LÄNDERBERICHT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

TANZANIA RICHARD SHABA

10. Mai 2010 – Ahead of Elections www.kas.de www.kas.de/kenia I. INTRODUCTION II. OLD HABITS DIE HARD

Tanzania will later this year conduct its Apart from few cosmetic changes of political fourth multiparty general elections. But if culture that have taken place, Tanzania the current socioeconomic and political continues to be shaped by hangovers of trends remain unchanged the country is monolithic politics under the tutelage of a unlikely to make any headway in the politi- seemingly authoritarian incumbent party in cal transition for the foreseeable future. manipulating the political environment to retain power. Although formal multiparty politics was al- lowed in 1992 after three decades of single After 17 years of multiparty politics, Tanza- party political hegemony, the major struc- nians are still suffering from the hangovers tural blockage to effective growth and flour- of single party rule that lasted for over 30 of ish of multipartyism in Tanzania is the con- the post-colonial period. Indicators of politi- flation of the ruling party, state and the cal hangovers are reflected from many an- consequential crowding out of other actors. gles including:

In continuation of its hegemonic days, the • Continuation of politics of exclusion as ruling [CCM] operates opposed to popular participation of a highly centralized and disciplined structure people in power sharing and public pol- dominated by the Chairperson whose pow- icy-making. ers are fused with those of Head of State • Marginalization of majority of the peo- that includes among others appointment of ple from lucrative business and profit- almost all sensitive posts in the state appa- able economic ventures and by ignoring ratus and its organs. poor people in marginal areas with very little investment support, even the so- In addition to dominating the Parliament, called Kilimo Kwanza program [Agricul- the ruling party through appointment pow- ture First] is a mere empty political slo- ers of its Chairperson ensures party loyalists gan geared to hoodwink peasants. dominate security, defence and intelligence services. Equally important, ruling party • Failure to hasten democratic reforms by supporters, particularly at the executive putting in place a level playing field level populate the bureaucratic state appa- through positive changes of regulatory ratus at all levels. Similarly all public utili- and institutional frameworks of govern- ties and regulators are all manned by party ance. Seventeen years after the dawn loyalists. In a country where the public sec- of multipartyism the state institutions tor is the largest and most secure employer of governance still do not fully adhere this arrangement has very serious implica- to democratic norms and practices. tions to the country’s political trends. • There is disillusionment with the nature of power arrangement under which the It is against such a background that one can ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi report on the country’s political trends [CCM] still monopolizes and deliber- ahead of the forthcoming general elections ately works very hard to marginalize and thereafter.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. and divide the already fragile opposi- inability to attain democracy and sustain- tion. able development together with dependency TANZANIA on foreign hand outs. • Civil Society Organizations - NGOs, RICHARD SHABA FBOs, CBOs, trade unions and other in- III. STATE OF MULTIPARTY POLITICS terest and pressure groups - are nu- 10. Mai 2010 merous but very weak in influencing A culture of multipartyism is still very far political decisions, including election re- www.kas.de from ideal. There are numerous indicators. sults. www.kas.de/kenia A vivid example is the repeated refusal by • The administration of elections is still the Executive branch of government to im- considered very weak and until now the plement a Court ruling in favour of private government has failed to introduce candidates at all levels of electoral process. courses in managing elections. The cur- rent election management body is still Most recently the Court of Appeal ruled in considered by the opposition as “par- favour of private candidates and directed tial” due to its composition, manner of the government to put in place mechanism appointment and lack of independent that would enable individuals to participate resources and personnel. in the forthcoming general elections as pri- vate candidates. The reaction from the gov- • Still there is no clear demarcation be- ernment was swift and defiant; “mission tween government functions and func- impossible”. And that was the end of the tions of the incumbent as demonstrated matter. by various fusions, which among others include the fusion between presidency On the other hand however, after relentless and the chairperson of the ruling party, pressure from multilateral donor agencies to District and Regional Commissioners, curb political corruption, for the first time Ministers and MPs and also those sitting since the advent of multiparty politics, on in the Boards of Public Enterprises. March 17 this year, President Jakaya Kik- • Because of such deliberate fusions and wete accented a Bill on Election Expenses confusion in public governance, the in- Act, which among other things; prescribes cumbent party continues to enjoy ac- on the limits on election expenses. cess to public resources allocations apart from the monthly subsidy of Tsh. Already Tsh. 5 billions has been set as the 2.9 billion, which she enjoys by virtual limit for presidential election expenses while of her dominance in the Parliament and Tsh. 50 millions is for parliamentary elec- local council bodies. tions.

• The pace for legal reforms; especially Following the incorporation of stake holders’ constitutional reforms are slow and inputs in the Act, the Registrar of Political confusing. The Constitution still stipu- lates that Tanzania is governed by the Parties is now framing guidelines and regu- lations to govern the forthcoming general ideology of socialism and self-reliance elections. while in practice the country is under economic and political liberalization Even then political pundits still worry about with strong inclination to privatization. enforcement of that law because of many • Multiparty culture and the opposition loopholes such as confidential disclosure of are yet to be institutionalized mostly sources of election funds by candidates and because the level of civic education is political parties. In a situation where both still low. the civil society and the opposition are still weak to ensure checks and balances against A combination of the above features means the incumbent party the practicability of the that Tanzania is still affected by the decimal new law remains very doubtful. performance of political and economic com-

petition, poor governance, grand corruption,

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. IV. THE STUNTED OPPOSITION Currently there are 19 fully registered politi- cal parties. More are clamoring for registra- TANZANIA The practices of any depend tion. RICHARD SHABA to large extent on its internal organization. That is its leadership qualities, its resource The latest new comer is Chama Cha Jamii 10. Mai 2010 endowments, its cohesiveness and capacity (CCJ), a welfare oriented political party to resolve internal conflicts and, above all which is advocating for return to the social- www.kas.de its internal democracy necessary for legiti- ist welfare days of founding father Mwalimu www.kas.de/kenia macy building. .

Seventeen years since they were allowed to The latest political party appears to be more operate, the opposition political parties re- focused and has to some extent captured main stunted from a combination of factors public attention with the defection of one that range from the political system, which MP from the ruling party even though it is is unsuitable to the local conditions and im- yet to get full registration. perative to the hegemonic nature of the in- cumbent party and their own weaklings. On the other hand, with the exception of and CUF opposition political par- The weakling of the opposition political par- ties, other registered parties have always ties emanates from the very fact that the remained couched in their cocoons until incumbent party still uses state machinery election periods when they would raise their to divide the opposition by planting agents heads, make few noises and go back to in the budding oppositions with the sole aim slumber. of weakening them and discrediting them in the public eyes. The never ending leader- Without alternative policy programs to chal- ship wrangling and defections back to the lenge the incumbent, opposition leaders ruling party is one reason that has led to only react to political events. A classic ex- political disenchantment in the country. The ample is Augustine Mrema – controversial other obvious reason is that almost all the leader of TLP [Tanzania Labour Party] – opposition political parties suffer from lack whose leadership is riddled with internal of the material, financial and human re- wrangling right, left and centre. With his sources to function effectively under the political popularity having plummeted to its prevailing political environment. Equally im- lowest ebb, Mrema has already declared portant is the fact that most of these parties that he will be campaigning for the incum- have been created from the top by leaders bent President Kikwete. Mrema has equally without a base at the grassroots and nor- confessed in public that he belongs to the mally their life span cannot exceed the state intelligence service. Such pronounce- dominant party founders and especially the ments do not augur well for the growth and leader/chairperson. flourish of the opposition political parties and thereafter multiparty democracy. CCM has so far refused all calls to surrender public assets inherited from single party era Apart from the power of the purse and state such as football stadiums, public buildings, organs, other political tricks and gimmicks land, office buildings and companies. With used by incumbent to kill the opposition in- most of the rules of the political game work- clude physiological terror and intimidation ing in favour of the incumbent, the conduct through witchcraft, witch hunting and su- of multiparty politics is still lopsided. perstition.

Notwithstanding their increasing numbers, Already, a leading local astrologer with both the opposition and civil society are re- strong connection to the ruling party has strained by immaturity of multiparty culture issued an ultimatum warning to those wish- and incomplete process of democratic re- ing to oppose President Kikwete. His mes- forms. sage is loud and clear. Who ever attempts to oppose the sitting President in the forth-

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. coming elections will succumb to sudden President is ending his second and final death. term in office. TANZANIA RICHARD SHABA In a country with strong belief in witchcraft Many names are being paraded. These in- and superstition including brutal killing of clude Karume’s young brother Ali Karume 10. Mai 2010 albinos for political ends, such pronounce- currently Tanzania’s Ambassador to Italy, ments have a terrifying influence in a coun- Defence Minister in the Union Government, www.kas.de try where 36 per cent of its population is Dr [Dr. Mwinyi is son of www.kas.de/kenia illiterate. [Tanzania’s illiteracy rate is just former Union President ]. above that of Southern Sudan which has There is also current Union Vice President never known peace since 1956]. Dr , former Chief Minister Dr. Mohammed Ghalib Bilal The influence of superstition in politics is and his successor Vuai Nahodha and a also a reflection of weak civic education to- horde of other political hawks. gether with primitive political practice. In Tanzania almost all opposition political par- Given that Zanzibar has strong political ties lack grassroots support mostly because competition with great influence of CUF, they are built from the top instead of bot- there is a possibility that for the first time tom as is the case with CCM whose grass- since 1964 Zanzibar may get a President roots linkage is traceable to the anticolonial from Pemba. Another area of interest that struggle. As such they lack linkages with needs special attention revolves around the interest/ pressure groups from which most possibility of forming a government of na- of the election agenda should emanate. tional unit. Already two CUF members have been picked by President Karume to the V. HIGH NOON IN ZANZIBAR House of Representatives.

For the first time since the introduction of VI. POSSIBLE AGENDA FOR THE multipartyism in Zanzibar there is much to FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS watch on the political development. With the signing of political accord between the Although the economy is the major issue ruling party and the main opposition Civic that should determine the election outcome, United Front [CUF], the political stalemate it is personality of party leaders and money that had left the country divided right at the that will determine who wins. In this regard middle has come to the end. much as there is dissatisfaction everywhere given the high degree of poverty and the The recognition of incumbent President fact that after 49 years in power the ruling Amani Karume by CUF Secretary General party is exhausted, still voters will go for its Seif Shariff Hamad has brought to the end a candidates because they have the money to political stalemate that had lasted since bribe. 1995. Like in all past elections political parties will While the powerful CUF Secretary General produce election manifestos, policies and has already declared in public that he was programmes, but these are rarely used. going to contest for Zanzibar presidency, They are just empty promises to passive the incumbent President is ending his sec- voters. Part of the problem is high degree of ond term of office tenure. ignorance of voters combined with poverty. To many of them, voting time is not an op- On the part of CCM, the signing of the po- portunity to sack nonperforming govern- litical accord “Muafaka” in Zanzibar has cre- ment or incompetent individual leaders but ated uncertainty in the process of fielding rather to “profit” from tokens that range presidential candidate. It is clear that there from second hand clothes, free local beer to will be many contestants in the Zanzibar few cents and salt. presidential race now that the incumbent

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. And with the emergency of ‘gangs of white who cannot think and who are easily collar criminals’ masquerading as political cheated with “alms” and token bribes from TANZANIA philanthropists in the incumbent party’s uni- aspiring candidates and their supporters. RICHARD SHABA forms, voters especially women and rural That explains why many of frustrated but dwellers have been taken hostage of “politi- powerless social groups look back to social- 10. Mai 2010 cal business”. This explains why political ism and the days of of corruption will continue not only to flourish Mwalimu Nyerere. www.kas.de but also to determine who assumes political www.kas.de/kenia power. With regard to election itself, the National Electoral Commission [NEC] is projecting to Given, the global economic crisis affecting register 21 million voters compared to 15 national economy and poor performance of million who registered in 2005. By last year the Kikwete regime in economic manage- some 18 million had already registered in ment, the opposition could have capitalized the voter’s registry. According to Rajab on that to wrestle power. But with fragile Kiravu, Director of Elections some Tsh. 109 and non-visionary leadership, the opposition billion is required to foot the election bill. will never come to power in the near future. Out of the amount 21 percent will be con- What is expected however is an increased tributed by donors. number of MPs from the opposition due to possible crossovers from CCM. Interestingly, notwithstanding the number of registered voters, the fact of the matter Equally predictable is voter apathy given is that many are getting registered not nec- people’s disillusionment with the political essarily to participate in the election as such management of the country by the current but rather for other reasons given that the leadership. Already issues pertaining to voter’s card has a multipurpose usage like people’s welfare are being sidelined. People an ID. complain of abandoned public offices as as- piring big wigs are busy combing rural areas An equally interesting point to note is the bribing poor people and/or intimidating po- fact that the election results will only tential opponents. Interestingly to the change faces in the saddle of power but not common man in the streets and rural set- the direction of politics simply because eve- tings, it is a year of “harvests” and empty rybody else wants to ascend to power in or- promises from politicians. der to “eat.” For now and in the near future politics – the belly politics - will continue to In the coming budget about 30 per cent is shae politics in Tanzania. foreign aid, and development expenditure is about 31 per cent of the budget. When de- It will also be interesting to follow a stiff velopment becomes the business of the UN competition especially in the nomination of and bilateral agencies while local revenue is parliamentary candidates because of a new directed only for allowances and salaries procedure. Unlike in the past where aspiring there is something terribly wrong some- candidates were voted by CCM branch rep- where. resentatives, this time around all party members will participate in the nomination Instead of ensuring that accelerating eco- process. This has implication in increased nomic growth trickles down more to millions resource allocations and subsequent level of of the poor to help bolster the party’s vote bribery in the CCM nomination process. base, the incumbent regime is reputed for its wasteful expenditure and luxury that in- clude endless trips abroad and lavish allow- ances paid to executives in the bloated bu- reaucracy.

Part of the problem is the passive nature of voters. They are treated as inert creatures