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Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft

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Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft Page 1 Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Fieldwork : January 5th-6th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 1 Q.1 Many local people are saying that they probably won't vote at all when the by-election happens on January 13th, while others say they definitely will vote. Please say how likely you are to vote in the by-election here? Base: All respondents Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Work Sector LibDem Don't 2010, Pri- know/ Lab Public vate Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Now Sector Sector Unweighted base 1503 708 795 318 601 584 583 253 207 460 82 419 219 502 192 403 365 66 306 507 Weighted base 1503 724 779 433 577 493 289 415 258 541 101 358 211 501 235 316 306 55 218 607 Certain to vote (10) 750 371 379 130 303 317 159 204 102 284 58 241 144 245 148 190 182 44 111 269 50% 51% 49% 30% 52% 64% 55% 49% 40% 53% 58% 67% 68% 49% 63% 60% 60% 81% 51% 44% (9) 80 37 43 28 25 28 20 27 9 24 14 16 16 30 19 17 20 4 12 33 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% 6% 4% 5% 14% 5% 8% 6% 8% 5% 6% 8% 5% 5% (8) 124 57 67 43 43 38 25 41 20 38 10 38 16 56 14 27 28 3 22 54 8% 8% 9% 10% 8% 8% 9% 10% 8% 7% 10% 11% 7% 11% 6% 8% 9% 6% 10% 9% (7) 61 25 37 24 25 12 13 21 10 18 4 18 6 30 8 14 12 1 5 30 4% 3% 5% 6% 4% 2% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% 6% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 5% (6) 27 13 14 10 14 4 5 8 3 11 4 3 12 7 4 6 9 - 1 18 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 1% 6% 1% 2% 2% 3% - 1% 3% (5) 125 51 74 47 56 22 20 30 32 42 9 32 11 62 12 22 18 1 16 60 8% 7% 9% 11% 10% 4% 7% 7% 12% 8% 9% 9% 5% 12% 5% 7% 6% 1% 7% 10% (4) 31 15 17 18 9 5 4 7 11 10 1 5 1 17 4 4 12 1 3 16 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% (3) 27 11 17 12 11 4 2 10 8 7 * 2 1 16 1 1 1 - 6 16 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% * 1% 1% 3% 1% * * - 3% 3% (2) 25 14 11 9 12 4 3 8 3 11 - 4 3 15 * 3 5 - 5 11 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% - 1% 1% 3% * 1% 1% - 2% 2% Definitely would (1) 230 121 109 109 72 49 36 54 54 87 - - - - 21 29 15 - 35 96 not vote 15% 17% 14% 25% 13% 10% 13% 13% 21% 16% - - - - 9% 9% 5% - 16% 16% Refused 3 2 2 - - 3 * 1 - 2 - - - 3 - 1 1 - - * * * * - - 1% * * - * - - - 1% - * * - - * Don't know 18 8 10 3 7 8 1 4 7 7 - - - 18 3 2 4 - 1 5 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% * 1% 3% 1% - - - 4% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% Mean 7.37 7.35 7.40 6.04 7.54 8.36 7.86 7.52 6.51 7.40 8.86 8.91 8.99 8.10 8.38 8.20 8.39 9.55 7.36 7.08 Standard deviation 3.40 3.49 3.32 3.62 3.28 2.94 3.16 3.27 3.62 3.46 1.73 1.89 1.83 2.44 2.84 2.90 2.59 1.19 3.49 3.41 Standard error 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.20 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.21 0.26 0.16 0.19 0.09 0.12 0.11 0.21 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.15 Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft Page 2 Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Fieldwork : January 5th-6th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 2 Q.2 How will you vote in next week's by-election? Base: All respondents Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Work Sector LibDem Don't 2010, Pri- know/ Lab Public vate Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Now Sector Sector Unweighted base 1503 708 795 318 601 584 583 253 207 460 82 419 219 502 192 403 365 66 306 507 Weighted base 1503 724 779 433 577 493 289 415 258 541 101 358 211 501 235 316 306 55 218 607 Kashif Ali the 101 53 48 29 46 26 21 34 24 22 101 - - - 71 5 5 - 13 55 Conservative Party 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 5% 7% 8% 9% 4% 100% - - - 30% 2% 2% - 6% 9% candidate Debbie Abrahams the 358 177 182 94 146 118 77 91 49 141 - 358 - - 21 200 55 55 59 132 Labour Party candidate 24% 24% 23% 22% 25% 24% 27% 22% 19% 26% - 100% - - 9% 63% 18% 100% 27% 22% Elwyn Watkins the 211 100 111 41 78 93 39 75 25 73 - - 211 - 51 10 107 - 28 79 Liberal Democrat 14% 14% 14% 9% 13% 19% 13% 18% 10% 14% - - 100% - 22% 3% 35% - 13% 13% candidate The UK Independence 40 30 11 4 20 16 11 3 3 23 - - - - 4 5 9 - 7 17 Party (UKIP) 3% 4% 1% 1% 4% 3% 4% 1% 1% 4% - - - - 2% 2% 3% - 3% 3% The Green Party 19 8 11 2 11 6 4 11 1 2 - - - - - 4 7 - 3 9 1% 1% 1% * 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% * - - - - - 1% 2% - 1% 1% The British National 32 23 9 7 10 15 2 5 10 15 - - - - 7 1 2 - 4 13 Party (BNP) 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 4% 3% - - - - 3% * 1% - 2% 2% The English Democrats 5 1 4 2 - 3 1 1 1 2 - - - - - - 4 - - 1 * * 1% 1% - 1% * * 1% * - - - - - - 1% - - * For some other party 6 5 1 - 4 2 2 - - 4 - - - - 1 1 - - - 2 * 1% * - 1% * 1% - - 1% - - - - 1% * - - - * Will not vote 230 121 109 109 72 49 36 54 54 87 - - - - 21 29 15 - 35 96 15% 17% 14% 25% 13% 10% 13% 13% 21% 16% - - - - 9% 9% 5% - 16% 16% Refused 178 73 105 35 57 87 31 46 22 78 - - - 178 11 19 18 - 19 63 12% 10% 13% 8% 10% 18% 11% 11% 9% 14% - - - 36% 4% 6% 6% - 9% 10% Don't know 323 134 189 110 132 81 64 95 68 95 - - - 323 48 42 84 - 51 140 21% 18% 24% 25% 23% 16% 22% 23% 26% 18% - - - 64% 20% 13% 27% - 23% 23% Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft Page 3 Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Fieldwork : January 5th-6th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 3 Q.1 Many local people are saying that they probably won't vote at all when the by-election happens on January 13th, while others say they definitely will vote. Please say how likely you are to vote in the by-election here? Q.2 How will you vote in next week's by-election? THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Work Sector LibDem Don't 2010, Pri- know/ Lab Public vate Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Now Sector Sector Unweighted base 609 317 292 92 246 271 255 107 65 183 61 320 170 - 98 232 186 55 136 185 Weighted base 565 297 268 110 234 220 120 166 73 205 74 266 159 - 123 176 148 46 89 210 Kashif Ali the 74 41 33 20 34 20 17 24 18 15 74 - - - 57 4 4 - 11 39 Conservative Party 13% 14% 12% 18% 14% 9% 14% 14% 24% 8% 100% - - - 46% 2% 3% - 12% 19% candidate Debbie Abrahams the 266 133 133 60 109 97 59 70 33 104 - 266 - - 15 157 46 46 44 91 Labour Party candidate 47% 45% 50% 55% 46% 44% 49% 42% 45% 51% - 100% - - 12% 89% 31% 100% 50% 43% Elwyn Watkins the 159 81 79 23 60 77 31 60 15 54 - - 159 - 42 6 82 - 23 55 Liberal Democrat 28% 27% 29% 21% 25% 35% 26% 36% 20% 26% - - 100% - 34% 3% 55% - 25% 26% candidate The UK Independence 28 20 8 1 17 10 7 2 2 16 - - - - 2 4 8 - 5 12 Party (UKIP) 5% 7% 3% 1% 7% 5% 6% 1% 3% 8% - - - - 2% 2% 5% - 6% 6% The Green Party 12 5 7 2 6 4 2 6 1 2 - - - - - 3 4 - 2 6 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1% - - - - - 2% 3% - 3% 3% The British National 19 15 4 2 7 10 1 3 4 11 - - - - 5 1 1 - 3 6 Party (BNP) 3% 5% 1% 2% 3% 5% 1% 2% 5% 6% - - - - 4% * 1% - 4% 3% The English Democrats 3 * 3 2 - 1 1 * 1 1 - - - - - - 3 - - 1 1% * 1% 2% - 1% 1% * 2% * - - - - - - 2% - - * For some other party 3 2 1 - 2 1 2 - - 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - 1 1% 1% * - 1% 1% 2% - - 1% - - - - 1% * - - - 1% Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft Page 4 Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Fieldwork : January 5th-6th 2011 Col percents Table 4 Published Voting Intention Total Conservative 15% Labour 46% Liberal Democrat 29% Other 10% Prepared by Populus for Lord Ashcroft Page 5 Oldham East & Saddleworth Poll Fieldwork : January 5th-6th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 5 Q.3 Are you fairly sure that you're going to vote for ..
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