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Oldham East & Saddleworth By-El

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Oldham East & Saddleworth By-El Page 1 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 1 Q.1 Most people ended up not voting in the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election on Thursday. Did you vote in the by-election, or like most people locally did you end up not voting? Base: All respondents Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Actual By-Election Vote Don't know/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Lab LibDem Con Other Unweighted base 500 232 268 50 174 276 196 79 52 173 31 151 86 183 81 145 150 196 133 30 45 Weighted base 500 237 263 50 173 278 200 78 52 170 45 132 84 185 101 129 146 170 129 52 53 Voted 500 237 263 50 173 278 200 78 52 170 45 132 84 185 101 129 146 170 129 52 53 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Did not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Lord Ashcroft Page 2 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 1 Q.1 Most people ended up not voting in the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election on Thursday. Did you vote in the by-election, or like most people locally did you end up not voting? Base: All respondents View of Coalition Work Sector Likelihood to Vote Conservative Contact Govt LibDem Con Deli- 2010, 2010, Pri- vered Writ- Knoc- Lab LibDem Public vate leaf- ten ked on Doing Doing Total Now Now Sector Sector 8-10 4-7 1-3 lets letter door well badly Unweighted base 500 46 33 96 133 441 37 18 361 163 36 208 271 Weighted base 500 40 32 93 138 440 38 18 362 165 34 223 256 Voted 500 40 32 93 138 440 38 18 362 165 34 223 256 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Did not vote - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Lord Ashcroft Page 3 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 2 Q.2 How did you end up voting in the by-election that took place on Thursday? Base: All respondents Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Actual By-Election Vote Don't know/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Lab LibDem Con Other Unweighted base 500 232 268 50 174 276 196 79 52 173 31 151 86 183 81 145 150 196 133 30 45 Weighted base 500 237 263 50 173 278 200 78 52 170 45 132 84 185 101 129 146 170 129 52 53 Kashif Ali the 52 33 19 5 16 31 31 7 5 9 33 - 2 16 47 - 3 - - 52 - Conservative Party 10% 14% 7% 10% 9% 11% 16% 9% 10% 5% 73% - 2% 8% 46% - 2% - - 100% - candidate Debbie Abrahams the 170 75 95 20 60 90 66 26 20 58 - 123 2 37 5 111 40 170 - - - Labour Party candidate 34% 32% 36% 40% 35% 33% 33% 33% 39% 34% - 93% 2% 20% 5% 86% 27% 100% - - - Elwyn Watkins the 129 68 61 9 47 74 54 23 11 41 9 2 74 38 32 6 76 - 129 - - Liberal Democrat 26% 29% 23% 18% 27% 27% 27% 30% 21% 24% 20% 1% 87% 20% 32% 5% 52% - 100% - - candidate The UK Independence 27 18 9 - 12 15 8 2 4 13 1 - - 9 9 1 9 - - - 27 Party (UKIP) 5% 7% 4% - 7% 6% 4% 3% 7% 8% 3% - - 5% 9% 1% 7% - - - 51% The British National 11 7 4 1 2 7 1 1 - 8 - - - 2 1 1 - - - - 11 Party (BNP) 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% - 5% - - - 1% 1% 1% - - - - 20% The Green Party 9 5 5 4 1 5 6 2 1 - - 1 1 1 - 2 6 - - - 9 2% 2% 2% 7% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% - - 1% 1% 1% - 2% 4% - - - 18% One of the other 6 4 2 - 4 2 2 - - 4 - - - 4 1 - 2 - - - 6 parties 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% - - 2% - - - 2% 1% - 2% - - - 11% Refused 96 28 68 11 32 53 31 16 11 38 2 6 6 78 5 7 9 - - - - 19% 12% 26% 22% 19% 19% 15% 20% 21% 22% 4% 5% 7% 42% 5% 5% 6% - - - - Lord Ashcroft Page 4 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 2 Q.2 How did you end up voting in the by-election that took place on Thursday? Base: All respondents View of Coalition Work Sector Likelihood to Vote Conservative Contact Govt LibDem Con Deli- 2010, 2010, Pri- vered Writ- Knoc- Lab LibDem Public vate leaf- ten ked on Doing Doing Total Now Now Sector Sector 8-10 4-7 1-3 lets letter door well badly Unweighted base 500 46 33 96 133 441 37 18 361 163 36 208 271 Weighted base 500 40 32 93 138 440 38 18 362 165 34 223 256 Kashif Ali the 52 - - 5 22 48 2 2 40 21 2 45 5 Conservative Party 10% - - 6% 16% 11% 5% 10% 11% 13% 5% 20% 2% candidate Debbie Abrahams the 170 40 - 42 41 154 8 7 118 52 16 23 142 Labour Party candidate 34% 100% - 45% 30% 35% 21% 39% 33% 32% 46% 10% 56% Elwyn Watkins the 129 - 32 22 32 116 7 5 96 42 9 88 34 Liberal Democrat 26% - 100% 24% 23% 26% 18% 27% 26% 25% 26% 40% 13% candidate The UK Independence 27 - - 5 7 18 7 2 19 6 - 12 14 Party (UKIP) 5% - - 5% 5% 4% 19% 13% 5% 4% - 5% 6% The British National 11 - - 2 5 8 2 - 5 2 - 4 7 Party (BNP) 2% - - 3% 3% 2% 6% - 1% 1% - 2% 3% The Green Party 9 - - 2 2 9 - - 7 2 - 2 7 2% - - 3% 2% 2% - - 2% 1% - 1% 3% One of the other 6 - - 1 2 5 1 - 6 4 - - 5 parties 1% - - 1% 2% 1% 3% - 2% 2% - - 2% Refused 96 - - 13 26 82 11 2 72 36 8 49 41 19% - - 14% 19% 19% 29% 11% 20% 22% 23% 22% 16% Lord Ashcroft Page 5 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 3 Q.2 How did you end up voting in the by-election that took place on Thursday? Base: All respondents who gave a party Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Actual By-Election Vote Don't know/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Lab LibDem Con Other Unweighted base 404 204 200 39 142 223 165 63 41 135 29 145 80 105 76 138 141 196 133 30 45 Weighted base 404 209 195 39 141 225 169 62 41 132 43 126 78 107 96 122 137 170 129 52 53 Kashif Ali the 52 33 19 5 16 31 31 7 5 9 33 - 2 16 47 - 3 - - 52 - Conservative Party 13% 16% 10% 13% 11% 14% 18% 11% 13% 7% 77% - 2% 14% 49% - 3% - - 100% - candidate Debbie Abrahams the 170 75 95 20 60 90 66 26 20 58 - 123 2 37 5 111 40 170 - - - Labour Party candidate 42% 36% 49% 52% 43% 40% 39% 42% 49% 44% - 98% 2% 35% 5% 91% 29% 100% - - - Elwyn Watkins the 129 68 61 9 47 74 54 23 11 41 9 2 74 38 32 6 76 - 129 - - Liberal Democrat 32% 32% 31% 23% 33% 33% 32% 37% 26% 31% 20% 2% 94% 35% 33% 5% 55% - 100% - - candidate The UK Independence 27 18 9 - 12 15 8 2 4 13 1 - - 9 9 1 9 - - - 27 Party (UKIP) 7% 8% 5% - 8% 7% 5% 4% 9% 10% 3% - - 9% 10% 1% 7% - - - 51% The British National 11 7 4 1 2 7 1 1 - 8 - - - 2 1 1 - - - - 11 Party (BNP) 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% - 6% - - - 2% 1% 1% - - - - 20% The Green Party 9 5 5 4 1 5 6 2 1 - - 1 1 1 - 2 6 - - - 9 2% 2% 2% 9% 1% 2% 4% 4% 3% - - 1% 2% 1% - 2% 4% - - - 18% One of the other 6 4 2 - 4 2 2 - - 4 - - - 4 1 - 2 - - - 6 parties 1% 2% 1% - 3% 1% 1% - - 3% - - - 3% 1% - 2% - - - 11% Lord Ashcroft Page 6 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 3 Q.2 How did you end up voting in the by-election that took place on Thursday? Base: All respondents who gave a party View of Coalition Work Sector Likelihood to Vote Conservative Contact Govt LibDem Con Deli- 2010, 2010, Pri- vered Writ- Knoc- Lab LibDem Public vate leaf- ten ked on Doing Doing Total Now Now Sector Sector 8-10 4-7 1-3 lets letter door well badly Unweighted base 404 46 33 83 107 359 26 16 289 127 28 159 230 Weighted base 404 40 32 80 112 358 27 16 290 129 26 174 215 Kashif Ali the 52 - - 5 22 48 2 2 40 21 2 45 5 Conservative Party 13% - - 6% 20% 13% 6% 11% 14% 16% 7% 26% 2% candidate Debbie Abrahams the 170 40 - 42 41 154 8 7 118 52 16 23 142 Labour Party candidate 42% 100% - 52% 36% 43% 29% 44% 41% 40% 60% 13% 66% Elwyn Watkins the 129 - 32 22 32 116 7 5 96 42 9 88 34 Liberal Democrat 32% - 100% 28% 29% 32% 25% 31% 33% 32% 33% 51% 16% candidate The UK Independence 27 - - 5 7 18 7 2 19 6 - 12 14 Party (UKIP) 7% - - 6% 6% 5% 26% 15% 7% 5% - 7% 7% The British National 11 - - 2 5 8 2 - 5 2 - 4 7 Party (BNP) 3% - - 3% 4% 2% 9% - 2% 2% - 2% 3% The Green Party 9 - - 2 2 9 - - 7 2 - 2 7 2% - - 3% 2% 3% - - 2% 2% - 1% 3% One of the other 6 - - 1 2 5 1 - 6 4 - - 5 parties 1% - - 1% 2% 1% 4% - 2% 3% - - 2% Lord Ashcroft Page 7 Oldham East & Saddleworth Recall Poll Fieldwork : January 14th-16th 2011 Absolutes/col percents Table 4 Q.3 When did you decide how you were going to vote in the by-election? Base: All respondents Gender Age SEG Vote Intention Vote in 2010 Actual By-Election Vote Don't know/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE Con Lab LibDem Refuse Con Lab LibDem Lab LibDem Con Other Unweighted base 500 232 268 50 174 276 196 79 52 173 31 151 86 183 81 145 150 196 133 30 45 Weighted base 500 237 263 50 173 278 200 78 52 170 45 132 84 185 101 129 146 170 129 52 53 At the last minute/on 76 31 45 11 27 39 29 12 11 24 10 4 5 42 19 11 22 19 20 7 15 the day of the election 15% 13% 17% 21% 15% 14% 15% 15% 21% 14% 21% 3% 6% 23% 19% 9% 15% 11% 16% 13% 29% Earlier this week/in 51 25 26 6 24 20 17 8 10 16 2 4 5 35 11 9 14 9 13 5 8 the last few days 10% 10% 10% 12% 14% 7% 8% 10% 19% 9% 4% 3% 6% 19% 11% 7% 9% 5% 10% 10% 16% before the election Last week/a couple of 58 28 30 6 20 32 21 6 4 27 2 15 15 21 10 11 24 21 17 2 5 weeks ago 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 10% 7% 8% 16% 4% 11% 17% 11% 10% 9% 16% 12% 14% 3% 9% Earlier in the 69 40 28 6 23 40 29 9 10 21 5 18 11 25 14 17 16 22 14 7 9 campaign/before 14% 17% 11% 12% 13% 15% 14% 12% 20% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 14% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% 18% Christmas Before the campaign 238 113 126 20 78 140 102 44 14 79 26 91 47 57 45 78 67 98 62 31 14 started/as soon as it 48% 47% 48% 40% 45% 51% 51% 56% 27% 46% 59% 69% 56% 31% 45% 61% 46% 58% 48% 60% 27% was clear there was going to be a by- election Don't know 9 1 8
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