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Namibia Swaziland COUNTRY REPORT Namibia Swaziland 1st quarter 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (US) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (US) SilverPlatter (US) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1356-4218 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Namibia 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 7 Outlook for 1998-99 10 Review 10 The political scene 13 Economic policy 15 The economy 17 Finance 18 Health 18 Agriculture and fishing 20 Mining and energy 22 Industry and infrastructure 23 Transport and communications 25 Foreign trade and payments Swaziland 26 Political structure 27 Economic structure 28 Outlook for 1998-99 29 Review 29 The political scene 32 The economy 35 Foreign trade and payments 37 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 10 Namibia: forecast summary 14 Namibia: central government finances, 1997/98 15 Namibia: consumer and food price inflation, 1997 18 Namibia: stock exchange trading 19 Namibia: fish-catch quotas 25 Namibia: foreign reserves, 1997 36 Swaziland: trade balance 37 Namibia: quarterly indicators of economic activity 38 Swaziland: quarterly indicators of economic activity 38 Namibia and Swaziland: UK trade EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 2 List of figures 10 Namibia: gross domestic product 10 Namibia: real exchange rates 29 Swaziland: gross domestic product 29 Swaziland: real exchange rates 34 Swaziland: sugar production EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 3 February 3rd 1998 Summary 1st quarter 1998 Namibia Outlook for 1998-99: Hage Geingob retained the position of prime minister in the December cabinet reshuffle, which has positioned him well for the eventual contest to succeed President Nujoma. The government’s failure to restrain spending this year means that the 1998/99 budget will have to be tight if borrowing levels are not to become unsustainable. GDP growth should reach 4.5% this year, provided the current weakness in the global diamond market is not prolonged by continued turbulence in Asia and the anticipated drought is not too severe. Growth should expand to 5.5% in 1999 as a result of substan- tially higher diamond output, a recovery in the fishing industry and a more substantive contribution from EPZ developments. Review: President Nujoma has enlarged the cabinet, bringing in senior party figures. The local authority elections have been postponed until later this month following a dispute over registration procedures. Pressure for more radi- cal land-redistribution policies is mounting, and a new dispute with Botswana over islands in the Linyati and Chobe rivers has developed. An additional budget was tabled in November: public spending for 1997/98 has been revised upwards by 6%, and the budget deficit will be much larger than anticipated. Inflation fell to a low of 7% in November 1997, thanks to a further drop in food prices, but a renewed drought could push the inflation rate up again this year. EPZ developments are gathering steam and new legislation for an offshore finance regime is to be introduced shortly. The stock exchange enjoyed record results in 1997. In spite of recent good rains, a renewed drought is likely. Low fishing quotas have been set for 1998, but they are expected to be revised upwards. Diamond output may have expanded less than expected in 1997 owing to weaker global demand, but uranium production rose by one-fifth. A seawater-desalination plant is to be constructed at Walvis Bay. A feasibility study on a new harbour at Möwe Bay is proceeding. Foreign reserves have continued to increase, albeit modestly. Swaziland Outlook for 1998-99: Elections are likely to take place in 1998, but details will not be clarified until parliament is opened by the king. The progressive forces will have to decide on their response. The South-east Asian crisis has affected exports of woodpulp, with potentially damaging effects on overall economic growth in Swaziland. The 1998/99 budget is expected to be prudent. Review: The year has started quietly, with the teachers’ strike ending and the Swaziland Federation of Trade Unions participating in the redrafting of the Industrial Relations Act. The government has clashed with traditional authori- ties. The debate on the Media Council Bill has been deferred. Territorial claims have upset Mozambique. A recent survey showed that Swazis lack confidence in the future. Supplementary budget estimates have been presented to parliament. The Public Accounts Committee has criticised the misappropriation of funds in government ministries, and the prime minister has promised improved effi- ciency. The population growth rate has fallen. Finance for infrastructure projects EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 4 is being negotiated. The last remaining international bank has withdrawn from the country. Prospects for the mining industry are mixed. There are plans for expansion in the sugar industry, and soft-drink concentrates are doing well. The inflation rate has fallen. Information about public enterprises has been sup- pressed and restructuring remains messy. The trade deficit is thought to have widened in 1997. Editors: Stephanie Wolters; Piers Haben All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 Namibia 5 Namibia Political structure Official name Republic of Namibia Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on 1990 constitution and Roman-Dutch law National legislature Bicameral; National Assembly, with 72 members elected by universal suffrage and serving a six-year term; National Council, established in 1993, with limited powers of review; 26 members, nominated by 13 regional councils for a five-year term National elections December 1994 (legislative and presidential); next elections due by February 1998 (local authority), December 1999 (legislative and presidential) Head of state President, currently Sam Nujoma, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two five-year terms National government President and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle December 1997 Main political parties South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), the ruling party; DTA of Namibia (formerly Democratic Turnhalle Alliance); Democratic Coalition of Namibia (DCN); United Democratic Front (UDF); South West African National Union (Swanu) Prime minister Hage Geingob Key ministers Agriculture, water & rural development Helmut Angula Basic education & culture John Mutorwa Defence Erikki Nghimtina Environment & tourism Philemon Malima Finance Nangolo Mbumba Fisheries & marine resources Abrahim Iyambo Foreign affairs Theo-Ben Gurirab Health & social services Libertine Amathila Home affairs Jerry Ekandjo Information & broadcasting Ben Amathila Justice Ngarikutuke Tjiriange Labour vacant Lands & resettlement Pendukeni Ithana Mines & energy Andimba Toivo ya Toivo Minister without portfolio Hifikepunye Pohamba Regional/local government & housing Nicky Iyambo Special advisers to the Economic affairs Gerhard “Gert” Hanekom president Political
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