: Facilities Available in Urban Centres in the North West of England 29 Table 3.9 Alignment of Objectives to Key Policies 36 Table 3.10: Comparison of Options to Objectives 43 Table 3.11: Alignment of Scheme to Local, Regional and National Policies 50 Table 4.1: Costs 62 Table 4.2:Journey purpose splits for non-concessionary pass holders 66 Table 4.3: Discount Rates 67 Table 4.4: MEC Growth Parameters 67 Table 4.5: Wider Impacts effects on types of movements 85 Table 4.6: Central Case and LCA 87 Table 4.7: Sensitivity Tests 88 Table 4.8: DfT Consultation VoTs 91 Table 5.1: Capital Cost Items 92 Table 5.2: Maintenance Cost Items 95 Table 5.3: Base Costs 96 Table 5.4: Quantified Risk Assessment 96 Table 5.5: CA QRA Confidence Intervals (Q1, 2012 prices) 97 Table 5.6: Scheme Costs including Risk 98 Table 5.7: Spend Profile 98 Table 6.1: Scheme Development Timescales 109 Table 7.1: Blackpool Tram Project Board 112 Table 7.2: Identified Stakeholder Groups 122 Table 7.3: Consultation to Date 123 Appendices Appendix A Scheme Drawings Appendix B QRA Report Appendix C Transport Economic Efficiency Appendix D Distributional Impacts Appendix E Environmental Appraisal Appendix F Appraisal Summary Table Appendix G Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) Appendix H Scheme Cost Estimates Appendix I Letters of Support Appendix J Scheme Delivery Programme Appendix K TUBA Input Files Appendix L Blackpool Council S.151 Officer Letter Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 Document Purpose This Full Business Case: • Is used continually to align the progress of the project towards achieving the LEP’s objectives; • Confirms the strategic fit and the case for change; • Sets out a detailed assessment of the options to find the preferred solution; • Refines the investment / intervention proposal; • Provides details of the project's overall balance of benefits and costs against objectives; and • Provides details of the proposed delivery mechanism. Proportionate Approach - as per Department for Transport (DfT) guidance, the amount of time invested in developing a business case should be proportional to the scale of the scheme. For example, a £100m scheme would require significantly more detail than a £10m scheme. Transport for Lancashire’s Business Case Development Process Chart provides further details. However, please seek confirmation from the LEP if you are uncertain as to the level of detail required for your scheme’s Business Case. Contact Details: Kathryn Molloy Head of LEP Coordination & Development Tel: 01772 538790 Email: [email protected] Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 Executive Summary Overview This document is the Full Business Case (FBC) for the Blackpool North Station Tramway Extension, a scheme to connect Blackpool North Station to the existing tramway at North Pier (see figure below). The scheme is promoted by Blackpool Council and Blackpool Transport Services (BTS). Blackpool North Extension scheme in the context of the wider area The FBC has been developed to support the application for Full Approval for funding from the Lancashire LEP, following the LEP’s FBC template. Conditional Approval was granted by the LEP in April 2016. This FBC has been developed in line with the structure set out in the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Transport Business Case guidance to establish whether the specified scheme is: • Supported by a robust case for change that fits with wider policy objectives (the Strategic Case); • Demonstrated to be Value for Money (the Economic Case); • Financially affordable (the Financial Case – accounting analysis) • Commercially viable (the Commercial Case – procurement issues); and • Achievable (the Management Case – deliverability assessment). Six objectives were developed from a review of local policy. It is these objectives against which a qualitative and quantitative assessment of various options for intervention has been made: 1. Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final 03112017 1 2. Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. 3. Reduce transport’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region. 4. Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. 5. Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. 6. Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance The Preferred Option: • Will deliver passenger and economy benefits by improving accessibility and connectivity both within Blackpool, and to the wider sub-region for commuters and for visitors accessing the resort. • Will facilitate urban realm enhancements in the town centre as well as improving access for employers in Blackpool to a larger labour pool. Improves the connectivity between the economically important seafront and the redeveloping town centre • Will make a modest contribution to wider carbon reduction and mode shift because opportunities to use public transport are improved for all • Will make a modest contribution to a safe and healthy built environment because opportunities to use public transport and the public realm are improved for all • Will contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access to jobs and services within Blackpool and the wider sub-region.

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