Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 1. The Big Picture

Turkey pledges more support for GNA; IS renews allegiance Turkey’s expanding involvement in support of the room to grow and consolidate. At the time of Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) publication, emerging reports indicate a continued to dominate this week’s developments, heightened threat of attack in the Sirte district. raising concerns over a potential response from The group’s resurgence in Libya has recently Cairo and wider regional intervention to assist the been echoed in statements by a senior US Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Khalifa Haftar. On the defence official. ground positions saw little to no change, though CONTENTS escalation came in the form of an airstrike targeting In the oil & gas sector, Haftar’s comments to Bloomberg reaffirming the LNA’s commitment to a migrant detention centre in Tripoli. The incident, for 1 which both GNA and LNA forces have traded international legally-binding contracts came in accusations, provoked international outcry. Amid the response to questions over eastern-based NOC THE BIG PICTURE showdown, the Islamic State (IS) made a attempts to market crude independently. The Turkey pledges more support reappearance in a propaganda video renewing its comments were welcomed by the Tripoli-based for GNA; IS renews allegiance pledge of allegiance to its self-declared leader Abu NOC, which it described as “commitment to the Bakr Al-Baghdadi. legitimacy of the NOC and its sole right to export 2 Libyan oil in accordance with Libyan law and NATIONWIDE SECURITY On 05 Jul, GNA PM Fayez Sarraj met with Turkish United Nations Security Council (UNSC) President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a visit to Turkey resolutions.” Events, Analysis and Data on 05 Jul. Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s support for the GNA and called on Haftar’s forces to cease However, tensions over the country’s resources 3 combat operations. Initial reports indicate Turkey will are far from over and it would be premature to SECURITY BY NUMBERS provide the GNA with at least eight additional equate Haftar’s comments with assurances that a Charts, Statistics and Analysis unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which if disruption to O&G production is unlikely in the short to medium term. In fact, Haftar’s written confirmed, would be the latest weapons shipment 4 after multiple other documented military hardware answers to Bloomberg have emphasized the deliveries. Turkish involvement in Libya is set to importance of a fair distribution of O&G revenues. TRIPOLI REPORT increase because of geostrategic interests that Haftar has underlined the LNA’s security function News & Neighborhoods Ankara is seeking to secure in the Mediterranean. to protect O&G infrastructure, without ruling out Analysts argue that assistance to the GNA is only the possibility of a concerted political effort by the 5 part of a broader effort to curtail Greece’s influence eastern bloc to access oil revenues. Meanwhile, BENGHAZI REPORT Haftar denied the LNA seized NOC airports, in the Mediterranean and its claims over Libyan News & Neighborhoods territorial waters. Beyond ideological alignment though he stressed the “right” to use them if between pro-islamists in Tripoli and Turkey’s Justice deemed necessary given the state of general and Development Party (AKP), the Turkish Navy is mobilization. In a direct warning to the NOC, 6 reportedly seeking to demarcate territorial borders to Haftar also called on the NOC not to utilise its WHAT’S NEXT maximize its leverage in regional negotiations over resources to support terrorists and armed militias Forward Looking Expert offshore hydrocarbon resources. In addition, Ankara and to “avoid working against the army”. Seen Opinions is set on reviving pending construction contracts and from this angle, Haftar’s comments fall short of other economic interests worth an estimated $18 providing concrete guarantees, though they have billion. helped boost confidence in the country’s O&G sector. Libya’s current production hovers around Meanwhile, as Turkish involvement widened in the 1 million barrels per day (bpd) mark. Platts’ scope, the Islamic State (IS) reaffirmed its presence latest survey estimates Libya pumped 1.08 this week in a propaganda video released on 06 Jul. million bpd in Jun, representing a 40 kbpd loss The video shows approximately 68 militants from the previous month. renewing their pledge of allegiance “Baya”, including the speaker identified as “Abu Musab Al-Libi”, in KEY POINTS addition to a dozen vehicles in an unidentified desert • GNA PM visits Turkish President area. Yet beyond the theatrics, the video • IS reemerges in new allegiance video corroborates assessments the group’s capabilities have been crippled. However, with combat ops in • Haftar denies LNA role in bypassing NOC Tripoli now taking centre stage, IS will have plenty of

Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved.

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019

2. National Security Map LNA downs GNA L-39 Albatros aircraft; GNA detains two Russians suspected of election interference

Key LNA spox. Ahmed Al-Mesmari stated a GNA L-39 Albatros aircraft THREAT INDICATORS was shot down near Tarhunah at Severe Threat approximately 1930hrs on 04 Jul. The GNA confirmed losing contact with an L-39 aircraft on a combat High Threat mission South of Tripoli. Initial reports indicate the aircraft took off Moderate Threat from Misrata International Airport (MRA). Two Libyan pilots were Shahat Security Directorate killed. announced a suicide bombing attempt was foiled on 08 Mar. A Reports indicate an LNA airstrike EVENT INDICATORS 13 year-old Egyptian national was targeted a military convoy reportedly arrested carrying an travelling Southwest of Brak in the IED | VBIED improvised explosive device evening on 04 Jul, with no further (IED), which he planned to information on the intended target. Violent Clash detonate in a busy market, in the Separately, an LNA airstrike city’s Souq Al Jum'aa area. No targeted fuel smugglers near further information available. Mizdah in the evening on 04 Jul. Isolated Gunfire Unconfirmed reports suggest Other unidentified assailants kidnapped On 05 Jul, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated it is a Lebanese doctor working for the verifying reports of the detention of two Russians Health Center Al Zyghn in Zyghn, in Tripoli accused of influencing upcoming Northeast of Sabha, on 02 Jul. elections in the country. Bloomberg reported Reports indicate the doctor was GNA law enforcement officers detained two kidnapped from his residence with Russians accused of attempting to influence no further information available. upcoming elections in Libya. Local officials Sources reported armed clashes allege the Russian individuals have established between locals and Tebu forces in contact with Gaddafi’s son, Saif Al-Islam. Murzuq in the morning on 06 Jul. Tebu forces led by Hassan Mousa Reports indicate GNA forces closed the road vowed to seize the town and between Misrata and Bani Waled in the morning extend GNA control over it. The on 03 Jul. Initial reports indicate GNA-affiliated clashes resulted in the death of a Misrata militias cut off vital supplies, including local man and the injury of two fuel and cooking gas cylinders. No further others. Conflicting reports suggest information. the clashes were due to a local Tunisian protestors temporarily closed the dispute between Tebu tribesmen. Coastal Road between Libya and Tunisia (Ra's Ajdir - Ben Gardane) at approximately 1730hrs At night on 06 Jul, reports indicate a pro-LNA battalion arrested on 04 Jul. Initial reports indicate security members on the Libyan side of the Ras Ajdir members of a pro-GNA sleeper border crossing arrested a Tunisian from Ben cell in Sabratah who were Gardane, resulting in the protest. The road was reportedly planning to launch an reopened at 2030hrs on 04 Jul. anti-LNA attack from within, similar to tactics used in the GNA’s Gharyan offensive on 26 Jun. Libya Weekly Political and Security Update Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. 2

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019

3. Nationwide Security Analysis Surge in nationwide fatalities due to Tripoli migrant detention centre fatalities

Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by type of attack (Past week) type of attack (Past week)

261 Airstrike Arrest Violent Clash Mortar/Rocket Violent Clash Explosion Fire Isolated Gunfire Subscribe to Read More… Carjacking Robbery Assassination Isolated Gunfire Attack Suicide Assassination Raid Suicide 122

Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by national district (Past week) national district (Past week)

Tripoli

Tripoli Al-Jabal Al- Gharbi Benghazi

Al-Murgub (Al- Al-Murgub (Al- Khums) Khums) Al-Wahat Subscribe to Read More… Subscribe to Read More… (Ajdabiya) Al-Jfara

Al-Wahat Az-Zawiyah (Ajdabiya) Misratah

Sabha Az-Zawiyah Wadi Al-Shatii

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Whispering Bell July 9, 2019

Nationwide Fatalities by Type of Attack (Past 27 Weeks)

Isolated Gunfire IED/VBIED Violent Clash Total

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Data Analysis

WB recorded this week a total of 266 confirmed deaths in Libya, which compares to 51 deaths reported last week and 24 the week before. This week marked a sharp increase in nationwide fatalities due to an updated Tripoli casualty toll, with an airstrike hitting a migrant detention centre resulting in 53 fatalities and 130 injuries; the highest recorded death toll as a result of a single incident since the Tripoli offensive began on 04 Apr. Similar to previous weeks, the highest number of fatalities were recorded in Tripoli followed by the wider Western region, with an additional fatality recorded in the Al-Wahat district due to a suicide. In contrast to the pattern witnessed over previous weeks, this week saw a sharp drop in violent clashes recorded in the Tripoli district which would come amid an absence of significant changes in control and limited military activity. Airstrikes marked the highest number of security incidents this week, followed by a surge in arrests, whilst there was a decrease in violent clashes, mortar/rocket shelling incidents, and explosions heard. Similar to last week, WB recorded security incidents across Libya’s Western, Southern and Eastern regions, with no incidents recorded in central Libya. Several security incidents were reported throughout the country including, 26 airstrikes, 8 arrests, 6 violent clashes, 5 mortar/rocket shelling incidents, 4 explosions heard, 4 carjackings, 3 robberies, 3 cases of isolated gunfire, 3 attacks, 2 assassinations, 1 raid and 1 suicide.

In Western Libya, WB recorded a total of 61 incidents, including 49 incidents in the capital city, Tripoli, marking a decrease in incidents recorded in Tripoli and in the wider Western region. In Tripoli, WB sources reported a military commander was assassinated as he was leaving a mosque in Tripoli’s Tajoura area in the early hours of 29 Jun. Initial unconfirmed reports suggest the commander was affiliated with the LNA. On 30 Jun, clashes were marked by a Libyan National Army (LNA) airstrike targeting a Turkish unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) parked at Mitiga International Airport (MJI), resulting in an approximate two-hour closure between 2000hrs-2200hrs. Initial reports indicate MJI’s runway was hit. The LNA claims it targeted the UAV as it was preparing for takeoff and destroyed it. Meanwhile, the LNA spokesperson, Ahmed Al-Mesmari, stated that its Air Force (LAF) destroyed the main UAV Operations Room located inside MJI’s Airbase. In the wider Western region, Ahmed Al-Mesmari reported a GNA L-39 Albatros aircraft was shot down near Tarhunah at approximately 1930hrs on 04 Jun. The GNA confirmed losing contact with an L-39 aircraft that was conducting a combat mission South of Tripoli. Initial reports indicate the aircraft took off from Misrata International Airport (MRA), with the latest reports indicating two Libyan pilots were killed.

In the central region, no security incidents were reported, though local reports indicate the Presidential Council (PC) Vice President, Ahmed Maiteg, held a security meeting with military and security leaders during his visit to Sirte on 30 Jun. The meeting discussed Sirte’s security situation following the outbreak of clashes in the Tripoli district on 04 Apr.

Turning to Southern Libya, reports indicate an LNA airstrike targeted a military convoy travelling Southwest of Brak in the evening on 04 Jul, with no further information on the intended target. Separately, reports suggest a pro-LNA battalion captured a prominent criminal in Sabha’s Al-Jadid area on 05 Jul.

In Eastern Libya, indiscriminate gunfire related incidents and arrests were recorded in Benghazi.

Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 4 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. In Eastern Libya, no security incidents were reported beyond the city of Benghazi.

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 4. Tripoli Neighborhood Report Airstrike targets migrant detention centre; Al-Bugra militia targets MJI

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LNA advances on Espiaa front attack on the migrant centre, it expressed general 6 concerns over conditions at detention centres which KEY INCIDENTS Sources reported the Libyan National Army (LNA) advanced South of Espiaa and mobilized in Eastern are under the “responsibility of the Libyan 1. (28-29 Jun) GNA advance on Espiaa Al-Kasarat. Meanwhile, Government of National Government”. The statement also expressed deep front Accord (GNA) forces retreated and were stationed in concern over a worsening humanitarian situation Gharyan’s Al-Heera area. To corroborate the LNA’s and called on parties to grant full access for 2. (29 Jun) Militia commander advance on the Espiaa front, the LNA’s Dignity humanitarian agencies, in addition to fully respect assassinated in Tajoura Operations Room Media Centre reported its units the arms embargo by all member states in line with controlled the Al-Kassarat area after defeating GNA resolution 1970 (2011). 3. (29 Jun) SDF ambush gunmen forces led by Osama Juwaili on 02 Jul. behind kidnapping & carjackings Al-Bugra militia targets MJI; aircraft damaged 4. (29-30 Jun) LNA airstrike targets Airstrike hits migrant detention centre killing 53 The 02 Jul clashes were marked by an increase in WB sources reported shells targeted Mitiga Turkish UAV parked at MJI airstrikes, including the targeting of Tajoura’s International Airport (MJI), resulting in a two-hour 5. (01 Jul) Unconfirmed casualties due Detention Centre, resulting in approximately 53 air traffic suspension at approximately 2000hrs on to shelling in Hadba Mashroo fatalities as well as wounding at least 130 others 07 Jul, with operations resuming later at between 2300hrs-0000hrs on 02-03 Jul. Sources approximately 2200hrs. Initial reports indicate Al- 6. (02 Jul) Airstrike hits detention centre; reported two LNA airstrikes targeted the adjacent Al- Bugra militia was behind the incident. One of the 53 killed & 130 injured Daman Camp used to store ammunition. An shells landed near an MJI maintenance warehouse unattributed airstrike targeted the nearby migrant targeting an Afriqiyah Airways aircraft and 7. (02 Jul) BPMC reports’ shells land detention centre. Both the GNA and LNA issued wounding three of the airlines’ technicians. During near company’s facilities counter claims of responsibility. The LNA’s Military MJI’s temporary closure, an aircraft from Tunisia Carthage Airport was diverted to Misrata 8. (03 Jul) LNA airstrikes target MJI; Operations Room Medical Centre reported that the precision airstrike was carried out by GNA forces International Airport (MRA). Prisoners held by the LNA destroy UAV Ops. Room after the LNA targeted the Al-Daman Camp in an Special Deterrence Force (SDF) at Mitiga prison 9. (03 Jul) Parked vehicle stolen in front effort to incite public opinion against the LNA. have been at the source of a long-standing dispute with Al-Bugra militia. Al-Bugra militia’s involvement, of house in Al-Furnaj Meanwhile, the Presidential Council (PC) condemned the incident. The United Nations Security if confirmed, would indicate a failure of recent 10. (05 Jul) Carjacking and two separate Council (UNSC) issued a statement condemning the mediation efforts by GNA PM Fayez Sarraj to strike vehicle thefts attack and calling on all parties to “urgently de- an agreement between the militia and the SDF. escalate the situation and commit to a ceasefire”, as 11. (05-06 Jul) UNSC calls for ceasefire well as return to the UN- led political process. Whilst as death toll rises to 1000 the statement failed to mention the group behind the

Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 5 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved.

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 5. Benghazi Neighborhood Report Kidnapped Libyan Airlines pilot released & received by colleagues at BEN

3 T a 3 n n k k e e r 3 r T n T a k a r e 1 3 r g r T n g e T a k e t n e e a t 2 k r d r e n e T n g d k r a e e n e T r a t e r a g r e a T r e S d r a g t ir n S r e e t e ir g t d e a t e e n E r e t d e g S E e n a y ir g d e r p t y Multiple criminals arrested Kidnapped Libyan Airlines pilotn released KEY INCIDENTSa S ti e p Local reports from 06 Jul indicate Benghazi’s Local reports indicate the e Libyan Airlines r ir Securitya director, Brig Gen Adel Abdulaziz, spokesman, Izz Aldin Al-Mashnoun, announced 1. (01 Jul)E Indiscriminateti gunfire a S t touredn multiple sites in the city, including the the release of its pilot Nawri Al-Atrash, who they injures twog Egyptians nationalsa r y ir e n supportN training camp at Ras Al-Munqar, Al- claimed was kidnapped by an unidentified armed 2. (01 Jul) Libyan Airlines confirm Sabri Corniche, Suleiman Al-Darrat Complex group on 07 May in Tripoli, anS d confirmed his t E a release pof kidnapped pilotN and the Corniche opposite the courthouse. arrival to Benghazi’s Benina Internationalir Airport ti e g ti a The patrol led to the arrest of two individuals (BEN). Al-Mashnoun reported tthat Al-Atrash was 3. (03 Jul)a CrackdownE y of female ato the corniche opposite the courthouse, in received in the airport by his fellow colleagues. ti e beggars’n resultsg in arrestsp additionn to the arrest of three individuals at the Sources reported the release of Al-Atrash on 05 o E 4. (06 Jul) NSecurityy inspectionti n tour 23rda June Park, all suspected of crimes May. Al-Atrash, originally from Benghazi, was related to narcotics. Two other drug dealers g results ina multiplep arrestsa a l kidnapped from Tripoli’s Al-Safi Hotel. Past were also arrested near the Al-Darrat reports indicate the involvementy of GNA-aligned ti ti n K l Complex. forces in a kidnapping incidentp reportedly fuelled a N il o K by Al-Atrash’s pro-eastern/LNAti political views. n a l n il Crackdown on female beggars a N ti e a l Reports indicate Benghazi’s Women’s Police n a o d l e Department launched a widespread campaign N ti n toi crackdown on beggars, where several K d a il o a i femalen beggars consisting of various nationalities were arrested on 03 Jul. There is ti l n l n B no further information available. o a K e e B n d l il e n Indiscriminate gunfire a K l g i n Local reports from 01 July indicate l il e h n g indiscriminate gunfire in Benghazi’s 23rd July K l d a B h Park, also known as Tibesti garden, resulted il e i inz the injury of two Egyptian nationals at e a l n d n z approximatelyi 0130hrs on 23 Jul. An unidentified gunman reportedly opened fire in e g i B i I the park. The motive is unknown. d n e E h I i a B n E D Libya Weekly Political and Security Update n z e g D s 6 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute B for detailed advice in individuali cases. It isn provided “has is” and without warranty of anDy kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. e g a e I D n E h z e f

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019

6. What’s next LNA to target additional Turkish/GNA assets; renewed LNA offensive

POLITICAL FORECAST SECURITY FORECAST

L MJI remains a target for the LNA given the presence of unmanned aerial Accusations of foreign interference from both the LNA and GNA continue to undermine short to medium term prospects of a negotiated vehicles. (UAVs) within the Mitiga airbase. GNA forces will likely continue settlement.. However, against all odds, Sarraj’s political initiative does to store UAVs at MJI to be within close range of the frontlines and appear to have gained traction; not as a conclusive document but a support forces on the ground. West of Tripoli, Sabratah, Surman, and first draft to form the basis of future negotiations and be modified with Zawiya could see internal rifts between pro-LNA and pro-GNA factions, inputs from the eastern bloc. The House of Representatives (HoR) especially given mounting evidence that a negotiation effort is currently head, Aguila Saleh, presented five conditions to accept the recent being launched by the GNA to win back local support across the West. political initiative put forward by GNA’s PM, Fayez Al-Serraj. The Separately, the launch of a “second phase” in combat operations conditions included a formal decision to prevent the allocation of funds appears imminent with the latest LNA reinforcements sent to the Tripoli for Tripoli’s militias, to subject the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) to frontlines. The HoR’s announcement of a state of mobilization would representatives elected by the HoR and issue a statement renouncing corroborate the strong prospect of an escalation, representing a its current alliances with Tripoli’s “terrorist militias”, as well as legislative effort to support LNA forces on the ground. However, the recognising the role of the LNA and its efforts to combat terrorism and likelihood and timeline of escalation remains difficult to ascertain and extremism and subsequently cease all moves condemning the LNA’s multiple similar threats were made in the past by the LNA. Similarly, on military operations in the international arena. In addition, the remaining the GNA side, there could be further attempts to repel LNA units from condition included the release of all detainees held inside militia positions South of Tripoli; in line with recent comments made by GNA camps. While it appears highly unlikely these conditions will be met Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha. The LNA could therefore exploit GNA anytime soon, a push is expected by the eastern-bloc to draft an positioning and movements to launch coordinated offensives of its own. agenda and convert military gains into political interests at a later Meanwhile, in pro-GNA towns near Tarhunah such as Khoms and stage; the formation of a unity government will be the cornerstone of Msallata, arrests/kidnappings of Tarhunah locals are set to continue, such an endeavor. Internationally, despite reports over a potential enabling GNA groups to pressure for the release of their own forces and military effort to curb Turkey’s involvement, Cairo appears to be relatives held by the LNA. In the central district of Sirte, sources reported favouring the diplomatic route for now. Reports indicate President a heightened threat of attack by IS. Turning to the South, GNA- Abdelfattah Sisi held a phone conversation with US President Donald sanctioned armed Tebu groups will continue attempts to infiltrate towns Trump, where the Libyan file was discussed. under LNA control. LIBYANS AND THE ARAB STREET WHAT OTHER EXPERTS SAY

Turkish security analyst Metin Gurcan explores motives and interests Writing for The Arab Weekly, Amr Emam discusses the current standoff behind Ankara’s growing support to the GNA. He writes in Al-Monitor that and Turkey’s growing involvement in Libya from Cairo’s perspective. He Turkey has naval interests to maintain in the Mediterranean and that writes “Turkey’s open war against the Libyan National Army is giving rise support to the GNA is not exclusively driven by close alliances between to calls in Egypt for involvement to help the Libyan forces defeat Islamist Turkey’s Islamists and the GNA’s. He argues Libya is part of Ankara’s militias controlling parts of Libya, including Tripoli. The showdown broader Mediterranean plans “Turkey’s interest in Libya is more related to between Turkey and the Libyan National Army (LNA) has become more strategic balances in the power struggle going on in the eastern direct and pronounced following the June 30 arrest by the LNA of six Mediterranean. While it is true that Turkey is supporting pro-Islamist Turkish nationals. The LNA also shot down a Turkish drone over Mitiga groups in Libya, the Turkish actors involved in the conflict are not limited International Airport, near Tripoli. LNA spokesman Major-General Ahmed to the Islamist government in Ankara. They have connections with the al-Mesmari said the aircraft was en route to an attack on the airport and Turkish military, especially its navy, which is certainly more secular than LNA troops. Turkey vowed to retaliate. The LNA has complained that Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party. For Ankara, the worst-case Turkey provided Islamist militias with armoured trucks and unmanned scenario in the eastern Mediterranean is a possible agreement between aerial vehicles. Istanbul reportedly sent military commanders to train the Greek Cypriots and Greece on sharing of naval sovereignty areas. This militias and help them stop the LNA’s campaign to capture Tripoli. These could threaten Turkey’s and Turkish Cypriots’ rights and interests in naval are serious developments for Egypt, where political and military analysts sovereignty zones in the region, which is believed to be rich in terms of called on authorities to increase support to the LNA. “The Turkish hydrocarbon resources.” The author provides further analysis to support presence in Libya primarily aims at inflicting harm on Egypt’s national his points, arguing that “Thus, Turkey is trying to reach a deal with Libya security,” said retired Egyptian Army General Gamal Eddine Mazloum. about coastal sharing to curtail Greece’s naval sovereignty claims over the “This is why Egypt should not leave the Libyan army alone in this battle.” region. This could allow Ankara to increase its influence in the region to Emam further argues that “Libya is a national security issue for Egypt, counter the pressure stemming from the Greek Cypriot-Greece-Egypt- which is why it features highly in talks between Egyptian President Abdel Israel bloc and confine Egypt to the south.” Gurcan concludes by stating Fattah al-Sisi and world leaders, including during the recent G20 summit “All this shows that Ankara’s interest in the Libyan conflict is not based in Japan where Sisi met with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, simply on politics or ideology but also on geostrategic concerns. According Russian President Vladimir Putin and UN Secretary-General Antonio to Ankara’s strategic mindset, if Turkey loses in Libya, it will be tightly Guterres.” confined to a limited area in the eastern Mediterranean. Thus Turkey will likely increase its support to the Tripoli government and its forces in the coming days.”

Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 7 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved.

Whispering Bell July 9, 2019

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Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 8 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved.