Myanmar: Security Assessment

May 30, 2007

MYANMAR: SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Country Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, is the largest country in Southeast Asia and one of the poorest countries in the world, with an annual growth in gross domestic product of only 2.9 percent. It is bordered by the People’s Republic of China to the north, Laos to the east, Bangladesh to the west, India to the northwest and Thailand to the southeast. Approximately one-third of Myanmar’s border is coastline along the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Its capital changed from Yangon, formerly known as Rangoon, to a site near Pyinmana, a smaller city approximately 200 miles to the north. The country is run by a military junta known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and is divided into seven divisions and seven states. The states are populated mainly by ethnic minorities while the divisions are home to the Burman, who make up about 68 percent of Myanmar’s population of 50 million.

Emerging in recent years from a long period of isolation, Myanmar has begun to encourage tourism and is trying to take a more active role in regional economic and political organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Foreign travelers to Myanmar can anticipate paying far more than locals do for everything from hotel accommodations to domestic airfare to entry into tourist sites. The only holiday in late July is Martyrs’ Day, on July 19, which commemorates the 1947 assassinations of several of the country’s independence leaders by a rival political group.

The U.S. Embassy in Myanmar is located at 581 Merchant Street in Yangon. Office hours are 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday. U.S. citizens may phone (95- 1) 379-880, 379-881, 379-883, 370-963 or 370-964 during office hours and (95-1) 370-965 after hours.

Cities Yangon, the former capital of Myanmar, remains the country’s economic center and largest city, with approximately 5 million people. The city is located in the Yangon Division of Myanmar and is divided into four different districts -- the Northern, Southern, Eastern and Western districts -- which have a combined total of 32 townships. Yangon’s most notable attraction is the Shwedagon Pagoda, which is also the dominant architectural feature of the city. Several other smaller pagodas and well-kept parks are also prime tourist venues.

Foreign visitors to Yangon report that many of the city’s residents seem unhappy and wary, although they appear to accept most foreigners who are not Chinese. The military regime brought in Chinese to help develop the economy, and many have prospered to the point where they have taken over most of the businesses in Yangon

and have come to dominate Myanmarese society as a kind of entrepreneurial elite. Indigenous Burmans resent this.

Pyinmana is home to about 100,000 people and is primarily a center for sugar cane refining and logging. In November 2005, the military junta decided to move the capital from Yangon to a complex that lies about two miles outside of Pyinmana named Naypyidaw, or “Place of the Kings.”

Terrorism The government of Myanmar is a military regime that keeps close watch over potentially subversive elements of society. This makes it difficult, but not impossible, for militant groups to operate in the country’s cities. There is no indication that terrorist groups are planning to conduct attacks inside the country, but the potential for attacks does exist, given the unstable political situation within the country. Travelers should remain aware of their surroundings at all times, particularly when in large gatherings or in busy markets.

The most serious act of international terrorism in the country occurred in October 1983, when a bomb planted by North Korean agents detonated at the martyrs’ memorial in Yangon, killing 21 people and injuring 46 -- including visiting members of the South Korean government. Since then there have been no significant incidents of international terrorism.

There have been incidents staged by domestic groups targeting government officials and businesses, but none has approached the scope of the South Korean attack. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and multinational corporations have not been specifically targeted by opposition groups in Myanmar.

Several militant attacks have occurred in Yangon in the past couple of years, the most recent being in May 2006. However, the attacks usually have been small in scale and have caused little damage. A May 2006 bombing near an electrical transformer in the Penwegon-Kyauktaka township of Yangon hardly caused any

damage to the transformer or the fence surrounding it. Another blast occurred in the same location a short time later, killing one bystander. In April 2006, a series of small bombs exploded near the General Post Office and the Post and Telecommunications Office and behind the Bogyoke Market near a railroad track, but the government has released little information about the bombings. On April 26, 2005, an improvised explosive device detonated in a crowded tourist market in the town of Mandalay, killing at least two people and wounding another 15.

About three weeks later, at least three nearly simultaneous explosions occurred in Yangon on May 7, 2005, leaving at least 19 people dead and another 162 injured. The perpetrators have not been officially identified, though political opposition supporters were blamed for carrying out the attacks. The attacks were against economic targets, including two supermarkets and one Thai trade fair in the city. This may have been an attempt by militants to destabilize the military junta. There have not been any reported incidents of terrorism in Pyinmana in recent years.

Despite the internal discontent, the tight control maintained by the military government makes the planning and carrying out of attacks difficult. The overall threat of terrorism in Myanmar is medium.1

Crime Petty crime against foreigners is not a major concern in Myanmar. The ruling military regime has a significant police presence throughout the country, making it difficult for thieves and robbers to operate. Crime is lower in Myanmar than in many of the other countries in the region. However, the crime rate has been on the rise in recent years because of the deteriorating economic conditions in the country. When foreigners are victimized by petty crime, the offense is typically non-violent petty theft or hotel burglary in tourist areas. Violent crime against foreigners is very rare and, when it occurs, is typically vehicle-related (carjacking and the like), though there have been sporadic reports of sexual assault against female foreigners. Most violent crime against foreigners occurs in areas not frequented by tourists, particularly in the countryside. Theft in the country is considered to be a crime of opportunity and usually takes the form of pickpocketing or purse-snatching. To avoid being victimized, travelers are advised to maintain a low profile and avoid giving the impression that they are wealthy.

The main source of organized criminal activity in the country is drug-trafficking. Myanmar is the second-largest opium producer in the world and a major supplier of the methamphetamines and heroin consumed in the region. The government has made few serious attempts to challenge the major drug-trafficking groups in Myanmar, which are often backed by, or are part of, ethnic insurgent groups. Little action has been taken to curb money-laundering, which makes the already-limited anti-drug efforts essentially futile. The military and ethnic groups are also engaged in a great deal of illicit activity involving drugs, timber, precious gems, manufacturing and money-laundering. Violence is common among factions battling for market share. Foreign travelers are rarely exposed to organized crime in Myanmar and are unlikely to be victimized by these groups.

The threat of crime in Myanmar is medium.2

War and Insurgency Throughout its existence as an independent state, Myanmar has been involved in a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups.

The main ethnic groups involved in fighting the predominantly Burman government are the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni (or Kayah), Mon, Rakhine (or Arakan) and Shan. Cease-fires between the SPDC and armed ethnic opposition groups that have been in effect since the late 1980s have brought relief in some areas but no real or lasting solutions. In many cases the cease- fires are in name only, and fighting between government forces and ethnic groups, or between ethnic groups and a government-backed ethnic army, continues in rural areas across the country. The military government has said it cannot guarantee the safety of foreigners traveling in territory controlled by the Wa ethnic group along the Thai border in eastern Shan state. This area is known as “Special Region 2.”

The most recent battle occurred in April, when fighting between Myanmarese soldiers and rebels near the Thai border resulted in at least 17 deaths and caused hundreds of locals to flee across the border into Thailand. The insurgency also manifested itself in a series of small-scale bombing attacks in various areas in 2005 and 2006. Fighting between government forces and ethnically based insurgent groups most often occurs along the border between Myanmar and Thailand in the southern states.

Fighting also breaks out regularly in the eastern states of Chin and Rakhine, on the border with India. To date, no Western tourists have been targeted, although they can be affected by the violence. In February 2001, cross-border fighting in Shan state left several Western tourists stranded. Anti-personnel landmines in the border regions pose an additional danger.

The likelihood of war and insurgency in Myanmar is high.3

Political Instability Because the current government of Myanmar is a repressive military junta and does not represent the country’s population, it is subject to a great deal of domestic and international political opposition. The abrupt 2005 decision by the SPDC to move the capital to a location near Pyinmana was just one sign of the stress the military regime is under as it begins to rely more heavily on the advice of astrologers for important national decisions.

The military government is very suspicious of any foreigner, especially those involved with NGOs entering the country. The SPDC can make matters very difficult for any individuals or NGOs it feels might be attempting to expose human rights

violations or other abuses inside Myanmar. It should be noted that the ruling military junta considers political advocacy against the government or in support of political opposition groups a serious crime. The U.S. Embassy reports that some American citizens have been arrested for discussing democratic ideas with locals and for taking pictures of certain things related to the military or national security (this would include any activities suggesting human-rights or political repression, such as police arresting someone or breaking up a demonstration). Also, the promotion of any type of Christian beliefs -- including carrying a Bible -- is grounds for arrest. Many individuals entering the country have had Bibles and other religious materials confiscated upon entry. Visitors are strongly advised not to engage in political discussions of any kind or bring religious materials into the country.

Unlike other countries in Southeast Asia, where U.S. citizens who cross the government are usually just deported, Myanmar commonly detains foreigners, including U.S. citizens, as political prisoners. In many cases, the U.S. government can do little to help a U.S. citizen imprisoned in Myanmar, and if help comes, it will come slowly. The U.S. Embassy in Yangon might not be able to quickly respond to the detention of a U.S. citizen, since the Myanmarese government does not readily alert the embassy of the arrest of American citizens. The government also has been known to block access of consular officials to U.S. detainees.

The SPDC remains insecure because of perceived as well as real threats from the international community, particularly the United States. Numerous local reports and sources suggest that one reason the capital was moved was to add strategic depth from the coasts in case the United States decided to invade Myanmar and topple the regime. But a major reason for the move is the internal threat -- the regime no longer feels secure in bustling Yangon, where it cannot keep a close enough eye on city residents. In the new, smaller and morel controllable capital, the government can better monitor the city’s population.

While street protests and other forms of political discontent are infrequent, the insecurities of the regime have become a source of political instability. On April 22, 2007, a rare demonstration occurred in a Yangon suburb, where protesters called for lower prices and better educational, utility and health services. The protest ended after about 70 minutes without violence, but the military junta detained eight people. Their detention was part of a military crackdown on protesters and human rights activists that was announced in the country’s official press the following day. Opposition parties, though they still exist, are carefully monitored and limited by the government.

Because the government’s seemingly random decisions driven by fear have created a strong sense of uncertainty among the population and a growing discontent with the ruling junta’s policies, the threat of political instability in Myanmar is high.4

Miscellaneous Threats In accordance with U.S. government regulations implemented in 2003, travelers’ checks, credit cards and debit cards issued in the United States will not work in Myanmar. Travelers are therefore encouraged to obtain all currency necessary for the duration of their trip before entering the country, since the government of Myanmar prohibits exchanging currency at any location not sanctioned by the government, including street vendors. Acceptable change locations include the airport, government-owned banks and government stores. Sanctions placed on the military government by the United States in 2003 prohibit the import of virtually all

goods -- including gifts, souvenirs and personal-use items -- from Myanmar to the United States.

The military government of Myanmar also exercises complete control of Internet use within the country. The Internet is heavily censored in Myanmar, and most free international email services such as Hotmail are prohibited. Some of the larger hotels do offer limited email service, but it can be very expensive, particularly when transmitting photographs. Military intelligence reads all emails, and it is important for visitors to be prudent in their use of the Internet and to avoid visiting any sites that the ruling junta would consider anti-government. Travelers to Myanmar are permitted to bring one laptop per person into the country, and it must be declared upon arrival.

The military government is very suspicious of electronic equipment being brought into Myanmar. There is no official list of prohibited items issued by the government, and customs officials can be arbitrary about what is banned and what is allowed. The U.S. Embassy is not aware of any instances of medical equipment being prohibited.

Myanmar customs and immigration officials, like most in Southeast Asia, can be difficult, particularly if they believe a traveler is a foreign government or NGO worker entering the country to expose human rights abuses. Officials will not hesitate to confiscate cameras, laptops, and other items. The traveler might even be detained for questioning until the officials are convinced he or she is not a threat, or until a “fine” is paid.

There are few serious problems with disease in Myanmar and no vaccinations are required prior to entering the country. However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control recommends that all travelers to Myanmar be vaccinated against Hepatitis A, Hepatitis C, Japanese encephalitis, typhoid and rabies and receive a booster shot for tetanus-diphtheria and measles if needed, as well as a polio vaccine for adults. Malaria is also prevalent in some areas of the country. There have also been several suspected cases of Avian Flu in Myanmar, most recently in April.

Tap water should not be consumed by foreign visitors, who should also be wary of bottled water, which is often nothing more than tap water that vendors sell to unwitting tourists.

The medical facilities in Myanmar are far below Western standards and are not sufficient for most medical care. They should be used only in emergencies, and if more care is needed, travelers should arrange to visit a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Private clinics in Yangon are better than public hospitals; however, they are still below Western standards. The SOS International Clinic at the Inya Lake Hotel maintains a French doctor on staff who is usually available during the week or for serious emergencies.

Roads in Yangon are in reasonably good shape because of new construction and widening projects undertaken after 1998. However, buses are often severely crowded. Taxis are the most common and reliable way for visitors to get around. Although rates are reasonable for locals, drivers are known to charge exorbitant rates for tourists. Government-run taxis are blue with a red stripe. There are no meters in taxis; fares are charged by the hour and must be negotiated before the trip. Foreign visitors are advised to charter a reliable taxi or car from a hotel for use during their visit. Outside of Yangon, roads are generally in disrepair and often are

not wide enough for safe travel by two vehicles going in opposite directions. Riding in vehicles at night should be avoided if at all possible, since most roads are not properly lit and many vehicles are not equipped with working headlights.

Miscellaneous threats in Myanmar are medium.5 ______

1. Terrorism threat levels. Low: No known credible threat. Medium: Potential but unsubstantiated threats by capable indigenous or transnational actors. High: Demonstrable history and continued potential for militant attacks against generalized targets. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are not specifically targeted. Critical: Demonstrable history and continued likelihood of militant attacks. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are specifically targeted.

2. Crime threat levels. Low: Relatively low crime rate, mainly property or petty crime. Medium: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, low potential for violence. High: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, probability of violence and moderate risk of physical crime. Critical: Extensive criminal activity targeting foreigners with a high possibility of physical crime, including violence and kidnapping; heavily armed criminal elements abundant.

3. War and Insurgency threat levels. Low: No or relatively low threat of violent insurgency. Medium: Nearby insurgency with the potential of affecting city, region, country or transportation network. High: Insurgency within the city, region or country but with little direct effect on foreigners. Critical: Insurgency within the city, region or country directly threatening foreigners.

4. Political Instability threat levels. Low: No or minimal visible activity directed against the government. Medium: Sporadic street demonstrations, largely peaceful. High: Routine large-scale demonstrations, often affecting traffic and having the potential for violence. Critical: Endemic strikes, protests and street demonstrations almost always affecting traffic with a high probability of associated violence.

5. Miscellaneous threat levels. Low: Little or no known threats posed by disease, weather, natural disasters, transportation hazards or other dangers. Medium: Moderate level of risk posed by some or all of these threats. High: Considerable danger posed by some or all of these threats. Critical: Extremely high level of danger posed by some or all of these threats.