September 19, 2017 Education Invest for a bright future HINA C ■ We assume coverage on the China education sector with an Overweight rating. K-12 after-school tutoring is our preferred segment and New Oriental Education (EDU) is our top pick. Our order of preference is: 1) K-12 after-school tutoring providers, EDU and TAL Education (TAL), 2) K-12 private school players, China Yuhua and China Maple Leaf, and 3) vocational training provider, Tarena. ■ We forecast the K-12 after-school tutoring market to post a 4-year revenue CAGR of 12.7% yoy to Rmb1.29tr by 2020F. This market is still quite fragmented as the market shares of the no.1 and no.2 players, TAL and EDU, were only 0.8% and 0.7% in 2016, respectively. We expect leading players to benefit from the recent ‘Gaokao’ reform and further consolidate the market. ■ We view the amendment to the Law for Promoting Private Education that came into AVIGATING AVIGATING effect on 1 Sep 2017 as beneficial to private education providers, including Yuhua and China Maple Leaf. ■ We use DCF as our key valuation methodology given education players’ relatively N stable and predictable cash flows. Analyst(s) Lei YANG, CFA T (86) 21 5047 1771 x108 E
[email protected] ONG Khang Chuen T (852) 2539 1326 E
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