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1. the Big Picture Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 1. The Big Picture Turkey pledges more support for GNA; IS renews allegiance Turkey’s expanding involvement in support of the room to grow and consolidate. At the time of Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) publication, emerging reports indicate a continued to dominate this week’s developments, heightened threat of attack in the Sirte district. raising concerns over a potential response from The group’s resurgence in Libya has recently Cairo and wider regional intervention to assist the been echoed in statements by a senior US Libyan National Army’s (LNA) Khalifa Haftar. On the defence official. ground positions saw little to no change, though CONTENTS escalation came in the form of an airstrike targeting In the oil & gas sector, Haftar’s comments to Bloomberg reaffirming the LNA’s commitment to a migrant detention centre in Tripoli. The incident, for 1 which both GNA and LNA forces have traded international legally-binding contracts came in accusations, provoked international outcry. Amid the response to questions over eastern-based NOC THE BIG PICTURE showdown, the Islamic State (IS) made a attempts to market crude independently. The Turkey pledges more support reappearance in a propaganda video renewing its comments were welcomed by the Tripoli-based for GNA; IS renews allegiance pledge of allegiance to its self-declared leader Abu NOC, which it described as “commitment to the Bakr Al-Baghdadi. legitimacy of the NOC and its sole right to export 2 Libyan oil in accordance with Libyan law and NATIONWIDE SECURITY On 05 Jul, GNA PM Fayez Sarraj met with Turkish United Nations Security Council (UNSC) President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a visit to Turkey resolutions.” Events, Analysis and Data on 05 Jul. Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s support for the GNA and called on Haftar’s forces to cease However, tensions over the country’s resources 3 combat operations. Initial reports indicate Turkey will are far from over and it would be premature to SECURITY BY NUMBERS provide the GNA with at least eight additional equate Haftar’s comments with assurances that a Charts, Statistics and Analysis disruption to O&G production is unlikely in the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which if short to medium term. In fact, Haftar’s written confirmed, would be the latest weapons shipment 4 after multiple other documented military hardware answers to Bloomberg have emphasized the deliveries. Turkish involvement in Libya is set to importance of a fair distribution of O&G revenues. TRIPOLI REPORT increase because of geostrategic interests that Haftar has underlined the LNA’s security function News & Neighborhoods Ankara is seeking to secure in the Mediterranean. to protect O&G infrastructure, without ruling out Analysts argue that assistance to the GNA is only the possibility of a concerted political effort by the 5 part of a broader effort to curtail Greece’s influence eastern bloc to access oil revenues. Meanwhile, BENGHAZI REPORT Haftar denied the LNA seized NOC airports, in the Mediterranean and its claims over Libyan News & Neighborhoods territorial waters. Beyond ideological alignment though he stressed the “right” to use them if between pro-islamists in Tripoli and Turkey’s Justice deemed necessary given the state of general and Development Party (AKP), the Turkish Navy is mobilization. In a direct warning to the NOC, 6 reportedly seeking to demarcate territorial borders to Haftar also called on the NOC not to utilise its WHAT’S NEXT maximize its leverage in regional negotiations over resources to support terrorists and armed militias Forward Looking Expert offshore hydrocarbon resources. In addition, Ankara and to “avoid working against the army”. Seen Opinions is set on reviving pending construction contracts and from this angle, Haftar’s comments fall short of other economic interests worth an estimated $18 providing concrete guarantees, though they have billion. helped boost confidence in the country’s O&G sector. Libya’s current production hovers around Meanwhile, as Turkish involvement widened in the 1 million barrels per day (bpd) mark. Platts’ scope, the Islamic State (IS) reaffirmed its presence latest survey estimates Libya pumped 1.08 this week in a propaganda video released on 06 Jul. million bpd in Jun, representing a 40 kbpd loss The video shows approximately 68 militants from the previous month. renewing their pledge of allegiance “Baya”, including the speaker identified as “Abu Musab Al-Libi”, in KEY POINTS addition to a dozen vehicles in an unidentified desert • GNA PM visits Turkish President area. Yet beyond the theatrics, the video • IS reemerges in new allegiance video corroborates assessments the group’s capabilities have been crippled. However, with combat ops in • Haftar denies LNA role in bypassing NOC Tripoli now taking centre stage, IS will have plenty of Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 2. National Security Map LNA downs GNA L-39 Albatros aircraft; GNA detains two Russians suspected of election interference Key LNA spox. Ahmed Al-Mesmari stated a GNA L-39 Albatros aircraft THREAT INDICATORS was shot down near Tarhunah at Severe Threat approximately 1930hrs on 04 Jul. The GNA confirmed losing contact with an L-39 aircraft on a combat High Threat mission South of Tripoli. Initial reports indicate the aircraft took off Moderate Threat from Misrata International Airport (MRA). Two Libyan pilots were Shahat Security Directorate killed. announced a suicide bombing attempt was foiled on 08 Mar. A Reports indicate an LNA airstrike EVENT INDICATORS 13 year-old Egyptian national was targeted a military convoy reportedly arrested carrying an travelling Southwest of Brak in the IED | VBIED improvised explosive device evening on 04 Jul, with no further (IED), which he planned to information on the intended target. Violent Clash detonate in a busy market, in the Separately, an LNA airstrike city’s Souq Al Jum'aa area. No targeted fuel smugglers near further information available. Mizdah in the evening on 04 Jul. Isolated Gunfire Unconfirmed reports suggest Other unidentified assailants kidnapped On 05 Jul, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated it is a Lebanese doctor working for the verifying reports of the detention of two Russians Health Center Al Zyghn in Zyghn, in Tripoli accused of influencing upcoming Northeast of Sabha, on 02 Jul. elections in the country. Bloomberg reported Reports indicate the doctor was GNA law enforcement officers detained two kidnapped from his residence with Russians accused of attempting to influence no further information available. upcoming elections in Libya. Local officials Sources reported armed clashes allege the Russian individuals have established between locals and Tebu forces in contact with Gaddafi’s son, Saif Al-Islam. Murzuq in the morning on 06 Jul. Tebu forces led by Hassan Mousa Reports indicate GNA forces closed the road vowed to seize the town and between Misrata and Bani Waled in the morning extend GNA control over it. The on 03 Jul. Initial reports indicate GNA-affiliated clashes resulted in the death of a Misrata militias cut off vital supplies, including local man and the injury of two fuel and cooking gas cylinders. No further others. Conflicting reports suggest information. the clashes were due to a local Tunisian protestors temporarily closed the dispute between Tebu tribesmen. Coastal Road between Libya and Tunisia (Ra's Ajdir - Ben Gardane) at approximately 1730hrs At night on 06 Jul, reports indicate a pro-LNA battalion arrested on 04 Jul. Initial reports indicate security members on the Libyan side of the Ras Ajdir members of a pro-GNA sleeper border crossing arrested a Tunisian from Ben cell in Sabratah who were Gardane, resulting in the protest. The road was reportedly planning to launch an reopened at 2030hrs on 04 Jul. anti-LNA attack from within, similar to tactics used in the GNA’s Gharyan offensive on 26 Jun. Libya Weekly Political and Security Update Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. 2 Whispering Bell July 9, 2019 3. Nationwide Security Analysis Surge in nationwide fatalities due to Tripoli migrant detention centre fatalities Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by type of attack (Past week) type of attack (Past week) 261 Airstrike Arrest Violent Clash Mortar/Rocket Violent Clash Explosion Fire Isolated Gunfire Subscribe to Read More… Carjacking Robbery Assassination Isolated Gunfire Attack Suicide Assassination Raid Suicide 122 Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by national district (Past week) national district (Past week) Tripoli Tripoli Al-Jabal Al- Gharbi Benghazi Al-Murgub (Al- Al-Murgub (Al- Khums) Khums) Al-Wahat Subscribe to Read More… Subscribe to Read More… (Ajdabiya) Al-Jfara Al-Wahat Az-Zawiyah (Ajdabiya) Misratah Sabha Az-Zawiyah Wadi Al-Shatii Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 3 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited.
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