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NED Report—Sharp Power: Rising Authoritarian Influence

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SHARP POWER Rising Authoritarian Influence About the Forum The International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is a leading center for analysis and discussion of the theory and practice of democracy around the world. The Forum complements NED’s core mission—assisting civil society groups abroad in their efforts to foster and strengthen democracy—by linking the academic community with activists from across the globe. Through its multifaceted activities, the Forum responds to challenges facing countries around the world by analyzing opportunities for democratic transi- tion, reform, and consolidation. The Forum pursues its goals through several interrelated initia- tives: publishing the Journal of Democracy, the world’s leading publication on the theory and practice of democracy; hosting fellowship programs for international democracy activists, jour- nalists, and scholars; coordinating a global network of think tanks; and undertaking a diverse range of analytical initiatives to explore critical themes relating to democratic development. About the National Endowment for Democracy The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is a private, nonprofit foundation dedicated to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world. Each year, NED makes more than 1,700 grants to support the projects of non-governmental groups abroad who are working for democratic goals in more than 90 countries. Since its founding in 1983, the Endowment has remained on the leading edge of democratic struggles everywhere, while evolv- ing into a multifaceted institution that is a hub of activity, resources, and intellectual exchange for activists, practitioners, and scholars of democracy the world over. About the Network of Democracy Research Institutes (NDRI) The Network of Democracy Research Institutes (NDRI) is a global network of think tanks that conduct research and analysis on democracy, democratization, and related topics in compara- tive government and international affairs. The NDRI is coordinated by the NED’s International Forum for Democratic Studies and is a key network of the World Movement for Democracy. A unique global network, its mission is to foster interaction among international think tanks that may not otherwise come into contact with one another, and to connect them with other democ- racy scholars and activists. The collaborative space created by the NDRI allows think tanks from diverse parts of the world to initiate joint projects. The NDRI also encourages member institutes to reach out in solidarity to one another and to share knowledge and experiences. 2 NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY | INTERNATIONAL FORUM FOR DEMOCRATIC STUDIES Acknowledgments The International Forum for Democratic Studies is grateful to the Network of Democracy Research Institute members that participated in the production of this report—the Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL, Argentina), the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA, Poland) and the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO, Slovakia). This project would not have been possible without the hard work and dedication of the think tanks’ lead researchers and country report authors—Juan Pablo Cardenal (CADAL), Jacek Kucharczyk (IPA), Grigorij Mesežnikov (IVO), and Gabriela Pleschová (IVO). CADAL executive director Gabriel Salvia also played a critical role in facilitating research in the Latin American case countries. Special thanks are also owed to Ludmila Flavia González Cerulli and Carmen Grau Vila for providing CADAL’s lead researcher with on-the-ground research assistance and support in Argentina and Peru, respectively. The International Forum would also like to thank the many other experts who participated in roundtable meetings held at the National Endowment for Democracy in May 2016 and January 2017 to discuss the issues that were the focus of this report. Included among them were a number of Russia and China country experts, Latin American and European regional experts, as well as many staff members at the NED. Their insights, perspectives, and suggestions ultimately helped sharpen the final analysis and findings in this report. Thanks are also owed to the International Forum staff who contributed to this report’s publication. Christopher Walker, NED Vice President for Studies and Analysis, provided overall guidance for the initiative. Forum research and conferences officer Jessica Ludwig played a pivotal role providing overall coordination of the think tanks’ research efforts, as well as crucial editorial feedback. Forum director Shanthi Kalathil also provided substantive insights and valuable feedback during the report’s production. In addi- tion, the hard work and support provided by Melissa Aten, Dean Jackson, Andrea Blazanovic, and Rachelle Faust were essen- tial to organizing the roundtable meetings and bringing this report to completion. Special thanks are also given to Journal of Democracy assistant editor Rachel Bercovitz for her keen eye in proofreading sections of the report. The International Forum would also like to acknowl- edge Tyler Roylance, Shannon O’Toole, and Andrew Mosher for their editorial support for the papers featured in this report. 3 NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY | INTERNATIONAL FORUM FOR DEMOCRATIC STUDIES About the Authors Juan Pablo Cardenal is a researcher of the Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America’s Advisory Council and is a journalist, writer, and researcher. Over the last eight years, he has conducted on-the-ground research in over 40 countries on the topic of China’s global reach, including more than 1,300 interviews. He has co-authored three books which have been published in eleven languages: La Imparable Conquista China (China’s Unstoppable Conquest, 2015), El Imperio Invisible: El Exito Empresarial Chino y Sus Vinculos Con la Criminalidad de Espana y Europa (Invisible Empire: The Success of Chinese Businesses and Their Ties to Crime in Spain and Europe, 2013) and La Silenciosa Conquista China (China’s Silent Army, 2011). He is also the author of a chapter about China in the book, Democracy under Threat (2017). He was the China correspondent for the Spanish dailies El Mundo and El Economista for a decade and is now a contributor to several international media outlets. He has also been a speaker and panelist at numerous international institutions and forums. He holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism and an executive masters in International Relations from the Geneva School of Diplomacy. Jacek Kucharczyk is president of the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), a leading Polish think tank and an independent center for policy research and analysis. Mr. Kucharczyk has been a co-founder and board member of a number of international NGOs, including the Prague Civil Society Centre, the Policy Association for an Open Society (PASOS), and the European Partnership for Democracy (EPD) in Brussels. He is also a former member of the Think Tank Fund and Scholarship Program Advisory Boards at Open Society Foundations, as well as a for- mer board member of the National School of Public Administration in Warsaw. He has authored and edited articles, reports, policy briefs and books on European integration, democratic gover- nance, democracy assistance, and populism. He frequently comments on current domestic and European affairs and political developments for Polish and international media. Grigorij Mesežnikov is a political scientist and president of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO), a Bratislava-based think tank he helped found in 1997. He has published expert studies on party systems’ development and political aspects of transformation in post-communist societies in various monographs, collections, and scholarly journals in Slovakia and other countries. He regularly contributes analyses of Slovakia’s political scene to domestic and foreign media. He has co-edited and co-authored a number of books, including the Global Reports on Slovakia (1995–2011), the annually published comprehensive analysis of the country’s development. He was a key author of the report on Slovakia in Nations in Transit published by Freedom House (1998–2014). He served as a Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow at the NED in 2006. Gabriela Pleschová works at the Institute of International Relations, University of Economics in Bratislava. Her research interests include relations between China and the European Union, Central European policy towards China, and migration issues relating to China. Her publications have appeared in journals, including Europe-Asia Studies and Problems of Post-Communism. She is a contributor to reports published by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) on the topic of contemporary affairs between China and Europe. 4 NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY | INTERNATIONAL FORUM FOR DEMOCRATIC STUDIES DECEMBER 2O17 Table of Contents Executive Summary 6 Introduction From ‘Soft Power’ to ‘Sharp Power’: Rising Authoritarian Influence in the Democratic World by CHRISTOPHER WALKER and JESSICA LUDWIG 8 Chapter 1 China in Latin America: Understanding the Inventory of Influence by JUAN PABLO CARDENAL 26 Chapter 2 Navigating Political Change in Argentina by JUAN PABLO CARDENAL 37 Chapter 3 Reframing Relations in Peru by JUAN PABLO CARDENAL 67 Chapter 4 Exploiting Political Polarization in Poland by JACEK KUCHARCZYK 94 Chapter 5 Testing Democratic Resolve in Slovakia by GRIGORIJ Mesežnikov and GABRIELA PLESCHOVÁ 124 5 NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY | INTERNATIONAL FORUM FOR DEMOCRATIC
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