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Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 AUGUST–15 NOVEMBER 2017

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Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 AUGUST–15 NOVEMBER 2017 Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 AUGUST–15 NOVEMBER 2017 COMPILED BY PAUL KAROLYI This update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and Israel. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day. JPS Chronologies are archived on the JPS website at www.palestine-studies.org. Highlights of the Quarter: Regional events figure heavily in developments this quarter as the Saudi Arabian crown prince steps out of the shadows of secret meetings with Israeli and U.S. officials; Lebanese PM Saad Hariri announces his resignation under mysterious circumstances in Riyadh; and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman summons Palestinian Authority (PA) pres. Mahmoud Abbas to the Saudi capital just 2 days later. These actions come soon after reps. from Hamas and Fatah sign a new reconciliation agreement in Cairo, prompting Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to threaten to upend U.S. pres. Donald Trump’s peace initiative. Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition continue to quarrel internally over settlement growth and annexation. They also continue their crackdown on the Israeli opposition, Palestinian citizens of Israel, and supporters of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement. Earlier in the quarter, Trump asks the Palestinians to delay unilateral moves at international forums while he puts together a plan for restarting Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI other country and organizational leaders, CONFLICT but they failed to produce anything concrete. ’ U.S. pres. Donald Trump continued work Jared Kushner, the president s son-in-law and on a peace initiative this quarter, without any his senior advisor, along with Dep. National resolution to lingering uncertainties on key Security Advisor Dina Powell and Special issues (e.g., whether the U.S. should move its Representative for International Negotiations embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; see JPS 46 [4] Jason Greenblatt, made an unannounced visit to and 47 [1]). He and his negotiating team met Saudi Arabia on 10/25–28. The White House with Israeli and Palestinian officials, as well as declined to disclose with whom Kushner met Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLVII, No. 2 (Winter 2018), p. 104, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2018 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Reprints and Permissions web page, http://www.ucpress.edu/journals.php?p=reprints. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/jps.2018.47.2.104. 104 || Journal of Palestine Studies Update on Conflict and Diplomacy but media reports indicate he held talks with negotiating team consistently defended Israel’s Prince Mohammad, who had recently had installation of cameras and checkpoints under several Saudi ministers and 11 princes arrested, the guise of security at Haram al-Sharif in presumably to consolidate his power, though he 7/2017 (see JPS 47 [1]), it was clear that the claimed to be fighting corruption. Shortly Trump admin. was going to have to rebuild afterward, Lebanon’s PM Hariri visited the relationships in Ramallah before moving kingdom and announced his resignation. Two forward on peace talks. days later, Prince Mohammad summoned PA Their first opportunity to do so was set for pres. Abbas (see “Regional Affairs” below) in 8/24, when Kushner was scheduled to visit what some analysts viewed as efforts to derail Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories the Hamas-Fatah unity deal and to further (oPt). In the lead-up to Kushner’s trip, some marginalize Iran. PA officials aired their skepticism publicly. After Palestinian support for Trump’sefforts Abbas reportedly told a delegation from the began to waver last quarter (see JPS 47 [1]), Israeli leftist party Meretz that he couldn’t the Palestinians shifted their focus almost understand the Trump admin.’s conduct (8/20). entirely to internal and regional issues (see “I have met with Trump envoys about 20 times “Intra-Palestinian Dynamics” and “Regional since the beginning of his term as pres. of the Affairs” below). Meanwhile, the Israeli govt. U.S. [in 1/2017],” he said. “Every time, they dealt with internal issues of its own, including repeatedly stressed to me how much they an increasingly acrimonious debate over: a believe and are committed to a 2-state solution bill that would grant Israeli sovereignty to and a halt to construction in the settlements. settlements ringing East Jerusalem, effectively I have pleaded with them to say the same annexing them into Israel, and settlement thing to Netanyahu, but they refrained. They growth, which put Netanyahu at odds with the said they would consider it but then they didn’t ultranationalists in his own ruling coalition. get back to me.” PLO Executive Comm. mbr. Ahmad Majdalani then clarified (8/22) that THE TRUMP INITIATIVE the Palestinians brought up those 2 key issues As the quarter opened, the Trump peace during a meeting in 6/2017 (see JPS 47 [1]). initiative was all but stalled. Trump maintained “Since then we haven’t heard from them,” he he was still eager to make “the ultimate deal,” as said. “We hope they bring clear answers this he referred to the prospect of a comprehensive time. If not, then the peace process cannot be peace agreement between Israel and the resumed because we cannot negotiate from Palestinians, but he rarely brought the subject scratch.” up of his own accord. Instead, he focused on The day before Kushner arrived in Israel, a confronting North Korea over its nuclear U.S. State Dept. spokesperson responded (8/23) program and overhauling the U.S. health-care to the Palestinians’ complaints. “We are not and tax systems. The Israelis, led by Netanyahu, going to state what the outcome has to be,” still supported Trump’s efforts, but were more she said, addressing the open question of concerned with countering the alleged Iranian Trump’s support for a 2-state solution. “It has threat as well as with their own internal issues. to be workable to both sides. And I think, really, The Palestinians were the least enthusiastic of that’s the best view as to not really bias one all parties. After the U.S. Middle East side over the other, to make sure that they can Winter 2018 || 105 Update on Conflict and Diplomacy work through it.” Kushner was apparently that the subject did come up, but made no more reassuring in his meeting with Abbas on comments on the nature of the discussion. 8/24. “We know that this [U.S.] delegation is Ahead of the UNGA, Trump and his aides working for peace, and we are working with it,” lowered expectations for their peace initiative Abbas said (8/24). “We know that things are and directed the focus to the implementation difficult and complicated, but there is nothing of the 7/14/2015 Iran nuclear deal (see “Iran” impossible with good efforts.” The meeting below). “Achieving peace between the Israelis was “productive,” according to a PA statement and the Palestinians remains one of the (8/24). “Both sides agreed to continue with president’s highest priorities, but the UN the U.S.-led conversations as the best way to meetings will primarily focus on other issues reach a comprehensive peace deal.” and serve as check-in opportunities,” a senior The Kushner meeting established the U.S. official said (9/16). The Palestinians, dynamic that prevailed through the end of apparently content with the promised time the quarter. Amid a spate of rumors and frame and occupied with their own national unconfirmed reports, Israel Hayom reported reconciliation process (see “Intra-Palestinian (8/27) that Kushner pledged the Trump Dynamics” below), refrained from calling for admin. would present its peace plan, clarity from the Trump admin. on settlements including positions on all final status issues, and the 2-state solution. Netanyahu, for his within 3–4 mos. in exchange for the part, was eager to redirect the discussion as well. Palestinians indefinitely postponing their In New York, Trump met first with pursuit of statehood recognition in the Netanyahu on 9/18. “Most people would say international arena. Abbas, whose deputies there is no chance whatsoever” to reach a were threatening to resume that very strategy, peace agreement, Trump said, at a joint press reportedly agreed contingent upon Trump conference. “I actually think that with the personally backing Kushner’spledge. ability of Bibi, and frankly with the other side, According to an unnamed Palestinian official, Ireallythinkwehaveachance.” After the Kushner and Abbas sealed the deal by meeting, the White House released (9/18) a agreeing to arrange a meeting between the statement saying that the pair discussed their 2 presidents on the sidelines of the United “continuing efforts to achieve an enduring Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, the New York on 9/2017. optimism in the region about peace, and With the Palestinians mollified, the Trump expanding economic opportunities to admin. turned back its attention to the Israelis. improve conditions for peace.” No further By the end of 8/2017, U.S. and Israeli officials details were disclosed. resumed talks on Trump’spledgetomovethe Trump’s meeting with Abbas was potentially U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to more critical, since Abbas was reportedly Jerusalem (Times of Israel,8/28;seeJPS 46 [4] hoping for the U.S. president’s personal and 47 [1] for background on Trump’s commitment to the pledge Kushner had made shifting position on the embassy move).
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