A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs
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NASA/CR--1998-208859 A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs O.E. Smith and S.I. Adelfang Computer Sciences Corporation, Huntsville, Alabama Prepared for Marshall Space Flight Center under Contract NAS8-60000 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center • MSFC, Alabama 35812 October 1998 Acknowledgments Gratitude is extended to Mr. Steven D. Pearson, Chief, Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environ- ments Branch (EL23), Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (EL01) and Mr. Alexander A. McCool, Manager, Space Shuttle Projects Office (SA01) who sponsored this report. It was perceived that documentation of wind statistics and wind models development from past to present aerospace programs would benefit not only for the continued life of Space Shuttle but also future NASA space vehicle programs. With this technical challenge, Dr. C.G. Justus, Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC PRISMS Contract NASS--60000) team leader for natural environment support, assigned this task to the authors who, in turn, appreciate his interest and encouragement in the preparation of this report. Thanks are extended to our colleague, Dr. R.E. Smith (CSC), for his critical discussions that helped clarify the presentation of this work. Also, thanks to Ms. Belinda Hardin, Member of Technical Staff (Associate) (CSC), for preparing the manuscript and to Ms. Margaret Alexander (EL23) for editing the draft. The authors wish to acknowledge the close association and participation over the years with the various NASA Space Shuttle working groups. This includes all past and current chairpersons and team members of the following: (1) Ascent Flight Systems Integration Group (AFSIG) (2) Performance Panel (3) Loads Panel (4) Launch Support Evaluation and Advisory Team (LSEAT). The MSFC Meteorological Coordinator for the Space Shuttle program, Mr. Dale Johnson/EL23, is recognized for his review comments. Available from: NASA Center for AeroSpace Information National Technical Information Service 800 Elkridge Landing Road 5285 Port Royal Road Linthicum Heights, MD 21090--2934 Springfield, VA 22161 (301) 621-0390 (703) 487-4650 ii FOREWORD This report presents work performed under Contract NAS8-60000, Program Information Systems Mission Services (PRISMS), Computer Sciences Corporation. This work was sponsored by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch, Systems Engineering Division, Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Mr. Steven Pearson, Chief of the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch, reviewed with the authors the scope of work and encouraged the preparation of this technical report. Questions or comments on this report should be direct to the authors: O. E. Smith S. I. Adelfang Phone: (256) 544-9500 Phone: (256) 544-9142 Fax: (256) 544-8807 Fax: (256) 544-8807 E-maih o.e.smith @ msfc.nasa.gov E-maih stan.adelfang @ msfc.nasa.gov iii 111I 1 A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA _- Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 2.0 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................... 4 2.1 WIND DATA SAMPLE SIZE .......................... ............................................................. 4 2.2 WIND PERSISTENCE .................................................................................................. 5 2.3 TESTS FOR BIVARIATE NORMALITY IN WIND DATA SAMPLES .................................. 7 2.4 BIVARIATE NORMAL TESTS APPLIED TO WIND SAMPLES ....................................... 12 2.5 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 19 3.0 ASCENT WIND MODELS (0 TO 27 KM)., .......................................................... 22 3.1 APPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................ 22 3.2 MODELS BASED ON CONDmONAL WIND SHEAR ................................................... 23 3.2.1 Scalar Wind Profile Model (SWP) ............................................................ 23 3.2.2 Wind Component Wind Profile Model ...................................................... 28 3.2.3 Monthly Vector Wind Profile (VWP) Model Original Version for the Space Shun& .................................................................................. 28 3.2,4 Monthly Enveloping Scalar Wind Profile (MESWP) Model ..................... 33 3.2.4.1 Monthly Enveloping Ellipses ................................................................ 34 3.2.4.2 Conditional Extreme Value Wind Speed Shear, Given the Wind Speed .......................................................................... 36 3.3 AN IMPROVED VECTOR WIND PROFILE MODEL (IVWP) BASED ON CONDITIONAL WIND VECTORS ............................................................................... 38 3.3.1 Theoretical Concepts ................................................................................. 38 3.3.2 Wind Profile Construction ........................................................................ 38 3.3.3 Equations ................................................................................................... 39 3.3.4 Application of the Vector Wind Profile Model .......................................... 43 3.4 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................ 43 3.5 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 44 4.0 ASCENT STRUCTURAL LOADS ANALYSIS .................................................... 46 4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 46 4.2 PROCEDURES AND DEFINITIONS ............................................................................. 46 4.3 WIND BIASED TRAJECTORIES ................................................................................. 47 4.4 LOADS DATA DEFINITIONS ..................................................................................... 47 4.5 EXTREME VALUE PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS ........................................................... 49 4.5.1 Univariate Distribution ............................................................................... 49 4.5.2 Bivariate Distribution ........................................................................... do 4.5.2.1 Probability Within Contours ......................................................... V TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 4.5.3 Logistic Distribution .................................................................................... 53 4,.5.4 Conditional Distribution ............................................................................. 53 4.6 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 54 4.6.1 Load Minimum Margin (LMM) .................................................................. 54 4.6.2 Wind Loads Persistence Increment for LMM ............................................. 57 4.6.3 Go and No-Go Combinations ..................................................................... 59 4.6.4 Peak Loads Analysis ................................................................................... 67 4.7 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 70 4.8 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 70 5.0 WIND LOADS UNCERTAINTY ATTRIBUTABLE TO WIND PROFILE SMOOTHING AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ................................................. 71 5.1 LNTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 71 5.2 STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 73 5.3 ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................... 74 5.3.1 Wind Load Increments (WLPI and RWLPI) ................................................ 74 5.3.2 Load Indicator WINGRA 14(-) No-Go's ...................................................... 76 5.3.3 No-Go Statistics, 1st of Pair ....................................................................... 77 5.3.4 Joint GoNo-Go Statistics, 1st and 2nd of Wind Pairs ............................... 78 5.4 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 79 5.5 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 79 6.0 GUST MODELS FOR LAUNCH VEHICLE ASCENT ....................................... 80 6.1 L'qTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 80 6.2 DISCRETE GUSTMODEL ......................................................................................... 80 6.3 ORIGIN OF THE CLASSICAL NASA 9 M/s GUST ...................................................... 81 6.4 DISCRETE GUST MAGNITUDE AS A FL_'CTION OF GUST HALF-WIDTH .................... 83 6.5 CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................