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Quarterly Snapshot on China's Banking Sector

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Quarterly Snapshot on China's Banking Sector Quarterly Snapshot on China’s Banking Sector Fourth Quarter of 2020 March 2021 Contents Business Position Capital and Earnings Risk Position Funding & Liquidity Government Influence Industry Outlook Special Topic 1: Relationship between Bond Defaults and Bank Asset Quality Special Topic 2: Shadow Banking’s Impact on the Banking Sector Appendix: Related FI Research 2 China’s robust economic recovery underpins our stable credit outlook for the banking sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 30,000 8 4 20,000 0 10,000 (4) 0 (8) (Bil. RMB) (%) Quarterly Real GDP YoY Growth of Quarterly Real GDP (Right Axis) Source: Wind, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 Aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) maintained high growth in 2020 but as the economy moves beyond COVID, we expect lending growth to moderate and leverage levels to further stabilize Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (AFRE) 300 15 2020.09 2020.10 2020.11 2020.12 AFRE 280.05 281.25 283.25 284.83 (Tril. RMB) 250 12.5 . RMB) Tril ( AFRE Growth Rate YoY 13.5 13.7 13.6 13.3 (%) 200 10 Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. (%) AFRE AFRE Growth Rate (Right Axis) Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 4 Shadow banking activities continued to contract in Q4 AFRE Structure as of end of 2020 YoY Growth Rate of Major AFRE Components Entrusted and 50 Trust Loans 6.1% 40 30 Corporate Bonds 20 9.7% 10 RMB Loans Government 60.2% Bonds 0 16.2% -10 -20 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Domestic Equity (%) Financing of Non- RMB Loans Entrusted Loans Trust Loans financial Companies Others 2.9% Corporate Bonds Government Bonds 4.9% Note: Others include foreign currency loans, undiscounted banks’ acceptance bills and other financing instruments. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 While lending growth remained stable for corporate and household sectors, loans to non-bank financial institutions contracted in Q4 RMB Loan Breakdown as of End of 2020 YoY Growth Rate of RMB Loans Corporate and Public Institution Loans 40 62.8% Non-banking Financial 20 Institution Loans 0.3% 0 Oversea (20) Loans 0.4% (40) (60) 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 (%) Retail Loans Corporate and Public Institution Loans Retail Loans Non-banking Financial Institution Loans 36.6% Oversea Loans Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 6 The banking sector’s asset growth moderated in Q4 As of the end of 2020, total assets of the banking sector were 319.7 trillion RMB, up by 10.1% YOY; total liabilities were 293.1 trillion RMB, up 10.2% YOY. Asset Banking Sector Asset Growth YoY 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 Growth 30 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YoY (%) 25 Industry 9.1 10.8 11.0 12.0 11.5 20 average 15 Mega banks 8.2 10.4 10.4 11.3 10.9 10 Joint-stock 5 10.2 12.8 11.8 12.8 11.9 banks 0 City 8.5 8.3 10.0 11.7 10.2 banks (%) 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 Rural Banking Sector Mega Banks Joint-stock Banks financial 7.6 8.2 9.3 10.6 11.6 City Banks Rural Banks institutions Source: CBIRC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Source: CBIRC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 7 Loan demand in the real economy, particularly from small businesses, increased significantly amid COVID; with the pandemic largely under control, overall demand moderated in Q4 Loan Demand Index Published by PBOC 80 70 60 50 40 (%) Loan Demand Index Loan Demand Index: Manufacturing Loan Demand Index: Infrastructure Loan Demand Index: Large-scale Enterprise Loan Demand Index: Medium-scale Enterprise Loan Demand Index: Small-scale Enterprise Note: The loan demand index reflects surveyed bankers’ opinions on the change of overall loan demand. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 8 In 2020, mega banks increased their loans to micro and small enterprises (“MSE”) by almost 50% YoY, as overall loans to MSEs increased by over 30% YoY Loans to Small and Micro Enterprises (MSE) MSE loan growth 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 16 compared to Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 the previous quarter (%) Industry 3.17 7.60 9.37 7.51 3.43 average 8 Mega banks 3.06 15.19 13.59 10.69 2.45 Joint-stock 3.63 3.35 6.38 8.79 7.02 banks City banks 4.64 5.66 9.23 6.28 3.81 0 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 Rural banks 2.08 5.24 7.01 4.08 2.24 (Tril. RMB) Mega Banks Joint-stock Banks City Banks Rural Banks Note: MSE loans are defined by CBIRC as loans less than RMB 10 million Note: MSE loans are defined by CBIRC as loans less than RMB 10 million Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 9 New regulations saw growth of property development loans and mortgage loans slow down in Q4 Growth of Mortgage and Real Estate Development In December 2020, PBOC and CBIRC issued a new rule on controlling banks’ 40,000 20 Loans concentration risk in real estate loans. The new rule set up different real estate loan concentration limits for different kinds of banks. For example, large banks’ 15 limit for real estate-related loans is 40% of their loan book, within which, the limit for 20,000 mortgage loans is 32.5%. For medium- sized banks, the limits are 27.5% for total 10 real estate loans and 20% for mortgage. In general, the smaller the bank the lower the limit ratio. Currently, most commercial banks can meet these requirements. The few banks 0 5 that exceed the limits will have a 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 transitional period ranging from 2 to 4 (Bil.) (%) Mortgage years to bring their real estate portfolio within the limits. Real Estate Development Loans We believe this new rule will slow down real Growth Rate of Mortgage YOY (Right Axis) estate loan book growth in 2021, and banks Growth Rate of Real Estate Development Loans YOY (Right Axis) need to seek lending growth opportunities in other sectors. Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 In 2020 RMB deposits increased rapidly, which was positive for corporates and households’ liquidity management during the COVID period YoY Growth YoY Growth In January 2021,banking regulators Deposits Breakdown of from 2019 to from 2018 to issued a new policy on internet-based As of end of 2020 (Bil. RMB) Deposits (%) 2020 2019 retail deposit business. (%) (%) The new policy tightens the regulation on deposit pricing. It also confines Deposits of Households 92,599 43.56 13.89 13.54 regional banks’ internet-based deposit Deposits of Non- taking activities to their home regions. 66,018 31.06 10.89 5.75 financial Corporates Online deposit business can only be Deposits of conducted on banks’ proprietary on- Government 29,874 14.05 0.64 4.13 line platforms, and not third-party Departments & platforms. Organizations The policy requires banks to improve Fiscal Deposits 4,477 2.11 9.63 0.74 their asset-liability management and Deposits of Non-bank liquidity management related to 18,311 8.61 6.81 7.28 Financial Institutions online deposits and control their deposit costs within a reasonable Overseas Deposits 1,294 0.61 14.45 4.39 level. Total Deposits 212,572 100.00 10.21 8.65 This policy further confines regional banks’ activities to their home regions, Source: PBOC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2021 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. and reduces small banks’ potential liquidity risk related to high-cost internet-based retail deposits. 11 Contents Business Position Capital and Earnings Risk Position Funding & Liquidity Government Influence Industry Outlook Special Topic 1: Relationship between Bond Defaults and Bank Asset Quality Special Topic 2: Shadow Banking’s Impact on the Banking Sector Appendix: Related FI Research 12 The issuance of hybrid bonds and slower capital consumption led to a mild increase of capital adequacy ratios in Q4 Reported Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 22 CAR 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 (%) Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 20 Industry average 14.64 14.53 14.21 14.41 14.70 18 Mega banks 16.31 16.14 15.92 16.25 16.49 16 Joint-stock 14 13.42 13.44 12.92 13.30 13.60 banks 12 City banks 12.70 12.65 12.56 12.44 12.99 10 (%) Rural banks 13.13 12.81 12.23 12.11 12.37 Foreign bank 18.40 18.43 18.76 18.56 18.32 Industry Average Mega Banks subsidiaries Joint-stock Banks City Banks Rural Banks Foreign Bank Subsidiaries Source: CBIRC, collected and adjusted by S&P Global (China) Ratings.
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