Feature Resolving the Increasing Risk from in the American West

by Ray Rasker

State Farm A threatens a home near Possum Kingdom, Texas.

In Brief Wildfires have always been part of living in the American West, but today they are bigger, burn longer, cause more damage, and kill more people than ever before. This situation is getting significantly worse in large part because more and more people are choosing to live in forested landscapes, further risking lives and property and putting a significant strain on agency budgets. Add to this scenario the lingering effects of past management practices that have exacer- bated fire danger and the expectation of continued changes to the Earth’s climate, and we have a management situation where the solutions don’t match the severity of the problem. This article describes the trends in wildfires, the challenge of defending private property, the solutions tried so far, and outlines new ideas that could significantly reduce costs and risks by altering the pattern of future home building on fire-prone lands.

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 55 ildfires have always intensity of fires as well as the length The second problem is that com- been part of living in of the fire season. munities are not controlling future Wthe American West, but Wildfire appropriations to the development on fire-prone lands today they are bigger, burn longer, Department of the Interior and to because the bulk of the cause more damage, and kill more the Forest Service have tripled from costs are paid for by federal taxpayers people than ever before. Much of this US$1 billion per year on average in the and not at the local level where the drama plays out on public lands of 1990s to US$3 billion on average annu- land use decisions are made. The the West, where almost half of the ally from 2002 to 2012.4 Contemporary Forest Service, the Bureau of Land land is managed by the federal agen- fires are more expensive for a number Management, the Federal Emergency cies like the Forest Service and Bureau of reasons. Fires are larger in size, Management Agency, and state of Land Management. From 2000 to governments pay the bulk of the 2013, 88 percent of wildfire acreage firefighting costs. Meanwhile, com- burned has occurred in the West.1 Key Concepts munities either financially benefit—or perceive to benefit—from tax revenues Wildfires Occur Primarily • The threat of wildfires in the from new residential developments. in the West American West is growing due to Like government-subsidized flood The challenge of wildfires center in past management practices, climate management programs, firefighting change, and the building of homes on large part on the need to defend homes fire-prone lands. policy in the U.S. has an element on private lands that are at risk from of moral hazard; since a significant fires that originate either on private • Wildland firefighting budgets of portion of the costs associated with lands or nearby public lands. The term federal land agencies have tripled building in hazardous areas are not often used to describe these lands is in size in the last decade, driven borne by the local governments or in large part by the need to defend the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI), homes. As a result, funds that would homeowners, there is little incentive defined in this paper as private land otherwise be used to reduce risk to build on safer lands.7 Because of this, within 500 meters of forested federal (by reducing fuels, for example) are it will be difficult to control the rising instead diverted to fire suppression. land.2 costs, damages, and dangers related to Even though land use plan- • Solutions tried to date—voluntary home development in forested areas ning—the decision of where to allow landowner education and fuel reduc- unless there are negative financial the building of homes—is a local tion—are important but not sufficient consequences for private land manage- given the magnitude of the problem government responsibility, the cost of and future trends. ment decisions that increase risk and defending the homes from wildfires is positive financial rewards for deci- often a state and federal burden. When • To create a strong incentive for sions that reduce risk. a fire breaks out, regardless of where improved land use planning and Because wildfires will continue to it started, land management agencies direct future home building away be part of the western landscape, the from fire-prone lands, local govern- like the Forest Service and Bureau of ments must bear a higher proportion challenge is to successfully live with Land Management spring into action, of the firefighting costs. fire. This will mean an increase in sending ground crews, helicopters, local responsibility for allowing home and air tankers to battle the blaze. The • The federal government can building on fire-prone lands and land create significant rewards for priority to defend private property better planning through a community use regulations that minimize the risk sometimes comes with catastrophic rating system, allocating funds and from wildfires. results, as was the case last year when assistance to communities willing to 19 elite died defending reduce wildfire risk on private lands. Long-term Wildfire Trends homes in Yarnell, Arizona. Indicate a Need for Better The wildfire challenge is driven Planning on Private Lands by two overriding problems. First, driven in part by climate change and Wildfires are increasing in size and long-term trends indicate the costs fuel buildup resulting from past fire burning longer. In part due to a chang- and dangers associated with defending suppression. Fires are also becoming ing climate, during the last decade, the homes will continue to increase. In more expensive due to the high cost average acreage burned by wildfires the West, 84 percent of these forested of defending an increasing number have increased from 44 to 88 acres lands are not yet developed,3 the of homes. Estimates of the costs of per fire. The average fire also burns housing market has picked up once defending homes from wildfires vary, twice as long,8 and since the 1970s, the more, and climate change is acting as from around 30 percent of total costs length of the fire season has increased an accelerator, increasing the size and to 50–95 percent.5,6 by over two months.9,10 By 2050,

56 | Solutions | March-April 2015 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org Wildfires, 2000–2013

Ray Rasker Figure 1. Wildfires occur primarily in the Western part of the country. wildfire activity is expected to double Arizona, 83 percent in ; and Service transferred $505 million from in the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, 80 percent in Colorado.3 other departments to pay for fire and Rocky Mountain regions.11,12 The human cost of defending suppression.17 As a result, a number of Since 1990, the average number homes from wildfires is also escalat- programs—including fuel reduction of structures burned per year by ing. In the 1990s, the average number efforts that would decrease fire risk— wildfires has more than tripled,13 yet of deaths per year was 17.2, are not funded.18 home building continues. Since 1990, rising to 19.3 per year in the 2000s, and 60 percent of new homes in the U.S. 34 in 2013 (including 19 at Yarnell, Solutions Tried to Date have been built in forested areas, and Arizona).15 To date, two solutions have been tried today 40 percent of total single-family One of the consequences of rising to reduce the costs and risks associated homes in the U.S. (46 million homes) costs is that firefighting is consuming with home development on fire-prone are exposed to the risk of forest fires.14 agency budgets and robbing money lands: fuel reduction and landowner The potential for more home from other projects. In 2014, wildfire education. development in harm’s way is management appropriation has According to agency estimates, significant. In the West, 16 percent of grown to 51 percent of the Forest about 230 million acres of Forest forest lands open for home building Service’s budget, up from 17 percent Service and Department of Interior have been built on, which means in 1995.16 Because of rising firefight- lands are in need of treatment 84 percent (amounting to almost 13 ing costs—driven in large part by (mechanically or through prescribed million acres) is not yet developed. In the need to defend homes—agencies burning) because they are at risk from some states, the potential for further have to continually shift money from ecological damage from wildfires due development is high: for example, other departments (“fire transfers” to excessive fuel loads (75 million acres 91 percent of this forested land in or “fire borrowing”) to pay for the are at “high” risk, plus 156 million at Montana is not yet developed; 89 rising costs of fire suppression. For “moderate” risk). Yet, on average, less percent in Oregon; 84 percent in example, in fiscal year 2013 the Forest than three million acres are treated per

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 57 U.S. Department of Agriculture Firefighters work to control the Springs Fire in the Boise National Forest, Idaho in August 2012. The financial and human costs of fighting wildfires have increased in recent years. year, which is insufficient to reduce landowner education efforts. Less building away from the most danger- risk significantly.19,20 than three percent of the 46 million ous, fire-prone lands. For better local A number of efforts are aimed at at-risk homes have been inspected planning to occur, several things must landowner education, including the by insurance companies for wildfire happen simultaneously. Firewise,21 Ready Set Go,22 Living with survivability (and only 2 percent of First, local governments, who have Fire,23 the Fire Adapted Communities policies were cancelled due to lack of the authority to regulate develop- Learning Network,24 and others. These homeowner follow-up). Community ment on private lands, must share a programs are aimed at increasing the Wildfire Protection Plans have been higher percentage of the firefighting survivability of homes by creating developed by 21 percent of the at-risk costs. This would create a strong defensible space around buildings, communities and less than 10 percent incentive for better planning. This clearing flammable materials, using of these communities have a WUI is the stick approach. It is aimed flame-retardant building materials, development code.9,26 at eliminating the subsidy local and other means. governments currently receive, where Landowner education efforts are Solutions Not Yet Tried: residential subdivisions are routinely essential and important, yet there Improved Planning and approved on lands that have a high is still a long way to go. At least Controlling Future chance of burning, yet there is no 70,000 communities are at risk from Home Development financial consequence because the wildfires.25 Of these, less than two There is a need for improved land cost of defending the homes when a percent are designated as Firewise use planning on private lands that fire breaks out is borne by the federal communities, one of the predominant would result in directing future home government.

58 | Solutions | March-April 2015 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org The second approach is the carrot Wildfire Trends Are Worrisome: approach, built around a set of incen- tives for local government to improve land use planning to reduce wildfire Fires are bigger risk. To implement better planning, local governments, especially under- Burn longer staffed rural counties, need assistance. This can come in the form of detailed The season is longer fire-risk mapping, grants to hire professional planning consultants, and Climate is getting hotter in some cases, funds to purchase lands or development rights to prevent them Homes are built on fire-prone lands from being developed. More homes are burned Shifting Firefighting Costs to Local Governments Danger is increasing A mechanism already exists for sharing the cost of fighting wildfires Costs are soaring and assigning responsibilities among the federal agencies and Firefighting as % of agency local governments. They are called Master Cooperative Wildland budget is growing Fire Management Agreements, or simply Master Agreements. Master Ray Rasker Agreements set the general framework Figure 2. Worrying trends indicate that toady’s wildfires are larger, burn longer, inflict more damage, and for how to fight fires and pay for them, kill more people than ever before. and Cost Share Agreements spell out the specifics for who pays for different elements of individual fires. However, Some Trends Can Be Reversed: there is currently a disincentive for local governments to agree to sign cost share agreements if, in the end, the Fires bigger vast majority of the cost of defending Things we homes is borne by federal agencies and Burn longer can’t state firefighting agencies. One way Season longer to incentivize signing of cost-share control agreements is to offer higher levels Climate warmer of financial and technical assistance (described below) to communities that sign Master Agreements. Homes built In addition, the Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Homes burned Operations, also known as the Red Things we Book, clearly states that “structure pro- Danger tection” (defending homes) is a local CAN 27 responsibility. Yet, agencies continue Cost control to spend federal dollars to protect homes from wildfires, thereby sending % of agency a clear message that if local govern- budget ments do nothing to reduce risk, the federal government will still act to Ray Rasker protect private property. It would be Figure 3. While we cannot control all variables affecting wildfires, we can mitigate the damage that helpful if federal land management they cause with better planning and preparedness.

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 59 agencies stopping sending these sorts developments away from wildfire One way to allocate the funds is of mixed signals and instead clarified danger. In addition, local governments to take a lesson from national flood- to local authorities what it says in would benefit from understanding the plain management.28 The National the Red Book: “Local governments details of how, when, and where wild- Floodplain Insurance Program, while assume financial responsibility for fires may pose a risk to the community. not without its challenges, has a few emergency response activities, includ- Yet, they often lack the capability to elements that are worth considering ing structure protections, within their map in any detail the fire risk. for wildfire management, namely, jurisdictions.”27 The federal government can help flood mapping and assistance allo- communities with detailed fire-risk cated based on a community rating Provide Financial and Technical mapping, land use planning, and in system. Mapping of the floodplain is Assistance to Local Governments selected instances, land purchases. But a federal responsibility, managed by to Minimize Risk from Wildfires where would the funds come from, the Federal Emergency Management Local governments can regulate future and how would the assistance be Agency. Fire risk mapping could also home development by making use of prioritized? be standardized by federal agencies, guidance and regulatory documents. The Forest Service in fiscal year such as the Forest Service, who could These include Comprehensive Land Use 2015 has a US$2.2 billion fire budget, provide course scale maps that could Plans, Community Wildfire Protection with US$1 billion devoted to its be improved on at a finer scale by local Plans, and Local Hazards Mitigation Preparedness fund.10 While money is communities. Plans. However, many communities allocated for fuel reduction and educa- The National Floodplain Insurance are understaffed and lack the technical tion programs like Firewise, no funds Program also provides an incentive for guidance and finances to develop plans are spent on assisting communities to communities in the form of reduced that ensure future development is done direct future development away from insurance rates (for homeowners who in a way that minimizes risk to homes fire danger. A modest portion of the fire must carry insurance if they are in the from wildland fire. budget, such as one percent (US $22 floodplain) based on a Community Sometimes regulatory documents million per year), could be devoted to Rating System. The rating system is are even in conflict with each other, a new program called the Community based on the community’s actions to making wildfire risk planning a Planning Assistance Program. reduce flood risk. In a similar fashion, challenge. A community in Colorado, for example, regulates through its comprehensive land use plan that new home developments need to be Because wildfires will continue to be part of the western hidden by mature trees. This is done for aesthetic considerations. Yet, its landscape, the challenge is to successfully live with fire. wildfire protection plan calls for clear- ing vegetation from around homes, a necessary action to reduce the risk from wildfires. Coordinating planning Communities could apply for assis- a community rating system could be documents so that they “talk to each tance and they could use the funds to created for wildfires. Because there other” is necessary but often difficult hire consultants, including land use is no federal insurance program for and time consuming. planners and companies that special- wildfires, nor is such a scheme likely County comprehensive plans ize in fire risk mapping. Assuming a (see Box 1), a different set of incentives can also be improved by integrating generous US$100,000 for planning would have to be created. policy language and tools that give consultants and another US$100,000 The system could be voluntary, local governments the authority and for detailed fire risk mapping, the total and communities could choose to join responsibility to reject, redirect, and cost per community to help them the program and be awarded points redesign subdivision and home site identify and plan to reduce the risk for adoption of different wildfire risk proposals based on fire risk. This of wildfires would be approximately reduction measures, with more points could include, for example, regulatory US$200,000. Using one percent of the awarded to those policies that have tools, such as zoning overlays and Forest Service’s fire budget this way, a greater impact. The risk reduction subdivision regulations, development the agency would be able to assist methods could include such efforts and design standards, landscape regula- more than a 100 communities per year as local fuel reduction on private tions, transfer of development rights (or more than 50 communities using lands, zoning ordinances that limit programs, and incentives to encourage only 0.05% of the fire budget). or redirect development, and the

60 | Solutions | March-April 2015 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org signing of cost-share agreements by local governments, among others. As Insurance is Not the Solution to Directing communities gain more points, they Future Home Development Away from Danger could be rewarded with greater levels of support. The rewards could be a Insurance may not be the strongest tool for altering the pace and nature of development combination of three elements: on undeveloped forested areas. While homeowner premiums may be higher in these areas for some insurance companies in selected locations, reflecting the higher wildfire risk, it appears unlikely that they are high enough currently to be a deterrent to future development. 1. Land use planning assistance: Carole Walker of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association put the situation grants of up to US$200,000 would succinctly: “A homeowner’s insurance premium is the result of the decision to live in the be awarded to communities to be Wildland—Urban Interface, but it is not the primary driver of that decision. A government- used to hire planning and map- run high-risk insurance fund would ultimately encourage, rather than discourage people to ping services. This could include live in the WUI.”1 It is doubtful that insurance rates will rise high enough in the near term assistance with tools such as to influence the redesign of a subdivision to direct future homes onto the safest areas, or zoning, landscape and subdivision prohibit home development on the most dangerous lands. And further, replicating a federally regulations, and growth manage- funded insurance requirement for people living on fire-prone lands, similar to national ment policies. The grants could be floodplain insurance requirements, might exacerbate development on fire-prone lands. used for detailed fire risk mapping, improving on the course scale maps provided by federal agencies. MC. Evidence for the effect of homes on wildfire Management priority: 2. the Forest Wildfires are increasingly expen- suppression costs. International Journal of Wildland Service and Bureau of Land sive and dangerous, burning homes Fire 22(4), 537–548 (2013). Management do not have the and consuming agency budgets. A 6. Report No. 08601-44-SF (U.S. Department resources for active management large portion of the costs and risks are of Agriculture Office of Inspector General, to thin forests and reduce fuel loads related to the need to defend private DC, 2006). 7. Lessons for wildfire from federal flood everywhere. They could direct homes next to federal lands. Attempts risk management programs. Headwaters their efforts to the highest-rated to mitigate, including voluntary land- Economics [online] (November 2014). http:// communities. Management actions owner education and fuel reduction, headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/lessons-for-fire- on federal lands, in the form of are essential, yet these approaches from-floodrisk. prescribed burning, mechanical alone are insufficient for the magni- 8. Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1960–2009). treatment, and forest restoration, tude of the growing wildfire problem. National Interagency Fire Center [online]. http:// www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires. could be given to communities To fully address future wildfire risks, html. that rank high in terms of on-the- the U.S. needs a national conversa- 9. Statement Thomas Tidwell, Chief, USDA Forest ground actions to reduce wildfire tion about how to direct future Service before the Committee on Energy and risk on private lands (clearing development out of harm’s way. Ideas Natural Resources U.S. Senate. U.S. Senate flammable materials near homes; presented in this paper are hopefully Committee on Energy and Natural Resources [online] (June 4, 2013). http://www.energy.senate. creating fire breaks; clustering the beginning of this conversation. gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=e59df65c- future homes away from fire-prone 09c6-4ffd-9a83-f61f2822a075. lands; detailed fire-risk mapping; References 10. Fiscal year 2015 budget justification. U.S.D.A. Forest zoning ordinances, etc.). 1. US Historic Fire Perimeters, 2000–2013. U.S. Service [online] (March 2014). http://www.fs.fed.us/ 3. Land purchase: federal land Geological Survey, Geospatial Multi-Agency aboutus/budget/2015/FS15-FS-Budget-Justification. purchase programs such as the Coordination Group (GeoMAC) [online]. http:// pdf. 11. Climate change and wildfires: what’s the Land and Conservation rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/outgoing/GeoMAC/historic_fire_ data/. connection? U.S. Global Change Research Fund, the Forest Legacy Program, 2. Gude, P, Rasker, R & van den Noort, J. Potential for Program [online] (August 22, 2013). http://www. the Community Forest and Open future development on fire-prone lands. Journal of globalchange.gov/news/climate-change-and- Space Conservation Program, and Forestry (June, 2008). wildfires-what’s-connection. others, could be used to buy land 3. As wildland urban interface develops, firefighting 12. Yue, X, Mickley, LJ, Logan, JA & Kaplan, JO. Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and or development rights. The criteria costs will soar. Headwaters Economics [online] . carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the (2014) http://headwaterseconomics.org/interactive/ for the use of these funds could western United States in the mid-21st century. wui-development-and-wildfire-costs. be expanded to include reduction Atmospheric Science 77 (October 2013). 4. The rising cost of wildfire protection. Headwaters 13. Congressional Research Service Report R43077. of wildfire risk, and communities Economics [online] (June 2013). http:// Congressional Research Service [online] ((March, who rank high in terms of actions headwaterseconomics.org/wphw/wp-content/ 2014). http://nationalaglawcenter.org/wp-content/ taken to reduce fire risk get priority uploads/fire-costs-background-report.pdf. uploads/assets/crs/R43077.pdf. access to these funds. 5. Gude, PH, Jones, KL, Rasker, R & Greenwood,

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 61 14. Blue Ribbon Panel report on wildland urban 18. Fire transfer impact by state and territory. U.S. [online]. http://www.fireadapted.org/region/fac- interface. International Code Council [online] Department of Agriculture Forest Service [online] learning-network.aspx. (April 2008). https://inawf.memberclicks.net/assets/ (June 9, 2014). http://www.fs.fed.us/publications/ 25. Communities at risk report. National Association blueribbonreport-low.pdf. forest-service-fire-transfer-state-impacts.pdf. of State Foresters [online] (2013). http://www. stateforesters.org/fy-2013-communities-risk-report. 15. Historical wildland firefighter fatality reports. 19. The rising cost of wildfire protection. Headwaters National Interagency Fire Center [online]. http:// Economics [online] (June 2013). http:// 26. Wildland urban interface fact sheet. International www.nifc.gov/safety/safety_HistFatality_report.html. headwaterseconomics.org/wphw/wp-content/ Association of Wildland Fire [online] (August, 2013). http://www.iawfonline.org/pdf/WUI_Fact_ 16. The rising cost of fire operations: effects on uploads/fire-costs-background-report.pdf. Sheet_08012013.pdf. the forest service’s non-fire work. U.S. Forest 20. Congressional Research Service Report RL33990. 27. Redbook 2014 Interagency standards for fire and Service [online] (August 2014). http://www. Congressional Research Service [online] (July, 2001). fire aviation operations. National Interagency Fire fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/media/2014/34/nr- http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33990.pdf. Center [online] (2014). http://www.nifc.gov/policies/ firecostimpact-082014.pdf. 21. Firewise Communities [online]. http://www. firewise.org/. pol_ref_redbook_2014.html. 17. Meador, R. U.S. to budget for fighting wildfire as 28. Lessons for wildfire from federal flood a natural disaster — one recurring every year. 22. Ready, Set, Go. International Association of Fire risk management programs. Headwaters MinnPost [online] (June 10, 2014). http://www. Chiefs [online]. http://www.wildlandfirersg.org/. Economics [online] (November, 2014). http:// minnpost.com/earth-journal/2014/06/us-budget- 23. Living With Fire [online]. http://www.livingwithfire. headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/lessons-for-fire- fighting-wildfire-natural-disaster-one-recurring- info/. from-floodrisk. every-year. 24. Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network

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