Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, February 14

Headlines: • U.S. Jewish Group Sends Delegation to Saudi Arabia • Senior Saudi Diplomat: ‘Positive Elements’ in Trump Peace Plan • Settlers to Netanyahu: If You Want Our Vote, Apply Sovereignty Now • Liberman Won’t Rule Out a Coalition with Labor-Gesher-Meretz • Blue and White Maintains Lead Over , Election Poll Shows • No IDF Representatives on Annexation Mapping Team • Netanyahu said to Zuckerberg that FB is Undermining his Campaign • Congresswoman Calls AIPAC a ‘Hate Group’ After it Attacks Her in Ad

Commentary: • Post: “Why I Met with Mahmoud Abbas” − By Ehud Olmert, former Prime Minister of • Ha’aretz: “A 4th Election is Growing More Likely by the Day” − By Yossi Verter

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 14, 2020 Times of Israel In First, US Jewish Group Sends Delegation to Saudi Arabia A delegation of members of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations visited Saudi Arabia this week, a first for the umbrella body for US Jews, and a move believed to be the first official visit to the kingdom by an American Jewish organization since 1993. The visit included meetings with senior Saudi officials as well as with Mohammed al-Issa, the secretary- general of the Muslim World League who recently led a delegation to Auschwitz. Al-Issa is seen as close to Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince. The visit signals what could be an increasing warmness between some mainstream US Jewish groups and Saudi Arabia.

Times of Israel Senior Saudi Diplomat: ‘Positive Elements’ in Trump Peace Plan A top Saudi diplomat on Thursday said there were “positive elements” in the Trump administration’s peace plan that could be the basis of renewed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. “There are positive elements in Trump’s peace plan,” Adel Al-Jubeir, the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, said during a visit to Romania. “These elements may establish the basis for negotiation between the two sides.” See also, “Poll: 94% of Palestinians reject Trump plan” (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Settlers to Netanyahu: If You Want Our Vote, Apply Sovereignty Settlers and right-wing activists warned Prime Minister that he would lose votes for the March 2 election unless he applied sovereignty to the West Bank settlements now. "If you want the support of the Right – act like you are the leader of the Right,” Regional Council head Yossi Dagan said as he addressed a rally of several thousand that was held on the street outside Netanyahu’s Jerusalem residence. The crowd chanted “sovereignty now” and sang, “the Jewish people live.” At the rally, settles urged Netanyahu to ignore Washington and focus on his voters at home. See also, “In Jerusalem, settlement leaders protest Netanyahu annexation delay” (Times of Israel)

Channel 12 News Liberman Won’t Rule Out a Coalition with Labor-Gesher-Meretz Chairman Avigdor Liberman said this morning in an interview to that he would not rule out membership in a coalition alongside Labor-Gesher-Meretz, provided an agreement was reached on government guidelines. “I sat in a government with Amir Peretz and I didn’t have any problem getting along. It all depends on the government guidelines,” he said. Liberman also fiercely attacked Netanyahu personally, saying: “More than half of the Likud faction is dreaming of electing a new chairman. They’re dreaming about the day that this nightmare ends.” Liberman went on to say that that he could not foresee Blue and White and the Likud cooperating in the next , adding: “It’s clear that a unity government isn’t going to be formed.” See also, “Liberman appears to drop unity coalition demand, is willing to partner with left” (Times of Israel) 2

Ha’aretz Blue White Maintains Lead Over Likud, Election Poll Shows Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan party is projected to receive 35 Knesset seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud is lagging slightly behind with 33 seats in the run-up to Israel's March 2 general election, a poll released on Thursday by Channel 12 News showed. The number of Knesset seats each political bloc would control remained unchanged from previous polls that showed the center-left bloc gaining ground over the right.

Walla News No IDF Representatives on Annexation Mapping Team The team that is working on mapping out the territories in the West Bank that Israel is to annex in keeping with US President ’s plan does not include a single IDF representative. In response to a question, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement saying that the mapping team for the Jordan Valley and for the settlements consists of Minister Yariv Levin and Israeli Ambassador to Washington Ron Dermer, and is to be overseen by Prime Minister’s Office Director General Ronen Peretz. The National Security Council has a representative on the team as well. During the Oslo process in the 1990s, including in Netanyahu’s first government, the Planning Directorate of the IDF played a central role in the Israeli team’s work with the Palestinian and American teams.

Times of Israel PM said to Zuckerberg that FB is Undermining his Campaign Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly phoned Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday to complain that the social media giant was taking action against his supporters in Israel’s recent elections. Citing sources familiar with the phone call, reported that Netanyahu called Zuckerberg to ask that he “ensure the fairness of the election and to act reasonably and fairly.” “We constantly speak to leaders all around the world and Mark reiterated that we are an open platform for all ideas,” a Facebook spokesperson said in an emailed statement. The company has sparred with Netanyahu in the past. Days before last September’s elections, Facebook temporarily suspended a chatbot operated by Netanyahu’s official account for saying Arab Israeli lawmakers “want to annihilate us all,” a violation of its hate speech policies. See also, “Meet the Judges Who Will Try Netanyahu for Bribery, Fraud and Breach of Trust” (Ha’aretz)

JTA Congresswoman Calls AIPAC a Hate Group After it Attacks Her A Minnesota congresswoman called AIPAC a “hate group” inciting against her after the Israel lobby featured her in an attack ad. “AIPAC claims to be a bipartisan organization, but its use of hate speech actually makes it a hate group,” US Rep. Betty McCollum, a Democrat, said Wednesday in a statement. “By weaponizing anti-Semitism and hate to silence debate, AIPAC is taunting Democrats and mocking our core values.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee declined to comment. The lobby removed and apologized last week for at least two Facebook ads that slammed “radical” Democrats in Congress, and altered an online petition that said Israel’s harshest critics in Congress pose a threat “maybe more sinister” than ISIS and other terror groups. “This is not a call to action, it is incitement,” McCollum said.

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Jerusalem Post – February 14, 2020 Why I Met with Mahmoud Abbas Netanyahu never really planned to implement Trump’s peace plan. By EHUD OLMERT • Last week, many people asked me why I decided that meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, was the right thing to do. I met with him following my trip to the United States, during which I expected to hear the official Palestinian stance regarding President Donald Trump’s peace “Deal of the Century” between Israel and the Palestinians. • Admittedly, until very recently, the view most commonly held in Israel and around the world was that Trump’s “Deal of the Century” was really just a pact between Israel and the US. The public gala that took place in the East Room of the White House, starring Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, featured only two countries: Israel and the US. This impression is, however, not just misleading, but could potentially be disastrous. (…) • Now that the initial enthusiasm from the glamorous ball at the White House has dissipated a little, an unsolved mystery still remains: How does the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians fit into this exciting scenario? And are the talks to implement Trump’s ideas actually on our agenda? Does anyone even believe that actual negotiations will take place? • Netanyahu never really planned to implement Trump’s peace plan. This was just another one of his famous stunts. From his point of view, why should we make peace with the Palestinians if instead we can just unilaterally annex the Jordan Valley and thereafter be able to apply Israeli law to all of the settlements in Judea and Samaria – and take control of the rest of the land that theoretically belonged to the PA. • According to Bibi, this should put a stop to terrorist attacks and would bring about a period of calm. The Palestinian problem would just disappear from our lives. It turns out, however, that an administration that feels a deep responsibility to Israel is not willing to get carried away with the prime minister’s antics. Netanyahu and his posse still hold out hope that the American president will tear up his “Deal of the Century” and accept Israel’s unilateral annexation, which is likely to fan the flames of terror and even undermine the shaky peace we have with Jordan and Egypt. (…) • Apparently, the second section of the deal, which states that there should be two states for two nations, was not just an empty slogan, but a requirement that the US thinks should be the foundation of the long-awaited deal. Be that as it may, Netanyahu is not ready to cross this line. In fact, he never intended that this agreement would actually be implemented. He would never agree to making east Jerusalem the capital of a Palestinian state. • I have no complaints about Naftali Bennett, Rafi Peretz and Bezalel Smotrich – at least they say what they really believe regarding negotiations with the Palestinians. They openly claim that they’re not willing to give up one inch of the Land of Israel.

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• Netanyahu, on the other hand, is happy to say one thing when he actually believes the opposite. He is well aware that if he publicly expresses his support for the Trump plan, including recognizing a Palestinian state with sovereignty over most of the West Bank, he will lose the support of the Right bloc, which will eliminate any chance he has at being reelected. • In the end, it appears that the person who everyone thought was the Trump deal’s biggest supporter is in actuality its most staunch opponent. • Under these circumstances, the only path Netanyahu can see available to him is to lie and disseminate falsehoods about his opponents – anyone who has enough integrity to reveal his actual beliefs. • Twenty-five years ago, Netanyahu was the source of the incitement against Yitzhak Rabin, which led to an atmosphere of hatred, angry protests and perhaps to the great tragedy that shocked the Israeli people to its core. • I personally am not willing to give in to the brutal violence carried out by Netanyahu and his gang of thugs. • I truly believe that it is in Israel’s best interest to separate ourselves from the Palestinians and agree to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. It’s clear that a large portion of Israelis wish to end Israeli control over millions of Palestinians, who are not able to live freely or enjoy civil rights in the country where they reside. • In order to reach such a status, the first thing we need to do is sit down at the table and carry out true dialogue. The Trump deal is not a balanced agreement and it cannot be used as a basis for negotiations. The plan does, however, include a number of positive elements that, if addressed properly, could lead to a historical settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. • I was convinced that the necessary step was to sit down and talk with Abbas, and so that is what I did. There are huge gaps between our desires and outlooks, but if they were smaller, we would have reached an understanding with the Palestinians 12 years ago. Today, in the absence of an agreement, the best course of action is still to engage in dialogue. All Netanyahu is interested in is unilateral annexation – no matter how high the price in our blood may be. I think otherwise. • I do not currently hold any public office and I do not profess to represent any political group. I am not in contact with Blue and White leader Benny Gantz or his partners in the Blue and White leadership. But I will not let the verbal violence and incitement coming from Netanyahu, Culture and Sports Minister Miri Regev and Smotrich prevent me from expressing my opinions and acting in a way that befits a person living in a democratic and tolerant nation. The writer was the 12th prime minister of Israel.

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Ha’aretz – February 14, 2020 A 4th Election Is Growing More Likely by the Day, but Israelis Don't Care Both the public and Netanyahu, who would gain another six months in his Balfour St. digs, seem almost resigned to the possibility of yet another election round By Yossi Verter • The Israeli public is starting to view a general election as a chronic illness. You just live with it, despite the discomfort. No one is rattled by the arrival of yet another postcard with details of their polling place in the mailbox; certainly no one is prompted to take to the streets or city square in protest. The possibility, now being mooted, of a fourth election, produces a generic shrug. Life as an emoji. • In focus groups, which are frequently convened at pollsters’ offices, 70 percent of the interviewees say they are skeptical that the March 2 election will produce a clear-cut decision that can break the vicious circle. What’s usually heard is anger at the method, at the elected representatives, at the system. But no change has yet been registered in voter tendencies. • All in all, we’re in a rerun of the previous election, with the necessary adjustments: Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett are engaging in mudslinging on the hilltops of the West Bank (the latter this time as defense minister, compelled to taste the stew that he himself once served up to his two predecessors, and Moshe Ya’alon). • Ayman Odeh is challenging Benny Gantz, who, very late is now dissociating himself from the despicable notion of transferring the Triangle of Arab communities in the country’s center to Palestinian sovereignty, as proposed in the Trump plan. Odeh’s declaration that the Joint List, which he heads, “will not support” a government in which Lieberman is a member was not accidental. It leaves open the possibility of abstaining (or, more likely, being absent from the Knesset plenum), if the Kahol Lavan bloc succeeds in cobbling together a “Jewish majority” (the offensive notion that would make possible the formation of a minority government). • Still, our best bet is to treat all the declarations, conditions and self-snafus as election spin. At 10 P.M. on March 2, the game will begin again. The Joint List can serve as a parable: Despite all its inherent reservations about supporting, even passively, a government in which Lieberman serves, its highest and irrevocable imperative is to get Netanyahu out of office. In the end, that’s what will determine its behavior. Between the little Satan as a minister in a Gantz government, and the big Satan as prime minister for another term, the choice is self- evident. • The most significant event this week, one that is not subject to interpretations and speculations, was the selection of the three judges who will hear Cases 1000, 2000 and 4000, in each of which the prime minister is a defendant. What was for years considered a delusion and wishful thinking of leftists and anti-Bibists has assumed concrete form and is taking shape before our eyes as a material entity. There will be a trial. It will start whenever it starts. Netanyahu will sit in the dock alongside his partners in the indictments and will be asked to state whether he pleads guilty or not guilty to the charges against him: bribery, fraud, breach of trust 6

Bringing them all home • This past December, when Netanyahu was competing for the Likud leadership, he rushed in a frenzy from one meeting to the next. Five or six meetings a day. The energy he radiated was impressive by any standard, not only for a person of 70-plus. This week he returned to the roads and the halls. But the energy seems to be diminished – only two meetings an evening (maybe he considers the general election less important than eliminating Gideon Sa’ar as a competitor). In some meetings, he paces around on the stage, in others he speaks sitting down. He suddenly looks like someone his age. • The practical benefit to be derived from these events, which are broadcast on his Facebook account, is dubious. All the cities he visits are painted in Likud colors: Beit She’an, Ma’aleh Adumim, Nahariya, Hadera, Carmiel, Lod, Bat Yam, Ma’alot. The audience is always the same – mainly party members, filled with love, awash with admiration. The most pious of the convinced. • It looks like a closed-circuit exercise. In theory, these troops are supposed to spur their neighbors to snap out of their apathy and raise Likud’s floundering voting percentage. But it’s not these meetings that will do the trick the third time. The spurring-on of the Likud folks is not reflected in the polls, nor is a broadening of the voter base or the return home of 251,000 people who turned their backs on him last September. Those are the true tasks. The situation is making the Likud MKs and cabinet ministers who accompany Netanyahu to the events wonder whether the premier is already in the midst of his next party leadership contest and is simply looking for shortcuts. • A fourth election this coming September will require a new primary in Likud. This time also for the Knesset slate. Which is why many of current Likud MKs are showing up at the meetings. Not only to ply the leader with gestures of love and endless esteem. The main reason is to generate utilitarian visibility among the base. • The closer we get to March 2, the more likely it seems that we’re headed for round four rather than for the formation of a government. In the absence of a unity government headed by Netanyahu (which has zero probability) or a right-wing-Haredi coalition without Lieberman (ditto), another election is his preferred alternative. • It would deliver another half a year at least in office, with all the perks of Balfour Street living. And, more important, a defendant with the status of prime minister when he stands before the honorable court and confronts the state prosecution over possible negotiation for a plea bargain. Elementary for him.

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