May 30, 2007 MYANMAR: SECURITY ASSESSMENT Country Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is the largest country in Southeast Asia and one of the poorest countries in the world, with an annual growth in gross domestic product of only 2.9 percent. It is bordered by the People’s Republic of China to the north, Laos to the east, Bangladesh to the west, India to the northwest and Thailand to the southeast. Approximately one-third of Myanmar’s border is coastline along the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Its capital changed from Yangon, formerly known as Rangoon, to a site near Pyinmana, a smaller city approximately 200 miles to the north. The country is run by a military junta known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and is divided into seven divisions and seven states. The states are populated mainly by ethnic minorities while the divisions are home to the Burman, who make up about 68 percent of Myanmar’s population of 50 million. Emerging in recent years from a long period of isolation, Myanmar has begun to encourage tourism and is trying to take a more active role in regional economic and political organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Foreign travelers to Myanmar can anticipate paying far more than locals do for everything from hotel accommodations to domestic airfare to entry into tourist sites. The only holiday in late July is Martyrs’ Day, on July 19, which commemorates the 1947 assassinations of several of the country’s independence leaders by a rival political group. The U.S. Embassy in Myanmar is located at 581 Merchant Street in Yangon. Office hours are 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday. U.S. citizens may phone (95- 1) 379-880, 379-881, 379-883, 370-963 or 370-964 during office hours and (95-1) 370-965 after hours. Cities Yangon, the former capital of Myanmar, remains the country’s economic center and largest city, with approximately 5 million people. The city is located in the Yangon Division of Myanmar and is divided into four different districts -- the Northern, Southern, Eastern and Western districts -- which have a combined total of 32 townships. Yangon’s most notable attraction is the Shwedagon Pagoda, which is also the dominant architectural feature of the city. Several other smaller pagodas and well-kept parks are also prime tourist venues. Foreign visitors to Yangon report that many of the city’s residents seem unhappy and wary, although they appear to accept most foreigners who are not Chinese. The military regime brought in Chinese to help develop the economy, and many have prospered to the point where they have taken over most of the businesses in Yangon © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1 and have come to dominate Myanmarese society as a kind of entrepreneurial elite. Indigenous Burmans resent this. Pyinmana is home to about 100,000 people and is primarily a center for sugar cane refining and logging. In November 2005, the military junta decided to move the capital from Yangon to a complex that lies about two miles outside of Pyinmana named Naypyidaw, or “Place of the Kings.” Terrorism The government of Myanmar is a military regime that keeps close watch over potentially subversive elements of society. This makes it difficult, but not impossible, for militant groups to operate in the country’s cities. There is no indication that terrorist groups are planning to conduct attacks inside the country, but the potential for attacks does exist, given the unstable political situation within the country. Travelers should remain aware of their surroundings at all times, particularly when in large gatherings or in busy markets. The most serious act of international terrorism in the country occurred in October 1983, when a bomb planted by North Korean agents detonated at the martyrs’ memorial in Yangon, killing 21 people and injuring 46 -- including visiting members of the South Korean government. Since then there have been no significant incidents of international terrorism. There have been incidents staged by domestic groups targeting government officials and businesses, but none has approached the scope of the South Korean attack. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and multinational corporations have not been specifically targeted by opposition groups in Myanmar. Several militant attacks have occurred in Yangon in the past couple of years, the most recent being in May 2006. However, the attacks usually have been small in scale and have caused little damage. A May 2006 bombing near an electrical transformer in the Penwegon-Kyauktaka township of Yangon hardly caused any © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 2 damage to the transformer or the fence surrounding it. Another blast occurred in the same location a short time later, killing one bystander. In April 2006, a series of small bombs exploded near the General Post Office and the Post and Telecommunications Office and behind the Bogyoke Market near a railroad track, but the government has released little information about the bombings. On April 26, 2005, an improvised explosive device detonated in a crowded tourist market in the town of Mandalay, killing at least two people and wounding another 15. About three weeks later, at least three nearly simultaneous explosions occurred in Yangon on May 7, 2005, leaving at least 19 people dead and another 162 injured. The perpetrators have not been officially identified, though political opposition supporters were blamed for carrying out the attacks. The attacks were against economic targets, including two supermarkets and one Thai trade fair in the city. This may have been an attempt by militants to destabilize the military junta. There have not been any reported incidents of terrorism in Pyinmana in recent years. Despite the internal discontent, the tight control maintained by the military government makes the planning and carrying out of attacks difficult. The overall threat of terrorism in Myanmar is medium.1 Crime Petty crime against foreigners is not a major concern in Myanmar. The ruling military regime has a significant police presence throughout the country, making it difficult for thieves and robbers to operate. Crime is lower in Myanmar than in many of the other countries in the region. However, the crime rate has been on the rise in recent years because of the deteriorating economic conditions in the country. When foreigners are victimized by petty crime, the offense is typically non-violent petty theft or hotel burglary in tourist areas. Violent crime against foreigners is very rare and, when it occurs, is typically vehicle-related (carjacking and the like), though there have been sporadic reports of sexual assault against female foreigners. Most violent crime against foreigners occurs in areas not frequented by tourists, particularly in the countryside. Theft in the country is considered to be a crime of opportunity and usually takes the form of pickpocketing or purse-snatching. To avoid being victimized, travelers are advised to maintain a low profile and avoid giving the impression that they are wealthy. The main source of organized criminal activity in the country is drug-trafficking. Myanmar is the second-largest opium producer in the world and a major supplier of the methamphetamines and heroin consumed in the region. The government has made few serious attempts to challenge the major drug-trafficking groups in Myanmar, which are often backed by, or are part of, ethnic insurgent groups. Little action has been taken to curb money-laundering, which makes the already-limited anti-drug efforts essentially futile. The military and ethnic groups are also engaged in a great deal of illicit activity involving drugs, timber, precious gems, manufacturing and money-laundering. Violence is common among factions battling for market share. Foreign travelers are rarely exposed to organized crime in Myanmar and are unlikely to be victimized by these groups. The threat of crime in Myanmar is medium.2 War and Insurgency Throughout its existence as an independent state, Myanmar has been involved in a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups. © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 3 The main ethnic groups involved in fighting the predominantly Burman government are the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni (or Kayah), Mon, Rakhine (or Arakan) and Shan. Cease-fires between the SPDC and armed ethnic opposition groups that have been in effect since the late 1980s have brought relief in some areas but no real or lasting solutions. In many cases the cease- fires are in name only, and fighting between government forces and ethnic groups, or between ethnic groups and a government-backed ethnic army, continues in rural areas across the country. The military government has said it cannot guarantee the safety of foreigners traveling in territory controlled by the Wa ethnic group along the Thai border in eastern Shan state. This area is known as “Special Region 2.” The most recent battle occurred in April, when fighting between Myanmarese soldiers and rebels near the Thai border resulted in at least 17 deaths and caused hundreds of locals to flee across the border into Thailand. The insurgency also manifested itself in a series of small-scale bombing attacks in various areas in 2005 and 2006. Fighting between government forces and ethnically based insurgent groups most often occurs along the border between Myanmar and Thailand in the southern states. Fighting also breaks out regularly in the eastern states of Chin and Rakhine, on the border with India. To date, no Western tourists have been targeted, although they can be affected by the violence. In February 2001, cross-border fighting in Shan state left several Western tourists stranded. Anti-personnel landmines in the border regions pose an additional danger. The likelihood of war and insurgency in Myanmar is high.3 Political Instability Because the current government of Myanmar is a repressive military junta and does not represent the country’s population, it is subject to a great deal of domestic and international political opposition.