Toss up in the Kentucky Governor's Race
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 23, 2015 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Toss Up in the Kentucky Governor’s Race Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s first general election poll of the race for Governor in Kentucky finds a very tight race. In a head-to-head election, 40% of voters choose Republican Matt Bevin over Democrat Jack Conway, who garners 38%. Bevin is viewed favorably 31/28, while Conway is viewed unfavorably 34/31- a plurality of the electorate has no opinion about each candidate. “The race for Governor in Kentucky is pretty up for grabs,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters aren’t that familiar with either candidate and as a result we’re seeing a lot more undecideds than we usually would at this stage of the race. This is one where the campaigns really will go a long way toward determining who wins rather than it being preordained from the start.” Republicans have leads of varying sizes in the down ballot races. In the race for Attorney General, Republican Whitney Westerfield leads Democrat Andy Beshear 41/36. Republican Steve Knipper has a 5-point advantage (47/42) over incumbent Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the race for Secretary of State. Incumbent Democrat Adam Edelen trails Republican challenger Mike Harmon by 6 points (33/39). GOP candidates lead for Treasurer and Agriculture Commissioner as well. Kentucky Senator and US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to experience negative approval ratings (32/54). Kentuckians still approve of US Senator and Presidential hopeful Rand Paul’s job performance 43/42. In theoretical races against Steve Beshear and Crit Luallen for one of Kentucky’s US Senate seats, Paul leads 49/39 and 51/37 respectively. “Rand Paul will be a clear favorite for reelection if the Senate ends up being what he runs for next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Even though Steve Beshear is the most popular politician in the state, that doesn’t translate to a Democrat winning a federal election in Kentucky.” Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,108 registered voters from June 18th-21st. The margin of error for this survey was +/-2.9%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who do not have landlines completed the survey over the Internet. Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: [email protected] Kentucky Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Q6 (Horse Race with Curtis Supporters Allocated Barack Obama’s job performance? to Second Choice) If you had to choose 33% between just Republican Matt Bevin and Approve .......................................................... Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote Disapprove...................................................... 60% for? Not sure .......................................................... 8% Matt Bevin....................................................... 40% Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jack Conway .................................................. 38% Steve Beshear job performance? Not sure .......................................................... 22% 43% Approve .......................................................... Q7 The candidates for Secretary of State are Disapprove...................................................... 35% Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and 22% Republican Steve Knipper. If the election was Not sure .......................................................... today, who would you vote for? Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Matt Bevin? Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42% 47% Favorable........................................................ 31% Steve Knipper ................................................. 12% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 40% Q8 The candidates for Attorney General are Not sure .......................................................... Democrat Andy Beshear and Republican Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Whitney Westerfield. If the election was today, of Jack Conway? who would you vote for? Favorable........................................................ 31% Andy Beshear ................................................. 36% Unfavorable .................................................... 34% Whitney Westerfield........................................ 41% Not sure .......................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 23% Q5 The candidates for Governor are Republican Q9 The candidates for State Treasurer are Matt Bevin, Democrat Jack Conway, and Democrat Rick Nelson and Republican Allison independent Drew Curtis. If the election was Ball. If the election was today, who would you today, who would you vote for? vote for? Matt Bevin....................................................... 38% Rick Nelson..................................................... 32% Jack Conway .................................................. 35% Allison Ball ...................................................... 41% Drew Curtis..................................................... 6% Not sure .......................................................... 26% Not sure .......................................................... 21% June 18-21, 2015 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,108 Kenucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q10 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat Q16 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Adam Edelen and Republican Mike Harmon. If Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Steve the election was today, who would you vote Beshear, who would you vote for? for? Rand Paul....................................................... 49% Adam Edelen .................................................. 33% Steve Beshear ................................................ 39% Mike Harmon .................................................. 39% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 27% Q17 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Q11 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Crit are Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann and Luallen, who would you vote for? Republican Ryan Quarles. If the election was 51% today, who would you vote for? Rand Paul....................................................... Crit Luallen...................................................... 37% Jean-Marie Lawson Spann ............................. 31% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Ryan Quarles.................................................. 40% Q18 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Not sure .......................................................... 29% Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch Steve Beshear, who would you vote for? McConnell’s job performance? Thomas Massie .............................................. 38% Approve .......................................................... 32% Steve Beshear ................................................ 43% Disapprove...................................................... 54% Not sure .......................................................... 19% Not sure .......................................................... 13% Q19 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Crit Paul’s job performance? Luallen, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 43% Thomas Massie .............................................. 37% Disapprove...................................................... 42% Crit Luallen...................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Not sure .......................................................... 28% Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for of Crit Luallen? Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 28% Barack Obama................................................ 39% Unfavorable .................................................... 15% Mitt Romney.................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 57% Someone else / Don't remember .................... 9% Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Thomas Massie? Favorable........................................................ 14% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Not sure .......................................................... 73% June 18-21, 2015 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,108 Kenucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Q24 If you are white, press 1. If African American, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat press 2. If other, press 3. conservative, or very conservative? White .............................................................. 88% Very liberal.....................................................