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THE Perilsof SUCCESS THE Perils OF SUCCESS Polls put Democrats in the lead, but victories in 2006 mean it will be a tough fight to take over more statehouses. BY TIM STOREY tage,” he says. “If Democrats don’t score a boatload of t is hard to find a Democrat victories in congressional, who isn’t bullish about the Senate and state races, I’ll be party’s chances in legisla- shocked.” tive elections this fall. Then again, Cook admits IThey cite President Bush’s “the political pundit class has low job approval ratings and been so wrong about so much polling data indicating vot- in the past year” that anything ers prefer generic Democratic can happen. candidates to Republicans by more than 10 percent. A large SEATS UP IN 2008 majority of Americans think With only a small number of that the country is on the wrong governor races in 2008, legis- track, according to polls, so the latures are the main battlefield Democratic message of change for control of states. There may be a powerful rallying cry. are legislative elections in 44 However, the biggest challenge states with a total of 5,824 for Democrats may be their legislative seats up for grabs. success in 2006. That represents 79 percent Republican political strate- of the 7,382 total legislative gist Reed Galen agrees this seats in the United States. In year appears to favor Demo- addition, 78 legislative seats crats, conceding that “the are up in Puerto Rico, 20 in Republican brand is damaged American Samoa and all 15 goods right now.” But, he Senate seats in the U.S. Vir- adds, “a week is a lifetime in gin Islands. There are no leg- politics and three months is an islative elections this year in eternity.” Alabama, Louisiana, Mary- Anything can happen before Nov. 4, and Galen is optimistic. “They land, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. In Michigan and Minnesota, have to believe they can turn it around and work hard to make the race there are no senate elections, but all house seats are up. about local issues.” Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North In terms of legislative seats, there may be few easy targets left for Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Vir- Democrats after they scored big gains in the last election cycle. Demo- ginia elect governors this year. Most are not considered competitive, crats picked up more than 325 seats and 10 legislative chambers in with the exception of Missouri and Washington. University of Vir- 2006. They now hold just under 55 percent of all legislative seats. It is ginia political scientist Larry Sabato rates both as toss-ups. Headed the high mark for Democrats since Republicans crushed them in 1994 into 2008, Democrats control the governor’s mansion in 28 states and and brought partisan parity to legislatures for most of the past decade. Republicans in 22. In the 11 states up this year, Democrats hold six of Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report, agrees the the governors and Republicans five. outlook for additional Democratic gains is good. “I think optimism by Democrats is understandable because of the numbers—whether it’s PARTISAN LANDSCAPE fundraising, polling or projected turnout, Democrats hold a big advan- The Democratic advantage in governors is matched in legislatures. Tim Storey is NCSL’s elections expert. Democrats control both chambers in 23 states compared to 14 for SEPTEMBER 2008 STATE LEGIslATURES 15 STATE LEGISLATIVE PARTY CONTROL 2008 Republican Democrat Split Nonpartisan THE DENVER POST/GLENN ASASKAWA This year voters will decide on 5,824 legislative seats that are up for election. Republicans. In 12 states, party control is divided. (The Nebraska Legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral.) * The last time Democrats controlled more than 23 states was before the 1994 election, when Republicans wal- LEGISLATIVE BATTLEGROUNDS—StateVOTE 2008 loped Democrats by seizing the majority in 21 chambers. Currently, Democrats have a 57 to 39 edge in control of Republican majority H = House individual chambers. There are two legislative bodies that H Democrat majority S = Senate have an equal number of Republicans and Democrats— the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates. Both chambers with divided control B = Both History suggests that success for either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama will produce a coattail S B effect. Since the 1940 election of Franklin Roosevelt, the H B S party winning the presidency has gained legislative seats H H H in 11 of the 17 elections. That trend did not hold in 2004 S H H H when Republicans suffered a net loss of 25 seats despite S George Bush’s reelection. On average, the party that wins B the White House adds more than 125 legislative seats to H B its column. H Going into this election, there are 3,993 Democratic legislators—almost 55 percent of all seats held by the two * major parties. There are 3,310 Republican legislators—45 percent of the total. Only 21 legislators are independent or STATE GOVERNMENT PARTY CONTROL 2008 from other parties. Republican ON THE BUBBLE Democrat At least 28 of the 84 legislative chambers with elec- Split tions this year can be called battlegrounds with either party having a chance to emerge with a majority. At the Nonpartisan top of the list are the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates, which are tied. In nine other chambers (Alaska Senate, Maine Senate, Montana Senate, Nevada Senate, New York Senate, Indiana House, Montana House, Oregon House, and Pennsylvania House) a shift of only one seat would change the majority. The list of key states that are on the bubble may be most remarkable because it includes several of the biggest states where legislative control could have a major impact on congressional redistricting of large U.S. House delega- tions in 2011. The house in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania * and Texas, along with the New York Senate, are all close *The New Progressive Party holds the majority in the Puerto Rico House and Senate. The Popular Democratic enough to be in play. Party is in the minority. The Virgin Islands has a unicameral Senate with a coalition of three parties in the majority. The Democratic Party is in the minority, though some Democratic members are part of the majority coalition. Republicans have only a one-seat majority in the New 16 STATE LEGIslATURES SEPTEMBER 2008 SEATS UP FOR ELECTION 2008 ing control appear to be the Delaware House, Montana House, Nevada Senate, New York SENATE HOUSE OR ASSEMBLY Senate, Ohio House, and Wisconsin Assem- Alaska 10 40 bly. None of these will be easy. Michael Arizona 30 60 Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Arkansas 18 100 Legislative Campaign Committee, is taking California 20 80 nothing for granted. “We’re excited about Colorado 17 65 our chances for gains this year, but our candi- Connecticut 36 151 dates still have to get out and work hard.” Delaware 11 41 Florida 20 120 Georgia 56 180 TURNOUT Hawaii 12 51 The fate of legislative races in 2008 may Idaho 35 70 hinge on which presidential campaign wins Illinois 39 118 the “ground game,” also known as get-out- Indiana 25 100 the-vote. Getting voters to the polls is always Iowa 25 100 a vital exercise and many signs point to 2008 Kansas 40 125 voter turnout breaking all records. Kentucky 19 100 Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Maine 35 151 Annenberg Public Policy Center at the Uni- Massachusetts 40 160 versity of Pennsylvania, says “if the Obama Michigan 110 campaign successfully mobilizes younger Minnesota 134 voters, that will be the single biggest new Missouri 17 163 factor in this election and could have a huge Montana 25 100 impact on state legislative races.” Nebraska* 25 Because of hotly contested primaries, par- Nevada 10 42 THE DENVER POST/HYOUNG CHANG New Hampshire 24 400 ticularly on the Democratic side, voter partic- New Mexico 42 70 Voters line up to cast their ballots in ipation in primaries (not including caucuses) New York 62 150 2006. The get-out-the-vote effort will be shattered previous high marks. According to North Carolina 50 120 crucial to both parties, and 2008 is shap- political researcher Rhodes Cook, who pub- North Dakota 23 46 ing up as record breaking election in lishes the Rhodes Cook Letter, more than 58 Ohio 16 99 terms of turnout. million voters showed up to cast ballots in Oklahoma 24 101 the 2008 primaries representing a 65 per- Oregon 15 60 York Senate after Democrats won a special cent increase from the previous high of 35 Pennsylvania 25 203 election earlier this year. Democrats have not million in 1988. Voter registration numbers Rhode Island 38 75 controlled the Empire State Senate since the also surged because of enthusiasm about the South Carolina 46 124 1966 election and have had the majority for primaries and caucuses, especially among South Dakota 35 70 only 14 of the past 100 years. It would be a Democrats who added 1 million new voters Tennessee 16 99 big prize for Democrats. in the 37 states that register by party. Texas 15 150 But many of the closest battleground cham- Voters under 30 showed up in dramatic Utah 14 75 bers will have Democrats on the defensive. numbers for the 2008 primaries and caucuses. Vermont 30 150 Republican strategists are especially hope- According to The Center for Information & Washington 25 98 West Virginia 17 100 ful about the GOP’s prospects in the Indi- Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, Wisconsin 16 99 ana House, Maine Senate, Michigan House, more than 6 million voters under the age of Wyoming 15 60 Pennsylvania House, Tennessee House and 30 participated in the presidential nominating A.
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