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Riding the South Sea Bubble
Riding the South Sea Bubble By PETER TEMIN AND HANS-JOACHIM VOTH* This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare’s Bank, a fledgling West End London bank, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock: it was profitable to “ride the bubble.” Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by such institutional factors as restric- tions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may attack only when some coordinating event promotes joint action. (JEL G14, E44, N23) What allows asset price bubbles to inflate? light on other important episodes of market The recent rise and fall of technology stocks overvaluation. have led many to argue that wide swings in We examine one of the most famous and asset prices are largely driven by herd behavior dramatic episodes in the history of speculation, among investors. Robert J. Shiller (2000) em- the South Sea bubble. Data on the daily trading phasized that “irrational exuberance” raised behavior of a goldsmith bank—Hoare’s—allow stock prices above their fundamental values in us to examine competing explanations for how the 1990s. Others, however, have pointed to bubbles can inflate. While many investors, in- structural features of the stock market, such as cluding Isaac Newton, lost substantially in lock-up provisions for IPOs, analysts’ advice, 1720, Hoare’s made a profit of over £28,000, a strategic interactions between investors, and the great deal of money at a time when £200 was a uncertainties surrounding Internet technology, comfortable annual income for a middle-class as causes of the recent bubble. -
Recession of 1797?
SAE./No.48/February 2016 Studies in Applied Economics WHAT CAUSED THE RECESSION OF 1797? Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise What Caused the Recession of 1797? By Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts Copyright 2015 by Nicholas A. Curott and Tyler A. Watts About the Series The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Prof. Steve H. Hanke, co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise ([email protected]). About the Authors Nicholas A. Curott ([email protected]) is Assistant Professor of Economics at Ball State University in Muncie, Indiana. Tyler A. Watts is Professor of Economics at East Texas Baptist University in Marshall, Texas. Abstract This paper presents a monetary explanation for the U.S. recession of 1797. Credit expansion initiated by the Bank of the United States in the early 1790s unleashed a bout of inflation and low real interest rates, which spurred a speculative investment bubble in real estate and capital intensive manufacturing and infrastructure projects. A correction occurred as domestic inflation created a disparity in international prices that led to a reduction in net exports. Specie flowed out of the country, prices began to fall, and real interest rates spiked. In the ensuing credit crunch, businesses reliant upon rolling over short term debt were rendered unsustainable. The general economic downturn, which ensued throughout 1797 and 1798, involved declines in the price level and nominal GDP, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and a cluster of personal bankruptcies and business failures. -
The Bank Restriction Act and the Regime Shift to Paper Money, 1797-1821
European Historical Economics Society EHES WORKING PAPERS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY | NO. 100 Danger to the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797-1821 Patrick K. O’Brien Department of Economic History, London School of Economics Nuno Palma Department of History and Civilization, European University Institute Department of Economics, Econometrics, and Finance, University of Groningen JULY 2016 EHES Working Paper | No. 100 | July 2016 Danger to the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797-1821* Patrick K. O’Brien Department of Economic History, London School of Economics Nuno Palma Department of History and Civilization, European University Institute Department of Economics, Econometrics, and Finance, University of Groningen Abstract The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 suspended the convertibility of the Bank of England's notes into gold. The current historical consensus is that the suspension was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetization, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves following a landing of French troops in Wales. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the Restriction period, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of prudential collaboration between the Bank and the Treasury. JEL classification: N13, N23, N43 Keywords: Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, and time-consistency, regime shift, financial sector growth * We are grateful to Mark Dincecco, Rui Esteves, Alex Green, Marjolein 't Hart, Phillip Hoffman, Alejandra Irigoin, Richard Kleer, Kevin O’Rourke, Jaime Reis, Rebecca Simson, Albrecht Ritschl, Joan R. -
The Fourth Industrial Revolution: How the EU Can Lead It
EUV0010.1177/1781685818762890European ViewSchäfer 762890research-article2018 Article European View 2018, Vol. 17(1) 5 –12 The fourth industrial © The Author(s) 2018 https://doi.org/10.1177/1781685818762890DOI: 10.1177/1781685818762890 revolution: How the EU journals.sagepub.com/home/euv can lead it Matthias Schäfer Abstract The fourth industrial revolution is different from the previous three. This is because machines and artificial intelligence play a significant role in enhancing productivity and wealth creation, which directly changes and challenges the role of human beings. The fourth industrial revolution will also intensify globalisation. Therefore, technology will become much more significant, because regions and societies that cope positively with the technological impact of the fourth industrial revolution will have a better economic and social future. This article argues that the EU can play an important role in developing an environment appropriate for the fourth industrial revolution, an environment that is vibrant and open to new technologies. Member states would profit from an EU-wide coordinated framework for this area. The EU has to establish new common policies for the market-oriented diffusion and widespread use of new technologies. Keywords Fourth industrial revolution, Technology policy, Industrial policy, Leadership Introduction Historically there have been four industrial revolutions (see Schwab 2016). The first began in the early nineteenth century, when the power of steam and water dramatically increased the productivity of human (physical) labour. The second revolution started almost a hundred years later with electricity as its key driver. Mass industrial production Corresponding author: M. Schäfer, Department Politics and Consulting, Head of the Team for Economic Policy, Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung, Berlin, Germany. -
An Undertaking of Great Advantage, but Nobody to Know What It Is: Bubbles and Gullibility
An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is: Bubbles and gullibility Andrew Odlyzko [email protected] http://www.dtc.umn.edu/∼odlyzko Revised version, March 11, 2020. One of the most famous anecdotes in finance is of a promoter in the 1720 South Sea Bubble who lured investors into putting money into “an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” This tale is apocryphal, but it is only a slight embellishment of some documented cases. Most were slightly less preposterous than the anecdotal one, when considered in the context of the time, but they all reflect the high level of credulity displayed by the investors of 1720. However, it is debatable whether their gullibility was greater than that of the most sophisticated investment professionals in recent times. This leads to some intriguing thoughts about the nature of financial markets and human society in general. A reference that is often cited for this and other colorful tales of investor irrationality is Mackay’s ever-popular Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It was first published in 1841 under a slightly different title, and had the following account ([4], vol. 1, p. 88), which was basically copied from Oldmixon a century earlier ([6], pp. 701–702): [T]he most absurd and preposterous of all [the new projects of 1720 in London], and which showed, more completely than any other, the utter madness of the people, was one started by an unknown adventurer, entitled “A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” Were not the fact stated by scores of credible witnesses, it would be impossible to believe that any person could have been duped by such a project. -
Riding the South Sea Bubble
MIT LIBRARIES DUPL 3 9080 02617 8225 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium Member Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/ridingsouthseabuOOtemi L L5 2- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series RIDING THE SOUTH SEA BUBBLE Peter Temin Hans-Joachim Voth Working Paper 04-02 Dec. 21,2003 RoomE52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142 This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Paper Collection at http://ssrn.com/abstract=485482 Riding the South Sea Bubble Peter Temin and Hans-Joachim Voth Abstract: This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and that it invested knowingly in the bubble; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action. KEYWORDS: Bubbles, Crashes, Synchronization Risk, Predictability, Investor Sentiment, South Sea Bubble, Market Timing, Limits to Arbitrage, Efficient Market Hypothesis. JELCODE: G14, G12,N23 We would like to thank Henry Hoare for kindly permitting access to the Hoare's Bank archives, and to Victoria Hutchings and Barbra Sands for facilitating our work with the ledgers. Larry Neal kindly shared data with us. -
The Industrial Revolution, 1700–1900
The Industrial Revolution, 1700–1900 Previewing Main Ideas SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY From the spinning jenny to the locomotive train, there was an explosion of inventions and technological advances. These improvements paved the way for the Industrial Revolution. Geography What other European countries besides England had coal, iron, and textile industries in the 1800s? EMPIRE BUILDING The global power balance shifted after the Industrial Revolution. This shift occurred because industrialized nations dominated the rest of the world. Geography Study the map. Which country appears to be the most industrialized? ECONOMICS The Industrial Revolution transformed economic systems. In part, this was because nations dramatically changed the way they produced and distributed goods. Geography What geographic factors might have encouraged the development of industry in certain places? INTERNET RESOURCES • Interactive Maps Go to classzone.com for: • Interactive Visuals • Research Links • Maps • Interactive Primary Sources • Internet Activities • Test Practice VIDEO Patterns of Interaction: • Primary Sources • Current Events The Industrial and Electronic • Chapter Quiz Revolutions 280 281 What are fair working conditions? You are a 15-year-old living in England where the Industrial Revolution has spurred the growth of thousands of factories. Cheap labor is in great demand. Like millions of other teenagers, you do not go to school. Instead, you work in a factory 6 days a week, 14 hours a day. The small pay you receive is needed to help support your family. You trudge to work before dawn every day and work until after sundown. Inside the workplace the air is hot and foul, and after sunset it is so dark it is hard to see. -
Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money
UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations 1-1-1991 Early speculative bubbles and increases in the supply of money Douglas Edward French University of Nevada, Las Vegas Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/rtds Repository Citation French, Douglas Edward, "Early speculative bubbles and increases in the supply of money" (1991). UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations. 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.25669/h29l-bf64 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. -
Smashing Cosmopolitanism: the Neo-Liberal Destruction of Cosmopolitan Education in East-Central Europe
Smashing Cosmopolitanism: The Neo-liberal Destruction of Cosmopolitan Education in East-Central Europe Robert J. Imre University of Newcastle Zsuzsa Millei University of Newcastle Critiques that seek to examine cosmopolitanism as a concept suffer from a severe popularity problem. Rather than engage in this pro/con debate, we are interested in demonstrating that cosmopolitanism can wax and wane, ebb and flow, and has appeared as a grounding ideology for educational programs before, only to be torn asunder by those seeking to consolidate regime change. We do not suggest that cosmopolitanism is good and righteous politics, normatively opposed to or supporting patriotism, nor is it ideologically left, right or centre. We see a burgeoning cosmopolitan outlook in a particular time and place, that was smashed by political and social forces both unforeseen and powerful, changing foundational concepts of education in East-Central Europe in general and Hungary in particular. s a popular concept in the English-speaking world, cosmopolitanism conjures up notions of a well-read, well-fed, bourgeoisie with economic and social capacities to move around the worldA using their networks and sophisticated understandings of cultural diversity. A cosmopolitan understanding of the world encompasses a commitment to universal human rights, universal human potential, and a deeply embedded acceptance of difference and diversity. These ideas are core parts of a universalist frame of reference, and a philosophical underpinning of a particular view of the modern world held during the Industrial Revolution until today (Held, 2003). This paper challenges the idea that cosmopolitanism exists exclusively in the post-Cold War period in East-Central Europe, and also challenges the idea that the Hungarian education system was a monolithic neo-Stalinist version of ‘ideology expression’. -
When the Periphery Became More Central: from Colonial Pact to Liberal Nationalism in Brazil and Mexico, 1800-1914 Steven Topik
When the Periphery Became More Central: From Colonial Pact to Liberal Nationalism in Brazil and Mexico, 1800-1914 Steven Topik Introduction The Global Economic History Network has concentrated on examining the “Great Divergence” between Europe and Asia, but recognizes that the Americas also played a major role in the development of the world economy. Ken Pomeranz noted, as had Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Karl Marx before him, the role of the Americas in supplying the silver and gold that Europeans used to purchase Asian luxury goods.1 Smith wrote about the great importance of colonies2. Marx and Engels, writing almost a century later, noted: "The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh ground for the rising bourgeoisie. The East-Indian and Chinese markets, the colonisation of America [north and south] trade with the colonies, ... gave to commerce, to navigation, to industry, an impulse never before known. "3 Many students of the world economy date the beginning of the world economy from the European “discovery” or “encounter” of the “New World”) 4 1 Ken Pomeranz, The Great Divergence , Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000:264- 285) 2 Adam Smith in An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776, rpt. Regnery Publishing, Washington DC, 1998) noted (p. 643) “The colony of a civilized nation which takes possession, either of a waste country or of one so thinly inhabited, that the natives easily give place to the new settlers, advances more rapidly to wealth and greatness than any other human society.” The Americas by supplying silver and “by opening a new and inexhaustible market to all the commodities of Europe, it gave occasion to new divisions of labour and improvements of art….The productive power of labour was improved.” p. -
The Industrial Revolution in Services *
The Industrial Revolution in Services * Chang-Tai Hsieh Esteban Rossi-Hansberg University of Chicago and NBER Princeton University and NBER May 12, 2021 Abstract The U.S. has experienced an industrial revolution in services. Firms in service in- dustries, those where output has to be supplied locally, increasingly operate in more markets. Employment, sales, and spending on fixed costs such as R&D and man- agerial employment have increased rapidly in these industries. These changes have favored top firms the most and have led to increasing national concentration in ser- vice industries. Top firms in service industries have grown entirely by expanding into new local markets that are predominantly small and mid-sized U.S. cities. Market concentration at the local level has decreased in all U.S. cities but by significantly more in cities that were initially small. These facts are consistent with the availability of a new menu of fixed-cost-intensive technologies in service sectors that enable adopters to produce at lower marginal costs in any markets. The entry of top service firms into new local markets has led to substantial unmeasured productivity growth, particularly in small markets. *We thank Adarsh Kumar, Feng Lin, Harry Li, and Jihoon Sung for extraordinary research assistance. We also thank Rodrigo Adao, Dan Adelman, Audre Bagnall, Jill Golder, Bob Hall, Pete Klenow, Hugo Hopenhayn, Danial Lashkari, Raghuram Rajan, Richard Rogerson, and Chad Syverson for helpful discussions. The data from the US Census has been reviewed by the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure no confidential information is disclosed. 2 HSIEH AND ROSSI-HANSBERG 1. -
The Development of English Company Law Before 1900
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Turner, John D. Working Paper The development of English company law before 1900 QUCEH Working Paper Series, No. 2017-01 Provided in Cooperation with: Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH), Queen's University Belfast Suggested Citation: Turner, John D. (2017) : The development of English company law before 1900, QUCEH Working Paper Series, No. 2017-01, Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH), Belfast This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/149911 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu QUCEH WORKING PAPER SERIES http://www.quceh.org.uk/working-papers THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENGLISH COMPANY LAW BEFORE 1900 John D.