30th April 2020 Irish Media Landscape Inc Covid-19 Implications My AIM Today Overview of the current media landscape, with a deep dive into the opportunities for food and drink brands 1 MEDIA EXPENDITURE FORECASTS
2 THE GROWTH OF VIDEO
3 THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL MEDIA
4 AUDIO & OOH IN A DIGITAL ERA
5 THE VALUE OF A FREE AND INDEPENDENT PRESS Media Expenditure Forecasts Core Outlook 2007 - 2022
€1.2b €1..1b
€78m €9m
€155m €95m €8m €140m €113m 374m €646m € €451m €489m €606m €110m €282m €526m €566m €7m €123m €149m €229m €130m 179m €83m €140m € €7m 7m 311m € € €70m 7m €7m €8m € €68m €7m €7m 123m 68m €77m 81m € € €66m €74m € €8m 7m 110m € €237m € €80m €8m €141m €83m 8m €103m 138m € €8m €8m €132m 135m € €130m €85m € €88m 90m €123m € €93m €228m €118m €225m €110m €103m €99m 97m €213m €220m € €210m €218m €229m €237m 219m €466m € €221m €393m €211m €206m €210m €216m €275m 245m € €216m 206m € €177m 171m €165m € €157m 134m € €120m 99m € €85m €75m €67m 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Print TV Radio Outdoor Cinema Online
SOURCE – Core Outlook 2020 (€m’s) 2020 predictions
7.50%
3.22% 1.45% 0.00%
-2.47%
-6.38%
-12.33%
TV Press Radio OOH Online Cinema Total
SOURCE – Core Outlook 2020 (€m’s) Our latest prediction
-30% 2020 prediction since the Covid Crisis
SOURCE – Core Outlook 2020 (€m’s) Covid-19 - Initial trends
TV Significant amount of deferral spends. May is approx. 50% down yoy
Press Initially saw increased sales and online presence. Trust key. Also impacted by deferrals.
Radio Reactiveness a plus for clients. Will see a decline.
OOH Short-term will be significantly impacted. Supply/demand will be an issue in Q4
Cinema Cinemas are currently closed
SOURCE – Core Outlook 2020 (€m’s) Digital detail
+6% +21% +17% -1% Search Facebook inc Video Display inc Instagram partnerships
SOURCE – Core Outlook 2020 (€m’s)) Covid-19 - Initial trends
Short-term certain categories aren’t live – Search travel, some retail, services, entertainment etc. Facebook Similar trend as Search but decline could be bigger on growth predictions
Video In line with TV trends
Display inc Some partnerships paused meaning spends Partnerships could decline. Events a big problem What this means for advertisers?
Supply/Demand could Extra delivery and added become a big problem on Plan for an aggressive ad value across all media market in H2 channels ‘popular’ media channels later in the year The growth of video TV Covid-19 Significant increase in consumption since 12th
Mar Minutes viewed per day 200 Wk 1 2019 2020 180 +27% 160 increase in Adult15+ 140
viewing year-on-year. 120
100
Wk 4 80
60
+12% 40 increase in Adult15+ viewing year-on-year. 20
0 Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Week9 Week10 Week11 Week12 Week13 Week14 Week15
Source: Nielsen (All Adult15+ Viewing, Total TV, Viewing is Live Only and therefore is comparable YoY) RTE Nine O’Clock News performing very well 1400 Taoiseac Taoiseac h h Broadcas Broadca 200% 1200 t #1 st #2 increase in viewership since the start of the 1000 General year Election 800 2020
600 200% 1.4m increase in viewership since the start of the year 400 Taoiseach broadcast – highest rating event 200 of the last 10 years 0 02-Apr-20 04-Apr-20 06-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 01-Jan-20 03-Jan-20 05-Jan-20 07-Jan-20 09-Jan-20 11-Jan-20 13-Jan-20 15-Jan-20 17-Jan-20 19-Jan-20 21-Jan-20 23-Jan-20 25-Jan-20 27-Jan-20 29-Jan-20 31-Jan-20 02-Feb-20 04-Feb-20 06-Feb-20 08-Feb-20 10-Feb-20 12-Feb-20 14-Feb-20 16-Feb-20 18-Feb-20 20-Feb-20 22-Feb-20 24-Feb-20 26-Feb-20 28-Feb-20 01-Mar-20 03-Mar-20 05-Mar-20 07-Mar-20 09-Mar-20 11-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 17-Mar-20 19-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 23-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 31-Mar-20
Source: TechEdge - adult live programme viewership (000’s)
Source: Nielsen (All Adult15+ Viewing, Total TV, Viewing is Live Only and therefore is comparable YoY) Easter weekend saw a surge in viewing
Minutes viewed per day – Easter weekend year-on-year
2019 2020 Diff
Good Friday 160.2 204.8 +27.8% 200% Saturday 148.8 181.1 +21.7% increase in viewership since the start of the year
Easter Sunday 174.4 236.0 +35.3%
Easter Monday 167.8 198.0 +18.0%
Source: Nielsen (All Adult15+ Viewing, Total TV, Viewing is Live Only and therefore is comparable YoY) Popular programming (exc current affairs)
Programme Audience size ‘000 Reeling in the years 472.18 Keys to my life 469.59 Cheap Irish homes 448.35 Home of the year 438.23 Fair city 200% 435.45 Room to improveincrease in viewership since the start of the year407.23 Raised by the village 398.77 Coronation street 20 396.43 All round to mrs brown's 384.66 High road, low road 381.62
Source: Nielsen (All Adult15+ Viewing, Total TV, Viewing is Live Only and therefore is comparable YoY) Online streaming grows at record levels
Monthly Avg. March yoy increase
8,000,000 +47%
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000 +30% +26% 2,000,000
1,000,000
0 RTÉ Player All 4 Virgin Media Player
Source: Media Owners data March 2020 What this means for advertisers?
Covid led messaging moving towards “light Low cost to entry for TV – Long-term TV costs will entertainment” – eg: Sky AdSmart increase cookery programmes The evolution of social media Most used social platforms
Youtube 88% Facebook 78% WhatsApp 75% FB Messenger 66% Instagram 57% Twitter 45% Snapchat 35% LinkedIn 34% Pinterest 30% Skype 25% Viber 22% Reddit 21% Twitch 11% Timblr 11% Tiktok 10% Wechat 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: Globalwebindex – Survey – Self reported behaviour (age -16-64) The pivot to video
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Facebook Instagram Twitter Snapchat Video Non-Video
Source: Core 2019 Social Media Covid-19 Activities during this period
12th: 23rd 24th 22nd Call – Schools 14th – UK 17th – St 18th – 21st UK 27th Higher 13th – 15th – 16th – for greater close and Governmen Patrick’s Slower Lockdown level of Cheltenham Temple Bar Uncertainty Social panic t Day Decline Ireland restrictions Distancing buying Restrictions
9PM St Patricks Day & An Taoiseach 10PM national address Outrage as Temple 9pm Call for Bar Pubs greater Social remain open Distancing measures as 8.30pm people flock to Higher level of popular locations restrictions introduced by Irish Government
SOURCE – Brandwatch Covid-19 has dominated the conversation online
Pre-Covid : average 282 daily Covid : average 702 daily mentions mentions
SOURCE – Brandwatch Increased consumption is impacting engagement
SOURCE – Facebook API TikTok advertising has officially launched in Ireland
Social video app Entertainment based platform
Similar to Vine with extra features
Lip syncing, dancing, comedic skits Filters, music, promotes individualism Primary target audience <24 years old Irish stats
61 1 13 minute million Average 3 Billion Average Monthly times the Monthly time spend Active app is video views on the Users opened platform Key formats
1. Brand Takeover : 2. Topview: 3. In-feed : Full screen takeover with Video format that launches on Storytelling video format maximum awareness and opening the app embedded within the ‘for you’ impact feed
Major restriction – no targeting available in ROI just yet What this means for advertisers?
Increased usage of social TikTok is a big media platforms is Consumers are crying out – opportunity, but brand resulting in increased for more entertainment safety a big watch-out engagement with brands Audio and OOH in a digital era Ireland is a nation of listeners
81% 71% Adults listen daily 15-34 year olds listen daily
SOURCE – JNLR 2019 – Radio listenership Radio still the dominant medium for audio
SOURCE – JNLR 2019 Podcasts continue to grow Digital consumption
+1.5% >200% +27% Consumption all day, +21.9% Growth in versus peaks weekend digital and troughs consumption listenership when commuting What this means for advertisers?
More reactive than ever Local radio key for SME Great deals across all for advertisers audience stations including local OOH >90 Covid-19 % Bookings deferred since “lockdown” What this means for advertisers?
Retail sites/screens are H2 inflation will increase the main short-term significantly focus The value of a free and independent press INM Paywall/Journal donations Growth across print and digital
-10% +18/95%
Initial increase in print sales (average), Record traffic days for many sites which has now declined News the key driver Increase in e-papers and subscriptions Wk1/2 saw record levels Suburban focus Wk 3 onwards have witnessed a slight decline Weekend sales record 2020 as people move away from only focusing on news An Post now delivering newspapers
SOURCE – Newspapers Daily Mail Group and SME’s
The ads will run across DMG Media Ireland’s titles, including the Irish Daily Mail, the Irish Mail on Sunday, Extra.ie, EVOKE, RollerCoaster.ie, and MailOnline, which reach over 3.3m Irish adults every month in Ireland. What this means for advertisers?
Cross-media opportunities – great Trusted source of news value 30% decline in 1 MEDIA EXPENDITURE FORECASTS 2020
TV is a big 2 THE GROWTH OF VIDEO opportunity
TikTok is worth a 3 THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL MEDIA test
Increased AUDIO & OOH IN A DIGITAL ERA consumption of 4 digital
Trust is 5 THE VALUE OF A FREE AND INDEPENDENT invaluable PRESS Data sources
Covid Media Outlook 2020 – Contact details Consumption Habits
https://onecore.ie/intel/covi https://onecore.ie/outlook/ d-19/covid-19-changing- [email protected] media-habits/ Understand behavior to understand the future
At The Thinking House we have always Invested time in understanding the future.
Our most recent thought leadership work has explored scenarios for the future of our industry over the next 25 years, future innovations in the meat category and the future of ‘functional foods’ for the dairy category and beyond.
Our approach is always to put the consumer at the heart of how we go about understanding the future… Understand behavior to understand the future
We have also focused on understanding consumer behavior to help guide marketing and innovation strategy.
Our most recent behavioural study was ‘What Ireland Ate Last Night’; a large scale diary study of dietary habits.
In international markets we have used consumer ethnography to unlock insights around the drivers of consumer behavior. Future Proofing through behavioural research
The Covid-19 crisis has already ready produced dramatic changes in consumer and shopper behavior.
The Thinking House will track and trace these behavioural shifts to provide our client companies and their customers with a rich reservoir of insight. Our ambition is to identify behaviours that are ‘sticky’.
We have identified the ‘early indicators’ of key changes in consumer behaviour under three key areas:
• Macro Behaviour • Shopper Behaviour • Consumption Behaviour Future Proofing through behavioural research
And we are tracking the ‘stickiness’ of these early indicators through a regular pulse measure of consumer behaviour in key markets. This omnibus poll of consumer and shoppers will act as a behavioural montior:
• 1000 people per market
• 4 key markets • Ireland • GB • Germany • USA Working with us to Future Proof your business
The team at the Thinking House are developing a bespoke toolkit to enable producers and their customers work through the implications of these behavioural indicators. The toolkit is built around a simple three step-process that can be navigated by businesses large and small.
THINK PLAN Risk Mapping to allow businesses understand the DO relevance of these Pathway Development to behavioural indicators identify the ‘must dos’ for your business Game Plans to articulate your business or brands’ Horizon Checks to road test activation strategy the ‘stickiness’ of the Goal Setting to clearly behaviour to your category define your businesses’ activity goals Future Proofing through behavioural research
The Covid-19 crisis has already ready produced dramatic changes in consumer and shopper behavior.
The Thinking House will track and trace these behavioural shifts to provide our client companies and their customers with a rich reservoir of insight. Our ambition is to identify behaviours that are ‘sticky’.
We have identified the ‘early indicators’ of key changes in consumer behaviour under three key areas:
• Macro Behaviour • Shopper Behaviour • Consumption Behaviour Brand Communications Strategy Webinar
Date: Thursday 7th May ’20
Time: 11:00 - 12:00 hrs
Register: www.bordbia.ie/industry/covid-19