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Designing a Better Paper Helicopter Using Response Surface Methodology Looking for A Numb3rs, Sabermetrics, Joe Jackson, and Steroids Larry Lesser Explains How Learning Stats Is FUN! THE MAGAZINE FOR STUDENTS OF STATISTICS : : ISSUE 48 Designing a Better Paper Helicopter Using Response Surface Methodology Looking for a our career as a statistician is important to the YASA, and we are here to help you realize your professional goals. JOB? The ASA JobWeb is a targeted job database and résumé-posting service that will help you take advantage of valuable resources and opportunities. Check out the many services available from the ASA JobWeb. VIEW ALL JOBS...Search by keyword, job category, type of job, job level, state/country location, job posting date, and date range of job posting. ADVANCED SEARCH...Use multiple search criteria for more targeted results. MAINTAIN A PERSONAL ACCOUNT…Manage your job search, update your profile, and edit your résumé. (ASA members only) USE A PERSONAL SEARCH AGENT…Receive email notification when new jobs match your criteria. (ASA members only) ADVERTISE YOUR RÉSUMÉ…Post a confidential profile so employers can find you. Registered job seekers can submit their résumés to the résumé database in a “public” (full résumé and contact information) or “confidential” (identity and contact information withheld) capacity. A confidential submission means only an employer can contact the applicant using a “blind” email. (ASA members only) http://jobs.amstat.org Visit the ASA JobWeb online TODAY! STATS “What nature does blindly, slowly, and ruthlessly, man may do providently, quickly, and kindly. As it lies within “his power, so it becomes his duty to work in that direction.” STATS Sir Francis Galton, 1905 contents guest writers Numb3rs, Sabermetrics, featuresSPECIAL TOPICS Joe Jackson, and Steroids Numb3rs, JIM ALBERT Sabermetrics, ([email protected]) is Joe Jackson, and professor of mathematics Steroids and statistics at Bowling Green State University. Learning Stats Is His research interests are in Bayesian modeling, FUN... with the statistical education, Right Mode and the application of statistics in sports (especially baseball). He is a former editor Designing a Better of Th e American Statistician, enjoys playing Paper Helicopter tennis, and is an avid baseball fan. His dreams will come true when the Phillies Using Response next win the World Series. Surface Methodology Learning Stats Is FUN... with the page 7 Right Mode LAWRENCE (LARRY) LESSER is an associate professor at Th e University of Texas at El Paso and on the Research Advisory Board COLUMNScolumns of the Consortium for the Advancement EDITOR'S COLUMN 2 of Undergraduate Statistics Education (CAUSE). His web site and contact ASK STATS information are at www.math.utep.edu/ What Is This Statistics Faculty/lesser/Mathemusician.html. Education Stuff? 12 AP STATISTICS Designing a Better Paper Vocabulary Is More Than Helicopter Using Response Just Knowing the Words 22 Surface Methodology ERIK BARRY ERHARDT REFERENCES and was introduced to response surface Additional methodology while Reading List 26 studying for a master’s of science degree in statistics at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Currently, he is a PhD student at the University of New Mexico and a member of the Albuquerque Chapter of the ASA. He enjoys teaching and research, and he likes page 22 to continually improve things. EDITOR’S COLUMN EDITOR Paul J. Fields Department of Statistics Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602 pjfi [email protected] DIRECTOR OF PROGRAMS Martha Aliaga American Statistical Association 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314-1943 [email protected] n this issue, Jim Albert is our “lead-off batter,” with an article about statistics on television. Did you see the Numbrs episode, EDITORIAL BOARD I“Hardball,” last November about sabermetrics, Peter Flanagan-Hyde the statistical analysis of baseball? Albert is our Mathematics Department Phoenix Country Day School, Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 resident STATS sabermetrician. He poses some pfl [email protected] interesting questions based on that episode. You Schuyler W. Huck will be intrigued by his answers. By the way, do you Department of Educational Psychology and Counseling University of Tennessee know the origin of the word “sabermetrics”? “Saber” Knoxville, TN 37996 comes from the acronym SABR for the Society for [email protected]@cr.k12.ia.us American Baseball Research, and “metrics” refers to Jackie Miller measures of performance. Department of Statistics The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 Learning stats can be fun! Just ask Larry Lesser. [email protected] He has put together a huge collection of jokes, Chris Olsen Department of Mathematics songs, books, games, poems, and more to help George Washington High School, Cedar Rapids, IA 53403 us learn statistics and have fun at the same time. [email protected] Th ere is a long list of references to statistics fun in Bruce Trumbo References and Additional Reading starting on Page Department of Statistics California State University, East Bay, Hayward, CA 94542 and an even longer list on the STATS web site, [email protected] www.amstat.org/publications/stats. Th ink of some more ways to have fun learning stats and send them PRODUCTION/DESIGN to us to share with other STATS readers. Megan Murphy Jackie Miller, who writes for the column Ask Communications Manager American Statistical Association STATS, asked Joan Garfi eld, “What Is Statistics Val Snider Education?” STATS considers Garfi eld the foremost Publications Coordinator authority on statistics education in the country— American Statistical Association no, make that the world—and she has taken the Colby Johnson • Lidia Vigyázó Graphic Designers/Production Coordinators time to explain to us what statistics education is all American Statistical Association about. Read what a true pioneer has to say about this important topic. STATS: The Magazine for Students of Statistics (ISSN 1053-8607) is published three times a year, in the winter, What performance measure would make a paper spring, and fall, by the American Statistical Association, 732 helicopter “the best”? Maximum hang time, right? North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314-1943 Statistics doctoral student Erik Erhardt explains USA; (703) 684-1221; www.amstat.org. STATS is published for beginning statisticians, including high school, undergraduate, in our cover feature how he and classmate Hantao and graduate students who have a special interest in statistics, Mai optimized the design of a paper helicopter to and is provided to all student members of the ASA at no get the best performance. At the right is a strobe additional cost. Subscription rates for others: $15.00 a year for ASA members; $20.00 a year for nonmembers; $25.00 for a photograph of his helicopters in action—a full-size Library subscription. model and a scaled-down “nanocopter.” Look at the Ideas for feature articles and materials for departments photo carefully. Which one has the longer hang time? should be sent to Editor Paul J. Fields at the address listed above. Material must be sent as a Microsoft Word After you read Erik’s article, try the experiment STROBE PHOTOGRAPH of a document. Accompanying artwork will be accepted in four yourself, and then let us know what you discover full-size model and scaled-down graphics formats only: EPS, TIFF, PDF, or JPG (minimum about paper helicopters. paper helicopters in flight 300 dpi). No articles in WordPerfect will be accepted. Requests for membership information, advertising rates In order to design good experiments to build a and deadlines, subscriptions, and general correspondence better paper helicopter, develop a new drug, or grow bigger shrimp, we need to should be addressed to the ASA offi ce. speak the language of experimentation. Peter Flanagan-Hyde says vocabulary is Copyright (c) 2007 American Statistical Association. more than just knowing the words, though. Read his AP Statistics article and fi nd out what he means by that. He gives us some lessons for learning statistics that will help us “take it to the next level.” 2 ISSUE 48 STATS Numb3rs, Sabermetrics, Joe Jackson, and Steroids by Jim Albert umbrs” is a prime time “ television show, currently in its Nfourth season, that follows FBI Special Agent Don Eppes and his brother, Charlie. Together, they fi ght crime and pursue criminals. Th ere are many shows of this type on television; what makes “Numbrs” notable is that Charlie is a mathematical genius, and his mathematical insights usually are crucial to solving the crimes. Th e show illustrates the use of mathematics in diff erent ways and throughout many walks of life. Generally supported by the mathematics community, “Numbrs” sends the positive message that “math is cool.” Th e “Numbrs” episode that aired November , , titled “Hardball,” focused on the use of steroids in baseball. Th is is a timely subject, as some professional baseball players recently admitted to using illegal human growth hormones to enhance their performance. In particular, many people have claimed that Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa—great home-run sluggers over the last years—used steroids murder. When FBI agents explore the victim’s during their careers. Some think steroids may have recent email messages, they fi nd an interesting contributed to Bonds’ record of hitting home attachment containing a long list of equations. Th ey runs during the baseball season. discover the author of the equations is a young “sabermetrician,” an analyst of baseball statistics, Sabermetrics who claims to have discovered an equation that In the “Hardball” episode, a professional baseball uses batting statistics to detect players using player dies during a practice, and it is found that steroids. Charlie checks out the equation and he received a toxic dose of steroids, which suggests discovers it can reliably detect the players who ISSUE 48 STATS 3 use illegal drugs. When Charlie is surprised at Joe Jackson this, “Numbrs” local physics professor Larry In , the Cincinnati Reds upset the Chicago Fleinhardt comments: White Sox in the World Series of baseball.
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