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The Army and the Future of Land Warfare

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The Army and the Future of Land Warfare Transforming the Legions: The Army and the Future of Land Warfare Andrew F. Krepinevich 1730 R hode Island Avenue, NW, Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 Transforming the Legions: The Army and the Future of Land Warfare by Andrew F. Krepinevich Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 2004 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent public policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking about defense planning and investment strategies for the 21st century. CSBA’s analytic-based research makes clear the inextricable link between defense strategies and budgets in fostering a more effective and efficient defense, and the need to transform the US military in light of the emerging military revolution. CSBA is directed by Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich and funded by foundation, corporate and individual grants and contributions, and government contracts. 1730 Rhode Island Ave., NW Suite 912 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 331-7990 http://www.csbaonline.org ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to express his deep appreciation to Steve Kosiak, Pat Towell, Michael Vickers, and Barry Watts for their helpful and insightful comments on earlier versions of this study. In addition, critical research support was ably provided by Christopher Sullivan and Todd Lowery. I also benefited greatly from the efforts of Kyle Stelma, whose research support was indispensable to an earlier version of this study. Of course, any shortcomings are mine alone. Andrew Krepinevich CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................... I I. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................1 Transforming the Legions....................................................................................1 What This Study Is—and Is Not............................................................................2 Joint and Combined Operations..........................................................................3 Current State of the Competition.........................................................................3 Key Trends Influencing Land Warfare.................................................................5 Geopolitical—The Rise of Regional Powers, Radical Islam and Nuclear Proliferation....................................................................................................5 Military-Technical...........................................................................................7 Key Assumptions (c. 2013–2018).........................................................................9 The Missile/Anti-Missile Regime Will Remain Offense Dominant...................9 Current Forms of Stealth Will Endure...........................................................10 Identifying and Defeating Critical Mobile and Deep Underground Targets Will Remain Difficult.....................................................................................10 Sanctuaries Will Grow in Importance...........................................................10 The Sanctuary Factor Will Not Extend to the United States.......................11 Information Operations, in and of Themselves, Will Not Be Decisive in Warfare..........................................................................................................12 Highly Distributed, Highly Networked Military Operations Are Possible in the Next Decade...........................................................................................12 Joint Transformation Will Yield Significant Gaps........................................13 II. THE ARMY’S CHALLENGE .........................................................................................15 Current Strategic Imperatives...........................................................................15 Homeland Defense.............................................................................................17 Power Projection................................................................................................19 Anti-Access and Area Denial........................................................................20 Urban Eviction and Control...........................................................................25 Other Challenges................................................................................................27 Large Critical State Failure..........................................................................27 Nuclear State Failure and a Second Nuclear Age........................................28 III. ASSESSING ARMY TRANSFORMATION ........................................................................31 Vision..................................................................................................................31 Operational Concepts........................................................................................33 Rapid Decisive Operations and Effects-Based Operations..........................33 Army Transformation Concepts of Operation: An Overview........................35 Anti-Access/Area-Denial...............................................................................35 Deploying the Force...................................................................................................38 Combat Operations.......................................................................................42 A Retreat from the Vision?.........................................................................................44 The Nonlinear Battlefield............................................................................................45 Force Structure..................................................................................................46 Stryker Brigade Combat Teams...................................................................46 A Bridge to the Future Force?......................................................................49 The Future Force..........................................................................................52 Beyond the Open Battle.....................................................................................60 Urban Operations..........................................................................................60 Homeland Defense and Stability Operations...............................................64 IV. KEY ENABLERS: LIFT, LOGISTICS AND THE RESERVES..................................................67 Strategic Lift and Rapid Deployment.................................................................67 Strategic Lift......................................................................................................68 The C-130......................................................................................................70 Advanced Airlift and Sealift..........................................................................73 Advanced Airlift..........................................................................................................73 Advanced Sealift.........................................................................................................75 Beyond the Current Deployment Metrics.....................................................77 Logistics.............................................................................................................78 Army Transformation and the Reserve Component..........................................82 V. BARRIERS TO TRANSFORMATION...............................................................................85 Leader Tenure: The Chief of Staff’s Dilemma....................................................85 Operational Issues.............................................................................................86 Joint Risk......................................................................................................86 Strategic Mobility.........................................................................................87 Sustainment..................................................................................................88 Technical............................................................................................................88 Modernization Strategy and Transformation.....................................................89 False Starts...................................................................................................93 Dead Ends.....................................................................................................93 Training: The Importance of Field Exercises....................................................95 Funding Transformation.....................................................................................99 Personnel..........................................................................................................103 Manning the Force......................................................................................103 Recruiting and Retaining the Future Force................................................105 The Vision Thing..............................................................................................106 VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................107 An Azimuth for Transformation........................................................................107 Army Transformation:
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