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Is the Euro Sustainable – and What If Not?

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Is the Euro Sustainable – and What If Not? IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – AND WHAT IF NOT? MARCH 14, 2018 ESMT BERLIN, GERMANY IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN Considerable actions at the EU level and by the European Central Bank have been tak- en to make the Eurozone economically resilient. While the economic risks may have been banned, electoral events in recent years, including the Brexit vote, have made it clear that the euro system might come under attack from other directions. The probability of such political shocks occuring might have diminished in recent years, but the possibility of such events to threaten the system cannot be completely excluded. It is therefore important to understand the adverse impacts that such events can entail. This high-level international conference addresses the question of political resilience, the devastating economic experi- ences from comparable events in the past, and actions and remedies that should be taken in case such events occur in the future. ORGANIZERS KAI A. KONRAD JÖRG ROCHOLL received his PhD from the Ludwig received a PhD in finance and economics Maximilian University of Munich (1990). from Columbia Business School in New He was a professor of public economics York (2004). He is president of ESMT Ber- at the Freie Universität Berlin (until 2009). lin (since 2011), professor and EY Chair in He is director at the Max Planck Institute Governance and Compliance (since 2010). for Tax Law and Public Finance in Munich He is a member of the Economic Advisory (since 2011) and a distinguished affili- Board to the German Ministry of Finance ate professor at ESMT Berlin. He was the (since 2011). chairman of the Council of Scientific Ad- visors to the German Ministry of Finance (2011–2014). 1 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN WLAN NETWORK: ESMT-GUEST USER: EUROZONE PASSWORD: 140318ESMT 2 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN PROGRAM 10:15 REGISTRATION 10:45 WELCOME AND OPENING Kai A. Konrad, MPI for Tax Law and Public Finance Jörg Rocholl, ESMT Berlin 11:00 SESSION I - KEYNOTES Stabilizing the euro: Where do we stand? Christoph M. Schmidt, RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Political risk: A view from public opinion research Bruce Stokes, Pew Research Center 12:15 LUNCH 13:30 SESSION II - KEYNOTE How to cope with target imbalances Hans-Werner Sinn, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the LMU Munich 14:30 PANEL I - WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM HISTORY? MODERATOR: Philip Plickert, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Luca Einaudi The Latin Monetary Union Albrecht Ritschl How the aftermath of a Eurozone breakup could look like if history is any guide Jeromin Zettelmeyer The Argentinian disaster/experience 16:00 COFFEE BREAK 16:30 PANEL II - THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE MODERATOR: Ursula Weidenfeld, Economics Journalist Clemens Fuest [Art 50] ways to leave the euro – does the Eurozone need an exit clause? Costas Lapavitsas How and why did Greece stay in the EMU? Xavier Ragot Saving the Eurozone. Why and how? 18:00 CLOSING Kai A. Konrad, MPI for Tax Law and Public Finance Jörg Rocholl, ESMT Berlin 18:15 DRINKS RECEPTION 3 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN SESSION I 11:00-12:15 KEYNOTE STABILIZING THE EURO: WHERE DO WE STAND? Christoph M. Schmidt In its coalition agreement, the prospective new grand coalition German government is providing strong indications that Euro- pean issues will take center stage on its political agenda. In principle, this is good news for European integration. Yet, the quality of the actual steps taken under this heading will be decisive for its success. Ultimately, only an incentive-compatible European architecture will constitute a Christoph M. Schmidt sustainable engine of peace and prosper- received a PhD from Princeton University ity. The key to ascertaining this stable ar- (1991) and obtained his habilitation from chitecture will be the adamant insistence the University of Munich (1995). He was a on a healthy balance between principles professor at the University of Heidelberg and pragmatism. The current political (until 2002) and then became a professor discourse on reforming the Eurozone ar- of economics and econometrics at Ruhr chitecture is highly polyphonic, though, University Bochum. He is president of the and therefore offers little guidance. In the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Re- reality of political developments, this ar- search (since 2002) and is serving as chitecture has been transformed in the member (since 2009) and chairman (since direction of the concept proposed by the 2013) of the German Council of Economic GCEE as “Maastricht 2.0.” By contrast, Experts (GCEE). prominent political rhetoric has empha- sized quite different themes, evidenced for instance by the Five Presidents’ Re- port. This presentation aims at sorting out this variegated argumentative spectrum. 4 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF IT NOT? ESMT BERLIN SESSION I 11:00-12:15 KEYNOTE POLITICAL RISK: A VIEW FROM PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Bruce Stokes The reputation of the European Union and Europeans’ commitment to the European Project suffered in the wake of the global financial crisis a decade ago, especially in southern Europe. The economic down- turn only reinforced Europeans’ frustra- tion with Brussels’ inefficiency and intru- siveness. Nevertheless, support for the euro remained strong in most euro area countries, with the exception of Italy. And Bruce Stokes Europeans also continued to believe that is director of global economic attitudes the European Project had contributed to at the Pew Research Center, where he as- peace in Europe, reaffirming the founding sesses public views about economic con- ideals of the European Community. The ditions, foreign policy, and values. He is refugee crisis and the perceived mishan- also a non-resident fellow at the German dling of this issue have led to new public Marshall Fund and an associate fellow at criticism of the EU. This challenge to Euro- Chatham House. He is the former interna- pean solidarity has fueled the rise of right- tional economics correspondent for the wing populist parties, whose adherents National Journal, a former senior trans- are often Euroskeptical. At the same time, atlantic fellow at the German Marshall while in none of the euro area countries Fund, and a former senior fellow at the does the population want to leave the EU, Council on Foreign Relations, where he is strong majorities now express a desire for a member. Stokes is author of the recent more direct voting through referenda on Pew Research Center studies: U.S. Image issues of major national importance, in- Suffers as Publics Around the World Ques- cluding on continued participation in the tion Trump’s Leadership; Post Brexit, Euro- European Project. Bruce Stokes, director peans More Favorable Toward EU; Global- of global economic attitudes at the Pew ly, Broad Support for Representative and Research Center, will discuss trends in Direct Democracy. Stokes is a graduate of European public views in the wake of the Georgetown University’s School of For- euro crisis based on Pew’s annual survey eign Service and Johns Hopkins Univer- of European countries. sity’s School for Advanced International Studies. 5 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN SESSION II 13:30-14:30 KEYNOTE HOW TO COPE WITH TARGET IMBALANCES Hans-Werner Sinn In recent years, the target balances of the euro countries, which represent public international credit drawn from the Eu- rosystem, have risen to unprecedented levels. The lecture will present their ori- gins and alternative ways of coping with them while trying to draw lessons from alternative currency systems. Hans-Werner Sinn obtained a doctorate (1978) and his ha- bilitation (1983) from the University of Mannheim. He was appointed professor of economics and public finance at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Mu- nich (1984) and president of the ifo In- stitute in Munich (1999), retaining both titles until his retirement (2016). He founded and governed the Center for Economic Studies and the international CESifo Research Network. 6 IS THE EURO SUSTAINABLE – MARCH 14, 2018 AND WHAT IF NOT? ESMT BERLIN PANEL I 14:30-16:00 WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM HISTORY? THE LATIN MONETARY UNION The Latin Monetary Union (LMU 1865– 1926) was formed between France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, and Greece, initially Luca Einaudi with the view to facilitate trade. However, is an economist and a historian. He holds a during its first five years of existence, the PhD in economic history from the Univer- LMU acquired a more ambitious geopo- sity of Cambridge, is a research associate litical role, with an attempted expansion of the Centre for History and Economics, throughout Europe. The defeat of France Cambridge, and was a visiting professor at in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 and the Institut de Sciences Politiques in Paris the slow movement from its bimetallist and a visiting fellow at the University of base (gold and silver on an equal footing Princeton and at Harvard University. He is with a monetary base) toward a growing currently a general director in the Depart- international gold standard stalled the ment for Economic Policy and Planning LMU’s expansion. of the Italian Prime Minister’s Office. He The management of the LMU proved that was an economic advisor to Prime Minis- the initial agreement was very incom- ter Romano Prodi in 1998, a member of plete. Continuous negotiations and adap- the Cabinet of the Minister for the Gov- tation of rules were necessary to maintain ernmental Programme in 2006–2008 and the monetary union, backed by the threat a senior economist in the Italian G8/G20 of the cost of dissolution for weaker office in 2008–2009.
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