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Metro Manila Office Briefing 3Q 2016 Metro Manila | Office Briefing

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Metro Manila Office Briefing 3Q 2016 Metro Manila | Office Briefing KMC KMCMAG SavillsGroup Research Metro Manila KMC MAG Group Metro Manila Office Briefing 3Q 2016 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Metro Manila Office Submarkets Future Stock (2019) DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2016-2019) CURRENT STOCK 2,023,329 sq m BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 1,188,447 sq m MAKATI CBD 862,352 sq m BAY AREA 781,019 sq m QUEZON CITY 745,988 sq m ORTIGAS CENTER 609,491 sq m ALABANG 442,901 sq m C5 CORRIDOR 400,860 sq m MCKINLEY 377,523 sq m MAKATI FRINGE 2 3Q 2016 Metro Manila GRAPH 1 ■ The market was relatively quiet in Metro Manila Stock & Vacancy with fewer supply additions due to several building completions postponed to later quarters. Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Stock In 3Q/2016, only 18,000 sq m of new office Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 6,000 12.0% supply was turned over in BGC. 5,000 10.0% ■ Occupier demand was still strong though, as the market recorded a net absorption of 24,900 sq 4,000 8.0% m which resulted with the vacancy rate to further drop to 2.7% in 3Q/2016. 3,000 6.0% '000 sq (GLA) m '000 ■ In 4Q/2016, supply additions should return as the 2,000 4.0% market is expected to introduce another 193,300 sq m of Grade A office space. Although we 1,000 2.0% expect office demand to continue to be robust, 0 0.0% we foresee a gradual increase in vacancies in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F the coming quarters with the completion of an Source: KMC Savills Research unprecedented new supply of 871,900 sq m in the next 12 months. GRAPH 2 Supply & Take-Up ■ Overall, despite tightening vacancies, average rents rose moderately by 3.4% YoY, a slight Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Supply slowdown from 4.4% YoY in 2Q/2016. However, Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Take-Up 900 Quezon City witnessed its first decline in 800 rental rates since 2010 due to the high level of availabilities in the area. 700 600 ■ Looking ahead, the expected new deliveries 500 over the next 12 months should put additional '000 sq (GLA) m '000 400 pressure on lease rates in Metro Manila as the vacancies are seen rising. 300 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Source: KMC Savills Research TABLE 1 Key Figures - Grade A Office 3Q 2016 Makati Ortigas BGC Alabang Quezon City Bay Area CBD Center Average net rental rate 1,010.8 889.6 643.7 617.4 696.0 699.2 (Php/sq m/month) Upper net rental rate 1,450.0 1,200.0 800.0 650.0 750.0 750.0 (Php/sq m/month) Vacancy rate (%) 1.2% 2.4% 0.5% 5.2% 9.7% 0.9% Current stock (sq m) 1,080,863 1,152,313 635,199 311,407 463,183 326,737 Development pipeline 107,584 871,016 110,789 298,083 317,836 535,615 2016-2019 (sq m) * Makati CBD includes Premium Offices kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Makati CBD GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Stock Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Supply Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Take-Up 1,400 14.0% 100 1,200 12.0% 80 1,000 10.0% 60 800 8.0% 40 600 6.0% 20 '000 sq m (GLA) '000 sq (GLA) m '000 400 4.0% 0 200 2.0% -20 0 0.0% -40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 5 GRAPH 6 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Makati CBD Rental Growth, YoY Makati CBD Premium and Grade A Office Rental Index 100 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160.0 30.0% 140.0 20.0% 80 120.0 10.0% 60 100.0 0.0% 40 80.0 -10.0% sq (GLA) m '000 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 60.0 -20.0% 20 40.0 -30.0% 0 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ With no additional supply coupled with the net take up of 9,858 sq m, the Makati CBD’s vacancy rate further pulled down to 1.2% in 3Q/2016. ■ Although vacancies continue to tighten, rental rates during the quarter have grown just steadily at 3.2% YoY. In addition, the country’s premier CBD still commands the highest average rental rate of Php 1,010.8 per sq m/month. ■ New office supply in Makati CBD will be scarce in the coming quarters with just the reopening of the Insular Life Makati building in 1Q/2017. As a result, we expect the vacancy rate to remain tight next quarter which would raise the likelihood of accelerating rental rates due to the limited available office stock. 4 3Q 2016 Bonifacio Global City GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Stock Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Supply Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Take-Up 1,800 18.0% 400 1,600 16.0% 350 1,400 14.0% 300 1,200 12.0% 250 1,000 10.0% 200 800 8.0% 150 '000sq m (GLA) '000 sq (GLA) m '000 600 6.0% 100 400 4.0% 50 200 2.0% 0 0 0.0% -50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 9 GRAPH 10 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Bonifacio Global City Rental Growth, YoY Bonifacio Global City Grade A Office Rental Index 450 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160.0 30.0% 400 140.0 20.0% 350 120.0 10.0% 300 250 100.0 0.0% 200 80.0 -10.0% '000sq m (GLA) 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 150 60.0 -20.0% 100 50 40.0 -30.0% 0 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ Although there was only 18,000 sq m of additional office space in 3Q/2016, demand for office space remained robust in BGC as the vacancy rate further dropped to 2.4%. ■ The average rental rate in BGC stood at Php 889.6 per sq m/month at the end of 3Q/2016. The healthy rental growth of 3.4% YoY and 0.9% QoQ was a slight uptick from 2Q/2016’s rental growth of 3.1% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. ■ Year to date, net absorption of 198,200 sq m has exceeded office completions of 170,400 sq m. With 40% of BGC’s incoming office space in the next 12 months already pre-leased, we still expect the strong demand to carry over to the next quarter. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 5 Metro Manila | Office Briefing Ortigas Center GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Ortigas Center Grade A Office Stock Ortigas Center Grade A Office Supply Ortigas Center Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Ortigas Center Grade A Office Take-Up 800 8.0% 180 160 700 7.0% 140 600 6.0% 120 500 5.0% 100 400 4.0% 80 60 '000 sq m (GLA) '000 sq (GLA) m '000 300 3.0% 40 200 2.0% 20 100 1.0% 0 0 0.0% -20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 13 GRAPH 14 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Ortigas Center Rental Growth, YoY Ortigas Center Grade A Office Rental Index 100 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160.0 30.0% 140.0 20.0% 80 120.0 10.0% 60 100.0 0.0% 40 80.0 -10.0% sq (GLA) m '000 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 60.0 -20.0% 20 40.0 -30.0% 0 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ With no additional supply during the quarter, vacancies further tightened to 0.5% in 3Q/2016 from 1.2% in 2Q/2016. With sustained occupier demand despite the limited available office supply, 4,384 sq m was further taken up. ■ With the low vacancy rate, the average rental rate further improved to Php 643.7 per sq m/month after posting modest growth of 3.1% YoY and 0.7% QoQ in 3Q/2016. ■ New supply in the coming quarters is expected to increase vacancies from its current level but will still be manageable as demand is still seen to be healthy. In 2017, only two office buildings will be completed which will add 67,400 sq m in Ortigas Center. 6 3Q 2016 Alabang GRAPH 15 GRAPH 16 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-Up Alabang Grade A Office Stock Alabang Grade A Office Supply Alabang Grade A Office Vacancy Rate Alabang Grade A Office Take-Up 600 30.0% 140 120 500 25.0% 100 400 20.0% 80 60 300 15.0% 40 '000sq m (GLA) '000 sq (GLA) m '000 200 10.0% 20 0 100 5.0% -20 0 0.0% -40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 17 GRAPH 18 Rental Performance Development Pipeline Alabang Rental Growth, YoY Alabang Grade A Office Rental Index 140 Metro Manila CBDs Grade A Office Rental Index 160.0 30.0% 120 140.0 20.0% 100 120.0 10.0% 80 100.0 0.0% 60 80.0 -10.0% '000sq m (GLA) 3Q 2007 = 100 3Q 2007 40 60.0 -20.0% 20 40.0 -30.0% 0 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ In 3Q/2016, there was an increase in the vacancy rate to 5.2% after occupancies declined in the Filinvest Three and Vector Two buildings during 3Q/2016.
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