OSW Commentary
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Compendium on Cyber Security of Election
Protecting the Digital Infrastructure of Democracy Liisa Past [email protected] “There’s been a lot of claims that our election system is unhackable. That's BS. Only a fool or liar would try to claim that their database or machine was unhackable.” Jake Braun, DefCon hacker voting village POOR SET-UP TO TACKLE CYBER THREATS • Terminological ambiguity • Digital governance is a national matter • Diverse systems, organizational set-ups • Lack of operational cooperation • Civil servants not cyber security experts HOWEVER • Most elections rely on some technology • Attack vectors and adversary often similar • Technology-related threats undermine democracy GEORGIA (2008, 2019) UKRAIN E (2014) Actual result Name Res Rank ult % Dmytro Yarosh 00.7 11 Petro Poroshenko 54.7 1 Yulia Tymoshenko 12.8 2 Serhiy Tihipko 05.2 5 Oleh Lyashko 08.3 3 Vadim Rabinovich 02.6 7 Image: https://www.stopfake.org/en/russian-first-channel-informed-of-yarosh-victory-in-ukraine-s-presidential-elections/ Screen grab: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/zmakk3/researchers-find-critical-backdoor-in-swiss-online-voting-system Image Flickr CC, https://www.flickr.com/photos/147597828@N03/34208529880/in/photolist-24SJJLe-2c9YEhm-22jgpYM-Ui7UB5-Tinopk-U7TE8j-SYpxFh-Uve1UW Graphic: The Hacker News PARTIES AND CANDIDATES (2016/17) LATVIA (2018) Screen grab: https://eng.lsm.lv/ Voting Election technology Attacks on auxiliary systems, facilitators and vendors Integrated information operations Compendium on Cyber Security of Election Technology (2018) • Under the Cooperation -
Conference on Corruption and Anti-Corruption Policies
Conference on corruption and anti-corruption policies Hyatt Regency Hotel Kyiv, Ally Tarasovoi St, 5, Kyiv July 4-5, 2019 Organisers: Dragon Capital European Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Economic Association International Renaissance Foundation Kyiv School of Economics Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics Scope: The conference will bring together academics and policymakers working on corruption and anti- corruption policies to discuss recent research on corruption and anti-corruption policies around the world, anti-corruption experience in advanced economies and emerging markets and implications from research and practical experience for fighting corruption in post-communist countries. The conference will include both academic and policy sessions and will be open to general public. Preliminary Agenda Thursday, July 4th 08:30 – 09:00 Registration and welcome coffee 09:00 – 09:10 Welcome remarks by Tymofiy Mylovanov, Honorary President, Kyiv School of Economics and Sergei Guriev, Chief Economist, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 09:10 – 11:10 Research session 1: Tax havens and tax evasion Gabriel Zucman, University of California at Berkeley “Who owns the wealth in tax havens?” Ruben Enikolopov, Pompeu Fabra University, New Economic School “Tax evasion of politically connected firms: Labor mobility channel” Ofir Reich, University of California at Berkeley “Who is Bogus? Using One-Sided Labels to Identify Fraudulent Firms from Tax Returns” 11:10 – 11:40 Coffee-break 11:40 – 13:00 Research session 2: Corruption in China Daniel Berkowitz, University of Pittsburgh “What Makes Local Governments More Accountable? Lessons from a Website Reform” Maria Perrotta Berlin, Stockholm School of Economics “Leniency, tigers and flies. -
Mr. Yuriy Lutsenko, Chairperson, Bloc Poroshenko Mr. Oleh Lyashko, Chairperson, Oleh Lyashko's Radical Party Mr. Igor Zdanov
Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine, 26 October 2014 DRAFT - PROGRAMME OF JOINT PARLIAMENTARY BRIEFINGS Fairmont Hotel, Kyiv, 24-25 October 2014 Friday, 24 October 10:00-10:15 Opening by the Heads of Parliamentary Delegations 10:15-10:45 Introduction by local offices Ambassador Vaidotas Verba, OSCE Project Co-ordinator in Ukraine Ambassador Vladimir Ristovski, Head of Office, Council of Europe Office in Ukraine Ambassador Jan Tombiński, Head Delegation, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine Mr. Marcin Koziel, Head of Office, NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine 10:45-12:15 Briefing by the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission 12:15-13:45 Lunch break 13:45-14:30 Mr. Mykhaylo Okhendovsky, Chairperson, Central Election Commission of Ukraine 14:30-17:30 Meetings with political party representatives 14:30-14:50 Mr. Yuriy Lutsenko, Chairperson, Bloc Poroshenko 14:50-15:10 Mr. Oleh Lyashko, Chairperson, Oleh Lyashko’s Radical Party 15:10-15:30 Mr. Igor Zdanov, President of Analytical Center “Open Politics”, Batkivshchyna Mr. Serhiy Vlasenko, Member of Parliament, Batkivshchyna Mr. Borys Tarasyuk, Member of Parliament, Batkivshchyna 15:30-15:50 Mr. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairperson, People’s Front 15:50-16:10 Coffee Break 16:10-16:30 Mr. Petro Symonenko, Chairperson, Communist Party of Ukraine 16:30-16:50 Mr. Serhiy Tihipko, Chairperson, Strong Ukraine 16:50-17:10 Mr. Oleh Tyahnybok, Chairperson, Svoboda 17:10-17:30 Coffee Break 17:30-18:15 Panel with representatives of mass media Mr. Zurab Alasania, Director-General, National TV Company Mr. Mustafa Nayem, Editor-in;Chief, Hromadske TV Ms. Olga Herasymyuk, First Deputy Chairman, National Television and Radio Broadcasting Council Mr. -
Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine
Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine September 14 – October 10, 2017 Methodology National Sample • The survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas) from September 14 to October 10, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. An additional 4,800 respondents were also surveyed in the cities of Dnipro, Khmelnytskyi, Mariupol and Mykolaiv (i.e. 1,200 respondents in each city). A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas. • Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • Cities with a population of more than 1 million • Cities with a population of between 500,000-999,000 • Cities with a population of between 100,000-499,000 • Cities with a population of between 50,000-99,000 • Cities with a population up to 50,000 • Villages Cities and villages were selected at random. The number of selected cities/villages in each of the regions is proportional to the share of population living in cities/villages of a certain type in each region. -
Energy Politics of Ukraine: Domestic and International Dimensions
ENERGY POLITICS OF UKRAINE: DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ANASTASIYA STELMAKH IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS MAY 2016 i ii Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Meliha B. Altunışık (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Fırat Purtaş (GAZI U., IR) Assist. Prof. Dr. Yuliya Biletska (KARABÜK U., IR) iii I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Anastasiya Stelmakh Signature : iii ABSTRACT ENERGY POLITICS OF UKRAINE: DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS Stelmakh, Anastasiya Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever May 2016, 349 pages This PhD thesis aims to analyze domestic and international dimensions of Ukraine’s energy politics. -
Ukraine's Other
28 2015 Efrem Lukatsky/AP/SIPA Lukatsky/AP/SIPA Efrem Ukraine’s other war by Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu Ukraine is fighting two wars simultaneously. The should continue to be directed towards those who most obvious is the hybrid conflict in the east, have remained in the separatist-controlled areas. fuelled and sustained by Russia. But while the ‘hot This opinion seems to also be widely shared by the phase’ in this arena is over, at least for now, Ukraine country’s political elites. In other words, large sec- is also engaged in a war against itself. It is locked tions of Ukraine’s body politic are increasingly ac- in a struggle against its own dysfunctionality and ceptant of a post-Donbas reality. endemic levels of corruption which will affect mil- lions, from low-level policemen and fire inspec- The war in the east has been contained through the tors to oligarchs and leading politicians. And while tortuous Minsk process, a flurry of Western diplo- Ukraine can cope with the existence of an almost macy, and the non-collapse of Kiev’s military. Now, frozen conflict in the Donbas, there is no possibility it is Ukraine’s internal conflict which has the most of accepting the status quo with regard to the latter serious implications for both the country’s future war. and the region’s stability. There is currently a lull in the violence in the Donbas: Reform tide: slowly but surely it is relatively contained, and fears of a larger-scale conflict have significantly decreased since last year. -
Oligarchs After the Maidan: the Old System in a 'New' Ukraine
Centre for Eastern Studies NUMBER 162 | 16.02.2015 www.osw.waw.pl Oligarchs After The Maidan: The Old System In A ‘New’ Ukraine Wojciech Konończuk There have been major changes in the balance of forces among the key Ukrainian oligarchs, rep- resentatives of big business with strong political influence, since the victory of the Maidan revo- lution. However, these changes have not undermined the oligarchic system per se. Over the past decade or so, the oligarchs have been key players in Ukrainian politics and economy, and they have retained this position until the present. One of the effects of the change of the government in Kyiv and the war in the Donbas was the elimination of the influence of ‘the family’ – the people from Viktor Yanukovych’s inner circle who formed the most expansive oligarchic group in Ukraine at the time of his presidency. The influence of Rinat Akhmetov, the country’s wealthiest man, has also weakened significantly; Akhmetov was one of the most influential people in Ukraine for more than ten years, partly owing to his close bonds with Yanukovych. Dmytro Firtash’s group has also lost a great deal of its influence since Firtash was arrested in Austria in March 2014. The elimination (‘the family’) or the reduction in influence (Akhmetov and Firtash) of what were until recently the most powerful oligarchic groups has been accompanied over the past few months by an unprecedented increase in the influence of Ihor Kolomoyskyi. The present governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast has become Ukraine’s most powerful oligarch, and has am- bitions to expand his influence. -
Ukraine's Party System Evolution: 1990-2017
RAZUMKOV CENTRE UKRAINE’S PARTY SYSTEM EVOLUTION: 1990-2017 The publication is supported by the Ukrainian Office of Konrad Adenauer Foundation 2017 UKRAINE`S PARTY SYSTEM EVOLUTION: 1990-2017 / Edited by Yu.Yakymenko. – Kyiv: Razumkov Сentre, 2017. – p.62 This publication presents an abridged version of the Analytical Report by the Razumkov Centre that examines the emergence and further transformation of Ukraine’s party system in 1990-2017. We have examined key drivers of change at each evolution stage, such as legislation on political parties and elections; political regime; most significant societal cleavages, nature and consequences of their influence; analysed current trends in Ukraine’s party system development. The publication will be useful for everyone interested in post-independence nation-building processes in Ukraine, development of political parties and the party system, experience of political transformations in post-Soviet countries. © Razumkov Centre, 2017 © “Zapovit Publishing House”, 2017 UKRAINE’S PARTY SYSTEM EVOLUTION: 1990-2017 olitical parties are an important institution of a democratic society, P which ensures aggregation and articulation of the interests of various social groups. Interaction among parties in their struggle for power and the exercise of political power by them form a party system. The process of party system formation in Ukraine has been going on for more than 25 years. This publication represents a shortened version of the Razumkov Centre’s report, which examines the fundamental stages of the party system formation in 1990-2017, including intra-party processes, institutional legal and socio-political conditions for their activities and inter-party relations.1 1. STUDY METHODOLOGY The Razumkov Centre’s study uses an approach that combines elements of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the analysis of party system dynamics and takes into account changes of the three following components that define party system and/or affect it. -
The Future of Ukrainian Oligarchsdownload
Ukrainian Institute for the Future is an independent analytical center that: • forecasts changes and models possible scenarios for events in Ukraine; • makes a competent assessment of the Ukrainian events; • makes specific recommendations for actions; • offers effective solutions; • offers a platform for discussions on current topics. It is a project of representatives of Ukrainian business, politics and the public sector. Founded in summer 2016. AUTHORS Victor Andrusiv Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, PhD in Political Science, analyst and opinion journalist, author of the book “Change the future” Oleg Ustenko Executive Director of the Bleyzer Foundation, President of Harvard Club of Ukraine alumni association Yurii Romanenko Co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, head of the International and Domestic Policy programme, editor-in-chief of the portal Hvylya Ihar Tyshkevich Expert of International and Domestic Politics programme of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) © Art-direction D!VANDESIGN © Idea and design INCOGNITA INTRODUCTION. THE BRITISH DISEASE IN UKRAINE Content 05 THEORY AND STRUCTURE OF THE UKRAINIAN OLIGARCHY 06 INFLUENCE OVER ENERGY INDUSTRY 14 INFLUENCE OVER METALLURGY 26 INFLUENCE OVER TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 38 INFLUENCE OVER MEDIA 50 INFLUENCE OVER POLITICS 62 THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE OLIGARCHS 72 Victor Andrusiv Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, PhD in Political Science, analyst and opinion journalist, author of the book “Change the future” Introduction: the British disease in Ukraine After the fall of the Soviet Union, the starting conditions for economic development in Ukraine were advanta- geous. However, after 27 years of independence, we continue to be the most backward country of the post-Sovi- et bloc. -
Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine
Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine December 13-27, 2018 Methodology • The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from December 13- 27, 2018, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. The distribution of population by regions and settlements is based on statistical data of the Central Election Commission from the 2014 parliamentary elections, and the distribution of population by age and gender is based on data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine from January 1, 2018. • A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and “last birthday” methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. • Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • Cities with populations of more than 1 million • Cities with populations of between 500,000-999,000 • Cities with populations of between 100,000-499,000 • Cities with populations of between 50,000-99,000 • Cities with populations of up to 50,000 • Villages Cities and villages were selected by the PPS method (probability proportional to size). -
Ukraine and Russia People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives
EDITED BY i AGNIESZKA PIKULICKA-WILCZEWSKA & RICHARD SAKWA Ukraine and Russia People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives This e-book is provided without charge via free download by E-International Relations (www.E-IR.info). It is not permitted to be sold in electronic format under any circumstances. If you enjoy our free e-books, please consider leaving a small donation to allow us to continue investing in open access publications: http://www.e-ir.info/about/donate/ i Ukraine and Russia People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives EDITED BY AGNIESZKA PIKULICKA-WILCZEWSKA & RICHARD SAKWA ii E-International Relations www.E-IR.info Bristol, England First published 2015 New version 2016 ISBN 978-1-910814-14-7 (Paperback) ISBN 978-1-910814-00-0 (e-book) This book is published under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license. You are free to: • Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material Under the following terms: • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. • NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes. Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission. Please contact [email protected] for any such enquiries. Other than the license terms noted above, there are no restrictions placed on the use and dissemination of this book for student learning materials / scholarly use. -
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Populist Volodymyr Zelensky Is Currently Leading in the Polls with 25% to 27%
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Populist Volodymyr Zelensky is currently leading in the polls with 25% to 27%. Current Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko are tied for second with roughly 15% to 18%. Pro-Russian Yuriy Boyko is polling fourth with 9% to 13%. All other candidates are trailing in the polls. Polling data is based on a survey of recent poll results.1 Chart citations can be found on the ISW Research Blog. General Information Political Positions Likelihood of Advancing Russia’s Goals Petro Poroshenko POROSHENKO BLOC “SOLIDARITY” Running as Independent2 Poroshenko is unlikely given his history to make voluntary concessions to • Key supporter of Ukraine’s Russia. The Kremlin has likely already expended most of its existing leverage integration into the EU and on Poroshenko. NATO Russia would likely continue to intensify its military provocations and other • Incumbent President • Strong opponent of the forms of pressure on Ukraine in the event of a victory by Poroshenko. It • Founder of Roshen, the largest Kremlin in Ukraine would also likely attempt to limit his presidential powers through the election chocolate company in Ukraine3 • Suffers from negative public of favorable candidates in the Ukrainian Parliament. • Supported Euromaidan ratings due largely to failed Poroshenko stands to hold a diminished ability to shape policy even if he wins Revolution in 20144 anti-corruption reforms reelection. His popular support is slipping and he would likely win only by a slim margin. His bloc also stands to lose ground in the Ukrainian Parliament. Yulia Tymoshenko ALL-UKRAINIAN UNION “FATHERLAND” (Batkivshchyna)5 • Populist • Frames self as pro-Western Tymoshenko’s populist agenda will likely impede the economic and political and Ukrainian nationalist reforms necessary for Ukraine’s further integration with the West.