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Newsletter ELEICOES2014 English 01.Indd Number 01 | Friday, August 15th 2014 Overview ast Wednesday (August 13th), the death of the former governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos (PSB party), established a new moment in Brazil´s presidential race. In parallel with the national sense of Lmourning, a natural anticipation about his replacement was present in the fist hours after the tragedy. The first concrete effect brought by this new scenario is that all opinion polls conducted so far have been invalidated, since the substitute for Campos as candidate in his coalition is still undefined. The polls insti- tute Datafolha is now creating a new poll in order to assess how the will of electorate changed in the last days. There a growing signals in PSB that Marina Silva, candidate to vice-president, may replace him. Repre- sented by over 20 million votes in the last 2010 presidential election, she has considerable electoral clout. Nonetheless, Twitter post by Marina Silva made at 1:54 PM yesterday possibly reveals her disposition to becoming candidate for president. The post in question hints at a Twitter message by Eduardo Campos during his interview with Jornal Nacional (the leading TV news program in Brazil) on August 12nd, saying: “With Marina on my side, I want to represent the dream and the desire for a better Brazil. It takes courage to change.” Manifestations of members of Eduardo Campos’ family ex- pressing support for Marina Sil- va’s candidature yesterday put the PSB in dire straits. The Bra- zilian newspapers assessed that PSB would “disappear” in the campaign if Marina Silva enters the race for president. Besides that, her stance for environ- mental issues and her criticism to agribusiness could be problems for the coalition. Senator Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB-SP) said yesterday that, by the logic of politics, Marina Silva should race for president. But it would be necessary that she did not position herself against the agribusiness. “No one can win the election without the agribusiness, nor anyone manages Brazil without the agribusiness,” he said. On the other hand, PSB’s direction can choose someone from the party to head the ticket to the Presidency. Ac- cording to an editorial text, published today in the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, the party could put Eduardo Campos’ mother and minister of the Federal Court of Audit (TCU), Ana Arraes, as candidate for president. A political debate interrupted he accident that killed Eduardo Campos occurred in the last week before the start of free elec- toral propaganda on radio and television - a crucial moment in which the Brazilian electorate Tgets to know the candidates band their proposals better. In preparation, a special series inter- viewing the top candidates began just a few days ago. The most influential of these was made by Jornal Nacional from Globo TV network, which talked to the presidential candidates Aécio Neves (PSDB), on Monday (11st) and Eduardo Campos, in the next day. Both gave interviews in Jornal das Dez, a news program from Globonews a few hours after their participation in Jornal Nacional. President Dilma Rousseff was scheduled to attend on Wednesday - but the death of Campos led to the cancellation of these interviews, as well the participation of an- other candidate, Pastor Everaldo (PSC party), on Thursday. Next steps ince Wednesday the 13th, every hour that passes increases the pressure for the coalition formerly led by Campos to choose his replacement; the group only has ten days, according to electoral law, Sto choose a new candidate to run for president. In parallel, the other political parties assess the level of impact of a possible selection of Marina Silva as candidate in the political scenario. Both Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves may be forced to realign their strategies with an eye on possible gains or losses that this change represents to their campaigns in the presidential race. Political analysts believe that if Marina Silva runs for Presidency, this will be the most hotly contested presidential election since 1989. Marina Silva’s ability to attend the sympathy of the disillusioned voters, who are do aligned with the can- didates from PT and PSDB parties, will also be put to the test. If she runs for president, she will obviously be questioned about her endorsement (or lack of) for Campos’ previous commitments and how she will integrate these promises with her concerns for sustainability – her traditional political platform. Yesterday the former candidate for vice-president on Marina Silva’s ticket in the 2010 elections, Guilherme Leal, as- sessed that “the challenge will be to promote the realignment of political forces that were giving support to the candidacy.” In this scenario, PSDB lost no time in trying to attract the voters for Eduardo Campos to Aécio Neves. The party’s Twitter brought yesterday afternoon a link to the analysis “The Politics of Good Mourning”, made by Institute Teotônio Vilela – a PSDB think tank. According to the text, Campos’ political platform was in tune to the people’s desire for change, and the presidential candidate for PSDB would share that disposition, as well. “Just as Aécio, Campos embodied the desire for change expressed by almost 70% of Brazilians in the latest opinion polls,” says the text. Elections’ calendar Date on which applications for candidates registration for president, vice-presi- st dent, governor, vice-governor, senator, federal and state representatives should be 21 judged by electoral courts. It is also the last day for voters who are absent from their August voting place to apply for the voting in transit option to the presidential election. rd Deadline for the coalition Unidos pelo Brasil to choose a substitute for the dispute 23 of the Presidency, replacing Eduardo Campos. August Last day for the regional committees of each political party to indicate members th of the Special Committee on Transportation and Supply for the first and second 26 rounds of the elections. August Who votes According to data from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court in May 2014, Brazil now has 142.78 million vo- ters. The three largest constituencies in the country are the states of São Paulo (32.01 million), Minas Gerais (15.25 million), Rio de Janeiro (12.145 million) and Bahia (10.17 million) - which makes them target regions especially important for all disputing candidates. Mostly female (52%) and with a majority with only a high school education level (43%), almost half of the Brazilian electorate receive up to two minimum wages (44%) and a majority reside in the Southeast region states (43%). Elections in 2010 Last presidential race had three major candidates in the first round: Dilma Rousseff (PT party), former min- ister of president Lula; José Serra, the former São Paulo governor (PSDB party); and Marina Silva, former senator (then in PV party). Despite having obtained significant votes in the four largest constituencies in the country (São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia), PV’s candidate couldn’t compete in the election’s second round - which again brought to the polls a polarization between the PT and PSDB parties (which occurred in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 elections). With 55.69 million votes, the government’s candidate, Dilma Rousseff, won the presidential elections with significant support in the states of Northeastern region, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. Her opponent José Serra, meanwhile, won the elections in São Paulo and in the three southern states – Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. ELECTIONS IN 2010 Dilma Roussef José Serra Marina Silva Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes State 1st round 2nd round 1st round 2nd round 1st round 2nd round Acre 82.733 96.969 180.252 222.766 81.102 N.A. Alagoas 709.844 737.236 508.232 637.368 160.380 N.A. Amazonas 991.128 1.141.607 129.190 275.333 392.170 N.A. Amapá 161.443 198.644 72.774 118.360 101.243 N.A. Bahia 4.188.099 4.737.079 1.403.153 1.948.584 1.052.674 N.A. Ceará 2.783.451 3.288.570 686.891 962.729 686.770 N.A. Federal District 611.362 708.674 462.441 633.299 354.070 N.A. Espírito Santo 717.417 924.046 682.590 955.423 505.734 N.A. Goiás 1.301.985 1.446.178 1.217.203 1.490.368 529.694 N.A. Maranhão 2.079.650 2.294.146 444.145 606.449 400.048 N.A. Minas Gerais 5.067.399 6.220.125 3.317.872 4.422.294 2.291.502 N.A. Mato Grosso do Sul 518.877 555.283 551.296 682.305 219.812 N.A. Mato Grosso 659.771 729.747 678.614 762.905 184.339 N.A. Pará 1.699.799 1.791.443 1.336.887 1.576.154 474.841 N.A. Paraíba 1.031.185 1.229.391 551.053 767.919 341.916 N.A. Pernambuco 2.748.751 3.457.953 773.374 1.113.235 903.655 N.A. Piauí 1.088.205 1.112.380 339.445 477.092 185.107 N.A. Paraná 2.311.239 2.593.086 2.607.664 3.226.216 944.402 N.A. Rio de Janeiro 3.739.632 4.934.077 1.925.166 3.223.891 2.693.130 N.A. Rio Grande do Norte 846.416 979.772 460.107 665.726 313.360 N.A. Rondônia 321.712 347.138 358.435 385.735 100.317 N.A. Roraima 63.927 71.280 113.601 141.896 41.784 N.A.
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