Feature Resolving the Increasing Risk from Wildfires in the American West by Ray Rasker State Farm A wildfire threatens a home near Possum Kingdom, Texas. In Brief Wildfires have always been part of living in the American West, but today they are bigger, burn longer, cause more damage, and kill more people than ever before. This situation is getting significantly worse in large part because more and more people are choosing to live in forested landscapes, further risking lives and property and putting a significant strain on agency budgets. Add to this scenario the lingering effects of past management practices that have exacer- bated fire danger and the expectation of continued changes to the Earth’s climate, and we have a management situation where the solutions don’t match the severity of the problem. This article describes the trends in wildfires, the challenge of defending private property, the solutions tried so far, and outlines new ideas that could significantly reduce costs and risks by altering the pattern of future home building on fire-prone lands. www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 55 ildfires have always intensity of fires as well as the length The second problem is that com- been part of living in of the fire season. munities are not controlling future Wthe American West, but Wildfire appropriations to the development on fire-prone lands today they are bigger, burn longer, Department of the Interior and to because the bulk of the firefighting cause more damage, and kill more the Forest Service have tripled from costs are paid for by federal taxpayers people than ever before. Much of this US$1 billion per year on average in the and not at the local level where the drama plays out on public lands of 1990s to US$3 billion on average annu- land use decisions are made. The the West, where almost half of the ally from 2002 to 2012.4 Contemporary Forest Service, the Bureau of Land land is managed by the federal agen- fires are more expensive for a number Management, the Federal Emergency cies like the Forest Service and Bureau of reasons. Fires are larger in size, Management Agency, and state of Land Management. From 2000 to governments pay the bulk of the 2013, 88 percent of wildfire acreage firefighting costs. Meanwhile, com- burned has occurred in the West.1 Key Concepts munities either financially benefit—or perceive to benefit—from tax revenues Wildfires Occur Primarily • The threat of wildfires in the from new residential developments. in the West American West is growing due to Like government-subsidized flood The challenge of wildfires center in past management practices, climate management programs, firefighting change, and the building of homes on large part on the need to defend homes fire-prone lands. policy in the U.S. has an element on private lands that are at risk from of moral hazard; since a significant fires that originate either on private • Wildland firefighting budgets of portion of the costs associated with lands or nearby public lands. The term federal land agencies have tripled building in hazardous areas are not often used to describe these lands is in size in the last decade, driven borne by the local governments or in large part by the need to defend the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI), homes. As a result, funds that would homeowners, there is little incentive defined in this paper as private land otherwise be used to reduce risk to build on safer lands.7 Because of this, within 500 meters of forested federal (by reducing fuels, for example) are it will be difficult to control the rising instead diverted to fire suppression. land.2 costs, damages, and dangers related to Even though land use plan- • Solutions tried to date—voluntary home development in forested areas ning—the decision of where to allow landowner education and fuel reduc- unless there are negative financial the building of homes—is a local tion—are important but not sufficient consequences for private land manage- given the magnitude of the problem government responsibility, the cost of and future trends. ment decisions that increase risk and defending the homes from wildfires is positive financial rewards for deci- often a state and federal burden. When • To create a strong incentive for sions that reduce risk. a fire breaks out, regardless of where improved land use planning and Because wildfires will continue to it started, land management agencies direct future home building away be part of the western landscape, the from fire-prone lands, local govern- like the Forest Service and Bureau of ments must bear a higher proportion challenge is to successfully live with Land Management spring into action, of the firefighting costs. fire. This will mean an increase in sending ground crews, helicopters, local responsibility for allowing home and air tankers to battle the blaze. The • The federal government can building on fire-prone lands and land create significant rewards for priority to defend private property better planning through a community use regulations that minimize the risk sometimes comes with catastrophic rating system, allocating funds and from wildfires. results, as was the case last year when assistance to communities willing to 19 elite firefighters died defending reduce wildfire risk on private lands. Long-term Wildfire Trends homes in Yarnell, Arizona. Indicate a Need for Better The wildfire challenge is driven Planning on Private Lands by two overriding problems. First, driven in part by climate change and Wildfires are increasing in size and long-term trends indicate the costs fuel buildup resulting from past fire burning longer. In part due to a chang- and dangers associated with defending suppression. Fires are also becoming ing climate, during the last decade, the homes will continue to increase. In more expensive due to the high cost average acreage burned by wildfires the West, 84 percent of these forested of defending an increasing number have increased from 44 to 88 acres lands are not yet developed,3 the of homes. Estimates of the costs of per fire. The average fire also burns housing market has picked up once defending homes from wildfires vary, twice as long,8 and since the 1970s, the more, and climate change is acting as from around 30 percent of total costs length of the fire season has increased an accelerator, increasing the size and to 50–95 percent.5,6 by over two months.9,10 By 2050, 56 | Solutions | March-April 2015 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org Wildfires, 2000–2013 Ray Rasker Figure 1. Wildfires occur primarily in the Western part of the country. wildfire activity is expected to double Arizona, 83 percent in California; and Service transferred $505 million from in the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, 80 percent in Colorado.3 other departments to pay for fire and Rocky Mountain regions.11,12 The human cost of defending suppression.17 As a result, a number of Since 1990, the average number homes from wildfires is also escalat- programs—including fuel reduction of structures burned per year by ing. In the 1990s, the average number efforts that would decrease fire risk— wildfires has more than tripled,13 yet of firefighter deaths per year was 17.2, are not funded.18 home building continues. Since 1990, rising to 19.3 per year in the 2000s, and 60 percent of new homes in the U.S. 34 in 2013 (including 19 at Yarnell, Solutions Tried to Date have been built in forested areas, and Arizona).15 To date, two solutions have been tried today 40 percent of total single-family One of the consequences of rising to reduce the costs and risks associated homes in the U.S. (46 million homes) costs is that firefighting is consuming with home development on fire-prone are exposed to the risk of forest fires.14 agency budgets and robbing money lands: fuel reduction and landowner The potential for more home from other projects. In 2014, wildfire education. development in harm’s way is management appropriation has According to agency estimates, significant. In the West, 16 percent of grown to 51 percent of the Forest about 230 million acres of Forest forest lands open for home building Service’s budget, up from 17 percent Service and Department of Interior have been built on, which means in 1995.16 Because of rising firefight- lands are in need of treatment 84 percent (amounting to almost 13 ing costs—driven in large part by (mechanically or through prescribed million acres) is not yet developed. In the need to defend homes—agencies burning) because they are at risk from some states, the potential for further have to continually shift money from ecological damage from wildfires due development is high: for example, other departments (“fire transfers” to excessive fuel loads (75 million acres 91 percent of this forested land in or “fire borrowing”) to pay for the are at “high” risk, plus 156 million at Montana is not yet developed; 89 rising costs of fire suppression. For “moderate” risk). Yet, on average, less percent in Oregon; 84 percent in example, in fiscal year 2013 the Forest than three million acres are treated per www.thesolutionsjournal.org | March-April 2015 | Solutions | 57 U.S. Department of Agriculture Firefighters work to control the Springs Fire in the Boise National Forest, Idaho in August 2012. The financial and human costs of fighting wildfires have increased in recent years. year, which is insufficient to reduce landowner education efforts. Less building away from the most danger- risk significantly.19,20 than three percent of the 46 million ous, fire-prone lands. For better local A number of efforts are aimed at at-risk homes have been inspected planning to occur, several things must landowner education, including the by insurance companies for wildfire happen simultaneously.