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Candidate Campaign Promises BRAZILIAN 21 August 2010 Industry CANDIDATE T he m a i n opp o sit ion CAMPAIGN candidate, Jose Serra, seems likely to carry on the agenda of former President Fernando PROMISES Henrique Cardoso. Iglesias Thais Thimoteo, Rio de Janeiro says that was important in the mid-1990s but could be Businesspeople are wonder- considered out of fashion ing what the presidential in today’s post-crisis world. candidates — Dilma Rousseff He also thinks that the PV (Labor Party [PT]), José Serra candidate, Marina Silva, (Brazilian Social Democratic wants to mobilize the Party [PSDB]), and Marina population for the difficult Silva (Green Party [PV]) — balance between economic think about the future of growth and environmental Marina Silva (PV) industry, and especially what preservation. “This may seem their policies are. Tax policy relevant to some Brazilians, is once again considered a but it is not a priority for priority for the next gov- most; the issue is distant from ernment. For José Augusto the immediate interests of the Coelho, executive director majority of the electorate,” of the National Confedera- he says. tion of Industries (CNI), to A meeting between in- achieve tax reform, the next dustry representatives and president “needs to be as presidential candidates the energetic as US President CNI sponsored in May José Serra (PSDB) Obama was to pass health allowed the three candi- reform.” dates to give businesspeople So far the major candidates a few hints of their industrial have presented only generic policy. CNI tried to persuade guidelines. Wagner Iglecias, the candidates to commit to professor of sociology at the industrial sector, arguing the University of São Paulo, that the country could double points out that there has income per capita every 15 not been any innovative years if the barriers to indus- proposal: “Rousseff, as the try were removed. Robson candidate of the current Braga, president of CNI, Dilma Rousseff (PT) administration, promises to says there is no silver bullet follow the same model as solution: “There is need for President [Lula], focused on strengthening some Brazilian sustained efforts to modern- growth of the economy and companies to operate in the ize the country’s institutional the domestic market and world market.” framework.” 22 BRAZILIAN Industry August 2010 stimuLus The presidential candidates her, the pre-salt oil field “is The presidential candidates also agree with business the passport to the country’s agree with businesspeople about the high tax burden. future.” Comparing the PAC about stimulating production Rousseff says the tax situation to a “collage of public works,” for the domestic market and is “chaotic.” Serra agrees, Silva says that her plan will at the same time promoting commenting that “we have be focused on infrastructure, exports — through tax the highest tax burden in with priority given to major exemptions, among other the world.” Together taxes projects like the World Cup in measures. According to Serra, and social contributions 2012 and the Olympic Games it is also necessary to address amount to about 35% of gross in 2016. macroeconomic factors, such domestic product (GDP). Silva The presidential candi- as the overvaluation of the is more cautious. For her, dates were unanimous about real against the dollar, that tax reform is possible, but improving public manage- encourage imports, taking expectations must be realistic. ment. Silva wants to limit away jobs from Brazilians. “If it was easy to do, it would government spending to 50% “The Chinese enter the have already been done,” she of GDP growth in coming ma rket , crowd i ng out domest ic concludes. years. She also warns about production. Jobs are lost None of the candidates the need to increase domes- because of macroeconomic explained how they intend to tic savings. For Serra, the policy, which encourages the overcome resistance from some former governor of São Paulo, entry of imported goods and political and business sectors, spending “less on public ad- reduces the competitiveness of because while reducing the ministration and more on domestic goods,” he says. burden for some, tax reform the people” is essential to Brazil needs to ensure di- would increase it for others. improving macroeconomic versification and productivity, indicators. He says that at recovering ground lost in InfrAstruCturE the federal level there are far world trade in manufactured Construction of new ports, too many people hired for goods and also continuing airports, highways, and commission positions. Ef- to export commodities (iron railways is essential to ficiency will rise by lowering ore, petroleum, agricultural move Brazilian production the public wage bill. Rousseff products), Serra says. Rous- efficiently, ensuring its would prioritize the use of seff promises government competitiveness. Serra wants information technology in support for modernization of to improve infrastructure government activity. a diversified industrial sector with support from private The three presidential capable of adding value to companies. “It’s the lack of candidates all consider current national production. infrastructure that creates interest rates and exchange bottlenecks for future rates to be incompatible with The three presidential growth,” he notes. Besides sustained economic growth. candidates all consider continuing the Growth But, as with tax reform, none Acceleration Program (PAC), of them has so far explained current interest rates Rousseff, the government’s how to lower the central bank and exchange rates to candidate, points out the benchmark interest rate and be incompatible with importance of stimulating reduce the overvaluation of sustained economic whole chains of production, the national currency against especially for oil and gas. For the dollar. growth. .
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