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May 2015 The Bulletin Vol. 6 Ed.5 Official monetary and financial institutions ● Asset management ● Global money and credit Europe’s pivotal players Negotiating multiple fronts Antonio Armellini on Modi’s first year Lorenzo Codogno on Renzi’s key task Bronwyn Curtis & William Baunton on Asia Meghnad Desai on secular stagnation Gerard Lyons on bringing AIIB to London Global Louis de Montpellier [email protected] +44 20 3395 6189 ConneCt Into aPaC Hon Cheung [email protected] +65 6826 7505 amerICas Carl Riedy the network [email protected] +1 202 429 8427 Connect into State Street Global Advisors’ network of expertise, tailored training and investment excellence. emea Benefit from our Official Institutions Group’s decades-deep experience. Our service Kristina Sowah [email protected] is honed to the specific needs of sovereign clients such as central banks, sovereign +44 20 3395 6842 wealth funds, government agencies and supranational institutions. From Passive to Active, Alternatives to the latest Advanced Beta strategies, the Official Institutions Group can provide the customised client solutions you need. To learn more about how we can help you, please visit our website ssga.com/oig or contact your local representative. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY, Not for Use with the Public. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. State Street Global Advisors is the investment management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), one of the world’s leading providers of financial services to institutional investors. © 2015 State Street Corporation – All rights reserved. INST-5417. Exp. 31.03.2016. EUMKT-3892_Connect Into The Network Ad.indd 1 25/03/2015 10:41 Contents Europe’s pivotal players UK election Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has emerged even Powerful role for Merkel David Marsh 8 more powerfully as Europe’s UK electorate opts for growth Antonio Armellini 9 pivot after the UK election. She must negotiate multiple Piercing ‘spiral of silence’ Thomas Kielinger 10 fronts. She will play a key role in efforts by David Cameron, the Rethinking ‘unlosable’ referendum Denis MacShane 11 British prime minister, to win concessions from Europe before the UK vote on EU membership. And Merkel stands at the centre International monetary policy of a bitter stand-off between debtors and creditors over Prepare for secular stagnation Meghnad Desai 12 Greece, which could still result Fed likely to delay lift-off Darrell Delamaide 13 in a major upset for the euro. Reaching for the unthinkable Ryan Shea and Pasquale Urselli 14 Why IMF must reform the SDR Ousmène Mandeng 15 Global Europe and the euro Louis de Montpellier [email protected] Puzzling logic on euro money Moorad Choudhry 16 +44 20 3395 6189 Implementation is key task for Renzi Lorenzo Codogno 17 ConneCt Into aPaC Portugal must rebalance economy Francesco Franco 19 Hon Cheung ECB quantitative easing Francesco Papadia 19 [email protected] +65 6826 7505 amerICas Emerging markets Carl Riedy the network [email protected] Book review +1 202 429 8427 IMF returns to fray in Argentina David Smith 5 Connect into State Street Global Advisors’ network of William Keegan evaluates Meghnad Desai’s Hubris, an ambitious analysis Asean shaping up for ‘double hit’ William Baunton and Bronwyn Curtis 22 expertise, tailored training and investment excellence. emea of how the 2008 financial crisis went Why AIIB should choose London base Gerard Lyons 25 Benefit from our Official Institutions Group’s decades-deep experience. Our service Kristina Sowah unanticipated by most economists. [email protected] is honed to the specific needs of sovereign clients such as central banks, sovereign In forgetting their history, according Renminbi expansion a stabilising influence Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva 26 +44 20 3395 6842 to Desai, the economics profession wealth funds, government agencies and supranational institutions. Africa’s financial services revolution Michael Lafferty 27 and its disciples in public life forgot From Passive to Active, Alternatives to the latest Advanced Beta strategies, the business cycles, long and short, as Modi embarks on growth path Antonio Armellini 28 Official Institutions Group can provide the customised client solutions you need. well as the previous occurrence of banking crises and financial Kickback cloud over real Jamie Bulgin 29 To learn more about how we can help you, please visit our website crashes. The book ranges over ssga.com/oig or contact your local representative. Sovereign notes Pooma Kimis 29 several centuries of capitalism, communism and economic history, Review before warning the reader to FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY, Not for Use Expect more crises William Keegan 30 with the Public. Investing involves risk including watch out for the risk of loss of principal. State Street Global Advisors is the investment management business further crashes Building momentum for adding renminbi OMFIF Advisory Board Poll 31 of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), one of and crises. the world’s leading providers of financial services to institutional investors. © 2015 State Street Corporation – All rights reserved. INST-5417. Exp. 31.03.2016. Vol. 6 Ed. 5 May 2015 3 EUMKT-3892_Connect Into The Network Ad.indd 1 25/03/2015 10:41 Official Monetary and Financial Submissions Institutions Forum OMFIF Contact the editorial team for 30 Crown Place Promoting dialogue for world finance details on article submissions at London EC2A 4EB [email protected]. United Kingdom The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) is an independent research and T: +44 (0)20 3008 5262 advisory group and a platform for exchanges of Advertising & subscriptions F: +44 (0)20 7965 4489 views between official institutions and private sector Contact: [email protected]. www.omfif.org counterparties. Our overriding aim is to enable the private and Letters public sector to learn from each other in different Board ways, promoting better understanding of the world Letters provide opinions from John Plender (Chairman), Jai Arya, Jean-Claude economy and higher across-the-board standards. our readers with points of view Bastos de Morais, Pooma Kimis, Edward Longhurst- on the subject matter in our Pierce, David Marsh, John Nugée, Pete Wilkin OMFIF’s main areas of focus are economic and Bulletins and Commentaries. monetary policy, asset management and financial supervision and regulation. OMFIF co-operates Diary dates Advisory Board with central banks, sovereign funds, regulators, debt managers and other public and private sector OMFIF Meetings take place within Meghnad Desai, Chairman institutions around the world. Phil Middleton, Deputy Chairman central banks and other official Frank Scheidig, Deputy Chairman institutions. The frank and confidential Paola Subacchi, Deputy Chairman nature of meetings provides for a deep- Songzuo Xiang, Deputy Chairman Advisory Board seated exchange of views and best Bronwyn Curtis, Chief Economic Adviser practice. Aslihan Gedik, Senior Adviser Norman Lamont, Senior Adviser OMFIF’s 177-strong Advisory A full list of past and forthcoming John Nugée, Senior Adviser & Director Board, chaired by Meghnad Fabrizio Saccomanni, Senior Adviser meetings is available on Ted Truman, Senior Adviser Desai, provides contributions www.omfif.org/meetings to the monthly Bulletin, regular Commentaries, seminars and Management other OMFIF activities. General information David Marsh, Managing Director Edward Longhurst-Pierce, Director of Strategy and See www.omfif.org for member Planning access to more OMFIF analysis, Director of Markets and Institutions Pooma Kimis, The Bulletin including Briefings, reports, Oliver Lowe, Head of Meetings and Operations Sunita Vaswani, Head of Finance and Administration The OMFIF Monthly Bulletin features in-depth summaries of discussions and news and commentary on key developments in bulletin archives. the financial industry and global capital markets – including changes in governance, banking structures For queries on the website, contact Editorial Team and regulation. the editorial team at: [email protected] William Baunton, Economist The Bulletin reaches a wide audience of readers around Darrell Delamaide, US Editor Sophie Lewisohn, Editorial Manager the globe including public financial institutions, Sacha Moreira, Publishing Manager private asset management companies and professional Amit Parmar, Marketing Manager services firms. Subscription For subscription details, contact the sales team at: [email protected] T: +44 (0)20 3008 5262 Strictly no photocopying is permitted. It is illegal to reproduce, store in a central retrieval system or transmit, electronically or otherwise, any of the content of this publication without the prior consent of the publisher. While every care is taken to provide accurate information, the publisher cannot accept liability for any errors or omissions. No responsibility will be accepted for any loss occurred by any individual due to acting or not acting as a result of any content in this publication. On any specific matter reference should be made to an appropriate adviser. Company Number: 7032533 4 www.omfif.org EDITORIAL Merkel pivotal figure on UK and Greece ust at the time when the possibility of a major Greek upheaval in the euro area has grown into a real threat, a referendum on whether the UK Jmay leave the European Union has drawn closer following Prime Minister David Cameron’s election victory on 7 May. In both cases Angela Merkel, the German chancellor,
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