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Brazil's Presidential Elections Brazil’s Presidential Elections Expectations for Foreign Policy AUTHORS Carl Meacham Hussein Kalout 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW | Washington, DC 20036 t. 202.887.0200 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org A Report of the CSIS Americas Program OCTOBER 2014 Blank Brazil’s Presidential Elections Expectations for Foreign Policy Authors Carl Meacham Hussein Kalout A Report of the CSIS Americas Program October 2014 About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in April 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2014 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Contents Preface IV Brazil’s Presidential Elections: Expectations for Foreign Policy 1 Introduction 1 Zooming Out: An Overview of Dilma’s, Aécio’s, and Marina’s Foreign Policy Proposals 1 South America, Latin America, and Regional Integration 3 Bilateral Relations with the United States 5 The Interface with the European Union 7 The Middle Eastern Dimension in Brazil’s Agenda 9 Foreign Policy toward Africa 11 The BRICS and Asia 12 The Multilateral Organizations and Global Governance 14 Conclusion: Defining Expectations 14 About the Authors 18 | III Preface The past year has been a controversial, productive, and—perhaps above all else—highly visible one for Brazil. Last summer saw massive waves of protests, as Brazilians took to the streets to demand that the government provide more robust and generous social services. Just as those protests lost their fervor, the National Security Agency (NSA) revelations hit the news (including reports about NSA surveillance of Brazilian authorities and the company Petrobras), raising doubts in Brazil over the country’s relationship with the United States. In the aftermath of those revelations, President Dilma Rousseff postponed her long-planned state visit to the White House and, just a few months later, decided to award a major military contract to Swedish manufacturer Saab over both the U.S. aerospace company Boeing and the French company Dassault. Then came the World Cup. Despite the prevailing pessimism over the country’s ability to handle the logistical behemoth the World Cup represented, Brazil pulled of an exceptional event. The stadiums were beautiful, the games ran smoothly, visitors flocked to Brazil from every corner of the world, and the country welcomed them with open arms. But Brazil’s own crushing defeat to Germany in the semifinal match soured an otherwise overwhelmingly successful event for Brazilians, whose hopes for a triumphant final match and closing ceremony were dashed in the national team’s loss. As election season began, this effervescent trend only continued. As Dilma Rousseff (Workers’ Party, PT) and Aécio Neves (Social Democratic Party, PSDB) appeared poised to face off in a second round, Socialist Party (PSB) candidate Eduardo Campos tragically died in a plane crash. In the weeks that followed, his running mate, Marina Silva, assumed his nomination, changing the electoral game. With her support surging forward, Marina seemed—very suddenly—positioned to overtake even Dilma and pull off a second-round victory, as many Brazilians increasingly viewed the relative outsider as the apparent solution to their dissatisfaction and disillusionment. Though the polls appeared to stabilize, the most recent data suggests that support for Dilma is on the rise. Still, this will likely be among the most contested elections in Brazil’s recent history. Uncertainty over what will happen on October 5—and in the likely second round later this month—is rampant. Both in Brazil and all around the world, people are waiting and watching, eager to see what is in store in these elections. Notwithstanding the rhetorical polarization during the electoral campaign, the respective foreign policies of the three candidates should not be seen as a paradigmatic shift from Brazilian diplomatic tradition and historical foreign policy tenets. As a rising power in the realm of global politics and economics, Brazil is capable of exercising an assertive and independent foreign policy on diverse fronts. There is today a unified Brazilian perspective on key foreign policy issues that will remain priorities for Brazil irrespective of the individual or political party in power. These include Brazil’s efforts to obtain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, the defense of the rule of international law, and the enhancement and support of the multilateral system. It is, however, realistic to acknowledge possible changes in the narrative and in the emphasis of some strategic relations for each of Brazil’s presidential IV | CARL MEACHAM AND HUSSEIN KALOUT candidates, particularly with regard to bilateral relations with Washington, Beijing, Moscow, South American countries, and at the United Nations. Amidst all this curiosity and uncertainty, there remain countless unanswered questions as to what this election will mean for Brazil—both domestically and in a broader global context. And many of these questions come from a lack of understanding of Brazil’s priorities and interests. What will the next administration do to revitalize the Mercosur trade bloc (the “Common Market of the South”)? How will the administration handle its trade relations abroad—and what blocs and countries it will prioritize in that strategy, particularly given Brazil’s ties to Argentina and the rest of Mercosur? What can we expect of the next government in its relations with the United States, in the context of the past year’s tensions? Given its role in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) emerging economies, how will Brazil reconcile its competing priorities—human rights and nonintervention? What is the future of Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs? In short, what can we expect from Brazil on the international stage? More than anything else, this report seeks to provide clarity, answering the pressing questions about Brazilian foreign policy under the next government and demonstrating where the country’s interests overlap with the United States and its other primary partners in every part of the world—whoever wins in October. Carl Meacham Director, CSIS Americas Program BRAZIL’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS | V Blank Brazil’s Presidential Elections Expectations for Foreign Policy Carl Meacham and Hussein Kalout Introduction The presidential election of 2014 is, undoubtedly, one of the most competitive in the last two decades. Among the 11 official candidates vying for the presidency, the following candidates are the principal competitors for the office: the current president of Brazil from the Workers’ Party (PT), Dilma Rousseff; the former governor of the State of Minas Gerais and currently senator from the Social Democratic Party (PSDB), Aécio Neves; and former senator and environment minister during the Lula da Silva administration, Marina Silva, affiliated with the Socialist Party (PSB). The purpose of this policy analysis is to outline the likely foreign policy profiles and core diplomatic priorities of these candidates. The objective is to measure their focus in geographical regions and major players such as Latin America, the United States, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Additionally, the analysis will outline the foreign policy views of each candidate with regard to multilateral forums like the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization (WTO), Common Market of the South (Mercosur–Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela), and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Zooming Out: An Overview of Dilma’s, Aécio’s, and Marina’s Foreign Policy Proposals Before diving into the specifics of what to expect from each candidate on a region-by- region or issue-by-issue basis, it is useful first to turn to what each has articulated in the way of a foreign policy platform. Based on their historical positions, their campaign platforms, and their statements thus far, the following is what we might expect from each candidate’s foreign policy. The Workers’ Party foreign policy under the Dilma Rouseff administration seeks to present Brazil as the standard bearer for the developing world. The dynamism during Lula’s government (2003–2010) presented Brazil as a country with aspiration to be the leader of the Global South in juxtaposition with the developed nations of the Global North. Dilma’s administration believes that being a steadfast leader among the developing world will be a plausible path for Brazil to slightly rebalance the international order and to push forward the idea of reform within some multilateral organizations such as the UN Security Council, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank, among others. | 1 Based on this logic, if Dilma is reelected, her priorities will likely remain concentrated in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
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