EEA Report No 8/2009 Regional climate change and adaptation The Alps facing the challenge of changing water resources ISSN 1725-9177 EEA Report No 8/2009 Regional climate change and adaptation The Alps facing the challenge of changing water resources Cover design: EEA Cover photo © Marc Zebisch Left photo © stockxpert Right photo © Torsten Grothmann Layout: EEA/Pia Schmidt Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © EEA, Copenhagen, 2009 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (www.europa.eu). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2009 Identifiers in English original: ISBN 978-92-9213-006-0 ISSN 1725-9177 DOI 10.2800/12552 © EEA, Copenhagen, 2009 REG.NO. DK-000244 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel.: +45 33 36 71 00 Fax: +45 33 36 71 99 Web: eea.europa.eu Enquiries: eea.europa.eu/enquiries Contents Contents List of figures and tables ............................................................................................ 5 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 7 Executive summary .................................................................................................... 9 1 Introduction and overview .................................................................................. 17 1.1 The Alps — a highly vulnerable region and the water towers of Europe ....................17 1.2 Study objectives and regional focus ....................................................................17 1.3 EU policy background .......................................................................................18 1.4 Theory and concepts ........................................................................................20 1.5 Structure and methodology of study ...................................................................20 2 Climate change in the Alps .................................................................................. 22 2.1 A brief view of the alpine climate over the past 250 years .....................................22 2.2 Future climate change ......................................................................................25 3 The Alps as water towers for Europe ................................................................... 30 3.1 Contribution of alpine river catchments to water availability in Europe .....................30 3.2 The Danube (north-east) ..................................................................................33 3.3 The Rhine (north-west).....................................................................................34 3.4 The Po and the Adige (south-east) .....................................................................35 3.5 The Rhone (south-west) ...................................................................................38 3.6 River basin management challenges ..................................................................39 4 Water resources, climate change and adaptation options in sectors .................... 41 4.1 Ecosystem services and cross-sectoral adaptation ................................................41 4.2 Biodiversity conservation ..................................................................................46 4.3 Households .....................................................................................................49 4.4 Forestry ..........................................................................................................51 4.5 Agriculture ......................................................................................................53 4.6 Tourism ..........................................................................................................55 4.7 Energy ...........................................................................................................57 4.8 Industry .........................................................................................................59 4.9 River navigation ..............................................................................................60 Regional climate change and adaptation 3 Contents 5 The regional perspective ..................................................................................... 63 5.1 Overview and methodology of regional case studies .............................................63 5.2 Joint efforts against water shortages — River Lavant valley in Carinthia (Austria) .....66 5.3 The Valais — an inner-alpine valley traditionally adapted to arid climate (Switzerland) .. 71 5.4 A long history of adaptation — water availability in South Tyrol (Italy) ....................76 5.5 Savoy — balancing water demand and water supply under increasing climate change pressures (France) ............................................................................... 81 5.6 The secrets of Vienna's high water quality (Austria) ..............................................85 5.7 Is there a need to prepare for potential droughts even in the Soča river basin? (Slovenia and Italy) ........................................................................................ 90 6 Adaptation in vulnerable alpine regions — lessons learnt from regional case studies ........................................................................................... 96 6.1 A high adaptive capacity in the Alps ..................................................................97 6.2 From reactive water resource management to proactive adaptation to climate change ...............................................................................................98 6.3 Complementing technological solutions with behavioural adaptation .....................103 6.4 From sectoral to cross-sectoral adaptation ........................................................104 6.5 From local to regional and inter-regional adaptation ...........................................105 6.6 Improving multi-level governance and information flow ......................................106 6.7 Drivers of and barriers to adaptation to water resource issues..............................106 7 Adaptation at the European scale — cooperation with alpine water towers ....... 109 7.1 Downstream resource dependencies ................................................................110 7.2 Cooperation and adaptive management in river basins .......................................111 7.3 The legal framework for adaptive transboundary river management......................112 7.4 Transboundary case studies .............................................................................114 7.5 Recommendations for adaptation in transboundary settings ................................116 7.6 Lessons learnt for other mountain regions in Europe ..........................................119 Annex 1 Glossary of key terms ............................................................................... 122 References ............................................................................................................. 124 4 Regional climate change and adaptation List of figures and tables List of figures and tables Figures Figure ES.1 Fields of potential cross-sectoral water competition relevant for adaptation .....13 Figure 1.1 Conceptual model for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.....20 Figure 2.1 Leading horizontal climate sub-regions of the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) .....23 Figure 2.2 Change in temperature 1760–2007 for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) Single years and 20-year smoothed mean GAR series from 1760–2007 (1760/61–2007/08) .................................................................................23 Figure 2.3 Annual precipitation series and annual cloudiness series ............................ 24 Figure 2.4 Temperature and precipitation in the Alps for the period 1961–1990 ............ 26 Figure 2.5 Temperature change in the Alps and their sub-regions according to different emission scenarios ................................................................... 26 Figure 2.6 Seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature up until the end of the 21st century, according to CLM scenario A1B....................................... 27 Figure 2.7 Changes in seasonal precipitation and run-off according to different emission scenarios in CLM ...................................................................... 28 Figure 2.8 Run-off and snow cover change up until the end of the 21st century in the winter, according to the CLM A1B scenario....................................... 29 Figure 3.1 The Alps, the main river basin districts and climatic sub-regions.................. 31 Figure 3.2 Average yearly run-offs of the main alpine rivers — tendencies ................... 32 Figure 4.1 Ecosystem services and drivers of change ................................................ 42 Figure 4.2 Fields of potential cross-sectoral water competition relevant for adaptation .....44 Figure 4.3 Protected areas in the Alps ...................................................................